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Best Bets: 2024 WSL Shiseido Tahiti Pro Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2024 WSL Shiseido Tahiti Pro Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The surf world is still buzzing from an electrifying Western Australia Margaret River Pro that saw huge upsets, clutch performances, and eighteen surfers fall victim to the dreaded Mid-Season Cut. In the end, it was Hawaii’s Gabriela Bryan claiming her maiden CT victory and local hero Jack Robinson once again proving he’s the best in the west.

Now, the Championship Tour charges on to the next stop: the famed reef pass of Teahupo’o for the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro. Renowned as one of the world’s heaviest and most feared waves, Chopes has a way of bringing the best out of the world’s bravest. With critical rankings implications, juicy betting lines, and the added intrigue of this event serving as the 2024 Olympic surfing venue, our expert analysis breaks down what to expect when the jerseys hit the water in the South Pacific.

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Schedule and How to Watch the 2024 WSL Tahiti Pro

The waiting period for the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro runs from May 22-31, 2024. The event will be held at the infamous reef pass of Teahupo’o on the southwest coast of Tahiti in French Polynesia. Known as “the heaviest wave in the world”, Teahupo’o is a daunting lefthander that detonates over a shallow coral reef, producing some of the scariest and most spectacular tubes on the planet. Expect the action to kick off at 7:30 AM local time (PST) each day, with the competition running as conditions allow during the event window.

Stay tuned for updates as the event approaches. To catch every thrilling moment live, simply head over to the WSL official site.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for 2024 Tahiti Pro – Men’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Men’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Jack Robinson

+483

$116.60

Griffin Colapinto

+716

$163.20

Cole Houshmand

+840

$188.00


Fresh off a statement win at Main Break, two-time event winner Jack Robinson (+483) enters the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro as the clear favorite. The West Oz powerhouse now sits at World No. 2 and looks poised to challenge Griffin Colapinto for the yellow jersey with another strong result in the heavy water of Teahupo’o. With a preternatural ability to position himself impossibly deep behind the curtain, Robinson already has a 2023 Tahiti Pro victory to his name. His high-risk, high-reward approach is custom-built for the wave’s unique demands and his current form suggests he’s the man to beat. If his Margaret River performance was any indication, Robinson’s combination of poise under pressure and next-level barrel riding prowess make him a solid bet at +483.

Despite a disappointing quarterfinal loss to event wildcard George Pittar in West Oz, current World No. 1 Griffin Colapinto (+716) remains in pole position heading into Tahiti. The Californian has been one of the most consistent performers in 2024, winning the MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal and finishing runner-up at Bells Beach. While he’s less experienced than some of his peers at Teahupo’o, his fearlessness, dynamic arsenal, and fitness should serve him well. With the yellow jersey on his back and a chance to solidify his lead, Colapinto will be fired up to make some noise. If the Tahitian barrels turn on and he finds a rhythm, he could be dangerous at +716.

Rounding out the top picks is rookie sensation Cole Houshmand (+840), who, despite a Round of 32 exit in Margaret River at the hands of Pittar, has shown flashes of brilliance in his debut CT season. The young Californian’s breakthrough victory at Bells Beach proved he has the talent to compete with the world’s best, and his stylish approach and barrel-riding potential could make him a dark horse contender at Teahupo’o. While Houshmand may not have the experience-edge of some of the other favorites, his youthful flair and total commitment make him an attractive option at +840. Look for Cole to thrive if the conditions stay on the accessible side.

Outsider Picks – Men’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Ethan Ewing

+891

$198.20

Gabriel Media

+999

$219.80

Kanoa Igarashi

+1163

$252.60


It’s hard to call World No. 4 Ethan Ewing (+891) a true outsider, but the current odds demand a closer look at the stylish natural footer. After a strong start to the 2024 season, the Australian hit a speed bump at his home event in Margaret River with a Round of 16 loss. However, Ewing has the talent and competitive composure to quickly bounce back, and his smooth rail work could be a major asset on Teahupo’o walls. If he can overcome any lingering disappointment from his early exit in West Oz, Ewing has the firepower to challenge for the podium in Tahiti. At almost 9-to-1 odds, he shapes as one of the value bets of the event.


Three-time world champion Gabriel Medina‘s (+999) 2024 campaign has been a rollercoaster ride, with the Brazilian showing flashes of brilliance, like his 3rd place finish in Portugal, mixed with surprising early exits. Currently sitting at No. 19 in the rankings after narrowly avoiding the Mid-season Cut, Medina will be looking to Teahupo’o to reignite his season. His track record at the Tahitian reef pass, which includes victories in 2014 and 2018, suggests he could be a major threat if he rediscovers his best form. The enigmatic veteran will be supremely motivated to silence his doubters and kickstart his quest for a spot in the WSL Finals.

Kanoa Igarashi (+1163) is another intriguing option for bettors searching for a long-odds play. The Olympic silver medalist has shown glimpses of his potential in 2024, highlighted by a runner-up finish at Sunset Beach, but has struggled to find consistency. However, Igarashi’s backhand tube-riding skills and competitive grit make him a threat to break through at Teahupo’o. If the waves cooperate during the event window, don’t be surprised to see Igarashi outperform his generous odds and vault into the WSL Final 5 conversation with a strong result in Tahiti.

Expert Pick for Tahiti Pro – Men’s Division

Griffin Colapinto is our pick to claim victory at the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro. The current World No. 1 has demonstrated remarkable consistency throughout the 2024 season, and his competitive drive, coupled with his ever-expanding skill set, make him a force to be reckoned with at Teahupo’o. Expect Colapinto to bounce back from his quarterfinal exit in Margaret River with a powerful performance in the Tahitian barrels, solidifying his spot atop the rankings and sending a message to his rivals that he’s the top dog in the title race.

2024 WSL Futures Update – Men’s Division

Surfer

Champion

Payout on $20

Top 5

Payout on $20

Jack Robinson

+111

$42.20

-19900

$20.10

Griffin Colapinto

+185

$57.00

-19900

$20.10

Ethan Ewing

+675

$155.00

-988

$22.02

John John Florence

+825

$185.00

-339

$25.90

Cole Houshmand

+2310

$482.00

+184

$56.80


As we approach the halfway mark of the 2024 Championship Tour, the men’s futures market is heating up. Jack Robinson (+111) has leapfrogged Griffin Colapinto (+185) as the odds-on favorite to claim his first World Title, with Ethan Ewing (+675) and John John Florence (+825) still very much in the mix. Rising star Cole Houshmand (+2310) remains a dark horse contender. With Robinson, Colapinto, and Ewing all heavily favored to finish in the Top 5, the race for the remaining spots promises to be a dogfight. Expect the title picture to crystallize further after the upcoming Tahiti Pro.

Best Bets and Picks for the 2024 Tahiti Pro – Women’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Women’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Caroline Marks

+306

$81.20

Caitlin Simmers

+344

$88.80

Molly Picklum

+549

$129.80


Currently ranked #6 in the world, Caroline Marks (+306)  has been a consistent threat at every stop this season. With her strong performances in waves of consequence over the years, Marks has the skills to make a serious run in Tahiti. Her aggressive approach and fearless charging could see her break through for her first victory of 2024 if the conditions get serious. At +306, she’s a very solid bet to claim her maiden Teahupo’o title.

Caitlin Simmers (+344), the current World #1 has been in sizzling form all year, showcasing a level of poise and competitive maturity well beyond her years. While Simmers doesn’t have as much experience in Tahiti as some of her rivals, her ability to rise to any occasion and perform under pressure has been remarkable. If the waves are a touch more user-friendly, the young Californian’s electric blend of power and progression could prove unstoppable. She’s a great bet at +344 to extend her ratings lead.

Last among the top picks, and one of the brightest young stars on the CT, Molly Picklum (+549) has been on a great run on the CT in 2024. The powerful Australian already has a solid track record in powerful reef break conditions and looks primed for a breakout result in Tahiti. With her strong rail game, explosive attack, and utter commitment, Picklum has the tools to take down the established veterans. At generous +549 odds, she’s an enticing bet to claim the win.

Outsider Picks – Women’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Tyler Wright

+558

$131.60

Bettylou Sakura Johnson

+655

$151.00

Johanne Defay

+667

$153.40


Tyler Wright (+558), the 2x World Champion, is always a threat in the heavy stuff and she’ll be fired up to improve on her current #8 ranking. Wright has ample experience at Teahupo’o and her power, poise, and tactical savvy make her a certified danger-woman at slightly longer odds. If the forecast delivers solid swell, look for T-Wright to draw on her veteran moxie and make a deep run at tasty +558 odds.

Hawaiian prodigy Bettylou Sakura Johnson (+655) has been one of the revelations of the 2024 season, announcing her arrival as a bonafide CT star. With her stunning barrel riding technique, irrepressible energy, and go-for-broke flair, BSJ has the kind of magnetic style that’s perfect for Teahupo’o. While a victory might be a touch too much to ask at this early stage in her career, she’s a live outsider at +655 to make some serious noise.

Finally, sitting at #2 in the world, Johanne Defay (+667) is enjoying one of the finest seasons of her career. With an intimate knowledge of the Teahupo’o reef from her many years on Tour, Defay is a real threat to break through for her first Tahiti victory. The Reunion Island native’s searing rail carves and world-class barrel riding skills make her a great value bet at +667 if the waves turn on.

Expert Pick for the 2024 Tahiti Pro – Women’s Division

When it comes to picking a winner for the women at the 2024 Tahiti Pro, Caroline Marks at +306 gets the nod. The Floridian has been in blistering form all season and looks primed to seal the deal on her first victory of the year. With her blend of sheer power, progressive flair, and big-wave bravery, Marks has all the elements to excel if the forecast delivers classic Teahupo’o conditions.

While current world #1 Caitlin Simmers is an obvious danger-woman and two-time World Champ Tyler Wright can never be discounted in the heavy water, Marks’ combination of youthful hunger and veteran savvy sets her apart. If Caroline can carry her momentum from the Australian leg and summon her very best surfing, she’ll be tough to beat when the final siren sounds. Expect the 21-year-old to stamp her authority on the 2024 Title race with a statement-making victory in Tahiti.

2024 WSL Futures Update – Women’s Division

Surfer

Champion

Payout on $20

Top 5

Payout on $20

Caitlin Simmers

-110

$38.18

-19900

$20.10

Caroline Marks

+402

$100.40

-295

$26.78

Johanne Defay

+440

$108.00

-8303

$20.24

Molly Picklum

+498

$119.60

-1106

$21.81

Bettylou Sakura Johnson

+1415

$303.00

+104

$40.80


The 2024 WSL Championship Tour is reaching a critical juncture, and the futures market reflects the growing excitement. Caitlin Simmers (-110) remains the odds-on favorite to claim her maiden World Title, with Caroline Marks (+402) and Johanne Defay (+440) hot on her heels. Molly Picklum (+498) and Bettylou Sakura Johnson (+1415) round out the top contenders. With Simmers and Marks both heavily favored to finish in the Top 5, the battle for the remaining spots looks set to go down to the wire.

Where to Bet on the Shiseido Tahiti Pro 2024

If you’re looking to get in on the action, NXTbets is here to elevate your betting experience with exclusive offers from our partnered sportsbooks. Dive into our detailed analyses and expert tips with the WSL Championship Tour Betting Guide, tailored to arm you with all the insights needed for informed betting decisions.

As the world’s best surfers descend on the fabled reef of Teahupo’o for the 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With critical rankings points on the line, a chance to lock in 2024 Olympic berths, and one of surfing’s most prestigious titles up for grabs, expect an unparalleled display of barrel-riding bravado and high-octane drama in the South Pacific.

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