Hamlin Says He’s Two Wins From Erasing Larson’s Edge
NXTbets Pro | Published On: October 5, 2026
Larson’s 40-point lead
Chase Briscoe won the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and the race closed the first half of the 10-race NASCAR Cup Series Chase with five races left. Kyle Larson finished second after his No. 5 team took an early hit on pit road. A long adjustment stop sent him a lap down before the team fought back. Larson returned to the lead lap after Denny Hamlin crew chief Chris Gayle pitted under a Lap 44 caution. The finish left Larson 40 points ahead of Hamlin with five races remaining.
Larson’s position comes with strong recent form. Over the previous five races, he averaged a 2.2 finish. He also averaged 54.6 points per race over the first five playoff races, a pace that kept him in control of the standings even with the setback in Las Vegas. The runner-up result helped limit the damage from the early trouble and kept his margin intact as the Chase moved past the midpoint.
Hamlin’s rough stretch
Hamlin had a far tougher night. He later spun and suffered underbody damage, then lost all stage points and finished 16th at Las Vegas. His first five playoff finishes were 18th, ninth, eighth, third and 16th. He averaged 35.6 points per race over that stretch, a total that left him chasing Larson instead of building pressure on the front of the standings.
The contrast between the two drivers has been clear over the last five races. Hamlin averaged a 10.8 finish over that span, while Larson averaged a 2.2. Hamlin entered the playoffs as the top seed, but the results have not matched that position. Before this stretch, he said he needed a 40-point pace. The Las Vegas race showed how difficult that can be when one mistake or setback changes the day. Hamlin’s loss of stage points made the gap harder to close and pushed the burden back on the next few events.
Final five tracks
Hamlin still sees a path. He said the final five tracks, including Charlotte, Phoenix and Martinsville, give him a chance to cut into Larson’s lead. He also said he is trying to avoid burnout, a sign that the grind of the Chase is part of the challenge as much as the points battle itself. The message from Hamlin was direct. He still believes he is only a couple of wins from erasing the deficit.
That belief has to carry him through a stretch that now leaves little room for error. The Chase is down to five races, and Larson holds the edge after surviving a pit-road setback and finishing second. Hamlin’s day at Las Vegas cost him stage points and kept him in pursuit mode. His results through the first five playoff races have left him with work to do, but the final run of races gives him the kinds of tracks where he says he can make up ground.
