Imagine you are scrolling through the NFL lines for the week, and then you see it. A total that makes you do a double-take – 38.5 or 37? In today’s intense NFL, that number feels like a typo. It is not something you would expect at any point.
You know it is rare, but what do you do with it? Your first instinct is always the same: go for the Under. But then the doubt creeps in, is it a trap? Believe it or not, there have been 73 games in NFL history that ended in a 0-0 tie! While we haven’t seen one of those since 1943, the defensive slugfest is far from dead. And these sub-40 totals can be a lucrative betting venture.
In this guide, NXTbets is going to look at the history, the weather, the matchups, and highlight when these low totals are profitable for ‘Under’ bettors.
For the better part of this century, the NFL’s scoring average has been on a steady climb. From 2000 to 2020, the league-wide average for total points in a game hovered right around 44. Some years it was a little lower, some a little higher (it even peaked at a 48.1 in 2020), but that low-to-mid 40s range is the sweet spot.
This number is the gravitational center for oddsmakers. It is their starting point. When they post a total of 44.5, they are essentially saying they expect a standard, run-of-the-mill NFL game. So, when they drop a total below 40, it is a deliberate and flashing sign that they expect something to be different about this matchup.
Frequency of Total Under 40 Games
While it feels like every game is a shootout these days, plenty of contests end up being defensive struggles. We have seen games end with some weird final scores. Remember the Vikings beating the Raiders 3-0 in 2023? Or the Steelers doing the same to the Dolphins back in 2007 in a legendary “Mud Bowl”?. These games prove that a complete offensive meltdown is always on the table.
But here is the crucial distinction for us as bettors: there is a world of difference between a game that happens to finish under 40 and a game that was projected to finish under 40 from the get-go. The first one can be a coincidence. The second one is a signal from the people whose job it is to be right about these things. These officially low-set totals are rare, but they are the ones that contain the most predictive power.
Why Under-40 Totals Are Special: Key Betting Patterns
These games are rare, but what makes them bettable? It turns out, when a total gets this low, it starts to follow some reliable patterns.
Predictability of Small Margins – The 41 Magic Number
Have you ever noticed how often games seem to end with scores like 24-17 or 21-20? Both of those add up to 41. That is not a coincidence. There are certain numbers that pop up way more often than others. And for a long time, 41 has been one of the most common final scores in the NFL.
This is what makes the sub-40 threshold interesting. When a sportsbook sets a total at 38.5, they are telling you they don’t even expect the game to reach the most common scoring combinations. They are predicting a game script so tight and restrictive that it will fall short of that magic number. And historically, they have mostly been right. Data shows that in games with extremely low totals (think 38.5 or less), the Under has a significant historical edge, hitting at a rate well above the 52.4% needed to be profitable.
Defensive Strategies & Scoring Suppression
In the last decade, offenses got smarter, faster, and more pass-heavy. For a while, defenses couldn’t keep up. But now, the defense is striking back.
Coordinators across the league have shifted their philosophy. Instead of just sending blitzes all day, many are now playing with two deep safeties – you might hear announcers call it “Cover 2” or “Quarters” coverage. The goal is to take away the big deep pass. They are essentially daring offenses to slowly and methodically march down the field with a dozen short passes.
This strategy is working. It is forcing quarterbacks to throw shorter passes. As a result, the average air yards per attempt are at a decade-low, and overall passing yards per game have been dropping since 2020. When you get two teams that both run this “bend-don’t-break” style of defense, you get long and grinding drives that usually stall out. It is the perfect recipe for a low-scoring game and a key reason we are seeing more of these sub-40 totals.
Impact of Weather and Rest
Bad weather, especially wind, is a huge factor in NFL betting. Studies have shown that once wind speeds get over 15 mph, scoring can drop by an average of 7 points per game. At 20+ mph, it gets even worse. Passing becomes a nightmare, and even field goals become improbable. Oddsmakers know this, and they will slash a total if the forecast looks nasty.
Rest can also play a part, though it is a bit more subtle. A team coming off a bye week or a Thursday night game has more time to heal up and prepare a defensive game plan. While some recent data suggests this advantage has shrunk since the NFL changed its collective bargaining agreement in 2011, a well-rested, elite defense facing a banged-up offense on a short week is a classic setup for a low-scoring match.
When Totals Dip Below 40 – Common Game Conditions
These games don’t just happen randomly. They are born from a specific set of circumstances. If you learn to spot these ingredients, you can see a low-total game coming a mile away.
Bad Weather Games
Let’s talk about a Thursday Night Football game between the Steelers and Browns. The total for that game opened at a normal 40.5. But then the forecast came in. We are talking rain, snow, and winds gusting up to 35 mph. The betting market reacted swiftly, and the line plummeted all the way down to 36.5 by kickoff. Everyone knew that throwing the ball would be nearly impossible, forcing both teams into a ground-and-pound fistfight. The game actually ended up going slightly over, 24-19, which is a good reminder that nothing is a lock. But the logic behind the line drop was perfectly sound.
Teams with Strong Defensive Profiles
Some teams just build their entire identity around punching the other team in the mouth. An example is the San Francisco 49ers, who have consistently ranked near the top of the league in points and yards allowed in recent years. Or the historical versions of the Cincinnati Bengals or Indianapolis Colts that were built around dominant defenses.
When one of these defensive teams is playing, especially against a mediocre offense, the total is naturally going to be lower.
Turnover-Prone or Injury-Riddled Offenses
Nothing kills a drive and a total faster than a turnover. A fumble or an interception is an immediate stop to a scoring opportunity. In fact, teams that win the turnover battle in a game win about 70% of the time. So, when you have a matchup featuring a quarterback known for making risky throws or an offense that is just plain sloppy with the ball, you have a recipe for empty possessions.
This goes double for teams dealing with major injuries. If a starting quarterback is out and the backup is in, the playbook shrinks, the offense gets more conservative, and the total will drop like a rock. The same goes for an injury to a star left tackle or a top wide receiver. It creates a ripple effect that suppresses the entire offense’s potential.
High Stakes, Conservative Game Scripts
Think about a late-season divisional game in December. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot. The weather is getting colder. What happens? The play-calling gets tighter. Coaches become more risk-averse. They’d rather punt on 4th-and-1 from midfield than risk a turnover that could cost them the game.
This leads to a focus on the running game, controlling the clock, and playing for field position. It is a strategic decision to shorten the game, limit the number of possessions for both teams, and rely on your defense to win it for you. This is common in divisional games where the teams know each other inside and out, leading to fewer surprises and more defensive stalemates.
Betting Strategy When Total is Under 40
We know why these games happen and what they look like. Now for the fun part: how do we actually make money from them?
Value of the Under in Low-Total Scenario
The historical data shows a profitable edge in betting the Under in these low-total games. To make money betting totals long-term, you need to win more than 52.4% of your bets (to cover the sportsbook’s fee, or juice). Many of the trends in these specific low-total scenarios show ‘Under’ rates of 55% or higher, which represents a real, measurable edge. The key is that even though the sportsbooks lower the total, they sometimes don’t lower it enough to account for all the negative factors working against scoring.
Use Weather & Line Movement Wisely
If you see a game with a low total and a bad weather forecast, be patient. Wait until Saturday or Sunday morning to place your Under bet. There is a good chance the public money will have pushed that total up by a half-point or even a full point, getting you a much better number.
Cross-Reference Trends & Line Adjustments
Pay attention to how the line moves during the week. If a total opens at 45 on Monday and is down to 39.5 by Sunday, that is a signal that the professional bettors (we call them “sharps”) have been pounding the Under all week.
Sometimes, you’ll see a situation where most of the bets are on the Over, but the line is still dropping. This is called “reverse line movement,” and it is one of the strongest indicators that the sharp money is on the Under.
Leverage Props in Low-Scoring Context
If you are confident a game is going to be defensive, don’t just stop at betting the game total. Think about what causes a game to go ‘Under’ and bet on those outcomes.
It is all about correlated plays. If the wind is howling, the QB passing yards ‘Under’ is a great bet. If a team is going to abandon the pass, their star running back’s rushing attempts ‘Over’ is the best option.
Risk Management
Even with all the data on our side, these games are not guaranteed sub-40 totals. A fluke defensive touchdown or a couple of weird field goals can flip a game over the total in a heartbeat. This is whybankroll managementis crucial. Use a unit system and stick to your 1-unit bet size. This discipline keeps you in the game and protects you from the inevitable bad bets.
NXTbets: Turning Defense into Profits on Under-40 NFL Games
Totals under 40 points are predictable signals driven by a certain set of conditions – bad weather, elite defenses, turnovers, and conservative game plans. They are a throwback to a different era of football, and they offer a unique opportunity for sharp bettors.
Spotting these scenarios requires more than just a hunch; it requires the right data. At NXTbets, we provide the real-time odds, expert analysis, and key trend data you need to succeed. Don’t forget tosubscribe to our newsletter!
How often do NFL games finish under 40 total points?
Historically, about 41% of regular-season games have finished with 40 or fewer points. But remember, the number of games where the betting total is set that low is much smaller, which is what makes them such a significant signal for bettors.
Can clock-control offenses increase under betting value?
Definitely. Teams that are committed to the run and use the full play clock on every snap are intentionally shortening the game. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances to score for both teams, which is a perfect environment for an Under to hit.
What props work well in low-scoring games?
If it is going to be a low-scoring grind, bet the Under on props like QB passing yards and WR receiving yards. On the other hand, bet the Over on the lead running back's rushing attempts, as he is likely to get a heavy workload.
Do referees who call more penalties lead to more Unders?
It is a great factor to consider. A "whistle-heavy" crew that calls a lot of penalties, especially offensive holding, can stall drives and disrupt offensive rhythm, which favors the Under. However, a "let them play" crew can lead to a faster pace and more offensive flow, which might help the Over.
NFL Sunday is where every play, every yard, and every point matters. For millions of fans, there is nothing that promises a better experience than a parlay. But have you ever built a three-leg NFL parlay on FanDuel, done the quick math in your head, and thought, “Wait, that payout seems a bit off?” With …
Every NFL season brings wild betting stories; however, the NFL parlay wins tend to top them. This is possible because an NFL parlay combines many bets into one ticket, making the odds so high. With high odds, the reward for winning can be staggering. This explains why most NFL parlay wins feel almost unreal. NFL …
The UCI Cyclo-cross World Championships represent the peak of cyclo-cross (CX) bike racing. Olympic mountain bike champion and multi-discipline superstar, Tom Pidcock, has referred to it as ‘100% the hardest discipline.’ Picock attributes this reasoning to the race’s intensity, focus, and the mental drain of competing in harsh winter conditions. The short, hour-long races are …
Imagine you are trying to figure out how to watch the Professional Fighters League (PFL), and it feels a little complicated. What do you do? One minute you think it is on one channel, the next it is on a different app, and then there is talk about international leagues. It can be a headache. …
NFL Betting Trends When Total is Under 40 Points
Table of Contents
Imagine you are scrolling through the NFL lines for the week, and then you see it. A total that makes you do a double-take – 38.5 or 37? In today’s intense NFL, that number feels like a typo. It is not something you would expect at any point.
You know it is rare, but what do you do with it? Your first instinct is always the same: go for the Under. But then the doubt creeps in, is it a trap? Believe it or not, there have been 73 games in NFL history that ended in a 0-0 tie! While we haven’t seen one of those since 1943, the defensive slugfest is far from dead. And these sub-40 totals can be a lucrative betting venture.
In this guide, NXTbets is going to look at the history, the weather, the matchups, and highlight when these low totals are profitable for ‘Under’ bettors.
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Average NFL Total Points Per Game
For the better part of this century, the NFL’s scoring average has been on a steady climb. From 2000 to 2020, the league-wide average for total points in a game hovered right around 44. Some years it was a little lower, some a little higher (it even peaked at a 48.1 in 2020), but that low-to-mid 40s range is the sweet spot.
This number is the gravitational center for oddsmakers. It is their starting point. When they post a total of 44.5, they are essentially saying they expect a standard, run-of-the-mill NFL game. So, when they drop a total below 40, it is a deliberate and flashing sign that they expect something to be different about this matchup.
Frequency of Total Under 40 Games
While it feels like every game is a shootout these days, plenty of contests end up being defensive struggles. We have seen games end with some weird final scores. Remember the Vikings beating the Raiders 3-0 in 2023? Or the Steelers doing the same to the Dolphins back in 2007 in a legendary “Mud Bowl”?. These games prove that a complete offensive meltdown is always on the table.
But here is the crucial distinction for us as bettors: there is a world of difference between a game that happens to finish under 40 and a game that was projected to finish under 40 from the get-go. The first one can be a coincidence. The second one is a signal from the people whose job it is to be right about these things. These officially low-set totals are rare, but they are the ones that contain the most predictive power.
Why Under-40 Totals Are Special: Key Betting Patterns
These games are rare, but what makes them bettable? It turns out, when a total gets this low, it starts to follow some reliable patterns.
Predictability of Small Margins – The 41 Magic Number
Have you ever noticed how often games seem to end with scores like 24-17 or 21-20? Both of those add up to 41. That is not a coincidence. There are certain numbers that pop up way more often than others. And for a long time, 41 has been one of the most common final scores in the NFL.
This is what makes the sub-40 threshold interesting. When a sportsbook sets a total at 38.5, they are telling you they don’t even expect the game to reach the most common scoring combinations. They are predicting a game script so tight and restrictive that it will fall short of that magic number. And historically, they have mostly been right. Data shows that in games with extremely low totals (think 38.5 or less), the Under has a significant historical edge, hitting at a rate well above the 52.4% needed to be profitable.
Defensive Strategies & Scoring Suppression
In the last decade, offenses got smarter, faster, and more pass-heavy. For a while, defenses couldn’t keep up. But now, the defense is striking back.
Coordinators across the league have shifted their philosophy. Instead of just sending blitzes all day, many are now playing with two deep safeties – you might hear announcers call it “Cover 2” or “Quarters” coverage. The goal is to take away the big deep pass. They are essentially daring offenses to slowly and methodically march down the field with a dozen short passes.
This strategy is working. It is forcing quarterbacks to throw shorter passes. As a result, the average air yards per attempt are at a decade-low, and overall passing yards per game have been dropping since 2020. When you get two teams that both run this “bend-don’t-break” style of defense, you get long and grinding drives that usually stall out. It is the perfect recipe for a low-scoring game and a key reason we are seeing more of these sub-40 totals.
Impact of Weather and Rest
Bad weather, especially wind, is a huge factor in NFL betting. Studies have shown that once wind speeds get over 15 mph, scoring can drop by an average of 7 points per game. At 20+ mph, it gets even worse. Passing becomes a nightmare, and even field goals become improbable. Oddsmakers know this, and they will slash a total if the forecast looks nasty.
Rest can also play a part, though it is a bit more subtle. A team coming off a bye week or a Thursday night game has more time to heal up and prepare a defensive game plan. While some recent data suggests this advantage has shrunk since the NFL changed its collective bargaining agreement in 2011, a well-rested, elite defense facing a banged-up offense on a short week is a classic setup for a low-scoring match.
When Totals Dip Below 40 – Common Game Conditions
These games don’t just happen randomly. They are born from a specific set of circumstances. If you learn to spot these ingredients, you can see a low-total game coming a mile away.
Bad Weather Games
Let’s talk about a Thursday Night Football game between the Steelers and Browns. The total for that game opened at a normal 40.5. But then the forecast came in. We are talking rain, snow, and winds gusting up to 35 mph. The betting market reacted swiftly, and the line plummeted all the way down to 36.5 by kickoff. Everyone knew that throwing the ball would be nearly impossible, forcing both teams into a ground-and-pound fistfight. The game actually ended up going slightly over, 24-19, which is a good reminder that nothing is a lock. But the logic behind the line drop was perfectly sound.
Teams with Strong Defensive Profiles
Some teams just build their entire identity around punching the other team in the mouth. An example is the San Francisco 49ers, who have consistently ranked near the top of the league in points and yards allowed in recent years. Or the historical versions of the Cincinnati Bengals or Indianapolis Colts that were built around dominant defenses.
When one of these defensive teams is playing, especially against a mediocre offense, the total is naturally going to be lower.
Turnover-Prone or Injury-Riddled Offenses
Nothing kills a drive and a total faster than a turnover. A fumble or an interception is an immediate stop to a scoring opportunity. In fact, teams that win the turnover battle in a game win about 70% of the time. So, when you have a matchup featuring a quarterback known for making risky throws or an offense that is just plain sloppy with the ball, you have a recipe for empty possessions.
This goes double for teams dealing with major injuries. If a starting quarterback is out and the backup is in, the playbook shrinks, the offense gets more conservative, and the total will drop like a rock. The same goes for an injury to a star left tackle or a top wide receiver. It creates a ripple effect that suppresses the entire offense’s potential.
High Stakes, Conservative Game Scripts
Think about a late-season divisional game in December. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot. The weather is getting colder. What happens? The play-calling gets tighter. Coaches become more risk-averse. They’d rather punt on 4th-and-1 from midfield than risk a turnover that could cost them the game.
This leads to a focus on the running game, controlling the clock, and playing for field position. It is a strategic decision to shorten the game, limit the number of possessions for both teams, and rely on your defense to win it for you. This is common in divisional games where the teams know each other inside and out, leading to fewer surprises and more defensive stalemates.
Betting Strategy When Total is Under 40
We know why these games happen and what they look like. Now for the fun part: how do we actually make money from them?
Value of the Under in Low-Total Scenario
The historical data shows a profitable edge in betting the Under in these low-total games. To make money betting totals long-term, you need to win more than 52.4% of your bets (to cover the sportsbook’s fee, or juice). Many of the trends in these specific low-total scenarios show ‘Under’ rates of 55% or higher, which represents a real, measurable edge. The key is that even though the sportsbooks lower the total, they sometimes don’t lower it enough to account for all the negative factors working against scoring.
Use Weather & Line Movement Wisely
If you see a game with a low total and a bad weather forecast, be patient. Wait until Saturday or Sunday morning to place your Under bet. There is a good chance the public money will have pushed that total up by a half-point or even a full point, getting you a much better number.
Cross-Reference Trends & Line Adjustments
Pay attention to how the line moves during the week. If a total opens at 45 on Monday and is down to 39.5 by Sunday, that is a signal that the professional bettors (we call them “sharps”) have been pounding the Under all week.
Sometimes, you’ll see a situation where most of the bets are on the Over, but the line is still dropping. This is called “reverse line movement,” and it is one of the strongest indicators that the sharp money is on the Under.
Leverage Props in Low-Scoring Context
If you are confident a game is going to be defensive, don’t just stop at betting the game total. Think about what causes a game to go ‘Under’ and bet on those outcomes.
It is all about correlated plays. If the wind is howling, the QB passing yards ‘Under’ is a great bet. If a team is going to abandon the pass, their star running back’s rushing attempts ‘Over’ is the best option.
Risk Management
Even with all the data on our side, these games are not guaranteed sub-40 totals. A fluke defensive touchdown or a couple of weird field goals can flip a game over the total in a heartbeat. This is why bankroll management is crucial. Use a unit system and stick to your 1-unit bet size. This discipline keeps you in the game and protects you from the inevitable bad bets.
NXTbets: Turning Defense into Profits on Under-40 NFL Games
Totals under 40 points are predictable signals driven by a certain set of conditions – bad weather, elite defenses, turnovers, and conservative game plans. They are a throwback to a different era of football, and they offer a unique opportunity for sharp bettors.
Spotting these scenarios requires more than just a hunch; it requires the right data. At NXTbets, we provide the real-time odds, expert analysis, and key trend data you need to succeed. Don’t forget to subscribe to our newsletter!
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Historically, about 41% of regular-season games have finished with 40 or fewer points. But remember, the number of games where the betting total is set that low is much smaller, which is what makes them such a significant signal for bettors.
Definitely. Teams that are committed to the run and use the full play clock on every snap are intentionally shortening the game. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances to score for both teams, which is a perfect environment for an Under to hit.
If it is going to be a low-scoring grind, bet the Under on props like QB passing yards and WR receiving yards. On the other hand, bet the Over on the lead running back's rushing attempts, as he is likely to get a heavy workload.
It is a great factor to consider. A "whistle-heavy" crew that calls a lot of penalties, especially offensive holding, can stall drives and disrupt offensive rhythm, which favors the Under. However, a "let them play" crew can lead to a faster pace and more offensive flow, which might help the Over.
Related Posts
Why FanDuel Offers Different Odds on NFL Parlays
NFL Sunday is where every play, every yard, and every point matters. For millions of fans, there is nothing that promises a better experience than a parlay. But have you ever built a three-leg NFL parlay on FanDuel, done the quick math in your head, and thought, “Wait, that payout seems a bit off?” With …
Most Insane NFL Parlay Win Stories
Every NFL season brings wild betting stories; however, the NFL parlay wins tend to top them. This is possible because an NFL parlay combines many bets into one ticket, making the odds so high. With high odds, the reward for winning can be staggering. This explains why most NFL parlay wins feel almost unreal. NFL …
Ultimate Guide to Betting on UCI Cyclo-cross World Championships
The UCI Cyclo-cross World Championships represent the peak of cyclo-cross (CX) bike racing. Olympic mountain bike champion and multi-discipline superstar, Tom Pidcock, has referred to it as ‘100% the hardest discipline.’ Picock attributes this reasoning to the race’s intensity, focus, and the mental drain of competing in harsh winter conditions. The short, hour-long races are …
Where to Watch the Professional Fighters League (PFL)
Imagine you are trying to figure out how to watch the Professional Fighters League (PFL), and it feels a little complicated. What do you do? One minute you think it is on one channel, the next it is on a different app, and then there is talk about international leagues. It can be a headache. …