The popularity of parlay betting has been on the rise for years and is becoming an industry leader in the sports betting landscape. At the heart of this trend is the moneyline parlay, which is a straightforward yet high-stakes wager that combines multiple bets on teams to win their games outright.
Its simplicity is the reason why it appeals to many punters – you do not need to concern yourself with point spreads, only with picking winners. This structure, combined with the potential for substantial payouts from a small investment, makes moneyline bets an exciting option for many.
In this article, NXTbetswill provide a comprehensive analysis of moneyline-focused NFL parlays. We will discuss the strategic approaches to building moneyline parlays and the essential tools for making informed decision-making.
You must comprehend how moneyline parlays are built, the mathematical principles governing their risk, and the strategic roles of favorites and underdogs.
How Moneyline Parlays Work
A moneyline parlay is a wager that links together two or more individual moneyline bets referred to as legs. For the parlay to be successful, every selected team must win its game outright. If even one leg of the parlay fails, the entire wager is lost.
The sportsbook multiplies the odds of each selection together, resulting in significantly higher potential returns compared to placing each bet separately. For example, a three-team moneyline parlay consisting of favorites can turn modest individual odds into an attractive overall payout. An example is a ticket with these three legs :
Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-270)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline (-310)
Green Bay Packers Moneyline (-150)
While three separate $100 wagers on these teams would yield modest individual profits, combining them into a single $100 parlay results in a +202 payout, generating a $202 profit if all three teams win.
Probability, Implied Odds & Risk
The high reward of a parlay is directly balanced by its high risk, a reality rooted in probability. Every set of betting odds carries an implied probability, which is the likelihood of an outcome occurring as suggested by the odds. For example, odds of -110 have an implied probability of 52.4%, while odds of +200 imply a 33.3% chance of winning.
When legs are combined into a parlay, the implied probability of winning the overall bet decreases with each addition. This is because the sportsbooks have a built-in advantage, known as the vig or house edge. This house edge compounds across every leg of the wager. A single bet at -110 odds already carries a house edge; a parlay multiplies this edge from each leg into the final price. This structural disadvantage is why sportsbooks report significantly higher hold percentages on parlays.
Value of Favorites vs Underdogs in Moneyline Parlays
The choice between including favorites or underdogs in a moneyline parlay defines the strategic approach. Parlaying heavy favorites is a common tactic used to generate a more appealing return from teams that have a high probability of winning but offer low individual payouts. Historically, NFL moneyline favorites win approximately 66.6% of the time, making them seem like safe additions to a parlay.
However, this strategy comes with a significant risk known as chalk overload. The more heavy favorites included in a parlay, the greater the cumulative chance that one of them will be an upset. Because the overall payout on a heavy-favorite parlay is relatively low, one unexpected loss can negate the profits from many previous wins.
On the other hand, including even one underdog acts as a powerful odds multiplier, increasing the potential payout of the parlay. The key is to find value in an underdog whose chances of winning are greater than the implied probability of their odds.
Strategy for Building Smart Moneyline Parlays
Constructing a successful moneyline parlay requires an analytical approach that goes beyond picking teams that are expected to win. The most effective strategies focus on identifying value, managing risk, and maintaining strict bankroll discipline.
Leg Selection Criteria
A careful selection of each leg forms the foundation of a strong parlay. An effective strategy is not merely about identifying the most likely winners, but also about finding instances of mispriced value.
A profitable parlay is essentially a chain of positive expected value (+EV) bets, where the bettor’s analysis indicates that a team’s actual probability of winning is higher than the implied probability of the sportsbook’s odds. This shifts the focus from “who will win?” to “which odds are incorrect?”
Each leg should be supported by thorough research on key factors such as critical player injuries, significant statistical mismatches (an elite rushing offense against a poor run defense), home-field advantage, and recent performance trends. Expert analysis from sources like BettingPros and CBS Sports can also provide valuable perspectives and highlight potential opportunities that may have been overlooked.
Optional Number of Legs
There is a broad consensus among betting experts that smaller parlays are more sustainable for long-term success. Most recommend sticking to two- or three-leg parlays. This approach offers a significant odds boost compared to a single bet but keeps the implied probability of winning within a reasonable range. While a large, eight-team parlay with +18000 odds is tempting, its implied probability of success is a mere 0.55%, making it a poor long-term investment.
When to Include Underdogs
Underdogs should be incorporated into a parlay selectively and only when there is a strong, data-backed reason to believe they are undervalued by the market. Including an underdog with positive moneyline odds (e.g., +150) can transform a modest parlay of favorites into a highly lucrative ticket. The goal is to identify underdogs with a clear path to victory that the betting public may be overlooking.
Certain historical trends can be helpful; for example, NFL home underdogs with a point spread of +3 or less have won their games outright 42.7% of the time since 2003, a rate that often provides positive value against their typical moneyline odds.
Timing & Line Shopping
The timing of a parlay bet can be critical. Placing wagers early in the week may allow a bettor to capitalize on initial lines before they are influenced by public betting volume.
If you also wait until you are closer to game day, you get more complete information regarding player injuries and weather conditions.
Regardless of timing, line shopping remains crucial. Even minor differences in the moneyline odds for a single leg can have a compounding effect on the final payout of the parlay. It is essential to compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to ensure the best possible price is secured for every leg of the wager.
Avoiding Correlated Moneyline Legs
Correlation occurs when the outcome of one event influences the probability of another. While this is more prevalent in same-game parlays (SGPs), where a quarterback’s passing yards and a receiver’s reception total are clearly linked, subtle correlations can exist in multi-game moneyline parlays as well. For instance, parlaying two teams from the same division to win their respective games on a crucial late-season week could be considered correlated. That happens if the outcome of the first game directly impacts the playoff scenarios and motivation for the team playing in the second game.
Bankroll/Risk Management
Parlays require strictbankroll managementbecause of their high-variance nature. A widely accepted principle is to allocate only a very small percentage of your total betting funds to these wagers. You must adhere to a unit system, where one unit is 1-3% of your total bankroll for a standard straight bet.
For high-risk parlays, the stake should be even smaller, often in the range of 0.5% to 1% of the bankroll.
Examples of Moneyline Parlay Picks & Builds
Here are sample parlay builds for the NFL’s Week 5, 2025 schedule:
Favorites Parlay
This parlay combines three strong moneyline favorites to create a wager with a positive odds payout.
Betting Odds Table
Leg
Team
Opponent
Moneyline Odds
Rationale
1
Buffalo Bills
vs. Patriots
-450
The Bills are undefeated, playing at home, and can establish a commanding lead in the AFC East with a victory.
2
Indianapolis Colts
vs. Raiders
-300
The Colts are heavy home favorites against a Raiders team that has struggled.
3
Philadelphia Eagles
vs. Broncos
-215
The Eagles are solid favorites playing at home against a significant underdog.
A $50 wager on this three-team parlay at combined odds of approximately +110 would yield a profit of around $55.
Mixed Favorites + One Underdog Parlay
This example demonstrates how adding a well-reasoned underdog can significantly boost your potential return.
Betting Parlay Table
Leg
Team
Opponent
Moneyline Odds
Rationale
1
Buffalo Bills
vs. Patriots
-450
A strong anchor for the parlay.
2
Kansas City Chiefs
at Jaguars
-176
A moderate favorite with a proven track record of winning on the road.
3
New York Jets
vs. Cowboys
+118
The Jets are slight home underdogs in a game with a tight point spread (-2.5), suggesting an outright win is a plausible outcome with good value.
A $50 wager on this mixed parlay at combined odds of approximately +350 would yield a profit of around $175, more than triple the profit of the favorites-only parlay.
Long-Shot Moneyline Parlay
This “lotto ticket” style parlay combines multiple underdogs for a high-reward opportunity. Wagers on such parlays should be kept very small.
Sports Betting Table
Leg
Team
Opponent
Moneyline Odds
Rationale
1
Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. Chiefs
+148
The Jaguars are a competitive team playing at home, making an upset a possibility.
2
Cleveland Browns
vs. Vikings
+162
A divisional rivalry game where the underdog often presents value, especially with potential injury concerns for the Vikings' quarterback.
3
Cincinnati Bengals
vs. Lions
+360
A bet on a talented team to pull off a major upset against a heavily favored opponent.
A small $10 wager on this long-shot parlay at combined odds of approximately +3800 would yield a profit of around $380.
When Moneyline-Only Parlays Are (and Are Not) a Good Idea
Moneyline parlays are a specific tool and are more effective in some situations than others.
Good Situations for Moneyline-Focused Parlays
Weeks with Clear Mismatches: On a slate where several top-tier teams are facing struggling opponents at home, a moneyline parlay can be an effective way to generate a reasonable return without having to lay prohibitive odds (e.g., -400 or higher) on each game individually.
When the Point Spread is Unappealing: A moneyline is a safer alternative when a bettor is confident a team will win but is uncertain if they will cover a difficult point spread, such as the common margins of -3.5 or -7.5. Parlaying several such moneyline picks can be a prudent strategy.
Late-Season Motivational Scenarios: In the final weeks of the regular season, matchups often occur between a team fighting for a playoff berth and a team that has been mathematically eliminated. This creates a substantial motivational disparity that a moneyline parlay can capitalize on.
Situations Where You Should Avoid Them
Slates with Tight Matchups: When the majority of games on a given week are projected to be close contests with tight moneyline odds (e.g., between -120 and +110), the value of parlaying them is diminished. The increased risk does not come with a sufficiently significant increase in payout, making individual straight bets a more logical choice.
When Favorites are Over-Valued: Following a dominant performance in a nationally televised game, a team often becomes a “public” favorite, and its odds for the next match can be inflated. Including these potentially over-valued teams in a parlay is a common mistake.
When Lacking Sufficient Research: A parlay should be a collection of well-researched and confident individual picks. If you do not do adequate due diligence on every game included, the parlay becomes a gamble rather than a calculated risk.
Comparing Moneyline Parlay vs Spread / Total / Mixed Parlays
Each type of parlay offers distinct advantages and disadvantages.
Moneyline Parlay: The primary advantage is simplicity. You only need to predict the outright winner, which eliminates the frustration of losing a bet on a spread due to a last-second score that does not affect the game’s outcome. The main disadvantage is the lower payout when parlaying heavy favorites compared to spread parlays where each leg is typically priced around -110.
Spread/Total/Mixed Parlays: Combining different bet types can offer superior value if your analysis points to different strong convictions across multiple games (e.g., one team to win outright, another to cover the spread, and a third game to go over the total).
NXTbets: Level Up Your Moneyline Parlay Game
The simplicity of picking straight-up winners combined with the temptation of exponential payouts is what defines moneyline bets. However, as our analysis has shown, they are high-risk wagers that demand a disciplined and strategic approach to be successful over the long term.
You need access to reliable data and expert insights to utilize these strategies effectively. NXTbets provides the resources necessary to build smarter parlays. For a detailed analysis into the moneyline parlay mechanics,subscribe to our newsletter.
How do push or cancelled games affect moneyline parlays?
In a standard multi-game parlay, if a game is canceled or a moneyline bet results in a push (such as a tie in an NFL game), that specific leg is voided and removed from the parlay. The wager is then recalculated based on the odds of the remaining legs. For example, a four-team parlay with one push becomes a three-team parlay.
Where can I find the best moneyline odds across sportsbooks?
The most efficient method is to use an odds comparison tool. Websites and apps like OddsJam, OddsShopper, and Covers aggregate real-time odds from numerous legal sportsbooks, allowing you to easily compare prices and ensure you are getting the maximum possible value for each leg of your parlay.
Can moneyline parlays include props?
A "moneyline-only" parlay consists exclusively of bets on the straight-up winner of a game.
What is the real difference between a regular parlay and a Same Game Parlay (SGP)?
A regular parlay combines bets from completely different games. A Same Game Parlay, or SGP, lets you combine multiple bets from within a single game – like picking the winner, the total points, and a player to score a touchdown. The big difference is that the outcomes in an SGP are often correlated, which changes how the odds are calculated.
Does an NFL referee's officiating style actually affect moneyline outcomes?
You bet it does. It is an advanced angle, but a referee's tendencies can absolutely influence a game's outcome. Some refs call a ton of penalties, which can stall drives and lead to more field goals, favoring an underdog in a low-scoring game. Others let the players play, which might benefit a more physical team. Looking up a referee's stats and trends before placing a bet is a next-level strategy that many sharp bettors use.
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Moneyline Focused NFL Parlay Picks
Table of Contents
The popularity of parlay betting has been on the rise for years and is becoming an industry leader in the sports betting landscape. At the heart of this trend is the moneyline parlay, which is a straightforward yet high-stakes wager that combines multiple bets on teams to win their games outright.
Its simplicity is the reason why it appeals to many punters – you do not need to concern yourself with point spreads, only with picking winners. This structure, combined with the potential for substantial payouts from a small investment, makes moneyline bets an exciting option for many.
In this article, NXTbets will provide a comprehensive analysis of moneyline-focused NFL parlays. We will discuss the strategic approaches to building moneyline parlays and the essential tools for making informed decision-making.
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Understanding Moneyline Bets & Parlay Basics
You must comprehend how moneyline parlays are built, the mathematical principles governing their risk, and the strategic roles of favorites and underdogs.
How Moneyline Parlays Work
A moneyline parlay is a wager that links together two or more individual moneyline bets referred to as legs. For the parlay to be successful, every selected team must win its game outright. If even one leg of the parlay fails, the entire wager is lost.
The sportsbook multiplies the odds of each selection together, resulting in significantly higher potential returns compared to placing each bet separately. For example, a three-team moneyline parlay consisting of favorites can turn modest individual odds into an attractive overall payout. An example is a ticket with these three legs :
While three separate $100 wagers on these teams would yield modest individual profits, combining them into a single $100 parlay results in a +202 payout, generating a $202 profit if all three teams win.
Probability, Implied Odds & Risk
The high reward of a parlay is directly balanced by its high risk, a reality rooted in probability. Every set of betting odds carries an implied probability, which is the likelihood of an outcome occurring as suggested by the odds. For example, odds of -110 have an implied probability of 52.4%, while odds of +200 imply a 33.3% chance of winning.
When legs are combined into a parlay, the implied probability of winning the overall bet decreases with each addition. This is because the sportsbooks have a built-in advantage, known as the vig or house edge. This house edge compounds across every leg of the wager. A single bet at -110 odds already carries a house edge; a parlay multiplies this edge from each leg into the final price. This structural disadvantage is why sportsbooks report significantly higher hold percentages on parlays.
Value of Favorites vs Underdogs in Moneyline Parlays
The choice between including favorites or underdogs in a moneyline parlay defines the strategic approach. Parlaying heavy favorites is a common tactic used to generate a more appealing return from teams that have a high probability of winning but offer low individual payouts. Historically, NFL moneyline favorites win approximately 66.6% of the time, making them seem like safe additions to a parlay.
However, this strategy comes with a significant risk known as chalk overload. The more heavy favorites included in a parlay, the greater the cumulative chance that one of them will be an upset. Because the overall payout on a heavy-favorite parlay is relatively low, one unexpected loss can negate the profits from many previous wins.
On the other hand, including even one underdog acts as a powerful odds multiplier, increasing the potential payout of the parlay. The key is to find value in an underdog whose chances of winning are greater than the implied probability of their odds.
Strategy for Building Smart Moneyline Parlays
Constructing a successful moneyline parlay requires an analytical approach that goes beyond picking teams that are expected to win. The most effective strategies focus on identifying value, managing risk, and maintaining strict bankroll discipline.
Leg Selection Criteria
A careful selection of each leg forms the foundation of a strong parlay. An effective strategy is not merely about identifying the most likely winners, but also about finding instances of mispriced value.
A profitable parlay is essentially a chain of positive expected value (+EV) bets, where the bettor’s analysis indicates that a team’s actual probability of winning is higher than the implied probability of the sportsbook’s odds. This shifts the focus from “who will win?” to “which odds are incorrect?”
Each leg should be supported by thorough research on key factors such as critical player injuries, significant statistical mismatches (an elite rushing offense against a poor run defense), home-field advantage, and recent performance trends. Expert analysis from sources like BettingPros and CBS Sports can also provide valuable perspectives and highlight potential opportunities that may have been overlooked.
Optional Number of Legs
There is a broad consensus among betting experts that smaller parlays are more sustainable for long-term success. Most recommend sticking to two- or three-leg parlays. This approach offers a significant odds boost compared to a single bet but keeps the implied probability of winning within a reasonable range. While a large, eight-team parlay with +18000 odds is tempting, its implied probability of success is a mere 0.55%, making it a poor long-term investment.
When to Include Underdogs
Underdogs should be incorporated into a parlay selectively and only when there is a strong, data-backed reason to believe they are undervalued by the market. Including an underdog with positive moneyline odds (e.g., +150) can transform a modest parlay of favorites into a highly lucrative ticket. The goal is to identify underdogs with a clear path to victory that the betting public may be overlooking.
Certain historical trends can be helpful; for example, NFL home underdogs with a point spread of +3 or less have won their games outright 42.7% of the time since 2003, a rate that often provides positive value against their typical moneyline odds.
Timing & Line Shopping
The timing of a parlay bet can be critical. Placing wagers early in the week may allow a bettor to capitalize on initial lines before they are influenced by public betting volume.
If you also wait until you are closer to game day, you get more complete information regarding player injuries and weather conditions.
Regardless of timing, line shopping remains crucial. Even minor differences in the moneyline odds for a single leg can have a compounding effect on the final payout of the parlay. It is essential to compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to ensure the best possible price is secured for every leg of the wager.
Avoiding Correlated Moneyline Legs
Correlation occurs when the outcome of one event influences the probability of another. While this is more prevalent in same-game parlays (SGPs), where a quarterback’s passing yards and a receiver’s reception total are clearly linked, subtle correlations can exist in multi-game moneyline parlays as well. For instance, parlaying two teams from the same division to win their respective games on a crucial late-season week could be considered correlated. That happens if the outcome of the first game directly impacts the playoff scenarios and motivation for the team playing in the second game.
Bankroll/Risk Management
Parlays require strict bankroll management because of their high-variance nature. A widely accepted principle is to allocate only a very small percentage of your total betting funds to these wagers. You must adhere to a unit system, where one unit is 1-3% of your total bankroll for a standard straight bet.
For high-risk parlays, the stake should be even smaller, often in the range of 0.5% to 1% of the bankroll.
Examples of Moneyline Parlay Picks & Builds
Here are sample parlay builds for the NFL’s Week 5, 2025 schedule:
Favorites Parlay
This parlay combines three strong moneyline favorites to create a wager with a positive odds payout.
A $50 wager on this three-team parlay at combined odds of approximately +110 would yield a profit of around $55.
Mixed Favorites + One Underdog Parlay
This example demonstrates how adding a well-reasoned underdog can significantly boost your potential return.
Odds
Bills
City Chiefs
Jets
A $50 wager on this mixed parlay at combined odds of approximately +350 would yield a profit of around $175, more than triple the profit of the favorites-only parlay.
Long-Shot Moneyline Parlay
This “lotto ticket” style parlay combines multiple underdogs for a high-reward opportunity. Wagers on such parlays should be kept very small.
Odds
Jaguars
Browns
Bengals
A small $10 wager on this long-shot parlay at combined odds of approximately +3800 would yield a profit of around $380.
When Moneyline-Only Parlays Are (and Are Not) a Good Idea
Moneyline parlays are a specific tool and are more effective in some situations than others.
Good Situations for Moneyline-Focused Parlays
Situations Where You Should Avoid Them
Comparing Moneyline Parlay vs Spread / Total / Mixed Parlays
Each type of parlay offers distinct advantages and disadvantages.
NXTbets: Level Up Your Moneyline Parlay Game
The simplicity of picking straight-up winners combined with the temptation of exponential payouts is what defines moneyline bets. However, as our analysis has shown, they are high-risk wagers that demand a disciplined and strategic approach to be successful over the long term.
You need access to reliable data and expert insights to utilize these strategies effectively. NXTbets provides the resources necessary to build smarter parlays. For a detailed analysis into the moneyline parlay mechanics, subscribe to our newsletter.
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
In a standard multi-game parlay, if a game is canceled or a moneyline bet results in a push (such as a tie in an NFL game), that specific leg is voided and removed from the parlay. The wager is then recalculated based on the odds of the remaining legs. For example, a four-team parlay with one push becomes a three-team parlay.
The most efficient method is to use an odds comparison tool. Websites and apps like OddsJam, OddsShopper, and Covers aggregate real-time odds from numerous legal sportsbooks, allowing you to easily compare prices and ensure you are getting the maximum possible value for each leg of your parlay.
A "moneyline-only" parlay consists exclusively of bets on the straight-up winner of a game.
A regular parlay combines bets from completely different games. A Same Game Parlay, or SGP, lets you combine multiple bets from within a single game – like picking the winner, the total points, and a player to score a touchdown. The big difference is that the outcomes in an SGP are often correlated, which changes how the odds are calculated.
You bet it does. It is an advanced angle, but a referee's tendencies can absolutely influence a game's outcome. Some refs call a ton of penalties, which can stall drives and lead to more field goals, favoring an underdog in a low-scoring game. Others let the players play, which might benefit a more physical team. Looking up a referee's stats and trends before placing a bet is a next-level strategy that many sharp bettors use.
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