Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Finals at Ironman Raceway Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Schedule and How to Watch the Ironman National

The 2024 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship roars to its riveting conclusion this Saturday, August 24 at Ironman Raceway in Crawfordsville, Indiana. Nestled in the heart of the Hoosier State, this sprawling venue is renowned for its fast, flowing layout and infamous Ironman Leap, which always provide a breathtaking backdrop for high-stakes racing. The action kicks off with live qualifying coverage at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by opening ceremonies at 12:30 p.m. ET, the first 450 Class moto gate drop at 2:10 p.m. ET, and the second motos at 4:45 p.m E.T..

Every second of the event can be seen live on Peacock. For a full breakdown of the event schedule, check out the official event page. For those interested in betting, keep your eye on NXTbets for real-time odds and pricing updates throughout the season.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for the Ironman National

Top Picks and Bets

It’s hard to fathom just how dominant Chase Sexton has been this summer, but the numbers are staggering: six overall wins, 11 moto victories, and a peerless display of speed and racecraft each time he takes to the track. The ultra-consistent KTM rider has overcome every obstacle thrown his way, from so-so starts to untimely crashes, to put himself on the brink of a breakthrough first premier class title. Armed with a comfortable points cushion and a game tailor-made for Ironman’s fast, jump-laden circuit, Sexton is a worthy odds-on favorite at -143. It’s almost impossible to envision a scenario where he doesn’t get the job done on Saturday.

If there’s a rider with the tools to rain on Sexton’s impending parade, it’s unquestionably Hunter Lawrence. The Aussie has been on an absolute tear since debuting the 2025 Honda CRF450R, notching his first moto win of the season at Unadilla before pushing Sexton to the brink in a pair of pulse-pounding duels at Budds Creek. For Lawrence, a championship comeback may be a bridge too far, but you can bet the #96 has his sights firmly set on playing spoiler at Ironman. His +410 moneyline says it won’t be easy to deny Sexton, but if Lawrence can finally put all the pieces together for a full 60 minutes, an upset isn’t out of the question.

The most intriguing name among the top picks has to be Eli Tomac, the multi-time champ who made an impressive return to action with a solid seventh overall at Budds Creek. Despite sitting out the majority of the summer, Tomac reminded everyone of his otherworldly talent by running in the top five for the bulk of both motos, even briefly challenging for a podium spot. It was a remarkable display of speed and fitness from the veteran, and a warning shot that he’ll be a major factor in the looming SuperMotocross World Championship. At generous +522 odds, Tomac is a dark horse threat to spoil the Sexton/Lawrence party and even snatch an unlikely overall win if he can keep his incredible form rolling into Ironman.

Outsider Picks

After a strong third place performance at Budds Creek, Aaron Plessinger looks poised to once again play a starring role in the battle for the box at Ironman. Armed with unshakable confidence and ever-improving racecraft, Plessinger has been a model of consistency in recent rounds, notching four podiums in his last five starts. While his ultimate ceiling may be capped by the red-hot Sexton and Lawrence, AP’s strong starts and unshakable consistency make him a top-three threat and appealing value at +1586 odds.

Justin Cooper will be looking to put a difficult Budds Creek outing behind him and recapture the form that had him knocking on the door of an overall podium just a few short weeks ago. The Yamaha rider clearly has top-five speed, but costly mistakes and inconsistency have kept him from realizing his full potential in 2024. That said, Cooper is simply too talented to overlook, especially at a track like Ironman where his elite holeshot ability could be a major asset. Don’t be shocked to see the #32 in the mix for a moto podium or even an upset overall rostrum at +1988.

Rounding out the plus-money picks is Dylan Ferrandis. The mercurial Frenchman had a tough run at Budds Creek finishing 14th with motos of 37-7. The two-time MX champion has endured up-and-down results in the 450 ranks, but his 3rd place second moto at Unadilla served notice that the 2021 450MX champion is still a top-five outdoor threat. While his +2930 odds reflect how far he has to climb to enter the championship conversation, Ferrandis’ vast experience and well-rounded skillset make him an ideal candidate to play spoiler on any given moto. Keep an eye on the #14 as a potential podium disruptor at Ironman.

Expert Pick for the Ironman National

While the numbers suggest Chase Sexton merely needs to keep it on two wheels to secure this championship, don’t expect the KTM star to cruise to the crown at Ironman. Sexton’s blistering speed and unparalleled racecraft have him in a league of his own, able to overcome even the most daunting odds with trademark poise and precision. His ability to rise to the occasion was on full display at Budds Creek, and with a title on the line, look for Sexton to stamp his authority on the proceedings with one final statement ride. Bet against the #4 sealing the deal with yet another 1-1 sweep at your own risk – he’s been an unstoppable force of nature all summer long, and I see no reason why that dominance won’t continue on the sport’s biggest stage.

Head-to-Head Picks

In the headline matchup, Hunter Lawrence gets the slight nod over a resurgent Eli Tomac on the strength of his recent performances aboard the new Honda. Aaron Plessinger’s consistency gives him the edge over a mercurial Justin Cooper, while Dylan Ferrandis is a heavy favorite against Jason Anderson as he looks to finally seal the deal on an overall podium. Ferrandis’ elite speed and improving racecraft should be enough to overcome Anderson’s veteran guile.

Where to Bet on the Ironman National

Bets for the Ironman National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.

The moment of truth has arrived for the world’s finest motocross riders, as a season’s worth of blood, sweat and tears all comes down to an epic final stand in the Hoosier heartland. The tension is palpable and the stakes are at an all-time high as the 2024 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship prepares for its closing act, with Chase Sexton on the cusp of a career-defining maiden premier class crown. The rolling Ironman hills will demand 60 minutes of all-out effort and unshakable focus from all comers – but when the roost settles and the final checkered flag waves, a new champion will be crowned and legends will be forged. Strap in, hold on tight, and get ready for a white-knuckle conclusion to this unforgettable season.

21+ Please refer to Affiliated Operators’ T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.