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Best Bets: 2024 SuperMotocross Finals Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The bright lights of Las Vegas are set to illuminate the final chapter of the 2024 SuperMotocross Playoffs, as the sport’s elite riders prepare for a winner-take-all battle on the track. The first two rounds have delivered an action-packed prelude, setting the stage for a climactic showdown where championships will be decided, legacies will be forged, and the future of the sport will be shaped. With Jett Lawrence, Chase Sexton, and Eli Tomac leading the charge, and Hunter Lawrence, Ken Roczen, and Justin Cooper waiting in the wings, the stage is set for an unforgettable night of high-octane drama and heart-stopping competition.

Bets for the SMX Finals can be placed with our partner sportsbooks.

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Schedule and How to Watch SMX Finals

The SuperMotocross World Championship Final roars to life this Saturday, September 21, at The Strip at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The Friday Fan Zone opens at 11:00am PDT, featuring rider press conferences, autograph sessions, and the SMX Insider Podcast Mashup from 5:00pm to 6:00pm. On Saturday, the FanFest kicks off at 12:00pm PDT, with the main event starting at 7:00pm PDT. Qualifying will begin at 1:30pm PDT, followed by the pre-race show at 6:30pm PDT and the motos at 7:00pm PDT.

Every second of the event can be seen live on Peacock. For a full breakdown of the event schedule, check out the official event page. For those interested in betting, keep your eye on NXTbets for real-time odds and pricing updates throughout the season.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for SMX Finals

Top Picks and Bets

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-113

$37.70

Chase Sexton

+363

$92.60

Eli Tomac

+616

$143.20

Leading the charge into the Vegas finale is Jett Lawrence (-113), the defending SMX champion and the odds-on favorite to claim another crown. Despite facing a nine-point deficit in the standings, Jett’s unparalleled talent, explosive speed, and big-race pedigree make him the rider to beat on any track, in any conditions. The young Aussie phenom has a knack for finding an extra gear when the stakes are highest, and his ability to make the impossible look effortless is the stuff of legend. If Jett can harness that raw speed while minimizing mistakes, he has the potential to pull off a comeback for the ages and cement his status as the sport’s brightest star.

Aiming to spoil Jett’s party is the methodical and metronomic Chase Sexton (+363), who has been a model of consistency throughout the playoffs. The newly-crowned Pro Motocross champion has leveraged his tactical smarts, smooth riding style, and unrelenting fitness to keep the pressure on the Lawrence brothers, notching podium finishes in both rounds. Just one point off the championship lead, Sexton knows that a victory in Vegas would likely secure a historic SMX title to go with his 450MX and 450SX crowns. Expect the KTM ace to ride with surgical precision and unwavering focus as he chases a spot in the record books.

Rounding out the favorites is the indomitable Eli Tomac (+616), a multi-time champion who seems to be getting better with age. Tomac has been in vintage form during the playoffs, claiming a podium in Concord and mixing it up at the front in Fort Worth. His raw speed, aggressive riding style, and wealth of experience make him a formidable opponent, especially in a one-off, high-pressure scenario like the Vegas finale. If Tomac can summon that extra bit of magic and put together two flawless motos, he could pull off a surprise victory and add another chapter to his incredible legacy.

Outsider Picks

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Hunter Lawrence

+743

$168.60

Ken Roczen

+1253

$270.60

Justin Cooper

+3409

$701.80

Flying under the radar but flying high in the standings is Hunter Lawrence (+743), the elder Lawrence brother who has been the revelation of the playoffs. Hunter’s breakthrough overall win in Fort Worth, combined with his unshakable consistency and growing confidence, has vaulted him to the top of the championship chase. While the oddsmakers may have him pegged as an outsider, his recent performances suggest he’s more than capable of running with the sport’s elite. If Hunter can ride with the same blend of speed, smarts, and swagger that propelled him to victory in Texas, he could pull off a Vegas upset and claim an improbable SMX crown.

Another dark horse to keep an eye on is the crafty veteran Ken Roczen (+1253). The German rider has been quietly effective in the playoffs, hovering around the top five and picking his moments to push. While he may not have the outright speed of some of his rivals, Roczen’s experience, race craft, and mental toughness make him a threat to podium on any given weekend. The Vegas track, with its mix of high-speed straights and technical rhythm sections, could play to Roczen’s strengths. If he can find that extra spark and ride a mistake-free race, Roczen has the potential to disrupt the championship picture and prove that the old guard still has plenty of fight left.

Rounding out the outsiders is the ever-improving Justin Cooper (+3409), the Yamaha rider who has been steadily gaining momentum in his 450 rookie campaign. Cooper’s smooth, fluid riding style and unflappable demeanor have earned him a string of solid results, even if they’ve flown somewhat under the radar. The Las Vegas layout, with its fast, sweeping corners and long straightaways, should suit Cooper’s skill set well. While a championship may be out of reach, a career-best result and even a podium finish are well within the realm of possibility. If Cooper can put all the pieces together on the night and ride with the same quiet intensity he’s shown all year, he could be the surprise story of the Vegas finale.

Expert Pick for SMX Finals

In a championship this close, this unpredictable, picking a winner is an exercise in futility. But if there’s one rider who seems to possess that ineffable quality, that rare alchemy of speed, style, and sheer determination that defines a champion, it’s Jett Lawrence. The prodigious Aussie may be facing a points gap, but his otherworldly talent, unshakable self-belief, and penchant for the spectacular make him the man to beat when the lights shine brightest. Jett’s ability to find speed where others find the limit, to make the race-winning pass when it matters most, is the stuff of folklore. If he can harness that preternatural ability and ride with both controlled aggression and tactical wisdom, he has the potential to overcome the deficit, claim the Vegas victory, and secure his second straight SMX crown in jaw-dropping fashion.

Head-to-Head Picks

Matchup

Moneyline

Payout on $20

Eli Tomac

+137

$47.40

Chase Sexton

-185

$30.81

Ken Roczen

+143

$48.60

Hunter Lawrence

-193

$30.36

Aaron Plessinger

+109

$41.80

Justin Cooper

-145

$33.79

Cooper Webb

+140

$48.00

Jason Anderson

-189

$30.58

The clash between Chase Sexton and Eli Tomac pits the consistent title contender against the resurgent veteran, while the duel between Hunter Lawrence and Ken Roczen showcases a rising star taking on a wily veteran. The Justin Cooper vs. Aaron Plessinger matchup features two riders looking to end their seasons on a high note, while the battle between Jason Anderson and Cooper Webb promises fireworks between two fierce competitors.

Championship Winner Odds

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-102

$39.61

Chase Sexton

+351

$90.20

Hunter Lawrence

+614

$142.80

Eli Tomac

+666

$153.20

Ken Roczen

+1225

$265.00


The championship winner odds paint a picture of a title race that’s still wide open heading into the final round. Despite trailing in the standings, Jett Lawrence remains the odds-on favorite, a testament to his incredible talent and big-race pedigree. Chase Sexton‘s second-place odds reflect his consistency and championship-caliber form, while Hunter Lawrence‘s third-place standing is a nod to his breakthrough performances and growing confidence. Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen may be long shots, but their veteran savvy and ability to rise to the occasion make them intriguing dark horse picks. With so much talent at the top and so little separating the contenders, the stage is set for a championship battle that could come down to the final lap of the final moto.

Championship Winner Odds

Bets for SMX Finals can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide

After a season of twists, turns, and heart-stopping action, the SuperMotocross World Championship all comes down to this – one night, three riders, and a winner-take-all battle for the ages. Will Jett Lawrence defend his crown and cement his status as the sport’s brightest young star? Can Chase Sexton complete his championship trifecta and etch his name in the history books? Will Hunter Lawrence cap off a fairytale rookie season with an improbable title run? Or will a dark horse like Tomac or Roczen spoil the party and shock the world? No matter the outcome, one thing is certain – the SuperMotocross Finals in Las Vegas will be a race for the ages, a neon-soaked spectacle of speed, skill, and sheer guts. So buckle up, motocross fans – the road to glory ends here, and it’s going to be one hell of a ride!

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