Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
The 2024 MotoGP season heads to the iconic Phillip Island for the Australian Grand Prix, a race known for its breathtaking scenery and unpredictable conditions. Francesco Bagnaia’s victory at Motegi, his eighth of the season, has brought him within 10 points of championship leader Jorge Martin. With just a few races left in the season, …
Gresini Racing confirmed that Iker Lecuona will replace Álex Márquez at the Hungarian Grand Prix at Balaton Park on June 5–7, the eighth round of the MotoGP season.
Márquez remains sidelined after a serious crash at the Catalan GP that left him with multiple injuries, including a fractured C7 vertebra. He missed Mugello and is ruled out of Balaton Park while he recovers.
Lecuona will race with number 27 aboard Gresini’s Ducati Desmosedici GP26. It will be his first MotoGP start since the 2023 Qatar GP and his first grand prix on a Ducati. A former Moto2 rider who stepped up to MotoGP with KTM before moving to WorldSBK in 2022, he has 37 premier-class starts and currently sits second in the WorldSBK standings after a run of P2 finishes.
Ducati test rider Michele Pirro filled in for Márquez at Mugello but was unavailable for Hungary because of a CIV commitment at Imola, so Gresini looked beyond its usual backup options. Gresini called the signing a short-term, pragmatic solution to ensure a prepared rider for the Balaton weekend while Márquez remains out.
An eight-second sanction for exceeding Michelin’s specified tire-pressure window demoted Pedro Acosta from third to eighth in the MotoGP Tissot Sprint at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA), promoting Enea Bastianini onto the Sprint podium. Bastianini had started 12th and crossed the line fourth on track before the penalty was applied, giving him his second Sprint podium with the Tech3 #23 KTM. He called the result “an unexpected podium,” said “finally, there weren’t 20 bikes in front of me,” praised the soft-tyre choice and the bike’s top speed, and blamed a qualifying mistake, straightline instability and the crosswind — “my worst enemy” — for his low grid slot and lingering acceleration issues out of Turn 11. Bastianini added that the result restored his confidence after difficult weekends in Thailand and Brazil and he hoped to carry that momentum into Sunday’s main race.
The on-track Sprint was won by Jorge Martin, who took the 10-lap victory by 0.755 seconds over Francesco Bagnaia after a decisive last-lap pass. Martin rode an Aprilia on Michelin control tyres and used a medium rear for the move. Several incidents reshuffled the final classification: on the opening lap pole-sitter Fabio Di Giannantonio and Marc Márquez made contact and both crashed (Márquez was later handed a long-lap penalty); Marco Bezzecchi crashed out after running near the front and failed to finish; and Joan Mir crashed out of fourth on the final lap.
Martin’s Sprint win moved him to the top of the world championship standings on 57 points, one ahead of Marco Bezzecchi on 56, with Acosta third on 49 after the penalty.
Heavy Thursday flooding at the Goiania circuit and a sinkhole discovered after qualifying disrupted the weekend and forced lengthy repairs, delaying the program by roughly 75–90 minutes. The interruption pushed the Sprint back and moved Moto2 qualifying to Sunday; late resurfacing work and visible surface failure on the pit straight further delayed the event.
Race Direction cut the feature race from 31 to 23 laps minutes before the start after track degradation became apparent. Parts of the circuit were reported to be breaking up and striking riders, prompting safety concerns and an on-camera confrontation between Aprilia team principal Davide Tardozzi and MotoGP boss Carlos Ezpeleta. The lap reduction came after riders had already locked in tire choices, a change teams and riders said affected strategy and outcomes.
Despite the disruption, Marco Bezzecchi led from the start of the shortened grand prix and took victory, holding off teammate Jorge Martín to give Aprilia a 1–2. Bezzecchi’s winning margin was about 3.2 seconds; it was reported as his second win of 2026 and extended his championship lead to 11 points. Some outlets described the result as Aprilia’s first premier-class one-two, while others noted it was the manufacturer’s fourth consecutive MotoGP win. The podium was completed by polesitter Fabio Di Giannantonio, who held off Marc Márquez—Márquez having won the Sprint the previous day. Several high-profile riders crashed out during the grand prix, including Jack Miller, Francesco Bagnaia (lap 11), Joan Mir and Brad Binder. Teams and riders said the weekend was defined as much by unusual circuit failures and extreme tire degradation as by the on-track contest. Jorge Martín said the hole was “off the racing line” and that “we could race even with the hole,” but mixed conditions—from heavy rain and flooding early in the weekend to scorching temperatures during the race—complicated set-up and tire strategy. With safety concerns and post-race controversy still under discussion, the championship moves on to the next round as teams assess the circuit damage and the decisions taken in Goiania.
Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Related Posts
Best Bets: MotoGP Australian GP 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
The 2024 MotoGP season heads to the iconic Phillip Island for the Australian Grand Prix, a race known for its breathtaking scenery and unpredictable conditions. Francesco Bagnaia’s victory at Motegi, his eighth of the season, has brought him within 10 points of championship leader Jorge Martin. With just a few races left in the season, …
Gresini names Iker Lecuona as short-term replacement for Márquez
Gresini Racing confirmed that Iker Lecuona will replace Álex Márquez at the Hungarian Grand Prix at Balaton Park on June 5–7, the eighth round of the MotoGP season.
Márquez remains sidelined after a serious crash at the Catalan GP that left him with multiple injuries, including a fractured C7 vertebra. He missed Mugello and is ruled out of Balaton Park while he recovers.
Lecuona will race with number 27 aboard Gresini’s Ducati Desmosedici GP26. It will be his first MotoGP start since the 2023 Qatar GP and his first grand prix on a Ducati. A former Moto2 rider who stepped up to MotoGP with KTM before moving to WorldSBK in 2022, he has 37 premier-class starts and currently sits second in the WorldSBK standings after a run of P2 finishes.
Ducati test rider Michele Pirro filled in for Márquez at Mugello but was unavailable for Hungary because of a CIV commitment at Imola, so Gresini looked beyond its usual backup options. Gresini called the signing a short-term, pragmatic solution to ensure a prepared rider for the Balaton weekend while Márquez remains out.
Bastianini back on Tech3 podium after COTA Sprint penalty
An eight-second sanction for exceeding Michelin’s specified tire-pressure window demoted Pedro Acosta from third to eighth in the MotoGP Tissot Sprint at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA), promoting Enea Bastianini onto the Sprint podium. Bastianini had started 12th and crossed the line fourth on track before the penalty was applied, giving him his second Sprint podium with the Tech3 #23 KTM. He called the result “an unexpected podium,” said “finally, there weren’t 20 bikes in front of me,” praised the soft-tyre choice and the bike’s top speed, and blamed a qualifying mistake, straightline instability and the crosswind — “my worst enemy” — for his low grid slot and lingering acceleration issues out of Turn 11. Bastianini added that the result restored his confidence after difficult weekends in Thailand and Brazil and he hoped to carry that momentum into Sunday’s main race.
The on-track Sprint was won by Jorge Martin, who took the 10-lap victory by 0.755 seconds over Francesco Bagnaia after a decisive last-lap pass. Martin rode an Aprilia on Michelin control tyres and used a medium rear for the move. Several incidents reshuffled the final classification: on the opening lap pole-sitter Fabio Di Giannantonio and Marc Márquez made contact and both crashed (Márquez was later handed a long-lap penalty); Marco Bezzecchi crashed out after running near the front and failed to finish; and Joan Mir crashed out of fourth on the final lap.
Martin’s Sprint win moved him to the top of the world championship standings on 57 points, one ahead of Marco Bezzecchi on 56, with Acosta third on 49 after the penalty.
Sinkhole and Track Failure Delay Goiania MotoGP; Laps Cut
Heavy Thursday flooding at the Goiania circuit and a sinkhole discovered after qualifying disrupted the weekend and forced lengthy repairs, delaying the program by roughly 75–90 minutes. The interruption pushed the Sprint back and moved Moto2 qualifying to Sunday; late resurfacing work and visible surface failure on the pit straight further delayed the event.
Race Direction cut the feature race from 31 to 23 laps minutes before the start after track degradation became apparent. Parts of the circuit were reported to be breaking up and striking riders, prompting safety concerns and an on-camera confrontation between Aprilia team principal Davide Tardozzi and MotoGP boss Carlos Ezpeleta. The lap reduction came after riders had already locked in tire choices, a change teams and riders said affected strategy and outcomes.
Despite the disruption, Marco Bezzecchi led from the start of the shortened grand prix and took victory, holding off teammate Jorge Martín to give Aprilia a 1–2. Bezzecchi’s winning margin was about 3.2 seconds; it was reported as his second win of 2026 and extended his championship lead to 11 points. Some outlets described the result as Aprilia’s first premier-class one-two, while others noted it was the manufacturer’s fourth consecutive MotoGP win. The podium was completed by polesitter Fabio Di Giannantonio, who held off Marc Márquez—Márquez having won the Sprint the previous day. Several high-profile riders crashed out during the grand prix, including Jack Miller, Francesco Bagnaia (lap 11), Joan Mir and Brad Binder. Teams and riders said the weekend was defined as much by unusual circuit failures and extreme tire degradation as by the on-track contest. Jorge Martín said the hole was “off the racing line” and that “we could race even with the hole,” but mixed conditions—from heavy rain and flooding early in the weekend to scorching temperatures during the race—complicated set-up and tire strategy. With safety concerns and post-race controversy still under discussion, the championship moves on to the next round as teams assess the circuit damage and the decisions taken in Goiania.