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Futures Friday: F1 Drivers Championship Odds & Analysis

We are well into the business end of the season. The F1 Drivers Championship odds have remained relatively stable this year as the favorite Verstappen dominated the first half of the season. 

However, a mixed bag of results from the Dutchman has left an opening for Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc to exploit. Time is running out with only 4 grand prix races and two sprints remaining. Can the chasers catch the defending champion?

 

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F1 Drivers Points 2024

Driver

Points

Difference

Max Verstappen

362

Lando Norris

315

47

Charles Leclerc

291

71

Oscar Piastri

251

111 

 

Max Verstappen

 

The “flying Dutchman” has a 47-point buffer at the top of the driver’s standings, accruing 362 points in total. He racked up most of his points in the first half of the season, claiming 7 victories. His last trip to the winner’s circle was back in June at the Spanish Grand Prix.

 

Lando Norris

 

“Last Lap Lando” is leaving his title challenge to the end, needing to gain 47 points in the final 4 races of the season. He also has two sprint events to make up the difference. The young Briton has finished on the podium 6 times in his last 9 events, highlighting his sensational form late in the season.

 

Charles Leclerc

 

The truth is that the 2024 F1 Championship is likely just out of reach for Leclerc. He would need to win most of the remaining events and hope that Verstappen fails to pick up any points, which last happened at the Australian Grand Prix in March.

 

Oscar Piastri

 

Speaking of Australia, the Melburnian Oscar Piastri is still in with an outside chance of claiming the title. However, the three drivers ahead of him must falter significantly in the final 4 outings of the season.

F1 Drivers Championship Odds Movement

Driver

Current Odds

$20 Payout

Start of Season

$20 Payout

Odds Improvement %

Max Verstappen

-425

$24.71

-370

$25.41

14.86%

Lando Norris

+300

$80.00

+750

$170.00

60%

Charles Leclerc

+2500

$520.00

+2200

$460.00

−13.64%

Oscar Piastri

+25000

$5020.00

+2000

$420.00

−1150%

Max Verstappen Drivers Champions Odds

 

Verstappen began the season as favorite and he’s maintained the status quo. His odds strengthened from -370 at the start of the season to -425 going into the Brazilian Grand Prix. Despite his favorite tag, he’s being chased down by Norris whose odds have seen the largest improvement throughout the season.

Lando Norris Futures Odds

 

Lando started at +750, but his stock has risen throughout the year pricing him at +300 today. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 5 since the Austrian Grand Prix back in June. Leclerc and Piastri’s odds are higher today than at the start of the season, highlighting the monumental task they face in the final showdowns.

Expert Pick for F1 Drivers Championship

The chaser, Lando Norris is our pick to win the driver’s championship despite punters still favoring Verstappen. The youthful Brit has stood on the podium 12 times this season highlighting the consistency of his driving. His current odds of +300 are favorable and a $20 bet pays approximately $80.

 

F1 Constructors Championship Standings

Team

Points

Difference

McLaren Mercedes

566

Ferrari

537

29

Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT

512

54

Mercedes

366

200

McLaren Mercedes vs Ferrari

 

The race for the 2024 F1 Constructors Title may come down to the wire. McLaren are out in front by 29 points thanks to a stellar year by their youthful duo Piastri and Norris. 

 

Ferrari is within touching distance and has the class of Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc to pull it off. The Italian team enjoyed a successful trip to Mexico City last weekend, winning first, third, and the fastest lap.

Red Bull

Momentum isn’t on Red Bull’s side. They are only 54 points behind McLaren, but with Verstappen and Perez far off their best, it seems like a mammoth task. The Dutchman has contributed most of the points to his team since April, as Perez has struggled to find the podium since the China Grand Prix. 

Mercedes

Mercedes still has a mathematical chance of winning the constructors championship, but it’s. They need to get maximum points in the remaining sprints and Sunday races. At the same time McLaren, Ferrari, and Red Bull mustn’t earn a point.

F1 Constructors Championship Betting

Driver

Current Odds

$20 Payout

Start of Season

$20 Payout

Odds Improvement %

McLaren

-260

$27.69

+700

$160.00

137.14%

Ferrari

+190

$58.00

+800

$180.00

76.25%

Red Bull

+5000

$1020.00

-475

$24.21

−1153.68%

Mercedes

+50000

$10,020.00

+800

$180.00

−6150%

McLaren

Sports bettors believe that McLaren is 137% more likely to win the constructors compared to the start of the season. Prior to the Bahrain Grand Prix, the British outfit was paying $160 on a $20 wager. Today, the same punt pays approximately $27.69. Their odds have improved by 137.14% throughout the year, not the greatest news for bettors.

Ferrari

Ferrari entered the season with +800 odds to win the team championship. They’ve proved bettors wrong by putting themselves into serious contention, and now carry odds of +190. A $20 bet in March 2024 would’ve paid out $180, now it might yield you $58.

Red Bull

The defending champions began the year at -475, and now sportsbooks have them at +5000. Wagering $20 on Red Bull this week offers a payout potential of $1020 should they lift the trophy. 


Mercedes

The German team isn’t a smart bet at this stage, as they require all kinds of luck to win the constructors. For interest sake, the potential payout is $10,020 on a $20 wager, which is attractive but unwise.

Expert Pick for F1 Constructors Championship

The second favorites Ferrari is our pick to win the constructors for the first time since 2008. Besides two DNF results, Sainz has finished every race inside the top 7 this season. His teammate Leclerc has passed the checkered flag inside the top 5 in his last 8 races. They are the in-form team in the latter part of the season and are priced fairly. A $20 stake on the red team pays approximately $58.

Where to Bet on F1

Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your Formula 1 betting experience. If you’re a newbie in the world of F1 betting, our comprehensive Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely.

Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.

 

There are 4 races remaining in the 2024 F1 season, presenting a pivotal opportunity for the leading protagonists. Can Norris maintain his scintillating form and further erode Verstappen’s points lead? Will the defending champ rediscover his early-season dominance?

 

Or might an outsider spring a surprise at a track known for producing memorable moments? Tune in this weekend to find out, and keep checking back for the best bets and deepest insights all the way to the Abu Dhabi finale. Who will be crowned king of Formula 1 in 2024?

 

21+ Please refer to Affiliated Operators’s T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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