Mercedes upgrade could boost Norris and Piastri

Oscar Piastri warned that the pecking order revealed at the season-opening Australian Grand Prix will not determine who succeeds under the new rules. He said McLaren are “in the mix” but not in the same position they occupied 12 months ago and expressed confidence in the team’s engineers to close early gaps. McLaren enter the year as defending two-time constructors’ champions and Lando Norris is the reigning drivers’ champion. Former driver-turned-pundit Anthony Davidson suggested the new cars could suit Piastri, a view reinforced by Norris, who said the new car felt “similar to driving a Formula 2 car.” Those comments underline how the regulation changes have altered which driving styles are favored.

This season’s regulation overhaul has materially changed handling and power-unit characteristics: teams are targeting roughly a 50/50 electrical/combustion power split, electrical energy has increased by about three times, the MGU-H has been removed, and the cars are around 200 mm shorter and 100 mm narrower. Those changes affect harvesting, deployment and overall car balance, and will reshape which teams and drivers benefit as development progresses. McLaren’s technical staff stressed that adapting to the rules will be decisive; chief designer Rob Marshall said the MCL40 is highly complex and places a heavy workload on drivers, that pre-season testing focused on understanding the car’s behavior and on exploiting hybrid energy recovery and deployment, and he judged the car’s foundation reasonably strong but warned the team must quickly dial in optimum settings and sustain an aggressive development programme. Team principal Andrea Stella acknowledged Mercedes and Ferrari looked “a step ahead” after Bahrain testing but cautioned that early pace may not hold as development converges, and the Albert Park weekend and the harvesting/deployment challenges teams experienced there were particularly instructive.

Power-unit access is an immediate factor in McLaren’s prospects: Bahrain data indicated McLaren ran an older-spec Mercedes power unit and switching to Mercedes’ updated specification, possibly ahead of FP1 at Albert Park, could unlock untapped performance and potentially put Norris and Piastri back into race-winning contention. In testing McLaren appeared third or fourth fastest while Charles Leclerc topped the final day. Accusations emerged that Mercedes ran closer to an 18:1 effective compression ratio in race conditions versus the 16:1 regulatory limit, and the FIA has proposed additional power-unit testing at ambient temperature and at 130°C from August. Toto Wolff called the issue a “storm in a teacup,” while Ferrari’s Fred Vasseur warned against expecting a quick fix. If FIA tests find a breach and Mercedes subsequently fails checks, teams using Mercedes power — including McLaren — could face mid-season power losses. For McLaren and Piastri, the campaign will therefore hinge on rapid on-track development, reliable access to any upgraded Mercedes specification, and how quickly the team adapts to the new technical landscape.