Consecutive weekends of premier motorbike racing is a welcome sight for petrolheads, and we come bearing exciting news. Somebody has finally ended Marc Marquez’s outrageous win streak, and it was none other than his younger brother Alex, last weekend in Catalonia. Despite the loss, the markets still fancy Marc, who heads the MotoGP San Marino pre-event odds ahead of his sibling and his teammate. Learn about prospects for this weekend as riders touch down on the Adriatic for round 16 of the Championship.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Contestants congregate at the Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli on Friday, September 12 for opening day of San Marino GP weekend. Riders will battle the clock on Friday in the practice sessions, before shifting gears for qualifying and the sprint on Saturday. All eyes are on the grand prize which is up for grabs on September 14, starting at 8:00 am EDT. Follow all the qualifying and racing action throughout the event on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP San Marino
Grand Prix Winner Odds
Ducati star Marc Marquez touches down in Italy with a 182-point buffer at the top of the Riders’ Championship. “The Ant of Cervera” lines up as the defending champion at this circuit and is fresh off his 13th podium of the campaign. Marquez is the winningest rider this season and holds the all-time win record at this venue, with five titles. He ended a seven-race win streak last weekend, after being toppled by his younger brother. Alex Marquez earned his second MotoGP career victory, ending a shaky run that included a DNF, a 10th, and a 14th-place return. Alex has typically struggled on this asphalt, producing a best return of sixth on his last visit.
Ducati has enjoyed its trips to the Adriatic in recent years, prevailing in three of the last seven. Francesco Bagnaia has contributed two victories to the cause in the last four years and finished second last time out. It looks like a long shot, as Pecco hasn’t stood on the rostrum since Germany. Consistency seems to be an issue for Maco Bezzecchi, who has three top-three finishes to his name in the last five starts and two DNFs. The KTM’s have started to find their rhythm late in the season, courtesy of Pedro Acosta, who’s posted four consecutive top fives, including two podiums.
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Player
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Alex Marquez
+400
$100.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+900
$200.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+1100
$240.00
Enea Bastianini
+1400
$300.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Pedro Acosta
+1600
$340.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Franco Morbidelli
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1,000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1,000.00
Jorge Martin
+5900
$1,200.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+5900
$1,200.00
Pol Espargaro
+9900
$2,000.00
Joan Mir
+9900
$2,000.00
Maverick Vinales
+9900
$2,000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+9900
$2,000.00
Luca Marini
+9900
$2,000.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2,000.00
Raul Fernandez
+9900
$2,000.00
Ai Ogura
+9900
$2,000.00
Alex Rins
+24900
$5,000.00
Aleix Espargaro
+49900
$10,000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15,000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15,000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+74900
$15,000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15,000.00
Expert Pick
We’re sticking with the tried and tested for MotoGP San Marino. Marc Marquez has barely put a foot wrong this season, and while he did lose out to his brother last weekend, he’s entered Victory Lane seven times in the previous eight races. His dominance translates into short odds of -250, which potentially pays $28.00 on a $20 bet.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Francesco Bagnaia finished second to Marc Marquez here last year. This time around, they’re on the same team. Can Ducati produce the winning bike, and will Pecco exact his revenge against the Riders’ Championship leader? Or does Alex Marquez have other plans for his older rivals? See how the checkered flag drops on Sunday in Italy.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Red Bull Grand Prix of San Marino. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Pedro Acosta was declared the winner of the opening Sprint at the Thailand GP in Buriram after race stewards penalized Marc Márquez one position for forcing Acosta wide at the final corner. Márquez accepted the one-place drop in parc fermé following steward Simon Crafar’s decision, promoting Acosta to victory on the official results — Acosta’s first MotoGP win in any format, achieved at the season opener of his third campaign.
Marco Bezzecchi had dominated the weekend, topping practice sessions and setting a practice lap record of 1:28.526 before taking pole with a 1:28.652 in qualifying. He suffered two crashes over the weekend, including a heavy Q2 tumble that deployed his airbag and left him sore, and he crashed from the lead in the Sprint while attempting to open a gap; that incident removed him from contention and left Acosta and Márquez to duel for victory.
Acosta executed a decisive pass on the penultimate lap and Márquez lunged back at the final corner; after a stewards’ review the late lunge was judged to have forced Acosta wide, triggering Márquez’s demotion. Raúl Fernández finished third on the road, roughly half a second behind the leading pair, while Ai Ogura recovered to fourth. Jorge Martín crossed fifth on the road but faced an eight-second sanction for a suspected tire-pressure infringement that could alter the official finishing order; that penalty remained under review at the time of reporting, and Ducati team boss Davide Tardozzi called the sanction “unfair.” The 13-lap Buriram Sprint produced a landmark early-season victory for Acosta after an eventful qualifying and sprint day.
Pedro Acosta left Buriram having narrowed a clear development gap but still chasing the outright pace of Aprilia and Ducati. The 2026 RC16 was “doing no strange things,” he said, feeling more natural with reduced vibration and improved front-end feel. Acosta completed trouble-free 24–25-lap race simulations showing strong tire preservation and finished the two-day test as the fastest KTM in sixth, roughly 0.3s off Marco Bezzecchi’s benchmark. KTM’s factory and Tech3 teams said they had finalized their 2026 package and felt prepared for the Thai season opener.
Aprilia and Ducati underlined their status as the yardsticks at Buriram. Bezzecchi topped the test with a record 1’28.668 lap and strong long-run form (a 20-lap average around 1’30.4). Four Aprilias featured high on the timesheets, and Trackhouse-backed Ai Ogura was second, just 0.097s adrift. Ducati also showed competitive pace, with Marc Márquez, Francesco Bagnaia, and Álex Márquez filling the next positions. The older Márquez brother continued to post leading Sunday qualifying-simulation times despite crashes and illness.
Acosta and KTM framed the progress as tangible but incomplete, and praised Aprilia and Ducati’s race simulations as “awesome.” They warned that rivals’ exceptional simulations make preparation and starting position decisive, and suggested KTM could realistically start the season as the third-best manufacturer. With pre-season testing wrapped at Buriram, teams now turn to the Thai GP next weekend, where the first pole, Tissot Sprint, and race win of the season will be decided.
Toprak Razgatlioglu’s adaptation to the Yamaha M1 has been hampered by rear-tyre issues; he called the Michelin tyres the “real problem” slowing his switch from World Superbikes, highlighting rear grip and acceleration as his main challenges after Brazil. He said the M1’s greater power, aerodynamics and electronics make familiar tracks feel different. Razgatlioglu has improved since Thailand but is still searching for a narrow performance window on the rear tyre and warned that Michelin’s use of a stiffer carcass in Thailand and Brazil, and the planned reversion to the standard carcass for the US GP at COTA, will complicate his learning. Tyre management and suspension/setup choices will be central at Austin, where bumps and a physical first sector may require a softer setup to protect rear grip.
Results in the opening rounds underlined those difficulties: Razgatlioglu failed to score points in Thailand and Brazil, with best race finishes of 17th in both grands prix. He crashed in the Buriram sprint, finished 18th in the Goiânia sprint and was 17th in the Brazilian GP after reaching Q2 and qualifying 12th. He said the sequence of results left him “really down” after Saturday in Brazil. Razgatlioglu has prior experience at COTA — he first raced the circuit in the Red Bull Rookies Cup in 2013 and rode it last year on BMW’s M1000RR — but he said the M1 changes how the track feels.
Support staff and industry figures say the start is technically understandable and that he is improving. Coach Sylvain Guintoli said Razgatlioglu was “getting the hang of” the Yamaha M1 after pre-qualifying at COTA: Razgatlioglu posted a 2:02.373 lap to finish 18th overall and was the third-fastest Yamaha behind Fabio Quartararo and Jack Miller, while Ducati’s Marc Márquez topped the session with a 2:00.927. Guintoli pointed to Friday race simulations as evidence Razgatlioglu is learning to manage throttle inputs, “hook the bike up” and improve traction, while stressing that track temperature and overall tyre grip remain key variables. Ducati test rider Michele Pirro said Razgatlioglu’s difficult start “makes me smile,” noting the switch to the V4 YZR‑M1 requires learning ride‑height devices, increased aerodynamics and running Michelins instead of Pirellis. Pirro warned that being seven to eight tenths off the pace effectively places a rider at the back and that gains often come in small fractions — sometimes half a tenth per corner — but expressed confidence Razgatlioglu can improve as he gains experience with the bike, the Michelin tyres and MotoGP fine‑tuning.
Ducati has framed Aprilia’s early 2026 surge as a problem it must fix through technical upgrades rather than rider heroics, blaming tyre and chassis factors for the gap while privately questioning whether Aprilia’s bike has been overhyped. Ducati figures including Gigi Dall’Igna and Davide Tardozzi have privately suggested Aprilia’s RS‑GP26 may have been overplayed, while the factory has publicly conceded it started the season behind Aprilia. Ducati engineers said Michelin’s new, harder rear‑tyre casing used in the opening rounds “greatly benefited” Aprilia and that the stiffer rear casings introduced for the year, together with particular track and temperature conditions, amplified Aprilia’s advantage.
The competitive picture was underlined at Goiânia, where Marco Bezzecchi led an Aprilia one‑two with teammate Jorge Martin and extended a winning streak to four straight premier‑class victories, leaving Bezzecchi 11 points clear of Martin in the standings. The Brazilian weekend also exposed specific weaknesses in the Ducati Desmosedici GP26: the track surface began breaking up and caught Marc Márquez wide at Turn 12, repeatedly highlighting rear‑stability issues that Ducati spent the weekend working on, including tail and rear‑end changes. Ducati figures noted Márquez could not match the Aprilias’ race pace despite winning the Sprint, Francesco Bagnaia crashed from 11th and sits well down the standings, and Fabio Di Giannantonio — the day’s leading Ducati — and others pointed to Aprilia’s superior front‑end stability allowing higher corner speed and stronger exits when temperatures rise and grip falls.
Ducati has outlined a rapid response plan focused on technical development. Team managers signalled upgrades and tests at Jerez (April 24–26) and the in‑season test the following Monday to gather full‑day data, with an immediate priority on rear‑end stability fixes and aerodynamic steps reported during private testing. Davide Tardozzi said the squad cannot keep depending on Marc Márquez to cover the bike’s shortcomings and indicated Ducati aims to be more competitive from Austin onward, using the Jerez test and the subsequent development window to validate changes and close the gap to Aprilia.
Best Bets: 2025 MotoGP San Marino Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Consecutive weekends of premier motorbike racing is a welcome sight for petrolheads, and we come bearing exciting news. Somebody has finally ended Marc Marquez’s outrageous win streak, and it was none other than his younger brother Alex, last weekend in Catalonia. Despite the loss, the markets still fancy Marc, who heads the MotoGP San Marino pre-event odds ahead of his sibling and his teammate. Learn about prospects for this weekend as riders touch down on the Adriatic for round 16 of the Championship.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the San Marino MotoGP
Contestants congregate at the Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli on Friday, September 12 for opening day of San Marino GP weekend. Riders will battle the clock on Friday in the practice sessions, before shifting gears for qualifying and the sprint on Saturday. All eyes are on the grand prize which is up for grabs on September 14, starting at 8:00 am EDT. Follow all the qualifying and racing action throughout the event on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP San Marino
Grand Prix Winner Odds
Ducati star Marc Marquez touches down in Italy with a 182-point buffer at the top of the Riders’ Championship. “The Ant of Cervera” lines up as the defending champion at this circuit and is fresh off his 13th podium of the campaign. Marquez is the winningest rider this season and holds the all-time win record at this venue, with five titles. He ended a seven-race win streak last weekend, after being toppled by his younger brother. Alex Marquez earned his second MotoGP career victory, ending a shaky run that included a DNF, a 10th, and a 14th-place return. Alex has typically struggled on this asphalt, producing a best return of sixth on his last visit.
Ducati has enjoyed its trips to the Adriatic in recent years, prevailing in three of the last seven. Francesco Bagnaia has contributed two victories to the cause in the last four years and finished second last time out. It looks like a long shot, as Pecco hasn’t stood on the rostrum since Germany. Consistency seems to be an issue for Maco Bezzecchi, who has three top-three finishes to his name in the last five starts and two DNFs. The KTM’s have started to find their rhythm late in the season, courtesy of Pedro Acosta, who’s posted four consecutive top fives, including two podiums.
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Expert Pick
We’re sticking with the tried and tested for MotoGP San Marino. Marc Marquez has barely put a foot wrong this season, and while he did lose out to his brother last weekend, he’s entered Victory Lane seven times in the previous eight races. His dominance translates into short odds of -250, which potentially pays $28.00 on a $20 bet.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Francesco Bagnaia finished second to Marc Marquez here last year. This time around, they’re on the same team. Can Ducati produce the winning bike, and will Pecco exact his revenge against the Riders’ Championship leader? Or does Alex Marquez have other plans for his older rivals? See how the checkered flag drops on Sunday in Italy.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Red Bull Grand Prix of San Marino. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Related Posts
Stewards demote Marquez for forcing Acosta wide
Pedro Acosta was declared the winner of the opening Sprint at the Thailand GP in Buriram after race stewards penalized Marc Márquez one position for forcing Acosta wide at the final corner. Márquez accepted the one-place drop in parc fermé following steward Simon Crafar’s decision, promoting Acosta to victory on the official results — Acosta’s first MotoGP win in any format, achieved at the season opener of his third campaign.
Marco Bezzecchi had dominated the weekend, topping practice sessions and setting a practice lap record of 1:28.526 before taking pole with a 1:28.652 in qualifying. He suffered two crashes over the weekend, including a heavy Q2 tumble that deployed his airbag and left him sore, and he crashed from the lead in the Sprint while attempting to open a gap; that incident removed him from contention and left Acosta and Márquez to duel for victory.
Acosta executed a decisive pass on the penultimate lap and Márquez lunged back at the final corner; after a stewards’ review the late lunge was judged to have forced Acosta wide, triggering Márquez’s demotion. Raúl Fernández finished third on the road, roughly half a second behind the leading pair, while Ai Ogura recovered to fourth. Jorge Martín crossed fifth on the road but faced an eight-second sanction for a suspected tire-pressure infringement that could alter the official finishing order; that penalty remained under review at the time of reporting, and Ducati team boss Davide Tardozzi called the sanction “unfair.” The 13-lap Buriram Sprint produced a landmark early-season victory for Acosta after an eventful qualifying and sprint day.
Bezzecchi Sets Buriram Record as Aprilia, Ogura Lead Pace
Pedro Acosta left Buriram having narrowed a clear development gap but still chasing the outright pace of Aprilia and Ducati. The 2026 RC16 was “doing no strange things,” he said, feeling more natural with reduced vibration and improved front-end feel. Acosta completed trouble-free 24–25-lap race simulations showing strong tire preservation and finished the two-day test as the fastest KTM in sixth, roughly 0.3s off Marco Bezzecchi’s benchmark. KTM’s factory and Tech3 teams said they had finalized their 2026 package and felt prepared for the Thai season opener.
Aprilia and Ducati underlined their status as the yardsticks at Buriram. Bezzecchi topped the test with a record 1’28.668 lap and strong long-run form (a 20-lap average around 1’30.4). Four Aprilias featured high on the timesheets, and Trackhouse-backed Ai Ogura was second, just 0.097s adrift. Ducati also showed competitive pace, with Marc Márquez, Francesco Bagnaia, and Álex Márquez filling the next positions. The older Márquez brother continued to post leading Sunday qualifying-simulation times despite crashes and illness.
Acosta and KTM framed the progress as tangible but incomplete, and praised Aprilia and Ducati’s race simulations as “awesome.” They warned that rivals’ exceptional simulations make preparation and starting position decisive, and suggested KTM could realistically start the season as the third-best manufacturer. With pre-season testing wrapped at Buriram, teams now turn to the Thai GP next weekend, where the first pole, Tissot Sprint, and race win of the season will be decided.
Michelin carcass switch hinders Razgatlioglu at COTA
Toprak Razgatlioglu’s adaptation to the Yamaha M1 has been hampered by rear-tyre issues; he called the Michelin tyres the “real problem” slowing his switch from World Superbikes, highlighting rear grip and acceleration as his main challenges after Brazil. He said the M1’s greater power, aerodynamics and electronics make familiar tracks feel different. Razgatlioglu has improved since Thailand but is still searching for a narrow performance window on the rear tyre and warned that Michelin’s use of a stiffer carcass in Thailand and Brazil, and the planned reversion to the standard carcass for the US GP at COTA, will complicate his learning. Tyre management and suspension/setup choices will be central at Austin, where bumps and a physical first sector may require a softer setup to protect rear grip.
Results in the opening rounds underlined those difficulties: Razgatlioglu failed to score points in Thailand and Brazil, with best race finishes of 17th in both grands prix. He crashed in the Buriram sprint, finished 18th in the Goiânia sprint and was 17th in the Brazilian GP after reaching Q2 and qualifying 12th. He said the sequence of results left him “really down” after Saturday in Brazil. Razgatlioglu has prior experience at COTA — he first raced the circuit in the Red Bull Rookies Cup in 2013 and rode it last year on BMW’s M1000RR — but he said the M1 changes how the track feels.
Support staff and industry figures say the start is technically understandable and that he is improving. Coach Sylvain Guintoli said Razgatlioglu was “getting the hang of” the Yamaha M1 after pre-qualifying at COTA: Razgatlioglu posted a 2:02.373 lap to finish 18th overall and was the third-fastest Yamaha behind Fabio Quartararo and Jack Miller, while Ducati’s Marc Márquez topped the session with a 2:00.927. Guintoli pointed to Friday race simulations as evidence Razgatlioglu is learning to manage throttle inputs, “hook the bike up” and improve traction, while stressing that track temperature and overall tyre grip remain key variables. Ducati test rider Michele Pirro said Razgatlioglu’s difficult start “makes me smile,” noting the switch to the V4 YZR‑M1 requires learning ride‑height devices, increased aerodynamics and running Michelins instead of Pirellis. Pirro warned that being seven to eight tenths off the pace effectively places a rider at the back and that gains often come in small fractions — sometimes half a tenth per corner — but expressed confidence Razgatlioglu can improve as he gains experience with the bike, the Michelin tyres and MotoGP fine‑tuning.
Ducati schedules Jerez test to fix rear stability
Ducati has framed Aprilia’s early 2026 surge as a problem it must fix through technical upgrades rather than rider heroics, blaming tyre and chassis factors for the gap while privately questioning whether Aprilia’s bike has been overhyped. Ducati figures including Gigi Dall’Igna and Davide Tardozzi have privately suggested Aprilia’s RS‑GP26 may have been overplayed, while the factory has publicly conceded it started the season behind Aprilia. Ducati engineers said Michelin’s new, harder rear‑tyre casing used in the opening rounds “greatly benefited” Aprilia and that the stiffer rear casings introduced for the year, together with particular track and temperature conditions, amplified Aprilia’s advantage.
The competitive picture was underlined at Goiânia, where Marco Bezzecchi led an Aprilia one‑two with teammate Jorge Martin and extended a winning streak to four straight premier‑class victories, leaving Bezzecchi 11 points clear of Martin in the standings. The Brazilian weekend also exposed specific weaknesses in the Ducati Desmosedici GP26: the track surface began breaking up and caught Marc Márquez wide at Turn 12, repeatedly highlighting rear‑stability issues that Ducati spent the weekend working on, including tail and rear‑end changes. Ducati figures noted Márquez could not match the Aprilias’ race pace despite winning the Sprint, Francesco Bagnaia crashed from 11th and sits well down the standings, and Fabio Di Giannantonio — the day’s leading Ducati — and others pointed to Aprilia’s superior front‑end stability allowing higher corner speed and stronger exits when temperatures rise and grip falls.
Ducati has outlined a rapid response plan focused on technical development. Team managers signalled upgrades and tests at Jerez (April 24–26) and the in‑season test the following Monday to gather full‑day data, with an immediate priority on rear‑end stability fixes and aerodynamic steps reported during private testing. Davide Tardozzi said the squad cannot keep depending on Marc Márquez to cover the bike’s shortcomings and indicated Ducati aims to be more competitive from Austin onward, using the Jerez test and the subsequent development window to validate changes and close the gap to Aprilia.