Jolyon Palmer told the F1 Nation podcast that talks between Max Verstappen and Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff “are going to happen” if Red Bull’s struggles continue and Mercedes remains the benchmark. Palmer framed this as conditional on on-track performance and timing, and pointed to last season’s tensions and earlier public rumours as context rather than announcing any confirmed move.

Supporters of that scenario point to Verstappen’s difficult start to the season: he has complained about the RB22 and suffered early reliability problems — reports say the car missed a battery at race starts in Australia and China and an ERS cooling failure forced his retirement in Shanghai — leaving him eighth in the standings on eight points. Mercedes’ strong early results, including wins in Australia and China and the China sprint, are taken by some as evidence the team may have the fastest package, and media reports also cite performance-related clauses in Verstappen’s Red Bull contract that are understood to potentially allow an early exit.

Wolff has publicly pushed back on immediate transfer talk, ruling out signing Verstappen for 2027 and calling recent reports “silly,” while also confirming he had long been interested in Verstappen and that he spoke with Verstappen’s manager in 2025 to probe a possible move under the incoming regulations. Verstappen remains contracted to Red Bull through 2028 after reportedly failing to meet the 2025 release-clause conditions; outlets say the clause was later relaxed to require a third-place finish, which increases the theoretical chance of a post-2026 move. Mercedes’s own driver stability, including extensions for George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, also complicates the market.

Commentators characterize any discussions as speculative and conditional, and there are no confirmed negotiations announced.

Sources