Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
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Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Fabio Di Giannantonio’s hard, fair wheel-to-wheel duel with seven-time champion Marc Márquez defined his weekend at the 2026 Brazilian MotoGP, as he emerged third on the podium after a lengthy fight described as “aggressive but clean.” Di Giannantonio said he studied Márquez’s precision — particularly through left-hand turns — and “picked up a lot of ideas” about how to tackle the Spaniard in future races. The result gave Ducati its first podium of the year in the longer main race and was particularly meaningful to Di Giannantonio because it came from direct on-track combat with such an accomplished rival.
The podium followed a difficult build-up: Di Giannantonio had taken pole on Saturday and finished second in the Sprint after two mistakes handed victory to Márquez, then suffered a heavy crash in Sunday morning Warm Up that badly damaged his Ducati Desmosedici. VR46 Ducati mechanics repaired the bike in time and Di Giannantonio started the shortened Grand Prix — which had been cut by eight laps, a decision he learned about roughly six minutes before the race — despite reporting left-shoulder pain and intermittent loss of concentration from impacts under hard braking. He managed the discomfort through the early laps, found a rhythm and climbed to the podium, leaving Brazil with two podiums overall.
The weekend exposed technical gaps as much as it showcased racecraft. Di Giannantonio credited a small setup change and his crew for lifting him among the best Ducatis on the grid, but warned Aprilia had an advantage on the slippery, deteriorating asphalt and said Ducati must work on front-end stability to carry more speed through corners. Márquez, who finished fourth after a front-end washout on a patch of peeling asphalt and early tire discomfort, acknowledged the strength of Aprilia’s package and elected to back off after his off to protect championship points. Di Giannantonio’s podium also shifted the Ducati pecking order: he left Brazil as the top Ducati rider in the standings, three points clear of Márquez and 19 points behind championship leader Marco Bezzecchi. The result underlined both the value of close wheel-to-wheel racing as a development ground and the technical issues teams will need to address going forward; Ducati’s season-long podium run had already been broken in Thailand, ending an uninterrupted streak that dated back to Silverstone 2021.
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Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
swipe to see more
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
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Di Giannantonio third after wheel-to-wheel with Marquez
Fabio Di Giannantonio’s hard, fair wheel-to-wheel duel with seven-time champion Marc Márquez defined his weekend at the 2026 Brazilian MotoGP, as he emerged third on the podium after a lengthy fight described as “aggressive but clean.” Di Giannantonio said he studied Márquez’s precision — particularly through left-hand turns — and “picked up a lot of ideas” about how to tackle the Spaniard in future races. The result gave Ducati its first podium of the year in the longer main race and was particularly meaningful to Di Giannantonio because it came from direct on-track combat with such an accomplished rival.
The podium followed a difficult build-up: Di Giannantonio had taken pole on Saturday and finished second in the Sprint after two mistakes handed victory to Márquez, then suffered a heavy crash in Sunday morning Warm Up that badly damaged his Ducati Desmosedici. VR46 Ducati mechanics repaired the bike in time and Di Giannantonio started the shortened Grand Prix — which had been cut by eight laps, a decision he learned about roughly six minutes before the race — despite reporting left-shoulder pain and intermittent loss of concentration from impacts under hard braking. He managed the discomfort through the early laps, found a rhythm and climbed to the podium, leaving Brazil with two podiums overall.
The weekend exposed technical gaps as much as it showcased racecraft. Di Giannantonio credited a small setup change and his crew for lifting him among the best Ducatis on the grid, but warned Aprilia had an advantage on the slippery, deteriorating asphalt and said Ducati must work on front-end stability to carry more speed through corners. Márquez, who finished fourth after a front-end washout on a patch of peeling asphalt and early tire discomfort, acknowledged the strength of Aprilia’s package and elected to back off after his off to protect championship points. Di Giannantonio’s podium also shifted the Ducati pecking order: he left Brazil as the top Ducati rider in the standings, three points clear of Márquez and 19 points behind championship leader Marco Bezzecchi. The result underlined both the value of close wheel-to-wheel racing as a development ground and the technical issues teams will need to address going forward; Ducati’s season-long podium run had already been broken in Thailand, ending an uninterrupted streak that dated back to Silverstone 2021.
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Cooper Webb joined Chase Sexton as the winningest rider in 2025, when he took the checkered flag in round 15. Sexton leads the AMA Supercross round 16 Denver pre-event odds just ahead of the series lead, who is 12 points ahead of Chase in the Championship, heading into the penultimate round. Be a part of …