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Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX High Point National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX High Point National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The Lawrence brothers put on a show for the ages at Thunder Valley, with Jett edging out Hunter in a thrilling second moto to secure the overall win. The dramatic 1-2 finish, with the siblings separated by a mere 1.2 seconds at the checkered flag, reignited Jett’s championship charge and propelled Hunter into the points lead. Behind them, Chase Sexton overcame adversity to limit the damage, while Justin Cooper’s perfect starts yielded a career-first 450 podium.

Now, as the series heads east to the legendary High Point Raceway for Round 4, the stage is set for another captivating chapter in this unfolding title fight. Will Jett carry his Thunder Valley triumph into Pennsylvania and close the gap further? Can Hunter, the new red plate holder, fend off his hard-charging rivals and extend his lead? And which of the title hopefuls will rise to the challenge of this storied venue? Buckle up, motocross fans, as we dive into the key storylines and tantalizing betting odds that promise to shape an unforgettable weekend of racing.

Bets for the High Point National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks.

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Schedule and How to Watch the High Point National

The High Point National, the fourth round of the 2024 series, is set to take place on Saturday, June 15th, at the scenic High Point Raceway in Mt. Morris, Pennsylvania. The first 450MX moto is scheduled to kick off at 2:15 PM EDT, followed by the second moto at 4:45 PM EDT.

Every second of the event can be seen live on Peacock. For a full breakdown of the event schedule, check out the official event page. For those interested in betting, keep your eye on NXTbets for real-time odds and pricing updates throughout the season.

Be sure to check out James Stewart’s The Inside Line betting podcast episode for strategic betting insights and opportunities on Highpoint.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for the High Point National

Top Picks and Bets

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Podium Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-558

$23.58

-5782

$20.35

Chase Sexton

+817

$183.40

-214

$29.35

Hunter Lawrence

+907

$201.40

+154

$50.80

All eyes will be on Jett Lawrence (-558 event winner, -5782 podium) as he seeks to build on his Thunder Valley bounceback. The defending champ showed true grit in Colorado, overcoming shoulder pain to outpace the field. Jett’s blistering speed makes him a threat anywhere, but he’s been particularly commanding in the rolling hills of High Point. His effortless whips and precision cornering have led to dominant overall wins here in both the 250 (2022) and 450 (2023) classes. If he stays rubber side down, look for Jett to clock more fast laps than anyone in Pennsylvania.

Nipping at Jett’s heels will be Red Bull KTM’s Chase Sexton (+817 event winner, -214 podium). Sexton showcased his grit and determination at Thunder Valley, overcoming an early crash in moto 2 to charge through the field. Even after hitting the dirt, Sexton laid down the fastest lap of the moto on his way to a hard-fought fifth overall. That relentless pace and unwavering focus are what make Sexton such a formidable contender. He’s shown a particular affinity for High Point, having notched a runner-up finish in 2022. He’s a strong bet for a podium finish at High Point.

Rounding out the top picks is Jett’s older brother and new points leader Hunter Lawrence (+907 event winner, +154 podium). Hunter has been a revelation in his 450 rookie season, logging a moto win in Colorado and five podium finishes in six motos. While he may not quite have Jett’s pure speed, his consistency and racecraft have been remarkable. If Hunter can dial in his starts and conquer the hills with that buttery-smooth style, a first career overall win could be within reach at High Point.

Outsider Picks

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Podium Odds

Payout on $20

Aaron Plessinger

+7307

$1,481.40

+339

$87.80

Dylan Ferrandis

+8233

$1,666.60

+641

$148.20

Justin Cooper

+8233

$1,666.60

+964

$212.80

If you’re seeking a dark horse pick with podium potential, give Aaron Plessinger (+7307 event winner, +339 podium) a serious look. A-Pless was on a mission at Thunder Valley, leading 14 laps in moto 2 before ultimately finishing third overall. The amiable Ohio native is always a threat when the dirt gets rough and rutted, as it often does at High Point. He logged a solid eighth overall here a year ago. If Plessinger can find that extra gear to match the pace of the top guns, he just might spring a surprise.

Speaking of riders to watch in the outsider category, keep an eye on Dylan Ferrandis (+8233 event winner, +641 podium). The Frenchman is still finding his footing after an injury-induced layoff, but his sixth overall in Colorado marked a step in the right direction. Ferrandis is known for his silky smooth style and ability to flow through tricky off-camber sections – skills that should serve him well on a technical track like High Point. With a bit more race fitness under his belt, Ferrandis could be poised to pounce.

Rounding out the outsider picks is Justin Cooper (+8233 event winner, +964 podium), the Star Racing Yamaha rider who’s been sneaky good to start the season. Cooper has shown flashes of brilliance, including a pair of third-place moto finishes in the last two rounds. He’s clearly getting more comfortable on the bigger bike. While an overall win might be a tall order, Cooper certainly has the talent to challenge for another podium if he puts all the pieces together.

Expert Pick for the High Point National

The rider to beat at High Point is Hunter Lawrence. While he may not be the odds-on favorite like his younger brother Jett, Hunter’s consistency and impressive performances in his rookie 450 season make him a top contender. He’s coming off a stellar showing at Thunder Valley, where he captured his first premier class moto win and just missed out on the overall victory. Hunter’s smooth, calculated riding style is well-suited to the technical challenges of High Point, and his ability to adapt to changing track conditions could be a key asset. With confidence on his side and a growing sense of belonging at the front of the 450 field, Hunter Lawrence is poised to break through for his first overall win. It won’t be a cakewalk with Jett Lawrence and Chase Sexton in the mix, but if Hunter can put all the pieces together, he has the speed and skill to come out on top.

Head-To-Head Picks

Matchup

Rider

Moneyline

Payout per $20

1

Hunter Lawrence 

-104

$39.23

Chase Sexton 

-128

$35.63

2

Justin Barcia 

-117

$37.09

Christian Craig 

-114

$37.54

3

Dylan Ferrandis 

-111

$38.02

Aaron Plessinger 

-120

$36.67

4

Jason Anderson 

-106

$38.87

Justin Cooper 

-125

$36.00

The head-to-head picks present some intriguing matchups to consider. In a clash of the title contenders, Chase Sexton gets the slight nod over Hunter Lawrence. On pure pace, these two are evenly matched, but Sexton’s experience and never-quit attitude could be the difference if it comes down to the wire. In the battle of veteran wildcards, Dylan Ferrandis is favored over Aaron Plessinger. If Ferrandis is close to 100%, his precision and consistency should win out. The Jason Anderson vs. Justin Cooper duel is a tough one to call – on their best days, both have the speed to vie for a podium. The edge goes to Anderson, but don’t count out Cooper if he gets a start.

2024 AMA Pro Motocross Championship Futures

Rider

Champion Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-19,900

$20.10

Chase Sexton

+1880

$396.00

Hunter Lawrence

+2093

$438.60

Eli Tomac

+6749

$1369.80

Cooper Webb

+10,538

$2127.60

 

The championship futures market has shifted after Thunder Valley, with Jett Lawrence‘s odds shortening to a commanding -19,900, implying a 95% chance of defending his title. The battle for second is heating up, as Chase Sexton (+1880) and Hunter Lawrence (+2093) have seen their odds improve thanks to strong performances. Eli Tomac (+6749) and Cooper Webb (+10,538) have drifted further back after the strong season starts from the favorites. As the series approaches its midpoint, the futures market paints Jett Lawrence as the clear favorite, with Sexton and Hunter Lawrence as his most credible challengers. However, the championship chase is far from over, and fortunes can change quickly in the unpredictable world of motocross.

Where to Bet on the High Point National

Bets for the High Point National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide

The stage is set for a thrilling battle at High Point as the top contenders look to stake their claim in the championship chase. Will Hunter Lawrence breakthrough for his first overall win, or will Jett Lawrence and Chase Sexton reassert their dominance? Could an outsider emerge from the pack to shake things up? With so many compelling storylines and hungry riders, it’s shaping up to be an unpredictable and action-packed afternoon in the keystone state. Grab a cold beverage, settle in, and get ready for some high-intensity motocross excitement.

 

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