Marc Márquez’s move to Ducati has shifted from likely to near-certain after his dominant 2025 season and subsequent reporting. He finished 2025 with 11 Grand Prix wins, 15 Sprint wins, eight poles and 15 podiums, securing the world title with rounds to spare. Multiple outlets and Ducati’s presentation in Madonna di Campiglio have pushed the odds of a two-year extension to roughly 90 percent, with team and paddock comments saying Ducati aims to formalize the deal before the 2026 season—preferably after the Sepang tests in Kuala Lumpur—though a small chance remains that he could stay with Honda.

Márquez himself has described a “9 out of 10” chance of renewal, said he would not veto a teammate and named staying with Ducati as his first option for 2027. He signalled he may delay a final decision while weighing professional and personal considerations, confirmed any move would be for two years, noted that manufacturers are increasingly shaping rider placements, and said he is targeting a return to full fitness after the right-shoulder injury that ended his 2025 campaign.

Ducati’s push to lock Márquez in is already affecting its current lineup. Francesco Bagnaia, who struggled in 2025 and finished fifth in the standings, is under pressure; reports suggest a likely salary cut and that he could consider offers from Honda or Yamaha if Ducati changes its pairing. The factory is publicly evaluating candidates for the other 2027 seat, with Pedro Acosta frequently named as the frontrunner — Acosta has been described as “very keen” to join Ducati and the factory is said to reciprocate. Claims that Acosta has already been signed for 2027 circulated after comments from Massimo Rivola, and outlets have also mentioned Nicolò Bulega as a conditional option should he succeed in World Superbike. An Acosta arrival would reshape Ducati’s long-term pairing and could create the manufacturer’s first all-Spanish lineup, as the team balances sporting needs and commercial pressures while defending the title.

Those Ducati decisions are reverberating across the MotoGP market. Pundits and teams view Márquez’s signature as a pivotal trigger for a domino effect that could reconfigure seats involving riders such as Fabio Quartararo, Joan Mir and Maverick Viñales, while Marco Bezzecchi is widely expected to remain at Aprilia. Honda, having lost the prospect of Márquez’s return, is reported to be preparing an aggressive recruitment response — described in the paddock as a “big, fat chequebook” — targeting names such as Pedro Acosta and David Alonso and, if necessary, promoting talent like Diogo Moreira from within. Journalists are also discussing retention or reshuffle possibilities for riders including Luca Marini, Johann Zarco and Joan Mir. With most top contracts expiring at the end of 2026 and new technical regulations due in 2027, teams and manufacturers are moving quickly; several commentators expect the two or three most sought-after 2027 deals to be settled well before the season opener in Buriram, setting the stage for an active silly season ahead of the 2026 season.

Sources