NXTbets Inc

Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross RedBud National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross RedBud National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The dirt bikes are back after a one-week hiatus and are ready for duty at RedBud National this Saturday. Jettson Lawrence rides into Michigan as the pre-event odds favorite, but his brother Hunter got the better of him last time out. Besides the Lawrence dynasty, there is plenty of value to be had in the place betting and matchup betting markets ahead of round five of the 2026 Pro Motocross Championship. Join us as we uncover the contenders.

Bets for the MX RedBud National can be placed with our partner sportsbooks.

In addition to traditional sports betting, the Motocross Championship offers a Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) option for the series, available exclusively on Underdog. DFS offers a new way for fans to engage with the sport, allowing them to make real money picks in a thrilling Pick’Em format. This expanding category within legal sports wagering enables Motocross enthusiasts in 30 states, including California, Utah, and Texas, where traditional sports betting is currently prohibited, to participate in the action.

operator logo
DraftKings
Spend $5+ on SMX, Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly!
operator logo
FanDuel
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
operator logo
BetMGM
GET UP TO $1,500 PAID BACK IN BONUS BETS
operator logo
Caesars
Use Code SUPERMOTODYW and Bet $1, Double Your Winnings

Schedule and How to Watch MX RedBud National

Let the fireworks begin. The Pro Motocross contingent is celebrating July 4th in style with a carnival of racing coming your way from RedBud National in Buchanan. Another full day of competition is on the cards, starting with qualifying before lunch and racing to come in the late afternoon. Riders line up for Moto #1 at 3:15 pm EDT and close out Independence Day with Moto #2 at 5:30 pm local time. Follow round five of the 2026 Championship live on Peacock, and catch the latest results on the dedicatedRedBud event page.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Live SMX Odds

Best Bets & Odds for 450 Class Motocross RedBud

Moto #1 Holeshot Odds

We are four rounds and eight races into the 2026 Pro Motocross Championship, and the Lawrence brothers have scrapped all but two holeshots. The duo each have three holeshots under the bike, but Jett Lawrence is the dominant Moto #1 holeshotter. He’s entered the first corner ahead of the field in two Moto #1 races this year, which is why he lines up as the favorite to repeat the feat in the opening race this week in Michigan.

Jett’s older brother Hunter Lawrence also has three holeshots to his name. However, he’s only achieved one in a Moto #1 race to date. That accomplishment arrived in the previous round, where he incidentally grabbed a clean sweep in this department. The only remaining riders to enter the first corner ahead of the pack in 2026 are Mikkel Haarup and Cooper Webb, who enter as longshots, priced over +4000.

swipe to see more

Rider
Holeshot Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+213
$62.60
Hunter Lawrence
+264
$72.80
Haiden Deegan
+484
$116.80
Jorge Prado
+966
$213.20
RJ Hampshire
+1249
$269.80
Garrett Marchbanks
+1641
$348.20
Aaron Plessinger
+1771
$374.20
Tony Cairoli
+1847
$389.40
Dylan Ferrandis
+3122
$644.40
Mikkel Haarup
+4150
$850.00
Cooper Webb
+4956
$1,011.20
Christian Craig
+5348
$1,089.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+5505
$1,121.00
Justin Barcia
+14496
$2,919.20
Valentin Guillod
+16018
$3,223.60
Benny Bloss
+17092
$3,438.40
Jordon Smith
+18769
$3,773.80
Mitchell Harrison
+18769
$3,773.80
Jeremy Hand
+22004
$4,420.80
Conner Mowry
+23264
$4,672.80
Blake Hoag
+23264
$4,672.80
Freddie Noren
+23264
$4,672.80
Grant Harlan
+23264
$4,672.80
Jack Winland
+23264
$4,672.80
Mikey Corcoran
+23264
$4,672.80
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+23264
$4,672.80
Dean Gall
+23264
$4,672.80
Lorenzo Locurcio
+23264
$4,672.80
Nathen Laporte
+23264
$4,672.80
Ethan Day
+23264
$4,672.80
Karter Delong
+23264
$4,672.80
Mitchell Prescott
+23264
$4,672.80
Christopher Blackmer
+23264
$4,672.80
Konnor Visger
+23264
$4,672.80
Ronnie Orres
+23264
$4,672.80
Grant Hoffman
+23264
$4,672.80
Noah Geyer
+23264
$4,672.80
Zach Gareis
+23264
$4,672.80
Hayden Hoover
+23264
$4,672.80
Luca Marsalisi
+23264
$4,672.80
Chase Haynes
+23264
$4,672.80
Mick Frantz
+23264
$4,672.80
Stephen Rubini
+23264
$4,672.80
Zane Klemz
+23264
$4,672.80
Cory Carsten
+23264
$4,672.80
Gavin Brough
+23264
$4,672.80
Jorge Rubalcava
+23264
$4,672.80
Travis Mecking
+23264
$4,672.80
Anton Nordstrom
+23264
$4,672.80
Brian Medeiros
+23264
$4,672.80
Brett Heidorn
+23264
$4,672.80
Bryton Carroll
+23264
$4,672.80
Chris Williams
+23264
$4,672.80
Damon Strobel
+23264
$4,672.80
Tyler Stepek
+23264
$4,672.80
Gavin Tilford
+23264
$4,672.80
Hamden Hudson
+23264
$4,672.80
Jace Kessler
+23264
$4,672.80
Bryce Hammond
+23264
$4,672.80
Cole Kish
+23264
$4,672.80
Justin Rodbell
+23264
$4,672.80
Mitchell Oldenburg
+23264
$4,672.80
Roan Van De Moosdijk
+23264
$4,672.80
Ryan Peters
+23264
$4,672.80
Vince Friese
+23264
$4,672.80
Vinny Luhovey
+23264
$4,672.80
Brock Stiener
+23264
$4,672.80
Daniel Bortolin
+23264
$4,672.80
Jeff Walker
+23264
$4,672.80
Kyle Petrie
+23264
$4,672.80
Whispern Smith
+23264
$4,672.80
Christian Mccauley
+23264
$4,672.80
Eddie Norred
+23264
$4,672.80
Joey Crown
+23264
$4,672.80
Mark Fineis
+23264
$4,672.80
Devin Simonson
+23264
$4,672.80
Ivon Hays Ii
+23264
$4,672.80
Jack Chambers
+23264
$4,672.80
Justin Kurtz
+23264
$4,672.80
Noah Miesen
+23264
$4,672.80

Moto #1 Winner

The Lawrence dynasty continues into the Moto #1 market, where Jett and Hunter have won two apiece this term. Hunter Lawrence bagged the Moto #1 checkered flag in the opening round and replicated the feat at High Point a fortnight ago. The older Lawrence enters Michigan with a 50% Moto #1 success rate in 2026, the same as his sibling.

Speaking of siblings, Jett Lawrence captured the Moto #1 races in rounds two and three, after being sidelined for over five months with a foot injury. As the odds suggest, it’s difficult to see another rider capturing Moto #1 this weekend, after the utter dominance of the Australians. However, if the status quo is to be challenged, one expects the push to come from the 450 rookie Haiden Deegan, who has finished on the podium in 50% of his eight race starts this year.

swipe to see more

Rider
Moto 1 Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+101
$40.20
Hunter Lawrence
+167
$53.40
Haiden Deegan
+1102
$240.40
RJ Hampshire
+1982
$416.40
Jorge Prado
+3126
$645.20
Tony Cairoli
+3551
$730.20
Cooper Webb
+4292
$878.40
Aaron Plessinger
+4359
$891.80
Garrett Marchbanks
+5480
$1,116.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+15188
$3,057.60
Justin Barcia
+15188
$3,057.60
Christian Craig
+15188
$3,057.60
Valentin Guillod
+15188
$3,057.60
Mikkel Haarup
+16507
$3,321.40
Mitchell Harrison
+16507
$3,321.40
Benny Bloss
+16507
$3,321.40
Jordon Smith
+16507
$3,321.40
Jeremy Hand
+17826
$3,585.20
Cornelius Tøndel
+17826
$3,585.20
Freddie Noren
+17826
$3,585.20
Grant Harlan
+17826
$3,585.20
Blake Hoag
+17826
$3,585.20
Mitchell Prescott
+17826
$3,585.20
Zach Gareis
+17826
$3,585.20
Ronnie Orres
+17826
$3,585.20
Christopher Blackmer
+17826
$3,585.20
Lorenzo Locurcio
+17826
$3,585.20
Noah Geyer
+17826
$3,585.20
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+17826
$3,585.20
Nathen Laporte
+17826
$3,585.20
Jack Winland
+17826
$3,585.20
Ethan Day
+17826
$3,585.20
Karter Delong
+17826
$3,585.20
Zane Klemz
+17826
$3,585.20
Konnor Visger
+17826
$3,585.20
Anton Nordstrom
+17826
$3,585.20
Luca Marsalisi
+17826
$3,585.20
Jorge Rubalcava
+17826
$3,585.20
Conner Mowry
+17826
$3,585.20
Mikey Corcoran
+17826
$3,585.20

Odds for Event Winner

It’s been all about the Lawrences so far, and that doesn’t change as we look ahead to the overall event winner market at RedBud. The leader of the 450 class standings, Jett Lawrence, rides onto the start hill at -183 to bag the event. He’s back to defend his title in Michigan and is looking for his third triumph at this venue in four years. Hunter Lawrence carries positive odds in round five, offering punters more value for money than his brother. The older Lawrence has claimed two out of four rounds in 2026, continuing his form from the SMX season, where he entered Victory Lane on five occasions.

Jorge Prado is yet to win an event this year, but he pushed the Aussies close in the opening round, finishing runner-up. He suffered in round two, settling for 17th overall, but delivered a strong showing at High Point National to finish fourth. Closing out our list of hopefuls for round five is Haiden Deegan. Truth be told, he hasn’t looked like a winner in 2026, but he’s ridden hard to earn a 50% podium return in the opening four rounds.

swipe to see more

Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-183
$30.93
Hunter Lawrence
+123
$44.60
Haiden Deegan
+721
$164.20
RJ Hampshire
+2824
$584.80
Jorge Prado
+2850
$590.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+4229
$865.80
Cooper Webb
+4685
$957.00
Tony Cairoli
+5852
$1,190.40
Aaron Plessinger
+7837
$1,587.40
Dylan Ferrandis
+19508
$3,921.60
Justin Barcia
+19508
$3,921.60
Christian Craig
+19508
$3,921.60
Valentin Guillod
+19508
$3,921.60
Mikkel Haarup
+20733
$4,166.60
Jordon Smith
+20733
$4,166.60
Benny Bloss
+20733
$4,166.60
Mitchell Harrison
+20733
$4,166.60
Jeremy Hand
+22122
$4,444.40
Cornelius Tøndel
+22122
$4,444.40
Freddie Noren
+22122
$4,444.40
Lorenzo Locurcio
+22122
$4,444.40
Grant Harlan
+22122
$4,444.40
Anton Nordstrom
+22122
$4,444.40
Blake Hoag
+22122
$4,444.40
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+22122
$4,444.40
Christopher Blackmer
+22122
$4,444.40
Conner Mowry
+22122
$4,444.40
Ethan Day
+22122
$4,444.40
Jack Winland
+22122
$4,444.40
Jorge Rubalcava
+22122
$4,444.40
Karter Delong
+22122
$4,444.40
Konnor Visger
+22122
$4,444.40
Luca Marsalisi
+22122
$4,444.40
Mikey Corcoran
+22122
$4,444.40
Mitchell Prescott
+22122
$4,444.40
Nathen Laporte
+22122
$4,444.40
Noah Geyer
+22122
$4,444.40
Zach Gareis
+22122
$4,444.40
Zane Klemz
+22122
$4,444.40
Ronnie Orres
+22122
$4,444.40
Expert Pick

With positive odds of +123, we’re tempted to hand Hunter Lawrence our expert pick tag, but he loses out to his younger brother. Jett Lawrence has the added advantage of entering Victory Lane at RedBud twice in the past three years. In 2025, the younger Lawrence captured the checkered flag in both races, forcing Hunter to settle for second. The markets have Jettson at -183 for top honors, potentially paying out $30.93 on a $20.00 wager.

Odds for a Podium

As we look ahead to the podium market, the Lawrence brothers are expensive picks and for good reason. The duo boasts a 100% podium return this season. The rookie, Haiden Deegan, arrives in Buchanan with two podiums from four rounds and a worst return of sixth in the opening four rounds. Deegan appears to have adapted quickly to the more powerful bike, as highlighted by his results in the opening four rounds. However, Deegan endured a rocky visit to this venue in 2025, when he finished in fifth in the 250 class.

Deegan is a wise choice for a podium given his current form, but if you’re after value, then Jorge Prado is your man. The Spaniard enters round five at +280 for a top three, with only one rostrum in the bag this term. He delivered his best performance in the opening round when he finished second, and showed glimpses of that class in round four, when he just missed the podium, settling for fourth.

swipe to see more

Rider
Podium Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-1000
$22.00
Hunter Lawrence
-650
$23.08
Haiden Deegan
-186
$30.75
Jorge Prado
+280
$76.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+387
$97.40
RJ Hampshire
+425
$105.00
Cooper Webb
+615
$143.00
Tony Cairoli
+954
$210.80
Aaron Plessinger
+995
$219.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+2032
$426.40
Justin Barcia
+4067
$833.40
Mikkel Haarup
+5136
$1,047.20
Ivon Hays Ii
+8030
$1,626.00
Noah Miesen
+8030
$1,626.00
Cole Kish
+8030
$1,626.00
Christian Craig
+8164
$1,652.80
Valentin Guillod
+8164
$1,652.80
Jordon Smith
+8164
$1,652.80
Benny Bloss
+8164
$1,652.80
Jeremy Hand
+8164
$1,652.80
Mitchell Harrison
+8164
$1,652.80
Cornelius Tøndel
+8164
$1,652.80
Freddie Noren
+8164
$1,652.80
Daniel Bortolin
+8164
$1,652.80
Joey Crown
+8164
$1,652.80
Eddie Norred
+8164
$1,652.80
Bryton Carroll
+8164
$1,652.80
Ryan Peters
+8164
$1,652.80
Gavin Brough
+8164
$1,652.80
Brock Stiener
+8164
$1,652.80
Jeff Walker
+8164
$1,652.80
Lorenzo Locurcio
+8164
$1,652.80
Cory Carsten
+8164
$1,652.80
Grant Hoffman
+8164
$1,652.80
Jace Kessler
+8164
$1,652.80
Justin Rodbell
+8164
$1,652.80
Grant Harlan
+8164
$1,652.80
Bryce Hammond
+8164
$1,652.80
Vince Friese
+8164
$1,652.80
Travis Mecking
+8164
$1,652.80

Top 5 Odds

The top 5 odds market is abuzz with value, starting with Jorge Prado, who lines up at -112 in this market. He boasts a 75% top-five record in 2026, only missing the cut in round two when he finished 17th. Sticking with value for money, Garrett Marchbanks enters this market at +137 after earning top fives in 50% of the opening four rounds. He just missed the cut at High Point Raceway, crossing the line in sixth, but he remains a strong contender to bag a third top five this Saturday.

Aaron Plessinger rides into Michigan at +303, fresh off his maiden top five of the term. “The Cowboy” was close on two occasions in the opening three rounds, but finally broke through last time out. Another one-time top five finisher is Dylan Ferrandis, who has proved a little inconsistent this term. His solo top five arrived at Hangtown, but he’s regressed since, ending in ninth and 17th in the events that followed.

swipe to see more

Rider
Top 5 Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-2178
$20.92
Hunter Lawrence
-1269
$21.58
Haiden Deegan
-428
$24.67
Jorge Prado
-112
$37.86
Garrett Marchbanks
+124
$44.80
RJ Hampshire
+137
$47.40
Cooper Webb
+185
$57.00
Tony Cairoli
+270
$74.00
Aaron Plessinger
+303
$80.60
Dylan Ferrandis
+431
$106.20
Mikkel Haarup
+653
$150.60
Justin Barcia
+681
$156.20
Christian Craig
+1445
$309.00
Valentin Guillod
+1827
$385.40
Jordon Smith
+3014
$622.80
Mitchell Harrison
+5600
$1,140.00
Benny Bloss
+5659
$1,151.80
Jeremy Hand
+5659
$1,151.80
Grant Harlan
+5659
$1,151.80
Freddie Noren
+5659
$1,151.80
Lorenzo Locurcio
+5659
$1,151.80
Cornelius Tøndel
+5659
$1,151.80
Blake Hoag
+5659
$1,151.80
Mitchell Prescott
+5659
$1,151.80
Zach Gareis
+5659
$1,151.80
Ronnie Orres
+5659
$1,151.80
Christopher Blackmer
+5659
$1,151.80
Noah Geyer
+5659
$1,151.80
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+5659
$1,151.80
Nathen Laporte
+5659
$1,151.80
Jack Winland
+5659
$1,151.80
Ethan Day
+5659
$1,151.80
Karter Delong
+5659
$1,151.80
Zane Klemz
+5659
$1,151.80
Konnor Visger
+5659
$1,151.80
Anton Nordstrom
+5659
$1,151.80
Luca Marsalisi
+5659
$1,151.80
Jorge Rubalcava
+5659
$1,151.80
Conner Mowry
+5659
$1,151.80
Mikey Corcoran
+5659
$1,151.80

H2H Odds

Jorge Prado and Garret Marchbanks meet at RedBud in the pick of our matchups. The Utahn lines up as the underdog, despite outperforming the Spaniard in 50% of the opening four rounds. Marchbanks got the better of his rival at Hangtown and Thunder Valley, but Prado bounced back last time out, finishing two places ahead of this Saturday’s underdog. Marchbanks starts this battle with positive odds of +102 and has proven he can cross the line ahead of Prado.

swipe to see more

Rider
Matchup Odds
Payout on $20
Hunter Lawrence
+116
$43.20
Jett Lawrence
-154
$32.99
Haiden Deegan
-429
$24.66
RJ Hampshire
+286
$77.20
Garrett Marchbanks
+102
$40.40
Jorge Prado
-135
$34.81
Cooper Webb
-150
$33.33
Tony Cairoli
+113
$42.60

DFS Finishing Positions

Moto #1

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Jorge Prado
5.5
RJ Hampshire
6.5
Garrett Marchbanks
6.5
Tony Cairoli
8.5
Cooper Webb
8.5
Aaron Plessinger
9.5
Dylan Ferrandis
10.5

Overall

Rider
Overall Finishing Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
1.5
Haiden Deegan
2.5
Jorge Prado
5.5
Garrett Marchbanks
5.5
RJ Hampshire
6.5
Cooper Webb
7.5
Tony Cairoli
8.5
Aaron Plessinger
8.5
Dylan Ferrandis
9.5

Where to Bet on MX RedBud National

Bets for the Pro Motocross RedBud National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbets’ comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.

21+ Please refer to Affiliated Operators’ T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

operator logo
DraftKings
Spend $5+ on SMX, Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly!
operator logo
FanDuel
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
operator logo
BetMGM
GET UP TO $1,500 PAID BACK IN BONUS BETS
operator logo
Caesars
Use Code SUPERMOTODYW and Bet $1, Double Your Winnings
Related Posts: