Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
We’ve waited three weeks to see the best riders back on track, and now we can look forward to three days of action. Marc Marquez takes pole position in the 2025 Austria MotoGP pre-event odds, coming off five consecutive victories, and extending his lead to 120 points in the series. The Spaniard’s teammate Francesco Bagnaia …
The thrill of the Austrian Grand Prix 2023 at the Red Bull Ring may have subsided, but the MotoGP world is already buzzing with anticipation for the upcoming clash at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. Spielberg witnessed a masterclass performance from Ducati’s Pecco Bagnaia, who not only won the race but also expanded his championship lead. …
Jorge Martin is stealing the headlines this week as the defending World Champion returns to competitive racing for the first time this year. The reigning title holder finds himself down the pecking order in the 2025 MotoGP Qatar Grand Prix pre-event odds, relegated by the Marquez brothers and Francesco Bagnaia. After reading our analysis, …
Marco Bezzecchi topped both Friday practice sessions at the Thai MotoGP in Buriram and produced a late lap that set a new record (one report put it at 1:28.526), finishing roughly 0.4 seconds clear of Marc Márquez. He credited his crew’s quick, last-minute reaction to looming storm conditions and praised improvements in Aprilia’s stability and weekend setup, but downplayed favorite status — “Marquez is the favorite, not me” and “I’ll be happy with a good start.” He declined to elaborate on aerodynamic rumours and warned that Ducati and Márquez will remain major obstacles going forward.
Márquez reached Q2 and was second fastest on Friday while still managing recovery from a shoulder injury that has limited his braking position and riding style. He rode with Ducati’s 2024-spec aerodynamic package to reduce strain on his right shoulder, said he was “not riding in an automatic way,” and reported feeling better on used tires than on new rubber. Starting the session on a medium rear tire was a calculated risk that nearly cost him a Q2 spot when light rain and a late pit call complicated track action; he called himself “lucky” to progress. He also acknowledged Bezzecchi and Aprilia looked a step ahead, in part because of their ability to exploit Michelin’s harder rear-tire construction.
Dark clouds, intermittent rain and strong winds repeatedly shaped the session, prompting teams to prioritize early banker laps and make rapid setup changes. Aprilia’s strong early running — at one point taking three of the top four places in practice — and Bezzecchi’s record lap gave the factory momentum into qualifying and the sprint, but riders and teams noted that Friday form, heavily influenced by weather and tire strategy, did not guarantee race-day performance.
Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
swipe to see more
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
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We’ve waited three weeks to see the best riders back on track, and now we can look forward to three days of action. Marc Marquez takes pole position in the 2025 Austria MotoGP pre-event odds, coming off five consecutive victories, and extending his lead to 120 points in the series. The Spaniard’s teammate Francesco Bagnaia …
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The thrill of the Austrian Grand Prix 2023 at the Red Bull Ring may have subsided, but the MotoGP world is already buzzing with anticipation for the upcoming clash at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. Spielberg witnessed a masterclass performance from Ducati’s Pecco Bagnaia, who not only won the race but also expanded his championship lead. …
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Jorge Martin is stealing the headlines this week as the defending World Champion returns to competitive racing for the first time this year. The reigning title holder finds himself down the pecking order in the 2025 MotoGP Qatar Grand Prix pre-event odds, relegated by the Marquez brothers and Francesco Bagnaia. After reading our analysis, …
Bezzecchi leads as rain, wind and tire gambits hit Buriram
Marco Bezzecchi topped both Friday practice sessions at the Thai MotoGP in Buriram and produced a late lap that set a new record (one report put it at 1:28.526), finishing roughly 0.4 seconds clear of Marc Márquez. He credited his crew’s quick, last-minute reaction to looming storm conditions and praised improvements in Aprilia’s stability and weekend setup, but downplayed favorite status — “Marquez is the favorite, not me” and “I’ll be happy with a good start.” He declined to elaborate on aerodynamic rumours and warned that Ducati and Márquez will remain major obstacles going forward.
Márquez reached Q2 and was second fastest on Friday while still managing recovery from a shoulder injury that has limited his braking position and riding style. He rode with Ducati’s 2024-spec aerodynamic package to reduce strain on his right shoulder, said he was “not riding in an automatic way,” and reported feeling better on used tires than on new rubber. Starting the session on a medium rear tire was a calculated risk that nearly cost him a Q2 spot when light rain and a late pit call complicated track action; he called himself “lucky” to progress. He also acknowledged Bezzecchi and Aprilia looked a step ahead, in part because of their ability to exploit Michelin’s harder rear-tire construction.
Dark clouds, intermittent rain and strong winds repeatedly shaped the session, prompting teams to prioritize early banker laps and make rapid setup changes. Aprilia’s strong early running — at one point taking three of the top four places in practice — and Bezzecchi’s record lap gave the factory momentum into qualifying and the sprint, but riders and teams noted that Friday form, heavily influenced by weather and tire strategy, did not guarantee race-day performance.