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Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Spring Creek National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Spring Creek National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

We are halfway through the 2026 Pro Motocross Championship, and only five rounds remain in the series. It’s all about the Lawrence brothers heading into the Spring Creek National as only a single point separates the siblings in the 450 class standings. Jett Lawrence tops the pre-event odds for round seven, but Hunter is hot on his tail to enter Victory Lane. Beyond the title contenders, Eli Tomac makes his return to the dirt this weekend, hoping to disrupt the Australians’ dynasty. Catch the betting markets and top picks for this Saturday in our preview below.

Bets for the MX Spring Creek National can be placed with our partner sportsbooks.

In addition to traditional sports betting, the Motocross Championship offers a Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) option for the series, available exclusively on Underdog. DFS offers a new way for fans to engage with the sport, allowing them to make real money picks in a thrilling Pick’Em format. This expanding category within legal sports wagering enables Motocross enthusiasts in 30 states, including California, Utah, and Texas, where traditional sports betting is currently prohibited, to participate in the action.

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Schedule and How to Watch MX Spring Creek National

Round 7 of the 2026 Pro Motocross series roars to life at the Spring Creek MX Park on Saturday, July 18, for one day only. Riders set up shop in Millville, MN for a full-day affair, which commences with qualifying in the morning and concludes in the late afternoon with two races. First on the program is the Moto #1 spectacle at 3:15 pm CDT, and racers will enjoy a short breather before returning to the track to contest Moto #2 at 5:30 pm. Watch Jett Lawrence live on Peacock as he attempts to defend his title at this venue, and check the latest schedule on the Spring Creek National event page.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Live SMX Odds

Best Bets & Odds for 450 Class Motocross Spring Creek National

Moto #1 Holeshot Odds

After 12 races in the 2026 season, the Lawrence brothers have bagged the holeshot on eight occasions. Both Hunter and Jett have contributed four holeshot awards to the cause, highlighting the brothers’ excellence in this department. Hunter Lawrence holds the momentum, after leading into the first corner in 50% of the last six races. The older Lawrence adds to his impressive holeshot record obtained in the Supercross season, where he topped the table with seven.

Moving on from the Australians, its another foreigner who stands out to enter the opening corner in the lead. Jorge Prado earned two holeshots at RedBud National, his only two in the MX season. However, he closed out the SX term with six holeshots, one shy of Hunter. Longshots, Mikkel Haarup and Cooper Webb cap off the holeshotters on the grid, after earning one apiece in the earlier races of the year.

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Rider
Holeshot Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+176
$55.20
Hunter Lawrence
+255
$71.00
Jorge Prado
+298
$79.60
Haiden Deegan
+504
$120.80
RJ Hampshire
+1076
$235.20
Garrett Marchbanks
+1584
$336.80
Tony Cairoli
+2132
$446.40
Dylan Ferrandis
+2438
$507.60
Mikkel Haarup
+2876
$595.20
Cooper Webb
+3604
$740.80
Cornelius Tøndel
+3761
$772.20
Justin Barcia
+9515
$1,923.00
Valentin Guillod
+9515
$1,923.00
Jordon Smith
+10001
$2,020.20
Jeremy Hand
+11948
$2,409.60
Benny Bloss
+12400
$2,500.00
Mitchell Harrison
+12400
$2,500.00
Mark Fineis
+13414
$2,702.80
Freddie Noren
+13414
$2,702.80
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+13414
$2,702.80
Grant Harlan
+13414
$2,702.80
Bryce Hammond
+13414
$2,702.80
Konnor Visger
+13414
$2,702.80
Devin Simonson
+13414
$2,702.80
Ayden Shive
+13414
$2,702.80
Matti Jorgensen
+13414
$2,702.80
Jack Chambers
+13414
$2,702.80
Jack Winland
+13414
$2,702.80
John Short
+13414
$2,702.80
Bryton Carroll
+13414
$2,702.80
Eddie Norred
+13414
$2,702.80
Vinny Luhovey
+13414
$2,702.80
Austin Cozadd
+13414
$2,702.80
Dean Gall
+13414
$2,702.80
Collin Hinrichs
+13414
$2,702.80
Harris Huizenga
+13414
$2,702.80
Kyle Kunstman
+13414
$2,702.80
Noah Miesen
+13414
$2,702.80

Moto #1 Winner

The younger Lawrence brother, Jett, starts Moto #1 as the overwhelming favorite, carrying negative odds. Jettson has notched up a 50% win rate in the opening 12 races, joined by Hunter, who also has six triumphs under the bike. Out of their six victories, both Hunter and Jett have earned three Moto #1 wins. No other rider besides the brothers has held the honor of entering Victory Lane this year, but Jorge Prado and Haiden Deegan have come close, posting three runner-up finishes apiece across the campaign.

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Rider
Moto #1 Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-109
$38.35
Hunter Lawrence
+138
$47.60
Haiden Deegan
+488
$117.60
Jorge Prado
+700
$160.00
RJ Hampshire
+1436
$307.20
Garrett Marchbanks
+2749
$569.80
Cooper Webb
+3085
$637.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+11948
$2,409.60
Justin Barcia
+11948
$2,409.60
Tony Cairoli
+12721
$2,564.20
Valentin Guillod
+12721
$2,564.20
Mikkel Haarup
+12721
$2,564.20
Mark Fineis
+12721
$2,564.20
Jordon Smith
+13789
$2,777.80
Benny Bloss
+13789
$2,777.80
Mitchell Harrison
+13789
$2,777.80
Jeremy Hand
+13789
$2,777.80
Matti Jorgensen
+14606
$2,941.20
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+14606
$2,941.20
Austin Cozadd
+14606
$2,941.20
Ayden Shive
+14606
$2,941.20
John Short
+14606
$2,941.20
Kyle Kunstman
+14606
$2,941.20
Ronnie Orres
+14606
$2,941.20
Noah Miesen
+14606
$2,941.20
Freddie Noren
+14825
$2,985.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+14825
$2,985.00
Grant Harlan
+14825
$2,985.00
Devin Simonson
+14825
$2,985.00
Jack Winland
+14825
$2,985.00
Konnor Visger
+14825
$2,985.00
Bryton Carroll
+14825
$2,985.00
Grant Hoffman
+14825
$2,985.00
Bryce Hammond
+14825
$2,985.00
Vinny Luhovey
+14825
$2,985.00
Jack Chambers
+14825
$2,985.00
Deegan Hepp
+14825
$2,985.00
Kyle Petrie
+14825
$2,985.00

Odds for Event Winner

Reigning Spring Creek National Champion, Jettson Lawrence, lines up for round seven as the short-odds favorite. The Queenslander has found himself inside Victory Lane on his last two visits to Millville and adds to his chances with three victories in six rounds this term. Jett has his tail up after carding his third top honors of the year, but Hunter Lawrence enters as the value pick, winning 50% of the opening six rounds.

Of all the riders on the grid, Jorge Prado has come closest to disrupting the Lawrence Dynasty in 2026. The Spaniard closed out his duties at Fox Raceway and RedBud National in second, behind the older Lawrence both times. Haiden Deegan also challenged the Aussies at Hangtown, High Point, and Southwick, finishing third every time. Rounding out our list of event contenders, Eli Tomac is back on the grid and set to push the leaders. However, “Beast Mode” hasn’t earned an outdoor triumph since 2022.

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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-142
$34.08
Hunter Lawrence
+111
$42.20
Haiden Deegan
+500
$120.00
Jorge Prado
+800
$180.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+2553
$530.60
RJ Hampshire
+2625
$545.00
Cooper Webb
+4032
$826.40
Dylan Ferrandis
+10001
$2,020.20
Justin Barcia
+10001
$2,020.20
Valentin Guillod
+19508
$3,921.60
Tony Cairoli
+19900
$4,000.00
Mikkel Haarup
+19900
$4,000.00
Mark Fineis
+19900
$4,000.00
Jordon Smith
+20733
$4,166.60
Benny Bloss
+20733
$4,166.60
Mitchell Harrison
+20733
$4,166.60
Jeremy Hand
+20733
$4,166.60
Austin Cozadd
+21639
$4,347.80
Vinny Luhovey
+21639
$4,347.80
Deegan Hepp
+21639
$4,347.80
Jack Winland
+21639
$4,347.80
Noah Miesen
+21639
$4,347.80
Konnor Visger
+21639
$4,347.80
Ayden Shive
+21639
$4,347.80
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+21639
$4,347.80
Bryton Carroll
+21639
$4,347.80
Kyle Petrie
+21639
$4,347.80
Freddie Noren
+22122
$4,444.40
Cornelius Tøndel
+22122
$4,444.40
Devin Simonson
+22122
$4,444.40
Grant Harlan
+22122
$4,444.40
Grant Hoffman
+22122
$4,444.40
Bryce Hammond
+22122
$4,444.40
Kyle Kunstman
+22122
$4,444.40
Jack Chambers
+22122
$4,444.40
Ronnie Orres
+22122
$4,444.40
John Short
+22122
$4,444.40
Matti Jorgensen
+22122
$4,444.40
Expert Pick

Defending Pro Motocross Champion Jett Lawrence wins the battle for our expert pick ahead of round seven. The Aussie has snatched top honors at this venue twice in the last three years, missing out on this event in 2024. His consistency is clear this season, starting Spring Creek with a 1.83 finishing average across six events. Sportsbooks have Jettson at -142 to take the checkered flag, possibly paying out $34.08 for a $20.00 wager.

Odds for a Podium

Unsurprisingly, we see the high-flying Aussies with seriously short odds to bag a top three. That’s because Hunter and Jett have built a 100% podium success rate across the opening six rounds. Settling for the minor places is rookie Haiden Deegan, who has the third most rostrums under the bike this term. The Californian has racked up a 50% top three return in the first six rounds, averaging 4.33. 

Jorge Prado has pushed the Lawrence brothers close on two occasions, riding away with two runner-ups. His finishing average is tarnished by a 17th-place return in round two, raising his median to 5.67. While it’s too early to tell what form Eli Tomac is in upon his return, he settled for seventh on his last trip to Spring Creek.

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Rider
Podium Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-800
$22.50
Hunter Lawrence
-550
$23.64
Haiden Deegan
-150
$33.33
Jorge Prado
+100
$40.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+300
$80.00
RJ Hampshire
+349
$89.80
Cooper Webb
+350
$90.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+900
$200.00
Tony Cairoli
+1200
$260.00
Justin Barcia
+1200
$260.00
Mikkel Haarup
+2132
$446.40
Valentin Guillod
+6567
$1,333.40
Freddie Noren
+7199
$1,459.80
Grant Hoffman
+7199
$1,459.80
Ronnie Orres
+7199
$1,459.80
John Short
+7199
$1,459.80
Mark Fineis
+7253
$1,470.60
Benny Bloss
+7253
$1,470.60
Jeremy Hand
+7253
$1,470.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+7253
$1,470.60
Devin Simonson
+7253
$1,470.60
Grant Harlan
+7253
$1,470.60
Austin Cozadd
+7253
$1,470.60
Bryce Hammond
+7253
$1,470.60
Vinny Luhovey
+7253
$1,470.60
Deegan Hepp
+7253
$1,470.60
Noah Miesen
+7253
$1,470.60
Konnor Visger
+7253
$1,470.60
Ayden Shive
+7253
$1,470.60
Matti Jorgensen
+7253
$1,470.60
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+7253
$1,470.60
Bryton Carroll
+7253
$1,470.60
Kyle Petrie
+7253
$1,470.60
Mitchell Harrison
+7307
$1,481.40
Kyle Kunstman
+7307
$1,481.40
Jack Chambers
+7307
$1,481.40
Jack Winland
+7307
$1,481.40
Jordon Smith
+7419
$1,503.80

Top 5 Odds

Garrett Marchbanks was our go-to value-for-money pick in the top five market for the opening rounds of the season, but the markets have caught up. He starts with negative odds for a top-five finish after achieving the feat in 80% of the past five rounds. Just ahead of him on the odds sheet is Jorge Prado, who boasts a 100% top-five return in his past four starts.

Our bang-for-buck rider in this market is RJ Hampshire, who found himself among the first five riders in one round this term. His consistency is highlighted by his 6.83 finishing average, despite only one top-five return in 2026. Furthermore, Hampshire thrived in his last visit to Spring Creek, crossing the line in fourth place. Further down the odds list is another one-time top-five finisher this MX season. Dylan Ferrandis, another longshot in this market, lines up with one top five under the bike this term, but he did earn a podium at this venue back in 2023.

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Rider
Top 5 Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-1500
$21.33
Hunter Lawrence
-800
$22.50
Haiden Deegan
-400
$25.00
Jorge Prado
-200
$30.00
Garrett Marchbanks
-130
$35.38
RJ Hampshire
+134
$46.80
Cooper Webb
+200
$60.00
Tony Cairoli
+300
$80.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+300
$80.00
Mikkel Haarup
+400
$100.00
Justin Barcia
+559
$131.80
Jordon Smith
+600
$140.00
Valentin Guillod
+1148
$249.60
Mitchell Harrison
+1500
$320.00
Mark Fineis
+1852
$390.40
Benny Bloss
+3816
$783.20
Jeremy Hand
+5000
$1,020.00
Grant Harlan
+5000
$1,020.00
Freddie Noren
+5000
$1,020.00
John Short
+5000
$1,020.00
Devin Simonson
+5000
$1,020.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+5000
$1,020.00
Jack Winland
+5000
$1,020.00
Matti Jorgensen
+5000
$1,020.00
Daniel Bortolin
+5000
$1,020.00
Brandon Espe-Tiegs
+5000
$1,020.00
Konnor Visger
+5000
$1,020.00
Austin Cozadd
+5000
$1,020.00
Bryton Carroll
+5000
$1,020.00
Raice Hernandez
+5000
$1,020.00
Grant Hoffman
+5000
$1,020.00
Ayden Shive
+5000
$1,020.00
Bryce Hammond
+5000
$1,020.00
Vinny Luhovey
+5000
$1,020.00
Kyle Kunstman
+5000
$1,020.00
Jack Chambers
+5000
$1,020.00
Ronnie Orres
+5000
$1,020.00
Deegan Hepp
+5000
$1,020.00
Noah Miesen
+5000
$1,020.00
Kyle Petrie
+5000
$1,020.00

H2H Odds

Cooper Webb meets Frenchman Dylan Ferrandis in the pick of our rider matchups at Spring Creek. The foreigner is the underdog in this battle, priced at +128, but he’s beaten Webb to the finish line in 50% of the opening six rounds. In addition, Ferrandis arrives in Spring Creek with a marginally better finishing average of 9.17 compared to his rival’s 9.50.

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Rider
Matchup Odds
Payout on $20
Hunter Lawrence
-450
$24.44
Jorge Prado
+297
$79.40
Garrett Marchbanks
-161
$32.42
RJ Hampshire
+121
$44.20
Cooper Webb
-171
$31.70
Dylan Ferrandis
+128
$45.60
Haiden Deegan
+248
$69.60
Jett Lawrence
-360
$25.56

DFS Finishing Positions

Moto #1

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Jorge Prado
3.5
Garrett Marchbanks
5.5
RJ Hampshire
5.5
Tony Cairoli
7.5
Cooper Webb
7.5
Dylan Ferrandis
9.5
Mikkel Haarup
9.5

Overall

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Jorge Prado
3.5
Garrett Marchbanks
5.5
Rj Hampshire
5.5
Tony Cairoli
7.5
Cooper Webb
7.5
Dylan Ferrandis
9.5
Mikkel Haarup
9.5

Where to Bet on MX Spring Creek National

Bets for the Pro Motocross FXR Spring Creek National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbets’ comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.

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