Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Unadilla National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Schedule and How to Watch the Budds Creek National

The action unfolds this Saturday, August 17th, at Budds Creek Motocross Park in Mechanicsville, Maryland. The sprawling venue, located just an hour from the nation’s capital, is renowned for its diverse layout and iconic obstacles like the Budds Creek raceway. Practice and qualifying kick off at 10:30 a.m. ET, with the first 450 Class moto going off at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Every second of the event can be seen live on Peacock. For a full breakdown of the event schedule, check out the official event page. For those interested in betting, keep your eye on NXTbets for real-time odds and pricing updates throughout the season.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for the Budds Creek National

Top Picks and Bets

While it may feel like a broken record at this point, there’s simply no denying Chase Sexton‘s commanding position atop the championship standings and betting odds. The KTM superstar has been a locomotive in recent weeks, stringing together four consecutive overall wins to build a formidable 28-point lead as the series enters its final stanza. Sexton’s unshakable mental fortitude and peerless racecraft were on full display at Unadilla, as he shrugged off a rare moto defeat to storm back for yet another statement-making victory. At this point, betting against the #4 feels like an exercise in futility – with a game tailor-made for the fast and technical Budds Creek circuit, Sexton’s -142 odds only bolster his status as the unquestioned title favorite.

For Hunter Lawrence, Unadilla offered a much-needed glimmer of hope and a reason to believe that this championship fight is far from over. The second-generation star looked reborn aboard his factory Honda CRF450R, finally showcasing the elite speed and unflappable consistency that have been his trademarks. Lawrence’s razor-thin loss to Sexton in the overall standings served notice that he’s not content to go quietly into the night – and with just three rounds remaining, he’ll need to go on the attack early and often to chip away at that 28-point deficit. It’s an unenviable task, but Lawrence’s +515 moneyline proves he still has more than a puncher’s chance. If there’s one rider capable of keeping the #4 honest and stretching this title bout to the final bell, it’s the tenacious Aussie.

Sneaking into the top picks conversation after a revelatory ride at Unadilla is Dylan Ferrandis, who appears to have rediscovered his mojo at the perfect time. The Frenchman was electric in New Berlin, running in a podium position for the entirety of both motos and even making a last-lap charge for second in Moto 2. It was far and away Ferrandis’ most convincing performance since joining the Phoenix Honda squad, and a welcome shot in the arm for a rider who’s spent much of the season mired in the depths of the top ten. His +1279 odds still reflect the gap to Sexton and Lawrence at the top of the pecking order, but Ferrandis is too proven a commodity to overlook as a podium spoiler. If he can carry that Unadilla speed into Budds Creek, the #14 has the quick-strike ability to emerge as a true fly in the championship ointment.

Outsider Picks

Fresh off a confidence-boosting podium at Unadilla, Aaron Plessinger has all the tools to be a disruptive force at Budds Creek. His strong starts and ever-improving racecraft make him a serious podium threat at a track where the holeshot is often half the battle. If Plessinger can put together two consistent motos on Saturday, his first career 450 Class win at +1306 odds isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Don’t be shocked if AP finally turns promise to champagne in Maryland.

Justin Cooper continues to confound, following a string of promising rides with a lackluster sixth at Unadilla. The Yamaha rider clearly has top-five speed, but struggles to harness it on a week-to-week basis. That said, Cooper is too talented to overlook completely, especially at a track like Budds Creek where his strong start prowess could come in handy. He’s a boom-or-bust fantasy pick at +1393 odds, but one with significant upside.

Jason Anderson‘s quiet consistency has him knocking on the door of an overall podium, and Budds Creek could be the perfect opportunity for the Kawasaki veteran to break through. The former champion has been a model of steady improvement in recent rounds, notching four consecutive top-five finishes highlighted by a third overall at Washougal. Though Anderson hasn’t shown the pure speed to run with Sexton and Lawrence on a regular basis, his experience and mental toughness make him a valuable fantasy commodity at +1979 odds. If the leaders falter, don’t be surprised to see El Hombre pounce on the opening and secure an unlikely podium.

Expert Pick for the Budds Creek National

As the 2024 title fight enters its closing stanza, all eyes are on Chase Sexton to see if he can take another giant step toward securing the championship at Budds Creek. Quite simply, Sexton has looked unbeatable in recent weeks, his sublime blend of speed, racecraft, and unshakable composure putting him head and shoulders above the competition. Barring an uncharacteristic error or mechanical misfortune, the smart money is on the #4 to notch his fifth straight overall win on Saturday and move to the brink of a historic first premier class title.

Head-to-Head Picks

In the headline matchup, Chase Sexton’s recent domination makes him an overwhelming favorite against Hunter Lawrence despite the Aussie’s Unadilla resurgence. Dylan Ferrandis and Aaron Plessinger’s tight odds reflect their season-long parity, with the Frenchman’s Unadilla speed perhaps giving him a razor-thin edge. Jason Anderson gets the clear nod over Malcolm Stewart on the strength of his superior consistency, though both veterans are capable of podium fireworks on any given Saturday. Finally, Cooper Webb’s successful return from injury has him pegged as a slight favorite over privateer Phil Nicoletti in an intriguing clash of past champions.

Where to Bet on the Budds Creek National

Bets for the Budds Creek National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide. 

As the series heads to Budds Creek, the stakes are at an all-time high. With a championship on the line and a hungry pack of contenders eager to make their mark, Round 10 promises to be a defining moment in the 2024 season. It’s time to strap in, hold on tight, and get ready for an unforgettable afternoon of heart-pounding motocross action. The countdown is on – Budds Creek awaits.

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