Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
We’ve waited three weeks to see the best riders back on track, and now we can look forward to three days of action. Marc Marquez takes pole position in the 2025 Austria MotoGP pre-event odds, coming off five consecutive victories, and extending his lead to 120 points in the series. The Spaniard’s teammate Francesco Bagnaia …
Yamaha’s new V4 engine suffered unexpected failures at the Sepang pre-season test, forcing a safety-first shutdown of factory running and disrupting the team’s program. An unforeseen fault first appeared on one of Fabio Quartararo’s bikes after his opening-day crash and was followed by a separate engine breakage on Toprak Razgatlioglu’s machine. Yamaha described the problem as something “we never had,” halting Wednesday’s running while engineers investigated, and kept garage doors closed as a precaution.
Engineers initially could not find the cause, but later identified the issue and allowed limited on-track activity, running the V4s with reduced power and rev limits to protect riders and equipment. The team removed long 60-70 lap runs and focused on ergonomics and sprint work. Yamaha intends to bring replacement engines ahead of the next two-day pre-season test at Buriram on February 21-22 to verify fixes and assess whether the imposed limits can be lifted, and warned that ambient temperatures above 30°C may exacerbate the faults.
The engine problems, combined with Quartararo’s crash, intensified scrutiny around the test. Spanish reports that Quartararo has decided not to renew with Yamaha, and instead reached an agreement with Honda, remain unconfirmed. The French rider has publicly denied signing for Honda while acknowledging he is in discussions. Team director Massimo Meregalli said the Sepang interruption was an unexpected delay that pushed some evaluations and contract talks toward the next test rather than changing decisions about Quartararo’s future. Alex Rins, the only factory Yamaha rider present, said the issue appeared under control and still managed his quickest laps of the test.
Pedro Acosta left Buriram having narrowed a clear development gap but still chasing the outright pace of Aprilia and Ducati. The 2026 RC16 was “doing no strange things,” he said, feeling more natural with reduced vibration and improved front-end feel. Acosta completed trouble-free 24–25-lap race simulations showing strong tire preservation and finished the two-day test as the fastest KTM in sixth, roughly 0.3s off Marco Bezzecchi’s benchmark. KTM’s factory and Tech3 teams said they had finalized their 2026 package and felt prepared for the Thai season opener.
Aprilia and Ducati underlined their status as the yardsticks at Buriram. Bezzecchi topped the test with a record 1’28.668 lap and strong long-run form (a 20-lap average around 1’30.4). Four Aprilias featured high on the timesheets, and Trackhouse-backed Ai Ogura was second, just 0.097s adrift. Ducati also showed competitive pace, with Marc Márquez, Francesco Bagnaia, and Álex Márquez filling the next positions. The older Márquez brother continued to post leading Sunday qualifying-simulation times despite crashes and illness.
Acosta and KTM framed the progress as tangible but incomplete, and praised Aprilia and Ducati’s race simulations as “awesome.” They warned that rivals’ exceptional simulations make preparation and starting position decisive, and suggested KTM could realistically start the season as the third-best manufacturer. With pre-season testing wrapped at Buriram, teams now turn to the Thai GP next weekend, where the first pole, Tissot Sprint, and race win of the season will be decided.
South Carolina prohibits all forms of sports wagering. Resident MotoGP enthusiasts cannot bet on qualifiers, races, or events. While the ban may be disappointing, especially for new residents, the state allows sports lovers to engage in Daily Fantasy Sports through platforms like Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks. Do not worry if you’ve just learned of Daily …
Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
swipe to see more
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Related Posts
Best Bets: 2025 Austria MotoGP Pre-Event Odds Analysis
We’ve waited three weeks to see the best riders back on track, and now we can look forward to three days of action. Marc Marquez takes pole position in the 2025 Austria MotoGP pre-event odds, coming off five consecutive victories, and extending his lead to 120 points in the series. The Spaniard’s teammate Francesco Bagnaia …
Yamaha Finds V4 Fault at Sepang, Limits Power in Testing
Yamaha’s new V4 engine suffered unexpected failures at the Sepang pre-season test, forcing a safety-first shutdown of factory running and disrupting the team’s program. An unforeseen fault first appeared on one of Fabio Quartararo’s bikes after his opening-day crash and was followed by a separate engine breakage on Toprak Razgatlioglu’s machine. Yamaha described the problem as something “we never had,” halting Wednesday’s running while engineers investigated, and kept garage doors closed as a precaution.
Engineers initially could not find the cause, but later identified the issue and allowed limited on-track activity, running the V4s with reduced power and rev limits to protect riders and equipment. The team removed long 60-70 lap runs and focused on ergonomics and sprint work. Yamaha intends to bring replacement engines ahead of the next two-day pre-season test at Buriram on February 21-22 to verify fixes and assess whether the imposed limits can be lifted, and warned that ambient temperatures above 30°C may exacerbate the faults.
The engine problems, combined with Quartararo’s crash, intensified scrutiny around the test. Spanish reports that Quartararo has decided not to renew with Yamaha, and instead reached an agreement with Honda, remain unconfirmed. The French rider has publicly denied signing for Honda while acknowledging he is in discussions. Team director Massimo Meregalli said the Sepang interruption was an unexpected delay that pushed some evaluations and contract talks toward the next test rather than changing decisions about Quartararo’s future. Alex Rins, the only factory Yamaha rider present, said the issue appeared under control and still managed his quickest laps of the test.
Bezzecchi Sets Buriram Record as Aprilia, Ogura Lead Pace
Pedro Acosta left Buriram having narrowed a clear development gap but still chasing the outright pace of Aprilia and Ducati. The 2026 RC16 was “doing no strange things,” he said, feeling more natural with reduced vibration and improved front-end feel. Acosta completed trouble-free 24–25-lap race simulations showing strong tire preservation and finished the two-day test as the fastest KTM in sixth, roughly 0.3s off Marco Bezzecchi’s benchmark. KTM’s factory and Tech3 teams said they had finalized their 2026 package and felt prepared for the Thai season opener.
Aprilia and Ducati underlined their status as the yardsticks at Buriram. Bezzecchi topped the test with a record 1’28.668 lap and strong long-run form (a 20-lap average around 1’30.4). Four Aprilias featured high on the timesheets, and Trackhouse-backed Ai Ogura was second, just 0.097s adrift. Ducati also showed competitive pace, with Marc Márquez, Francesco Bagnaia, and Álex Márquez filling the next positions. The older Márquez brother continued to post leading Sunday qualifying-simulation times despite crashes and illness.
Acosta and KTM framed the progress as tangible but incomplete, and praised Aprilia and Ducati’s race simulations as “awesome.” They warned that rivals’ exceptional simulations make preparation and starting position decisive, and suggested KTM could realistically start the season as the third-best manufacturer. With pre-season testing wrapped at Buriram, teams now turn to the Thai GP next weekend, where the first pole, Tissot Sprint, and race win of the season will be decided.
How to Play MotoGP DFS in South Carolina
South Carolina prohibits all forms of sports wagering. Resident MotoGP enthusiasts cannot bet on qualifiers, races, or events. While the ban may be disappointing, especially for new residents, the state allows sports lovers to engage in Daily Fantasy Sports through platforms like Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks. Do not worry if you’ve just learned of Daily …