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NFL Betting Trends Archive: ATS, Totals & CLV by Season

NFL Betting Trends Archive: ATS, Totals & CLV by Season

If you have been struggling to understand or track NFL betting trends, feel right at home. You may find understanding terms like totals, moneyline, against the spread (ATS), and closing line value (CLV) challenging if you do not understand how they work. If you would like to track, archive, and properly apply NFL betting trends, this is the perfect blog for you. 

AT NXTbets, we are alive to the challenges of casual or first-time betting, especially in the era of the internet. To help you scale up your betting and consistently make better, informed decisions, we offer comprehensive data, detailed guides, and expert insights. Let’s show you how to monitor and archive NFL betting trends, where to source reliable data, and how to apply archived insights in your bets. 

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Where to Find Reliable NFL Trend History

For accurate entries and better outcomes, first find reliable resources before embarking on trend analysis and archiving. Fortunately, there are several reputable platforms dedicated to monitoring the NFL betting history. 

Public, Ready-to-Use Trend Pages 

Check out TeamRankings if you need a public, ready-to-use page. It offers Against the Spread (ATS) records and tables with Over/Under splits by season and team. You can filter data by year, export seasonal data, and compare home vs. away records. TeamRankings also allows you to compare NFL trends with other sports, thanks to the similar dashboards it has for major leagues like the NBA, NHL, and MLB. 

Queryable Databases 

However, if you desire more control and customizability, consider Sports Database and its Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) API. Through these two, you can track closers, openers, spreads, totals, and relevant breakdowns line-by-line. You can also query and archive every field, ranging from division games to rest days. 

Market & Public Splits 

Public betting data can be invaluable. Although such trends shed more light on line movement, they should not be used independently. Sites like Sports Betting Dime and Action Network have public bet percentages and capture relevant splits. 

What “Betting Trends” Actually Means

Betting trends are not mere stats. They are structured insights that contrast game performance to fans’/bettors’ expectations. To archive them adequately, you must get the metrics and situational angles right. 

Core Metrics You’ll Archive 

At a minimum, the following should appear in your logs:

  • Totals (Over/Under): Log whether games finished above or below the closing line. 
  • Against the Spread Records: These refer to the frequency of a team’s coverage compared to the point spread. 
  • Closing line value: Capture the difference between bet prices and the ultimate closing line. This can help you predict long-term success. 

You can also include moneyline results and line movement. 

Situational Angles Worth Tagging 

Besides logging the above metrics, you should tag certain situations for context. Therefore, consider the following: 

  • Weather: Extreme cold or windy conditions often contribute to lower NFL totals. 
  • Divisional matchups: Outcomes in divisional matchups are comparatively unique due to rivalries. 
  • Rest and travel: You will notice performance differences when teams don’t get enough rest. The same applies when they travel across time zones. 
  • Bye weeks: Include how teams perform after extra rest. 

The above tags provide context. Include them to enrich your betting trends archive. 

Building an NFL Betting-Trends Archive (Step-by-Step)

Building a personal archive for NFL betting trends from scratch may sound complicated and time-consuming. However, it is worth every effort. In the end, you will have a consistently updated database tailored to your betting style. Follow the steps below to develop your archive. 

Fields to Capture

Begin by capturing relevant fields. Each entry should indicate: 

  • Game week and date
  • Opening spread and total 
  • Teams involved 
  • Final score
  • Weather notes, if applicable 
  • Closing spread and total 
  • Public betting percentage, if available
  • Result ATS and total

Remember to include bet lines to allow you to track the Closing Line Value (CLV) easily. 

Sources & Pulls

After knowing the fields to capture:

  • Review the TeamRankings website for quick, seasonal/league data. 
  • Shift to SportsDatabase/SDQL for CSV pulls and custom queries
  • Review public bet data from Action Network

For a clean trail, archive every pull with a time stamp and raw export. 

Basic Hygiene

Be consistent:

  • Only use standardized team names
  • Key in both opening and closing lines 
  • Always mark unique/unusual circumstances, like neutral-site games. 

Avoid Overfitting 

A mistake most individuals make is chasing micro trends without knowing they have no hold. Avoid hyper-specific angles and instead prioritize broader, frequently-occurring patterns. For positive bet outcomes, you should validate the latter with multiple seasonal datasets. 

NFL Trend Families to Track (with Data Examples)

For bettors who know where to look, the NFL has hidden patterns instrumental for betting success. However, these should be treated as guiding insights, not betting guarantees. The following four trend families can help you make smarter bets if well-studied.

Closing-Line-Driven Angles 

As mentioned earlier, the final set of odds before a match kicks off can be a reliable signal for sports bettors. The closing line is shaped by how bettors behave in the period leading up to the start of the game. Always note and track teams that cover the spread, even when the line has already favored them. However, take care not to follow line movements blindly. Instead, track how winners frequently align with closing-line movements to assess whether you are on the right path. 

Divisional Dynamics by Month 

Divisional games are different from regular matches as rivalry between the participating teams often acts as fuel. As a result, they usually have unique betting results, as illustrated by these two points:

  • Underdogs tend to perform exceedingly well (beyond expectations) at the beginning of the season. 
  • As the year/season progresses and the weather becomes colder, outdoor matchup bets lean towards the under. This is because the number of scores per game reduces. 

While monthly-related divisional dynamics are proven long-term insights worth monitoring, they are not foolproof. Do not adopt them unquestioningly. 

Weather Windows 

The weather has a significant hold on NFL outcomes. Heavy winds affect passing, while extreme cold deters offensive gameplay. Games played in windy or cold conditions tend to have lower totals, while milder conditions produce higher scores. However, for thoughtful and winning decision-making, look beyond the weather forecast. Consider and take into account the weather threshold before making predictions.. For example, a slight breeze won’t affect much, but a 20mph wind is a game-changer. 

Market Psychology 

At times, the most profound signal lies in the market, not the field. Since public bettors usually rush towards favorites and overs, monitor the number of bets versus their value. If wagers are concentrated on one side but more money is spent on the other, infer potential value where the money is. You can confirm where the crowd leans by reviewing Action Network and Sports Betting Dime splits. 

Multi-Sport Comparisons: How the NFL Differs From NBA/MLB/NHL

While the NFL may dominate Sunday betting, bettors also wager on other sports. Betting patterns often differ, given the unique nature of the NFL compared to other leagues. Understand such differences to avoid false assumptions and improve your overall betting strategy. 

Pace & Volume

The NFL has 17 regular-season games per team, while the NBA and MLB have 82 and 162, respectively. In comparison, NFL data may be less stable, given that a single upset or weather-affected match can disrupt the numbers. Unlike for other leagues, betting on the NFL requires more patience and long-horizon monitoring.

Point-Scoring Ecology 

Leagues have different scoring environments. Here is a brief explanation:

  • Travel fatigue often drives scores in the NBA. 
  • Weather and stadium design can dramatically cause a swing in MLB totals. 
  • The NFL is more tactical. Its scoring flow majorly depends on coaching decisions, matchups, and weather conditions. 

To confirm the above, check MLB and NBA baselines on reputable sites like TeamRankings, and then compare NFL totals under the same conditions. 

Market Efficiency & CLV Across Sports 

The ultimate indicator of a sharp bet, regardless of sport, is beating the closing line. You are on the right track if you consistently end up with a better value than the CLV, even if your bet doesn’t sail through. This applies to other leagues too, not just the NFL. 

Take-Home Template

To give yourself an easy time:

  • Copy relevant NFL columns, such as the public splits, closing-line moves, and weather notes. 
  • Use reliable data hubs to do the same for the NHL, MLB, and NBA. 
  • Gradually build a multi-sport archive, and use it to identify consistent betting angles across various leagues. 

Case Study: One NFL Season, Three “Trend Packs”

An easier way of learning NFL betting trends is to follow a season closely and organize notes into “packs.” This strategy ensures structure, as you know how factors change week by week. Discover how to reduce a single NFL season to three trend packs below. 

Pack A: Market Moves + CLV. 

For the first pack:

  • Log every NFL match’s opening and closing lines. Do that weekly. 
  • Note how frequently teams that covered had a closing-line movement backing. 
  • Group results into quartiles like small and medium, and identify frequently hit ranges. 

This process isn’t geared towards outcome prediction, but helping you understand whether you are identifying value early or chasing the wind. 

Pack B: Divisional/Non-Divisional by Month 

As mentioned earlier, divisional matchups enjoy a different flavor from non-divisional games. You can spot these and many other seasonal rhythms by tracking totals and against-the-spread results monthly. For example, you will realize that September divisional underdogs often bite more than they can chew, while late-season outdoor division games have comparatively fewer scores. 

Pack C: Weather Windows 

Lastly, include a weather perspective. You should:

  • Identify the games played during strong winds or extreme temperatures. 
  • Compare relevant odds values to see which option between unders and overs cashed. 

By tracking and grouping such data, you will gradually understand how the weather affects NFL scoring. 

Tools & Workflows for Repeatable Archiving

For positive, long-term results, you should archive NFL betting trends season after season. If you are a casual or less tech-savvy bettor, you do not need anything fancy, just a simple stack and bookmarked dashboards. Below are some of the tools and workflows you can use to build and maintain a season-after-season NFL archive. 

Lightweight Stack 

The correct SDQL queries and a spreadsheet or Notion workspace are enough to keep an updated DIY trend archive. With these in place:

  • Run quick monthly checks 
  • Log your notes consistently
  • Add comments to remind yourself of outstanding trends. 

Ready-Made Dashboards 

To avoid building from scratch, benchmark TeamRanking’s public pages with relevant data like ATS and totals. You can use them to verify your archive entries or zoom in on team-specific patterns. 

Public Split Bookmarks 

Bookmark Action Network and Sports Betting Dime to access market psychology information easily. Their weekly public betting percentages on tickets and money spent are crucial for a solid archive.

Interpreting Trends Responsibly

Trends are highly recommended learning tools. However, be cautious. They are not magic formulas. For better outcomes, you must differentiate trends from systems, embrace responsible gameplay, and maintain an accurate archive. 

Trends vs. Systems 

It is safer to track and rely on patterns when betting on NFL games. However, at times, betting trends can be misleading. Test your betting trends by weighing them against accurate datasets beyond your sample or tracked season. Additionally, avoid picking only the flashiest stats.

Responsible Play 

Use your trends archive for educational purposes: It should help you make smarter bets, not act as a guarantee. Always protect your bankroll and bet responsibly, however solid your trend archive may be. 

Publishing Notes

You can either keep your archive private or open. If you choose to make it open:

  • Date-stamp your entries
  • Cite your data sources (use reliable sources)
  • Include updates/ corrections from platforms like Covers and TeamRankings for updates.

The strategies above will help you keep your archive accurate and trustworthy. 

Turn Your Archives into Edges with NXTbets

From the above discussion, it is clear that patterns like weather shifts, divisional differences, and market moves consistently shape the NFL betting landscape. You can benefit from this knowledge by tracking and archiving such patterns consistently and comparing them across different sports. This is one of the surest ways of moving from casual to disciplined betting. To save time and effort, bookmark the sites discussed above and regularly review them for relevant updated links and trend packs. 

At NXTbets, we don’t just help you follow the market, but ensure that you understand it. You can use our odd reviews, data, and insights to track and archive NFL betting trends. Subscribe to our newsletter for quick updates, tailored insights, and exclusive offers on NFL betting. 

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

You can use a simple Google sheet and free data hubs to build an NFL trends archive. Use SportsOddsHistory for seasonal odds, SDQL for custom queries, and TeamRankings for trend tables. 

Besides TeamRankings, you can find past relevant NFL closing lines and totals from OddsPortal and SportsOddsHistory. 

To calculate the closing line value, compare your bet price to the final line value. For example, if you bet -2.0, but odds closed at -3.0, your CLV is + 1.0. Beating the close means you are on the right track. 

Yes. Use public betting splits to understand market sentiment. For successful outcomes, focus on price movement and CLV. 

Capture weather-related factors that affect kicking, passing, and totals. These include wind speed, precipitation, and extreme temperatures. For example, winds of above 15mph have a high potential impact and must be logged. 

Exploitable NFL betting trends can be harder to find as the league has fewer games. Individuals betting on the other two (NBA and MLB) enjoy larger sample sizes and more situational angles. 

Platforms like Covers and Action Network offer quick trends, line movement, and weather updates. While they are useful for logging, you should cross-verify their data before relying on them. 

Update your archives weekly after the close of betting lines. You can also leave an open “season view” tab to help you monitor line movement and long-term patterns.

Using the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) API, you can extract NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB trends in a single workflow from the Sports Database site.

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