Denny Hamlin trails Kyle Larson by 40 points entering Charlotte

NXTbets Pro | Published On: October 8, 2026

Larson’s title surge

Kyle Larson has taken control of the Chase after five races, and his run has forced Denny Hamlin into chase mode. Larson erased a 55-point deficit to Hamlin and now leads the standings by 40 points after finishing fifth, first, second, first and second in the opening five playoff races. That stretch produced a 95-point swing and gave Larson a 2.2 average finish and 273 points, the best opening five-race start since the Chase format began in 2004. He won at Kansas and finished second at Las Vegas, which pushed Racing Insights to lift his title probability to 46.3%. The numbers show how quickly Larson has changed the race for the championship. His results have been steady, fast and hard to match, and they have turned him into the driver everyone else is trying to catch as the field moves into the final stretch.

Hamlin’s playoff slide

Hamlin entered the Charlotte race after a 16th-place finish at Las Vegas, a result that reflects how quickly his title picture has changed. He had been viewed as a strong favorite entering the playoffs, and a points reset cut his 89-point lead over Ryan Blaney to 25 points at the start of the Chase. Hamlin then went through a rough five-race stretch of his own, finishing 18th at Darlington, ninth at Gateway, eighth at Bristol, third at Kansas and 16th at Las Vegas. That kind of run has left his championship odds at just under 17%, a steep drop for a driver with 22 years in the Cup Series and no championship to show for it. The slide has not erased his place in the title fight, though it has made the margin for error much smaller. Hamlin still has strong track history at several of the remaining playoff venues, and that matters with the field moving toward the races that will settle the championship.

Charlotte’s championship stakes

Charlotte opens a critical stretch that also includes Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead-Miami, and those five races are expected to decide the championship. Hamlin’s path remains clear enough to matter. If he wins at Charlotte, his title odds would rise sharply. If he has another poor result, Larson could move to roughly a 90% chance to win the championship. That is the kind of pressure that defines this stage of the season. Larson has built his lead with results that have held up every week, while Hamlin has had enough good runs to stay close but not enough consistency to close the gap. The contrast is stark. Larson has produced the best numbers in the field through the opening five races. Hamlin has spent the same span trying to recover from a reset, a swing in the standings and a series of finishes that have kept him from making up ground. The next five races leave little room for either driver to slip, and Charlotte now sits at the center of that race.