Best Bets: F1 United States GP 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Unsurprisingly, the odds-on favorite for victory in Austin is the in-form Lando Norris at -110. The young Briton has been on a tear since the summer break, outscoring Verstappen at every race and slicing the Dutchman’s championship lead down to just 52 points. Norris’ pure pace advantage over the field in Singapore was staggering, and if McLaren’s upgrades for COTA deliver as promised, it’s hard to bet against a fifth win of the season. The biggest question mark for Norris will be whether he can maintain his zen-like focus and composure with the title now firmly in his sights.

Oscar Piastri, in his second F1 season, has firmly established himself as a top-tier talent. Two wins and seven total podiums already in 2024, the Australian has showcased speed, racecraft and consistency that belie his relative inexperience. Piastri has been a near-perfect wingman for Norris’ title tilt, seemingly immune to the pressure that often derails young drivers thrust into championship contention. At +450 for the win and -190 for a podium, the Aussie looks a strong bet to continue his stellar form in Austin.

However, writing off Max Verstappen at +450 would be foolish. Yes, the two-time defending champion has struggled relative to his own lofty standards since the break, but context is key. Verstappen has been hamstrung by a Red Bull car that seems to have stagnated developmentally while McLaren have found a rich vein of form. Yet even in a compromised RB20, the Dutchman has managed four second places and a third in the last seven races. It’s a measure of how high Verstappen has set the bar that such results constitute a “slump.” More intriguingly for bettors, Verstappen has owned COTA in recent years. Three wins in his last four visits point to an innate affinity for the circuit that even a flying Norris could struggle to overcome. If Red Bull’s planned updates for Austin shift the performance balance even slightly back in their favor, Verstappen at +450 begins to look like tremendous value.

Outsider Bets

For those hunting a bigger payout, Charles Leclerc at +850 is worth a look. The Ferrari man endured a miserable qualifying in Singapore but showcased his racecraft by recovering to 5th. The nimble F2-75 should be well-suited to COTA’s flowing curves and elevation changes, and Leclerc has a habit of pulling victory from the jaws of defeat when the Scuderia gives him a sniff. He finished a strong 3rd in Austin in 2022 and will be keen to prove that Ferrari can still be a factor in this enthralling championship denouement.

Lewis Hamilton, at +1400, can never be counted out in Texas. The seven-time world champion has a love affair with COTA, winning five times in eight visits. The Mercedes W14 looked like the third-quickest car in Singapore, but the team have a habit of springing set-up surprises at venues they’ve historically excelled at. With the pressure of chasing a record-breaking eighth title off his shoulders, a more relaxed Hamilton could be a threat if the Silver Arrows can find a sweet spot. A podium at +285 looks a particularly juicy bet for the wily veteran.

Similarly, George Russell at +1800 is another Mercedes man who could spring a surprise. While he hasn’t quite matched Hamilton’s highs at COTA, Russell has shown flashes of speed that suggest he could be a podium dark horse if the W14 finds its groove. The younger Briton is still chasing that elusive first win and will be desperate to prove he can mix it with the big dogs before replacing Hamilton as Mercedes’ undisputed team leader next season. Like his veteran teammate, Russell offers a tempting +285 for a top-three finish.

Expert Pick for F1 United States

Based on the available data, Max Verstappen gets the nod as the prudent pick for Austin at +450. While Norris has been in sublime form, Verstappen’s COTA track record and the potential of Red Bull’s upgrades tilt the scales in the Dutchman’s favor from a betting perspective. If the RB20 is even marginally more competitive, Verstappen’s preternatural speed and Austin mastery could yield a handsome payout for savvy punters. Never bet against a hungry champion with something to prove.

Where to Bet on F1

Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming United States GP. If you’re a newbie in the world of F1 betting, our comprehensive F1 Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.

As the championship battle enters its final dramatic act, the 2024 United States Grand Prix presents a pivotal opportunity for the leading protagonists. Can Norris maintain his scintillating form and further erode Verstappen’s points lead? Will the defending champ rediscover his early-season dominance? Or might an outsider spring a surprise at a track known for producing memorable moments? Tune in this weekend to find out, and keep checking back for the best bets and deepest insights all the way to the Abu Dhabi finale. Who will be crowned king of Formula 1 in 2024? The race to the crown resumes in Austin.

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