Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
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Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Polymarket
Use code MOTOGP to Deposit $10, Get $25 Trading Bonus
Dunlop has been named the official tire supplier and technical partner for the inaugural 2026 Harley‑Davidson Bagger World Cup, a new MotoGP support series. The appointment marks Dunlop’s return to the MotoGP paddock after supplying Moto2 and Moto3 until 2024, and builds on the company’s bagger‑racing work with the Harley‑Davidson x Dynojet program in MotoAmerica, which secured the 2025 riders’ and teams’ titles. Dunlop will supply dedicated racing tires and provide full technical and trackside support across the series.
The World Cup will run six double‑header rounds (12 races) on selected MotoGP weekends: Circuit of the Americas (Mar 27–29), Mugello (May 29–31), Assen (Jun 26–28), Silverstone (Aug 7–9), MotorLand Aragón (Aug 28–30) and the Red Bull Ring (Sep 18–20). Dorna confirmed the championship in mid‑2025 following a strategic partnership between MotoGP and Harley‑Davidson in late 2024. The new series takes the calendar slot of the MotoE World Championship, which is shelved for 2026. No teams or riders have been named yet.
Competitors will race identical Harley‑Davidson Road Glide machines prepared by the Harley‑Davidson x Dynojet Factory Race Team, powered by Screamin’ Eagle Milwaukee‑Eight 131 crate engines. The bikes are specified at roughly 280 kg, produce more than 200 hp, and can exceed 300 km/h. Dunlop will supply specific tire sizes (front 120/75 R17 and rear 200/65 R17), provide full on‑track tire service at each round, and administer a US$250,000 contingency prize fund with progressive payouts to the top ten finishers of each race plus a US$25,000 end‑of‑season champion bonus. Together, the factory‑prepared spec machines, integrated tire support, and substantial contingency program position the Bagger World Cup as a factory‑backed, high‑performance spec‑bike championship designed to showcase bagger racing on major international race weekends.
The thrilling conclusion of the Australian MotoGP at Phillip Island is still fresh in the minds of racing fans. Johann Zarco’s long-awaited debut victory, combined with Jorge Martin’s dramatic tire strategy misfire and Francesco Bagnaia’s tactical prowess to amplify his championship lead, left audiences worldwide on the edge of their seats.As the MotoGP caravan moves …
View Live Betting Odds Summer is on the horizon, which means the DGPT is closing out its duties in the USA before hopping the pond for the European season. Four days of play lie ahead out west as the world’s best players descend on Oregon for the 2026 Northwest Championship. Gannon Buhr leads the MPO …
Braselton, GA, welcomes the best track racing series in North America for a festival of competition from May 2nd to May 4th. P.J. Jacobsen leads the MotoAmerica Road Atlanta pre-event odds in the Supersport class, while Cameron Beaubier continues his dominance in the superbike race. King of the Baggers returns to the track with Kyle …
Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
swipe to see more
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Related Posts
Dunlop Named Official Tire Partner for 2026 Bagger World Cup
Dunlop has been named the official tire supplier and technical partner for the inaugural 2026 Harley‑Davidson Bagger World Cup, a new MotoGP support series. The appointment marks Dunlop’s return to the MotoGP paddock after supplying Moto2 and Moto3 until 2024, and builds on the company’s bagger‑racing work with the Harley‑Davidson x Dynojet program in MotoAmerica, which secured the 2025 riders’ and teams’ titles. Dunlop will supply dedicated racing tires and provide full technical and trackside support across the series.
The World Cup will run six double‑header rounds (12 races) on selected MotoGP weekends: Circuit of the Americas (Mar 27–29), Mugello (May 29–31), Assen (Jun 26–28), Silverstone (Aug 7–9), MotorLand Aragón (Aug 28–30) and the Red Bull Ring (Sep 18–20). Dorna confirmed the championship in mid‑2025 following a strategic partnership between MotoGP and Harley‑Davidson in late 2024. The new series takes the calendar slot of the MotoE World Championship, which is shelved for 2026. No teams or riders have been named yet.
Competitors will race identical Harley‑Davidson Road Glide machines prepared by the Harley‑Davidson x Dynojet Factory Race Team, powered by Screamin’ Eagle Milwaukee‑Eight 131 crate engines. The bikes are specified at roughly 280 kg, produce more than 200 hp, and can exceed 300 km/h. Dunlop will supply specific tire sizes (front 120/75 R17 and rear 200/65 R17), provide full on‑track tire service at each round, and administer a US$250,000 contingency prize fund with progressive payouts to the top ten finishers of each race plus a US$25,000 end‑of‑season champion bonus. Together, the factory‑prepared spec machines, integrated tire support, and substantial contingency program position the Bagger World Cup as a factory‑backed, high‑performance spec‑bike championship designed to showcase bagger racing on major international race weekends.
Best Bets: 2023 MotoGP Thailand Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds
The thrilling conclusion of the Australian MotoGP at Phillip Island is still fresh in the minds of racing fans. Johann Zarco’s long-awaited debut victory, combined with Jorge Martin’s dramatic tire strategy misfire and Francesco Bagnaia’s tactical prowess to amplify his championship lead, left audiences worldwide on the edge of their seats.As the MotoGP caravan moves …
Best Bets: 2026 DGPT Northwest Championship Pre-Event Odds Analysis
View Live Betting Odds Summer is on the horizon, which means the DGPT is closing out its duties in the USA before hopping the pond for the European season. Four days of play lie ahead out west as the world’s best players descend on Oregon for the 2026 Northwest Championship. Gannon Buhr leads the MPO …
Best Bets: MotoAmerica Road Atlanta Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Braselton, GA, welcomes the best track racing series in North America for a festival of competition from May 2nd to May 4th. P.J. Jacobsen leads the MotoAmerica Road Atlanta pre-event odds in the Supersport class, while Cameron Beaubier continues his dominance in the superbike race. King of the Baggers returns to the track with Kyle …