Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
The excitement of MotoGP Daily Fantasy Sports has attracted motorsport enthusiasts worldwide. MotoGP DFS allows you to pick an ideal lineup of racers for every race event. You win or lose depending on how your rider picks perform in real life. Unlike traditional sports betting, MotoGP DFS is a game of skill. It requires you …
Toprak Razgatlioglu delivered a downbeat assessment after the Sepang pre‑season MotoGP test, saying he expects to “probably struggle in the first five races” as he adapts from World Superbikes to MotoGP machinery. He completed the test with a best lap of 1:58.326, recorded around 18th–19th on the timesheets, well adrift of pacesetter Álex Márquez’s 1:56.402. After four-and-a-half days on track, he reported learning “something, but not a lot,” and said the five consecutive days left him physically tired, underlining how different the demands of a MotoGP race bike are compared with production‑based superbikes.
The Sepang sessions also exposed technical and setup problems within Yamaha’s new V4 package. The factory briefly halted running when a Yamaha V4 stopped on track, before resolving the engine issue and returning to action. Razgatlioglu highlighted ergonomic and handling challenges that “you can’t turn with the throttle,” and he has had to ride the YZR‑V4 more like a Moto2 machine, explaining that suspension changes are planned to improve turning. He reported improved braking after trying a different seat and reattaching the rear wing (earlier runs had the wing removed because his original seat exceeded height limits), but remained uncertain about Michelin rear‑tire wear and said tire behavior still limited his ability to hit his target lap time.
Others outside Yamaha framed Sepang as a learning and diagnostic outing. Pedro Acosta publicly urged Toprak to be cautious and not to overload expectations during his rookie transition, while Carlos Checa called him a likely top‑five rider but flagged two main uncertainties. The first is how well Yamaha’s new package will perform, followed by whether Toprak can adapt quickly to Michelin tires in the premier class. Yamaha plans further setup work and new parts at the Buriram test in just over two weeks, including additional rear‑wing trials and a possible 12‑lap race simulation to evaluate tire behavior. Taken together, the Sepang test highlighted both rookie adaptation issues and early reliability/setup and tire concerns for Yamaha’s V4 prototype, leaving Toprak’s immediate race competitiveness cautious rather than assured as the season opener approaches.
Gresini launched its 2026 campaign at a presentation in Kuala Lumpur held after the Sepang shakedown, confirming BK8 as title sponsor. Alex Márquez attended the event, but teammate Fermin Aldeguer missed it after breaking his left femur in Valencia in January. Both riders remain on Gresini’s roster for 2026 and are out of contract at the end of the year.
Márquez will ride a factory-spec Ducati GP26 in 2026, his first factory-spec machinery since 2020. The move reflects Ducati’s expansion of GP26 allocations to four bikes. Aldeguer is set to run the year-old 2025-spec GP25, confirming a two-tier setup within the team.
Márquez’s upgrade follows a strong 2025 in which he won at Jerez, Barcelona and Sepang and finished runner-up in the Championship. Aldeguer was Rookie of the Year after a win in Indonesia. Transfer-market chatter linking Márquez to KTM alongside Maverick Viñales was mentioned at the launch but remains speculative.
Gresini confirmed its immediate testing schedule around the official Sepang pre-season tests on February 3–5 and a second test on February 21–22, ahead of the season opener at Buriram on 1 March 2026. Márquez is scheduled to run the GP26 at the first Sepang test, while Aldeguer will miss that session as he continues rehabilitation. However, the latter is in contention for the February 21–22 test and the season opener.
The launch tied together sporting momentum, sponsorship continuity and near-term logistics as Gresini builds toward the opening rounds. With a string of wins since switching to Ducati in 2022 and a second-place finish in the 2025 teams’ standings, the outfit enters 2026 aiming to convert that form into another competitive campaign.
KTM has unveiled its 2026 MotoGP liveries and confirmed Red Bull title backing for both its factory team and Tech3 satellite outfit, while keeping the factory pairing of Pedro Acosta and Brad Binder and retaining Maverick Viñales and Enea Bastianini at Tech3.
Tech3 is under new ownership led by Guenther Steiner, with Richard Coleman appointed team boss. KTM also detailed key crew moves for 2026. Enea Bastianini will work with Andrés Madrid, Phil Marron will move into Brad Binder’s garage, and former Bastianini crew chief Alberto Giribuola has switched to Pramac.
The announcement followed a financially destabilising winter for KTM’s 2025 programme, which influenced personnel decisions and the early confirmations of lineups.
Looking back at 2025, KTM finished third in the Constructors’ standings and its factory entry was fourth in the Teams’ standings, becoming the highest-ranked non‑Ducati-powered team after overtaking Aprilia. Pedro Acosta emerged as the squad’s on-track leader, adopted setup elements from Maverick Viñales, took KTM’s first official podium of the year at Brno, and closed the year fourth in the world championship. He described the season as “a wasted year” despite personal progress. Brad Binder finished 11th overall without a podium. Tech3 endured a turbulent season. Viñales had a strong result in Qatar, chalked off for a tyre-pressure infringement, and was sidelined time with a serious shoulder injury at Sachsenring. Enea Bastianini scored a Grand Prix and Sprint podium midseason but faded after losing Giribuola, and substitute Pol Espargaró provided stability with four top-10s in five starts.
Contract positions and longer-term planning remain unresolved. Media reports say all four riders are out of contract at the end of the season, and Acosta has been linked with a potential move to a Ducati-run team. Coverage described KTM as weighing roster choices while preparing for the 2027 regulations and surveying the wider MotoGP market for options rather than relying on an obvious in-house successor. Some outlets named long-shot possibilities such as Francesco Bagnaia and Fabio Quartararo, but presented those as unlikely.
Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
swipe to see more
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
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The excitement of MotoGP Daily Fantasy Sports has attracted motorsport enthusiasts worldwide. MotoGP DFS allows you to pick an ideal lineup of racers for every race event. You win or lose depending on how your rider picks perform in real life. Unlike traditional sports betting, MotoGP DFS is a game of skill. It requires you …
Toprak: I’ll Probably Struggle First Five Races After Sepang
Toprak Razgatlioglu delivered a downbeat assessment after the Sepang pre‑season MotoGP test, saying he expects to “probably struggle in the first five races” as he adapts from World Superbikes to MotoGP machinery. He completed the test with a best lap of 1:58.326, recorded around 18th–19th on the timesheets, well adrift of pacesetter Álex Márquez’s 1:56.402. After four-and-a-half days on track, he reported learning “something, but not a lot,” and said the five consecutive days left him physically tired, underlining how different the demands of a MotoGP race bike are compared with production‑based superbikes.
The Sepang sessions also exposed technical and setup problems within Yamaha’s new V4 package. The factory briefly halted running when a Yamaha V4 stopped on track, before resolving the engine issue and returning to action. Razgatlioglu highlighted ergonomic and handling challenges that “you can’t turn with the throttle,” and he has had to ride the YZR‑V4 more like a Moto2 machine, explaining that suspension changes are planned to improve turning. He reported improved braking after trying a different seat and reattaching the rear wing (earlier runs had the wing removed because his original seat exceeded height limits), but remained uncertain about Michelin rear‑tire wear and said tire behavior still limited his ability to hit his target lap time.
Others outside Yamaha framed Sepang as a learning and diagnostic outing. Pedro Acosta publicly urged Toprak to be cautious and not to overload expectations during his rookie transition, while Carlos Checa called him a likely top‑five rider but flagged two main uncertainties. The first is how well Yamaha’s new package will perform, followed by whether Toprak can adapt quickly to Michelin tires in the premier class. Yamaha plans further setup work and new parts at the Buriram test in just over two weeks, including additional rear‑wing trials and a possible 12‑lap race simulation to evaluate tire behavior. Taken together, the Sepang test highlighted both rookie adaptation issues and early reliability/setup and tire concerns for Yamaha’s V4 prototype, leaving Toprak’s immediate race competitiveness cautious rather than assured as the season opener approaches.
Gresini confirms Márquez on GP26, Aldeguer on GP25
Gresini launched its 2026 campaign at a presentation in Kuala Lumpur held after the Sepang shakedown, confirming BK8 as title sponsor. Alex Márquez attended the event, but teammate Fermin Aldeguer missed it after breaking his left femur in Valencia in January. Both riders remain on Gresini’s roster for 2026 and are out of contract at the end of the year.
Márquez will ride a factory-spec Ducati GP26 in 2026, his first factory-spec machinery since 2020. The move reflects Ducati’s expansion of GP26 allocations to four bikes. Aldeguer is set to run the year-old 2025-spec GP25, confirming a two-tier setup within the team.
Márquez’s upgrade follows a strong 2025 in which he won at Jerez, Barcelona and Sepang and finished runner-up in the Championship. Aldeguer was Rookie of the Year after a win in Indonesia. Transfer-market chatter linking Márquez to KTM alongside Maverick Viñales was mentioned at the launch but remains speculative.
Gresini confirmed its immediate testing schedule around the official Sepang pre-season tests on February 3–5 and a second test on February 21–22, ahead of the season opener at Buriram on 1 March 2026. Márquez is scheduled to run the GP26 at the first Sepang test, while Aldeguer will miss that session as he continues rehabilitation. However, the latter is in contention for the February 21–22 test and the season opener.
The launch tied together sporting momentum, sponsorship continuity and near-term logistics as Gresini builds toward the opening rounds. With a string of wins since switching to Ducati in 2022 and a second-place finish in the 2025 teams’ standings, the outfit enters 2026 aiming to convert that form into another competitive campaign.
KTM Secures Red Bull Backing; Steiner-Led Tech3 Reboot
KTM has unveiled its 2026 MotoGP liveries and confirmed Red Bull title backing for both its factory team and Tech3 satellite outfit, while keeping the factory pairing of Pedro Acosta and Brad Binder and retaining Maverick Viñales and Enea Bastianini at Tech3.
Tech3 is under new ownership led by Guenther Steiner, with Richard Coleman appointed team boss. KTM also detailed key crew moves for 2026. Enea Bastianini will work with Andrés Madrid, Phil Marron will move into Brad Binder’s garage, and former Bastianini crew chief Alberto Giribuola has switched to Pramac.
The announcement followed a financially destabilising winter for KTM’s 2025 programme, which influenced personnel decisions and the early confirmations of lineups.
Looking back at 2025, KTM finished third in the Constructors’ standings and its factory entry was fourth in the Teams’ standings, becoming the highest-ranked non‑Ducati-powered team after overtaking Aprilia. Pedro Acosta emerged as the squad’s on-track leader, adopted setup elements from Maverick Viñales, took KTM’s first official podium of the year at Brno, and closed the year fourth in the world championship. He described the season as “a wasted year” despite personal progress. Brad Binder finished 11th overall without a podium. Tech3 endured a turbulent season. Viñales had a strong result in Qatar, chalked off for a tyre-pressure infringement, and was sidelined time with a serious shoulder injury at Sachsenring. Enea Bastianini scored a Grand Prix and Sprint podium midseason but faded after losing Giribuola, and substitute Pol Espargaró provided stability with four top-10s in five starts.
Contract positions and longer-term planning remain unresolved. Media reports say all four riders are out of contract at the end of the season, and Acosta has been linked with a potential move to a Ducati-run team. Coverage described KTM as weighing roster choices while preparing for the 2027 regulations and surveying the wider MotoGP market for options rather than relying on an obvious in-house successor. Some outlets named long-shot possibilities such as Francesco Bagnaia and Fabio Quartararo, but presented those as unlikely.