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Best Bets: F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis

After 23 rounds of racing, the season finale is upon us, and it will be the first time in 15 years that more than one driver can still win the Championship. Lando Norris leads the field by 12 points into the F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but the in-form Max Verstappen tops the pre-event odds. Oscar Piastri kept himself in the title hunt with a strong showing last weekend, but punters are putting their faith in Norris and his Red Bull rival to duel for top honors. Outside of the Drivers Championship, a plethora of betting opportunities await in the last weekend on the calendar, from podium pricing and top six finishes to the constructor winner and midfield triumphant.

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Schedule and How to Watch the F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Five sessions remain in the 2025 F1 season as the drivers touch down in the capital of the United Arab Emirates. There is no sprint race this weekend, which means we return to the standard procedure of three practice spells, qualifying, and the main race on Sunday, December 7. Cars assemble on the grid for the 24th Grand Prix of the year at 8:00 am EST, live from the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi. Switch on ESPN, sit back, and enjoy the final laps of an epic campaign.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

F1 Abu Dhabi Prix Odds

Event Winner Odds

A three-driver race is on the cards as the 2025 season concludes in Abu Dhabi this weekend. Points leader Lando Norris arrives as the defending champion at the Yas Marina Circuit, after winning two of the last five races. However, he struggled in the previous two rounds, copping a disqualification in Las Vegas and fourth place in Qatar. If Kimi Antonelli hadn’t faltered on the penultimate lap in Doha, Norris would’ve settled for fifth. His colleague, Oscar Piastri, appears frustrated with his team’s tactics at the moment, but he produced his best weekend since Monza last time out. The Aussie starts with seven victories in his portfolio this term.

Max Verstappen has already etched his name into the history books with four World Championships, but the Dutchman has the potential to produce one of the greatest comebacks in F1 history this weekend. He was 104 points adrift of the leader prior to Monza, but starts this weekend in second place, only 12 points off Norris. Verstappen is the in-form driver on the grid, boasting nine consecutive podiums between Zandvoort and Lusail. Five of those results saw him enter Victory Lane.

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Driver
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
+175
$55.00
Lando Norris
+182
$56.40
Oscar Piastri
+352
$90.40
Kimi Antonelli
+1124
$244.80
George Russell
+1715
$363.00
Charles Leclerc
+2554
$530.80
Lewis Hamilton
+5722
$1,164.40
Yuki Tsunoda
+17837
$3,587.40
Alexander Albon
+17837
$3,587.40
Carlos Sainz
+17837
$3,587.40
Esteban Ocon
+17837
$3,587.40
Fernando Alonso
+17837
$3,587.40
Franco Colapinto
+17837
$3,587.40
Gabriel Bortoleto
+17837
$3,587.40
Isack Hadjar
+17837
$3,587.40
Lance Stroll
+17837
$3,587.40
Liam Lawson
+17837
$3,587.40
Nico Hulkenberg
+17837
$3,587.40
Oliver Bearman
+17837
$3,587.40
Pierre Gasly
+17837
$3,587.40

Expert Pick

We were vindicated last weekend when Max Verstappen clinched the Qatar Grand Prix. So, we’re not here to fix what isn’t broken, and are installing our faith in the Dutchman to win his fifth Grand Prix here in six years. The Red Bull star is averaging 1.80 in his past five starts, highlighting his sublime form leading into the finale.

Lando Norris

Lando Norris leads the Drivers Championship by 12 points from Max Verstappen heading into the final weekend of the year.

Podium Odds

Mercedes rookie, Kimi Antonelli, continues his impressive run at the backend of the campaign, producing two podiums in three races. He held onto fourth spot until the 56th lap, when an error nudged him off track, giving Norris a gap to pass him. The Italian is showing that he can consistently deliver, and offers value for money for a top-three performance. Sticking with the theme of Italians, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc can’t be written off at this venue. He’s stood on the rostrum in his last three visits to the UAE Capital. In 2024, the Monegasque driver started from 19th on the grid and worked his way through the field to finish third.

Antonelli’s senior, George Russell, clocks in for the final round as the only driver on the grid to have finished every race this year. The Briton has joined in the champagne celebrations on nine weekends this term, twice as a winner. He’s also remarkably consistent, averaging 4.0 in his past 10 appearances. One driver who has found his rhythm is Carlos Sainz. The Williams pilot produced his second podium for his new team and back-to-back top sixes. While he has an outside shot of making the podium, he’s showing the pace of the vehicle and his ability to compete with the top four garages.

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Driver
Event Podium
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
-308
$26.49
Lando Norris
-285
$27.02
Oscar Piastri
-151
$33.25
Kimi Antonelli
+151
$50.20
George Russell
+231
$66.20
Charles Leclerc
+340
$88.00
Lewis Hamilton
+609
$141.80
Yuki Tsunoda
+9486
$1,917.20
Alexander Albon
+9486
$1,917.20
Carlos Sainz
+9486
$1,917.20
Isack Hadjar
+9486
$1,917.20
Liam Lawson
+9486
$1,917.20
Fernando Alonso
+9486
$1,917.20
Nico Hulkenberg
+9486
$1,917.20
Oliver Bearman
+9486
$1,917.20
Gabriel Bortoleto
+9486
$1,917.20
Esteban Ocon
+9486
$1,917.20
Lance Stroll
+9486
$1,917.20
Pierre Gasly
+9486
$1,917.20
Franco Colapinto
+9486
$1,917.20
Oscar Piastri

Oscar Piastri has never finished on the podium in Abu Dhabi, despite strong qualifying runs on his last two visits.

Odds for the Top 6

Qatar produced another challenging weekend for Lewis Hamilton, as he greeted the stewards outside of the top 10. The Ferrari driver appears to lack confidence and cohesion with his pit crew, but despite the hiccups, he’s still finished among the top six in nine races this year. Staying with British-born drivers, Alex Albon remains a contender for a top six, despite last achieving the feat in the Netherlands. He’s collected five top-six results across the campaign, better than any of his midfield rivals.

Double World Champion, Fernando Alonso, crossed the line in seventh in the past round. His fourth such result this year. The veteran has only made the top six once all season, but he’s constantly knocking on the door. Red Bull number two, Yuki Tsunoda, starts the weekend ahead of Albon and Alonso in the betting, but he’s only cracked the top six once this year and is a better option for a top 10 outing in the final round. Over in the Racing Bulls pen, Isack Hadjar is worth a look, after finishing as one of the first six cars three times this year. Consistency isn’t his strength, with three performances ending outside of the top ten in the past five rounds.

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Driver
Event Top 6
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
-721
$22.77
Lando Norris
-689
$22.90
Oscar Piastri
-492
$24.07
Kimi Antonelli
-300
$26.67
George Russell
-224
$28.93
Charles Leclerc
-171
$31.70
Lewis Hamilton
-120
$36.67
Yuki Tsunoda
+582
$136.40
Alexander Albon
+700
$160.00
Carlos Sainz
+759
$171.80
Isack Hadjar
+846
$189.20
Fernando Alonso
+1128
$245.60
Liam Lawson
+1180
$256.00
Nico Hulkenberg
+3229
$665.80
Oliver Bearman
+3619
$743.80
Gabriel Bortoleto
+4158
$851.60
Esteban Ocon
+4554
$930.80
Lance Stroll
+5684
$1,156.80
Pierre Gasly
+6777
$1,375.40
Franco Colapinto
+10107
$2,041.40

Odds for a Top 10 Finish

New Zealander Liam Lawson has found some rhythm in the second half of the year, conjuring up six top tens in the previous 13 rounds. From youth to experience, Nico Hulkenberg was unlucky in Qatar, just clipping Gasly, to crash out. That’s now his second DNF in five races, but he’s captured three top tens in that period as well. Speaking of Pierre Gasly, the Alpine senior drove well all weekend and showed immense promise until the contact with Hulkenberg. He’s registered five top tens this year, but only one in the previous ten races.

Another rookie who has excelled late in the year is Haas’ Ollie Bearman, but Qatar didn’t go according to plan. A disastrous box saw him lose time and accrue a penalty for an unsafe release. He eventually retired from the race, leaving Doha pointless. On a positive note, the youngster has six top tens to his name in the past nine appearances. Bearman’s mentor, Esteban Ocon, struggled at Lusail, but he’s been reliable of late, posting a 50% top ten return in four starts.

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Driver
Event Top 10
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
-1190
$21.68
Lando Norris
-1125
$21.78
Oscar Piastri
-982
$22.04
Kimi Antonelli
-739
$22.71
George Russell
-630
$23.17
Charles Leclerc
-526
$23.80
Lewis Hamilton
-421
$24.75
Yuki Tsunoda
+101
$40.20
Alexander Albon
+119
$43.80
Carlos Sainz
+125
$45.00
Isack Hadjar
+135
$47.00
Fernando Alonso
+155
$51.00
Liam Lawson
+166
$53.20
Nico Hulkenberg
+311
$82.20
Oliver Bearman
+339
$87.80
Gabriel Bortoleto
+390
$98.00
Esteban Ocon
+413
$102.60
Lance Stroll
+454
$110.80
Pierre Gasly
+539
$127.80
Franco Colapinto
+1507
$321.40
Charles Leclerc

Charles Leclerc has finished on the rostrum on his previous three visits to Abu Dhabi.

H2H of Interest

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Matchup
Moneyline
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
-105
$39.05
Lando Norris
+105
$41.00
Nico Hulkenberg
+152
$50.40
Fernando Alonso
-152
$33.16
Oliver Bearman
+172
$54.40
Isack Hadjar
-172
$31.63
Charles Leclerc
+155
$51.00
Kimi Antonelli
-155
$32.90
Pierre Gasly
+111
$42.20
Esteban Ocon
-111
$38.02

Fastest Qualifier Odds

Yas Marina Circuit plays host to the most important qualifying session of the year this weekend. The driver who has started in pole position in the last 10 races has gone on to win the Grand Prix. Verstappen and Piastri desperately need a win if they have a shot of leapfrogging Lando Norris for the title. Norris clocked the fastest time on Saturday last year at this venue and proceeded to win the race. The papaya driver is tied with Max Verstappen on seven Pirelli Pole Position awards this year.

Oscar Piastri trails the duo with six starts from the front row on the grid. The Aussie powered to first place on Saturday night in Doha, his first since Zandvoort. Mercedes ‘ George Russell has proudly captured two poles this year, but both of them were on street circuits or at the minimum hybrid layouts. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is the only other driver to win the pole position award this year, stopping the clock fastest in Hungary.

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Driver
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
+289
$77.80
Lando Norris
+292
$78.40
Oscar Piastri
+343
$88.60
George Russell
+1122
$244.40
Charles Leclerc
+1723
$364.60
Kimi Antonelli
+2578
$535.60
Lewis Hamilton
+3373
$694.60
Carlos Sainz
+21411
$4,302.20
Fernando Alonso
+21411
$4,302.20
Alexander Albon
+21411
$4,302.20
Esteban Ocon
+21411
$4,302.20
Franco Colapinto
+21411
$4,302.20
Gabriel Bortoleto
+21411
$4,302.20
Isack Hadjar
+21411
$4,302.20
Lance Stroll
+21411
$4,302.20
Liam Lawson
+21411
$4,302.20
Nico Hulkenberg
+21411
$4,302.20
Oliver Bearman
+21411
$4,302.20
Pierre Gasly
+21411
$4,302.20
Yuki Tsunoda
+21411
$4,302.20

Odds for the Constructors' Winner

Leading into Monza, McLaren had captured 12 Constructors titles across the campaign. This aided the Woking outfit in claiming the Championship at the Singapore Grand Prix. Despite a sensational start to the season, the papaya outfit has faltered in the last 10 rounds, capturing only 20% of the victories. Mercedes contributed one to the cause, through George Russell in Singapore, but other than that, it’s been all Red Bull.

The Milton-Keynes garage has taken home five team trophies in the last eight races, all thanks to Verstappen. They are also seeking to end their campaign on a hat trick. Ferrari continues to struggle this year, but we can’t ignore their history at this venue. The men from Maranello have delivered a podium-performing vehicle since 2021 in Abu Dhabi. Can they finally come right and grab the checkered flag?

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Team
Constructor Winner Odds
$20 Payout
Mclaren
+108
$41.60
Red Bull
+229
$65.80
Mercedes
+770
$174.00
Ferrari
+2072
$434.40
Williams
+10691
$2,158.20
Aston Martin
+10691
$2,158.20
Racing Bulls
+10691
$2,158.20
Alpine
+10691
$2,158.20
Haas
+10691
$2,158.20
Sauber
+10691
$2,158.20

Odds for the Midfield Winner Race

Earlier, we commended Carlos Sainz for his continued improvement. The Spaniard starts the final weekend with consecutive midfield wins. He’s also clinched two podiums this year, more than any of his midfield competitors. His Williams coworker, Alex Albon, boasts the most midfield triumphs on the grid season, with five. The issue is that he last pulled it off in Italy.

Ollie Bearman beat the rest in Mexico and Brazil, to show he his here to challenge. The youngster has found himself in the mix with the top six twice and the top ten as many times in the last five weekends. On the other side of the experience spectrum, Fernando Alonso arrives in Abu Dhabi after finishing seventh last weekend. He’s topped the midfield battle in four Grands Prix in 2025, all of them coming in the last 14 rounds. Continuing with the veterans, Nico Hulkenberg continues to put his hand up, with three midfield successes. He lines up for the season finale with three top 10s in the final five rounds.

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Driver
Midfield Winner
Payout on $20
Alexander Albon
+466
$113.20
Liam Lawson
+542
$128.40
Carlos Sainz
+544
$128.80
Isack Hadjar
+611
$142.20
Fernando Alonso
+672
$154.40
Nico Hulkenberg
+1714
$362.80
Oliver Bearman
+2101
$440.20
Gabriel Bortoleto
+2505
$521.00
Esteban Ocon
+2663
$552.60
Lance Stroll
+2733
$566.60
Pierre Gasly
+3740
$768.00
Franco Colapinto
+16170
$3,254.00

Where to Bet on the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

For the first time since 2010, more than two drivers stand a chance of clinching the Drivers’ Championship. Will the 12-point buffer be enough for Lando Norris to hold on for glory? Or will Max Verstappen rise to the occasion and secure his fifth consecutive F1 title?

Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you prepare for the Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of F1 betting, our comprehensive F1 Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.

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