Best Bets: MotoAmerica Speedfest at Monterey 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for MotoAm Speedfest at Monterey 2024

Superbike

Top Picks and Bets

Cameron Petersen (+299) enters Laguna Seca as the favorite, his stock rising after a calculated victory in treacherous conditions at Ridge. With three wins already this season, Petersen’s strength lies in his adaptability – he’s equally comfortable in wet or dry conditions. His smooth, almost balletic style through flowing sections could prove decisive at Laguna, particularly in the infamous Corkscrew where bike balance is paramount. However, Petersen’s Achilles’ heel has been his starts; if he can nail the holeshot, he’ll be tough to beat.

Loris Baz (+375) is overdue for a breakthrough, and Laguna’s layout plays to his strengths. The Frenchman’s experience at this track from both MotoAmerica and WorldSBK gives him a unique perspective. Baz’s aggressive trail-braking technique could be a game-changer in the tight, technical sections like turns 2 and 11. His recent podium at Brainerd showcased improved tire management – crucial at Laguna where the abrasive surface can chew through rubber. Watch for Baz to be especially strong in the latter stages of the race.

Coming off a dominant performance at Ridge, Josh Herrin (+475) carries momentum into a track where he clinched his 2013 AMA Superbike title. Herrin’s resurgence coincides with recent updates to his Ducati’s electronics package, allowing for more nuanced traction control through Laguna’s off-camber turns. His aggressive style, particularly his late-braking prowess, could see him make decisive moves into the Andretti Hairpin. If Herrin can qualify on the front row, expect him to lead early and attempt to break the draft on Laguna’s short straights.

Outsider Picks

Don’t let the odds fool you – Cameron Beaubier (+612) is a sleeping giant at Laguna. With an unparalleled nine victories here, Beaubier’s knowledge of every bump and undulation is encyclopedic. His recent injury may have dulled his edge, but it’s also lowered expectations, allowing him to fly under the radar. Beaubier’s trademark high-corner speed could be especially potent through the fast turn 6, where many riders struggle to carry momentum. If he’s regained full strength in his surgically repaired heel, a tenth Laguna win isn’t out of the question.

Bobby Fong (+802) leads the championship by a whisker, his season defined by calculated consistency rather than outright speed. Laguna’s layout, with its emphasis on momentum, has historically favored high-corner-speed riders like Beaubier over Fong’s point-and-shoot style. However, Fong’s improved fitness and recent focus on smoothing out his riding could pay dividends. Keep an eye on his sector times through the technical turns 3-4 complex – if he’s quick there, it could signal a strong overall package.

Three-time defending champion Jake Gagne (+1066) finds himself in the unfamiliar role of underdog, grappling with persistent arm pump issues. However, Laguna’s relatively short lap length could work in his favor, allowing him to push hard for the entire race distance. Gagne’s strength has always been his metronomic consistency – if he can find a setup that alleviates his physical issues, his ability to reel off identical laps could see him climb through the field. The key for Gagne will be managing the first five laps; if he’s in touch with the leaders at that point, his experience in winning five times here could prove decisive.

Expert Pick for Superbike

Cameron Beaubier stands out as our Expert Pick for Laguna Seca. Despite his outsider status due to recent injury, Beaubier’s incredible record at this track cannot be ignored. His intimate knowledge of Laguna’s nuances, combined with his championship pedigree, makes him a formidable contender. If he’s regained full fitness, Beaubier’s trademark high-corner speed could see him return to the top step of the podium and reignite his title campaign.

Supersport

Top Picks and Bets

Mathew Scholtz (-167) enters Laguna Seca as the odds-on favorite, riding a wave of momentum after his dominant double victory at Ridge. The South African has found his groove on the Yamaha YZF-R6, claiming four wins in the last six races. Scholtz’s smooth riding style, honed during his years in Superbike, translates well to the undulating Laguna layout. His ability to conserve tires could be crucial, especially in the latter stages of the race where the track’s abrasive surface takes its toll. Scholtz’s recent form has seen him close the championship gap to just two points, adding extra motivation to his Laguna campaign.

PJ Jacobsen (+259) comes to Laguna hungry for redemption after a costly DNF at Ridge cost him the championship lead. Despite this setback, Jacobsen’s season has been marked by remarkable consistency, finishing on the podium in every race he’s completed. The Ducati Panigale V2’s torque advantage could play to Jacobsen’s favor, particularly on the uphill climb out of turn 5 and through the Corkscrew. With the championship lead now out of his grasp, expect Jacobsen to adopt a more aggressive strategy in his bid to reclaim the top spot.

Tyler Scott (+884) represents the new guard in Supersport, having already tasted victory this season. The young American’s raw speed and fearless approach make him a constant threat, particularly in qualifying where he’s shown the ability to pull out a blistering lap. Scott’s challenge will be to translate his one-lap pace into consistent race performance. If he can run at the front in the early laps and manage his tire wear, Scott could be a serious contender for the win.

Outsider Picks

Corey Alexander (+2757) has shown flashes of brilliance this season, including a recent podium finish at Brainerd. Alexander’s experience could be a key factor at Laguna, a track where local knowledge can make a significant difference. His ability to adapt to changing conditions could prove valuable, especially if the notorious Laguna fog rolls in and alters track temperatures.

Jake Lewis (+5191) is a seasoned campaigner who knows how to maximize his package. While he may not have the outright pace of the front-runners, Lewis’s consistency and race craft make him a dark horse for a strong result. His ability to conserve tires and make strategic passes in the latter stages of the race could see him pick up positions as others fade. Lewis’ outsider status makes him a valuable pick for those looking for a high-risk, high-reward bet.

Teagg Hobbs (+5425) has had a mixed season but remains a rider with significant potential. His ability to push through the field and secure respectable finishes is noteworthy. Hobbs’s underdog status could see him race with less pressure, allowing for a more relaxed and focused performance. A good start and consistent lap times could see Hobbs challenge the frontrunners at Laguna Seca.

Expert Pick for Supersport

In the Supersport class, Mathew Scholtz (-167) emerges as our Expert Pick. His recent dominant form, including four wins in the last six races, demonstrates he’s hit his stride on the Yamaha YZF-R6. Scholtz’s smooth riding style is well-suited to Laguna’s challenging layout, and his ability to manage tire wear could be crucial on the track’s abrasive surface. With momentum on his side and the championship lead within reach, Scholtz is primed for success at Laguna Seca.

King of the Baggers

Top Picks and Bets

Troy Herfoss (+106) has been the dominant force in Baggers this season, claiming five victories in six races. The Australian’s quick adaptation to the unique challenges of racing the big V-twins has been remarkable. Herfoss’s raw speed and the Indian Challenger’s power could be a potent combination on Laguna’s long front straight. However, the technical sections of the track will test Herfoss’s ability to hustle the heavy machine through quick transitions.

Kyle Wyman (+148) remains Herfoss’s closest challenger, consistently finishing on the podium and keeping the pressure on the championship leader. Wyman’s experience at Laguna Seca could prove crucial, especially in managing the tricky Corkscrew sequence. His ability to set up the Harley-Davidson for the diverse demands of Laguna – from the fast, flowing turns to the tight hairpins – will be key to challenging for victory.

Defending champion Hayden Gillim (+2001) has had a mixed season but showed signs of a resurgence with his double victory at Brainerd. Gillim’s knowledge of how to set up the Harley-Davidson for a championship push could see him return to form at Laguna. If he can recapture the speed that took him to the title last year, Gillim could throw a wrench in the Herfoss-Wyman duel at the front.

Outsider Picks

James Rispoli (+2438) has shown flashes of speed throughout the season on the factory Harley-Davidson. His experience as a former Supersport champion could prove valuable in navigating Laguna Seca’s technical sections. Rispoli’s ability to launch the heavy Harley off the line could see him fighting at the front in the early laps. If he can maintain that pace and manage tire wear, a podium finish is within reach.

Tyler O’Hara (+2471) is always a threat on the Indian Challenger. As a former champion in the class, O’Hara knows how to manage a race at Laguna Seca. His aggressive riding style could be particularly effective through the fast, flowing sections of the track. If O’Hara can qualify well and avoid getting caught in mid-pack battles, he has the pace to challenge for a top-three finish.

Cory West (+2930) has been consistently in the mix this season, showcasing his ability to extract performance from the Harley-Davidson platform. West’s smooth riding style could be advantageous in preserving tire life on Laguna’s abrasive surface. If he can find a setup that works well through the technical sections, particularly the Corkscrew, West could surprise the frontrunners and battle for a podium position.

Expert Pick for Baggers

For the Baggers class, our Expert Pick is Troy Herfoss (+106). The Australian has been nearly unstoppable this season, claiming five victories in six races. His quick adaptation to the unique demands of Baggers racing, combined with the power of the Indian Challenger, makes him a formidable force. Herfoss’s raw speed and growing experience in the class should translate well to Laguna’s diverse layout, from its long front straight to its technical sections.

Superbike Championship Futures Update

The Superbike Championship landscape has shifted dramatically following the Ridge round. Jake Gagne, despite his ongoing struggles with arm pump, remains the favorite but his odds have lengthened slightly, reflecting the tightening competition. Bobby Fong‘s consistent performances have solidified his position as a serious contender, while Josh Herrin‘s dominant win at Ridge has significantly boosted his championship prospects. Cameron Petersen‘s odds have drifted despite his recent wet-weather victory, indicating the bookmakers’ uncertainty about his overall championship challenge. The most notable change is Cameron Beaubier‘s odds, which have ballooned after his challenging return from injury, suggesting a steep uphill battle for the five-time champion to reclaim his crown.

Supersport Championship Futures Update

The Supersport Championship futures have undergone a seismic shift following the Ridge round. Mathew Scholtz has emerged as the overwhelming favorite, his odds shortening dramatically after his dominant double victory. This swing reflects his surge in form and newfound championship lead. PJ Jacobsen, previously the favorite, has seen his odds lengthen significantly due to his costly DNF at Ridge, though he remains the clear second choice. The rest of the field, including Jake Lewis, Tyler Scott, and Teagg Hobbs, have seen minor fluctuations in their long-shot odds, indicating the growing perception of a two-horse race between Scholtz and Jacobsen for the title.

Baggers Championship Futures Update

The Baggers Championship futures paint a clear picture of Troy Herfoss‘s dominance this season. His odds of -561 reflect his near-stranglehold on the title race, with five wins in six races. Kyle Wyman remains the only realistic challenger, though the significant gap in odds suggests bookmakers view Herfoss as the runaway favorite. The long odds for Tyler O’Hara, Rocco Landers, and Hayden Gillim indicate the uphill battle they face to contend for the championship. Notably, defending champion Gillim’s odds highlight how dramatically fortunes can change from season to season in this competitive class. The current odds suggest a two-man race, with Herfoss firmly in the driver’s seat

Where to Bet on MotoAm Speedfest at Monterey 2024

Elevate your MotoAmerica viewing experience by placing bets on your favorite riders and teams. We’re excited to announce our new partnership with Underdog Fantasy, a leading daily fantasy sports platform that offers unique betting opportunities in 30 states. With Underdog Fantasy, you can place real money better/worse picks on rider performances, adding an extra layer of excitement to the racing action.

Get the latest odds and exclusive offers at our partnered sportsbooks to place your bets. Don’t forget to delve into NXTbets’ official MotoAmerica Betting Guide for comprehensive insights and tips. 

As the MotoAmerica paddock descends on Laguna Seca, the stage is set for a weekend of high-stakes racing that could reshape the championship landscape. With nail-biting battles expected across all classes, don’t miss a moment of the action. Stay tuned for live coverage and expert analysis throughout this pivotal round of the 2024 season.

21+ Please refer to Affiliated Operators’ T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER