F1 Bahrain Grand Prix Betting Nuggets & Trends

The Track

The Bahrain International Circuit, unlike last week’s Suzuka Circuit at the Japanese Grand Prix, is more prone to overtaking. Sunday’s track has three drag-reduction-system (DRS) zones and there are three corners that are heavy on the brakes, which lends itself to more movement.

Starting grid positions 1-6 did not change from qualifying to race result last week in the Japanese GP.

Red Bull vs. McLaren…Again

Last week, we said to keep an eye out for Max Verstappen to continue his dominance in Japan and win his first race in 2025. After his fourth consecutive win in the Japanese GP, his 61 points this season trail McLaren’s Lando Norris by 1 in the standings.

Verstappen, who has won the Bahrain GP each of the last two years, started at the pole last week and was able to hold off any overtaking during the race. That will be more challenging Sunday if he starts from the pole again given the track. Since 2018, 66.6% of top-three qualifiers in the Bahrain GP finished in the top three compared to 80% in the Japanese GP.

Norris and his McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri, who ranks third with 49 points, are each looking for their first win in Bahrain. They had the two fastest times in Practice Two (Piastri was first) while Verstappen came in seventh.

Temperature Impact

Pirelli will bring the same selection of tire compounds as the Japanese GP (C1, C2 and C3), but drivers will need a different approach Sunday.

The forecast for the race in Sakhir is 91 degrees, about 30 degrees warmer than in Suzuka last week. It’s beneficial for drivers the pre-season test was in Bahrain, but Sakhir had atypical weather for that time of year that resulted in cooler air and track temperatures.

Ferrari Tweaks Car

Ferrari is coming off its best race of the season after Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton finished fourth and seventh, respectively, in the Japanese GP.

Ferrari tweaked its car with six upgrades, including the floor, heading into Bahrain where Leclerc, who won in 2022, finished fourth last year. Hamilton’s five wins in Bahrain are the most in F1 history and he’s won three times since 2018 (most recently 2021).

We expect the changes will help Hamilton, who said he’s “very relieved and excited” about the new floor. He finished third in Practice One and Leclerc finished fourth in Practice Two.

Both Ferrari’s to finish in the top six comes in at -120.

Expert Pick
McLaren to have the fastest lap on race day comes in at -105, but we think the best way to bet on McLaren win is fastest lap AND win. Norris’ odds come in at +300 and +500 for Piastri.

Will Carlos Sainz Make Return to Preseason Form?

Carlos Sainz has not had a good start to the 2025 season in his first season with Williams after four with Ferrari and has 1 point in three races. He did not finish the Australian GP and finished No. 10 and No. 14 in China and Japan, respectively.

Sainz’s return to Bahrain, where he set the pace on the second day during the preseason, could help his results. He finished on the podium in two of the last three years — second in 2022 and third last year.

He said he was pleased with the speed in Australia and Japan and is trying to get the car to feel similar to the preseason “because there I felt like I was up to speed, driving fairly natural and I didn’t have to think so much about driving.”