Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
The 2024 MotoGP season opener in Qatar laid a solid foundation for what’s expected to be a closely contested championship. Ducati’s Pecco Bagnaia showcased his intent to chase a third title with a strong performance, while KTM’s Brad Binder and Ducati’s Jorge Martin secured podium finishes, indicating their potential to challenge the top spot. Pedro …
Fabio Quartararo has signed a two-year contract with Honda that will begin under the new 850cc regulations in 2027. He will leave Yamaha at the end of the 2026 MotoGP season. The 26-year-old 2021 world champion made his MotoGP debut with Yamaha in 2019 and departs after recording 11 victories, 32 podiums, and 21 pole positions for the manufacturer. Despite a contract extension from Yamaha in April 2024 that met his financial demands, Quartararo has not won since the 2022 German Grand Prix and has managed only four podiums since 2023. He cited Yamaha’s lack of progress on its inline-four development as the decisive factor in his decision to move on and opted to leave before testing Yamaha’s new V4 for 2026.
Honda’s announcement locks in the factory team to field Quartararo under the incoming 2027 regulations, though the exact seat within Honda has not been confirmed. Joan Mir and Luca Marini were named in reports as possible vacancies because both are out of contract. The timing of the move was explicitly tied to the sport’s technical reset for 2027, making the regulatory change a major factor in the transfer. Motorsport reporting that preceded the announcement had framed a Quartararo-to-Honda switch as likely to reshape the rider market, with reporter Uri Puigdemont and others noting how an early high-profile move can accelerate negotiations across the paddock.
The deal makes the 2026 season a transitional or “shakedown” year for Quartararo and other riders as teams prepare for the new rules. However, it represents a significant personnel loss for Yamaha. Only a handful of riders, Toprak Razgatlioglu, Diogo Moreira, and Johann Zarco, have publicly confirmed contracts for 2027, underscoring how a confirmed signing of Quartararo could trigger downstream moves. Honda presented the contract as definitive for 2027–2028, framing the next chapters of the championship as a period of notable technical and market change across MotoGP.
Aprilia ran a private test at Jerez of its 2027 850cc MotoGP prototype, two days after the official post-race test, and released photos and video of the session. Test rider Lorenzo Savadori completed the prototype’s first on-track laps in wet conditions, and Aprilia said the engine had been running since the previous year. The private outing followed public 2027 shakedowns by KTM, Honda and Ducati, and Yamaha remained the only factory not to have publicly showcased a new 2027 bike, an early M1 prototype believed to have run privately in Japan. Savadori, who retired from the Jerez Sprint after contact with Toprak Razgatlioglu, said he would test new parts over the weekend that Aprilia planned to pass to factory riders Marco Bezzecchi and Jorge Martin.
The prototype displayed 2027-spec aerodynamic revisions, including a revised nose profile and a protruding front wing. Aprilia also fitted a novel flow diverter nicknamed “elephant ears,” two wing elements mounted at the sides of the front fairing that create a third tier of aerodynamic surfaces, and the team had introduced new upper-fairing winglets on the RS-GP26 during the official Jerez test.
Aprilia’s aero program, led by technical boss Fabiano Sterlacchini and aero head Marco De Luca, gathered additional data using a tail-mounted “satellite” sensor as the team sought to refine designs amid concerns that current aerodynamic concepts may be nearing performance limits. The outing was framed as part of broader development ahead of the 2027 rules change that will shift MotoGP to an 850cc formula, switch from Michelin to Pirelli tires, impose tighter aerodynamic limits, ban ride-height devices and require 100 percent non-fossil-origin fuel. The prototype’s track runs followed extensive bench testing and Pirelli tire work alongside Aprilia’s current 1000cc RS-GP, and the updates come amid lingering controversy over Aprilia’s earlier “leg wing” concept, which rivals largely copied and which Aprilia showed yielded measurable gains, with Aprilia leading the 2026 championship and locked in an aero arms race with Ducati as the two manufacturers compete for the 2026 title.
MotoGP, the world’s leading motorcycle championship, draws fans from all over the world. It features top teams and riders across over twenty Grands Prix every season. To catch up with the live action beyond geographical divides, most fans continue to embrace streaming services and broadcasters that bring the action live on screen. As a MotoGP …
Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
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Best Bets: 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds
The 2024 MotoGP season opener in Qatar laid a solid foundation for what’s expected to be a closely contested championship. Ducati’s Pecco Bagnaia showcased his intent to chase a third title with a strong performance, while KTM’s Brad Binder and Ducati’s Jorge Martin secured podium finishes, indicating their potential to challenge the top spot. Pedro …
Honda Signs Quartararo for 2027; Mir, Marini possible
Fabio Quartararo has signed a two-year contract with Honda that will begin under the new 850cc regulations in 2027. He will leave Yamaha at the end of the 2026 MotoGP season. The 26-year-old 2021 world champion made his MotoGP debut with Yamaha in 2019 and departs after recording 11 victories, 32 podiums, and 21 pole positions for the manufacturer. Despite a contract extension from Yamaha in April 2024 that met his financial demands, Quartararo has not won since the 2022 German Grand Prix and has managed only four podiums since 2023. He cited Yamaha’s lack of progress on its inline-four development as the decisive factor in his decision to move on and opted to leave before testing Yamaha’s new V4 for 2026.
Honda’s announcement locks in the factory team to field Quartararo under the incoming 2027 regulations, though the exact seat within Honda has not been confirmed. Joan Mir and Luca Marini were named in reports as possible vacancies because both are out of contract. The timing of the move was explicitly tied to the sport’s technical reset for 2027, making the regulatory change a major factor in the transfer. Motorsport reporting that preceded the announcement had framed a Quartararo-to-Honda switch as likely to reshape the rider market, with reporter Uri Puigdemont and others noting how an early high-profile move can accelerate negotiations across the paddock.
The deal makes the 2026 season a transitional or “shakedown” year for Quartararo and other riders as teams prepare for the new rules. However, it represents a significant personnel loss for Yamaha. Only a handful of riders, Toprak Razgatlioglu, Diogo Moreira, and Johann Zarco, have publicly confirmed contracts for 2027, underscoring how a confirmed signing of Quartararo could trigger downstream moves. Honda presented the contract as definitive for 2027–2028, framing the next chapters of the championship as a period of notable technical and market change across MotoGP.
Savadori posts wet laps on Aprilia 2027 850cc at Jerez
Aprilia ran a private test at Jerez of its 2027 850cc MotoGP prototype, two days after the official post-race test, and released photos and video of the session. Test rider Lorenzo Savadori completed the prototype’s first on-track laps in wet conditions, and Aprilia said the engine had been running since the previous year. The private outing followed public 2027 shakedowns by KTM, Honda and Ducati, and Yamaha remained the only factory not to have publicly showcased a new 2027 bike, an early M1 prototype believed to have run privately in Japan. Savadori, who retired from the Jerez Sprint after contact with Toprak Razgatlioglu, said he would test new parts over the weekend that Aprilia planned to pass to factory riders Marco Bezzecchi and Jorge Martin.
The prototype displayed 2027-spec aerodynamic revisions, including a revised nose profile and a protruding front wing. Aprilia also fitted a novel flow diverter nicknamed “elephant ears,” two wing elements mounted at the sides of the front fairing that create a third tier of aerodynamic surfaces, and the team had introduced new upper-fairing winglets on the RS-GP26 during the official Jerez test.
Aprilia’s aero program, led by technical boss Fabiano Sterlacchini and aero head Marco De Luca, gathered additional data using a tail-mounted “satellite” sensor as the team sought to refine designs amid concerns that current aerodynamic concepts may be nearing performance limits. The outing was framed as part of broader development ahead of the 2027 rules change that will shift MotoGP to an 850cc formula, switch from Michelin to Pirelli tires, impose tighter aerodynamic limits, ban ride-height devices and require 100 percent non-fossil-origin fuel. The prototype’s track runs followed extensive bench testing and Pirelli tire work alongside Aprilia’s current 1000cc RS-GP, and the updates come amid lingering controversy over Aprilia’s earlier “leg wing” concept, which rivals largely copied and which Aprilia showed yielded measurable gains, with Aprilia leading the 2026 championship and locked in an aero arms race with Ducati as the two manufacturers compete for the 2026 title.
Where to Watch MotoGP
MotoGP, the world’s leading motorcycle championship, draws fans from all over the world. It features top teams and riders across over twenty Grands Prix every season. To catch up with the live action beyond geographical divides, most fans continue to embrace streaming services and broadcasters that bring the action live on screen. As a MotoGP …