Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
MotoGP is one of the most exciting motorsports in the world. However, betting on it makes the sport even better as it is rewarding. The sharp turns, high speeds, and intense rivalries make betting on MotoGP quite strategic. This is because you have to test your knowledge of the sport through predictions. Most bettors often …
Do you ever find yourself caught up in the thrill of MotoGP but wonder whether you’re making the right decisions? MotoGP betting has increased in popularity, especially in the 2023 season finale. The finale attracted bettors and fans worldwide. Bettors are learning to take advantage of such events and invest in responsible betting. Responsible betting …
Cal Crutchlow will return to MotoGP at the Italian Grand Prix in Mugello as LCR/Honda’s replacement for Johann Zarco, the team confirmed after a Misano test cleared the 40-year-old British rider to race. Zarco was ruled out after a heavy crash in Catalunya/Barcelona that left him with significant knee and ankle injuries and awaiting surgery, a situation LCR described as likely long-term. The move preserves LCR/Honda’s entry while Zarco recovers and addresses an immediate personnel need for the team.
Crutchlow took part in a one-off private test at Misano to assess his physical condition and was given the green light to step into Zarco’s seat for the Mugello round. The Mugello start will be his first MotoGP race since a wildcard outing at the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix and will mark his 180th premier-class start. LCR team principal Lucio Cecchinello had said he wanted to field both LCR bikes at Mugello, and Diogo Moreira currently remains the only fit full-time LCR rider.
The short-term signing follows limited replacement options in the paddock. LCR’s regular test rider Takaaki Nakagami is occupied developing Honda’s 2027 850cc package and is unlikely to be available, and other potential stand-ins such as Aleix Espargaro remain in recovery. Crutchlow previously raced for LCR from 2015 to 2020, won three premier-class Grands Prix and achieved 19 podiums, then moved into a Yamaha test and reserve role with sporadic appearances through 2023. LCR and Honda framed Crutchlow’s return as a temporary solution while Zarco’s medical situation and the timing of any surgery remain unresolved.
Francesco Bagnaia begins the season under heavy scrutiny after a difficult 2025, when he struggled to adapt to Ducati’s GP25 and dropped to fifth in the championship. He finished 257 points behind teammate Marc Márquez, who recorded 11 wins and eight pole positions. Bagnaia’s contract runs through the end of 2026, and pundit Carlo Pernat warned that a repeat of 2025‑level results next season would be “unthinkable.”
Inside the factory garage, team boss Davide Tardozzi said Márquez “helped and protected” Bagnaia during the toughest moments of 2025, describing protective interventions on at least two occasions. Ducati engineers pointed to recurring GP25 issues briefly solved at the Japanese Grand Prix but later resurfacing as part of the explanation for Bagnaia’s dip in form.
At Ducati’s 2026 bike launch in the Dolomites, Bagnaia pushed back against what he called excessive criticism, saying roughly “90%” of the negative commentary was unnecessary. He rejected suggestions that the factory favoured Márquez and emphasised that riders can choose equipment and that the bikes are largely similar.
Off-track, Ducati says it is not yet negotiating a contract extension with Bagnaia. At the launch, he said he felt “extremely relaxed” about his future; some observers interpreted that as openness to leaving after 2026.
Reports conflict over Márquez’s situation. Some outlets report he has agreed a new deal with Ducati, others say Honda remains interested, and some articles reference an in‑principle agreement for 2027–28. Transfer speculation also names Pedro Acosta among possible future Ducati candidates. Potential destinations mentioned, should Bagnaia depart, include VR46, Aprilia (whose CEO Massimo Rivola called Bagnaia a “tempting” candidate), Honda, and Yamaha.
How Bagnaia performs on the GP26 in 2026, the timing and outcome of any contract decisions, and continuing rider‑market activity, including developments around Márquez and Acosta, will shape his standing at Ducati beyond 2026.
Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
swipe to see more
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
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MotoGP is one of the most exciting motorsports in the world. However, betting on it makes the sport even better as it is rewarding. The sharp turns, high speeds, and intense rivalries make betting on MotoGP quite strategic. This is because you have to test your knowledge of the sport through predictions. Most bettors often …
How Can You Bet Responsibly On MotoGP?
Do you ever find yourself caught up in the thrill of MotoGP but wonder whether you’re making the right decisions? MotoGP betting has increased in popularity, especially in the 2023 season finale. The finale attracted bettors and fans worldwide. Bettors are learning to take advantage of such events and invest in responsible betting. Responsible betting …
Misano test clears Crutchlow for short-term LCR Honda return
Cal Crutchlow will return to MotoGP at the Italian Grand Prix in Mugello as LCR/Honda’s replacement for Johann Zarco, the team confirmed after a Misano test cleared the 40-year-old British rider to race. Zarco was ruled out after a heavy crash in Catalunya/Barcelona that left him with significant knee and ankle injuries and awaiting surgery, a situation LCR described as likely long-term. The move preserves LCR/Honda’s entry while Zarco recovers and addresses an immediate personnel need for the team.
Crutchlow took part in a one-off private test at Misano to assess his physical condition and was given the green light to step into Zarco’s seat for the Mugello round. The Mugello start will be his first MotoGP race since a wildcard outing at the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix and will mark his 180th premier-class start. LCR team principal Lucio Cecchinello had said he wanted to field both LCR bikes at Mugello, and Diogo Moreira currently remains the only fit full-time LCR rider.
The short-term signing follows limited replacement options in the paddock. LCR’s regular test rider Takaaki Nakagami is occupied developing Honda’s 2027 850cc package and is unlikely to be available, and other potential stand-ins such as Aleix Espargaro remain in recovery. Crutchlow previously raced for LCR from 2015 to 2020, won three premier-class Grands Prix and achieved 19 podiums, then moved into a Yamaha test and reserve role with sporadic appearances through 2023. LCR and Honda framed Crutchlow’s return as a temporary solution while Zarco’s medical situation and the timing of any surgery remain unresolved.
Bagnaia’s Job at Ducati Uncertain After GP25 Struggles
Francesco Bagnaia begins the season under heavy scrutiny after a difficult 2025, when he struggled to adapt to Ducati’s GP25 and dropped to fifth in the championship. He finished 257 points behind teammate Marc Márquez, who recorded 11 wins and eight pole positions. Bagnaia’s contract runs through the end of 2026, and pundit Carlo Pernat warned that a repeat of 2025‑level results next season would be “unthinkable.”
Inside the factory garage, team boss Davide Tardozzi said Márquez “helped and protected” Bagnaia during the toughest moments of 2025, describing protective interventions on at least two occasions. Ducati engineers pointed to recurring GP25 issues briefly solved at the Japanese Grand Prix but later resurfacing as part of the explanation for Bagnaia’s dip in form.
At Ducati’s 2026 bike launch in the Dolomites, Bagnaia pushed back against what he called excessive criticism, saying roughly “90%” of the negative commentary was unnecessary. He rejected suggestions that the factory favoured Márquez and emphasised that riders can choose equipment and that the bikes are largely similar.
Off-track, Ducati says it is not yet negotiating a contract extension with Bagnaia. At the launch, he said he felt “extremely relaxed” about his future; some observers interpreted that as openness to leaving after 2026.
Reports conflict over Márquez’s situation. Some outlets report he has agreed a new deal with Ducati, others say Honda remains interested, and some articles reference an in‑principle agreement for 2027–28. Transfer speculation also names Pedro Acosta among possible future Ducati candidates. Potential destinations mentioned, should Bagnaia depart, include VR46, Aprilia (whose CEO Massimo Rivola called Bagnaia a “tempting” candidate), Honda, and Yamaha.
How Bagnaia performs on the GP26 in 2026, the timing and outcome of any contract decisions, and continuing rider‑market activity, including developments around Márquez and Acosta, will shape his standing at Ducati beyond 2026.