The NFL kicking points evaluate a placekicker’s actual scores in a game. They include both extra points and field goals. Typically, an extra point counts one, while a field goal counts three points. Most sportsbooks price star receivers and quarterbacks first before layering kicker markets on top. This attention gap allows some edges for bettors who analyze game context more than the market.
NXTbets offers expert insights and resources to help you maximize your chances in the NFL kicking points betting. In this guide, we provide a discussion of the primary kicking points markets and how their lines are set. We also outline the settlement quirks and house rules that are crucial to consider. Whether you are just beginning or seeking to enhance your betting experience, these aspects remain vital.
This form of betting offers extra excitement and depth to NFL betting. Instead of wagering on the outcome of the game, you delve deeper into the analysis of kicking dynamics, including factors like historical data, game situations, team strategies, and player performance.
Definitions
In this market, you bet on how many points a kicker will obtain in a game. This is basically the sum of field goals and extra points the player scores. A field goal has three points, while an extra point earns a single point each. For instance, if a kicker scores 3 field goals and 3 extra points, they will have a total of 12 points in the game.
For these props, completed kicks count while missed ones score zero. Similarly, returns, punts, and kickoffs also do not add to the scoring total.
What's Not Included
Two-point conversions do not always credit the kicker. For example, say a team executes a fake and scores by a pass or run, the kicker does not receive the credit, but the play’s scorer does. However, penalties on conversion can alter the official results. As a result, sportsbooks monitor the official stats to adjust their numbers.
Edge Cases
Overtime mostly counts when it comes to player props. But sportsbooks adopt varying rules. For example, when the named kicker is replaced before attempting the kick or becomes inactive, some sportsbooks apply must-play clauses to maintain the bet, while others void it. Therefore, ensure you confirm every site’s finality policy and revisions in the event of stat corrections before you make your bet.
Kicking Points Betting Markets
Kicking points betting markets include field goals, extra points, and totals. Each has its value filters and read, and they also vary across sportsbooks.
Field Goals Made
These are the most common NFL kicking props. You will see them presented as “FG made” in some betting sites. This bet allows you to predict how many field goals a player will score in a game. Basically, a player makes a field goal by kicking the ball through the other team’s goalposts, using a place kick, and earns three points.
Sportsbooks display totals like 1.5, 2.5, or 0.5 for field goals made. Sometimes they provide the longest FG markets or team FG totals. The lines depend on how a team stalls in the scoring range or finishes drives cleanly. They are also affected mainly by surface conditions and weather, which change coaching actions and compress long attempts.
Extra Points Made
In the NFL, once a team scores a touchdown, it gets a chance to attempt a Point After Touchdown (PAT). This extra-point attempt allows the team to get one point for kicking the ball through the uprights, or two points for a two-point conversion by passing or running the ball into the end zone.
The PAT, therefore, attaches directly to a team’s touchdown expectation and two-point decision rates. A team that mostly substitutes players in the red zone or experiments with two-point packages can reduce PAT counts. Additionally, minor changes in the red zone can also change this market quickly, so you must be very attentive.
Player Kicker Total Points
This prop is an over/under on the sum of field goals and extra points a kicker gets. Stalled drives push FGs while touchdown volumes move PATs. As a result, it is best to model PATs and field goals separately. Compare your totals to those of the market and place your bet when the difference covers the unpredictability and juice.
Team Markets That Imply Kicker Action
Markets such as team FG totals, any team 50+ yard FG, and first scoring play factor in the number of kicks a kicker might make. You can use them to project the opponent’s defensive style and field position that influenced settled drives. Through these markets, you can bet on a kicker opportunity without actually naming the kicker expressly.
Same-Game Parlays/Parlays Rules
Same-game parlays that include kicker legs mostly bear correlation limits and additional hold. Some books do not allow pairing a kicker prop with the same team total, while others restrict correlated legs. Therefore, read carefully each book’s policy to avoid such combinations.
How Books Price Kicking Props
Reputable sportsbooks use systematic inputs to build kicker lines. You can therefore obtain a competitive advantage when you analyze and understand these inputs.
Inputs Sportsbooks Consider
Most sportsbooks begin by looking at every team’s implied points from the game total and spread. They then split the scoring into touchdowns and non-touchdowns using historical field goal mixes and red-zone touchdown rates.
Moreover, the books consider opponents’ red zone defense, weather conditions, game venue, a coach’s fourth-down tendencies, and a kicker’s accuracy by distance bands. They also look at the operational factors, like snapper and holder reliability, to calculate the probability.
Simple DIY Framework
You can also model your own framework to inform your betting strategy. Begin by estimating expected team field goals and touchdowns from the pace and implied points. Convert the expected touchdowns into point after touchdown opportunities once you adjust for the team’s two-point conversion attempt rates.
Calculate fair kicker points as three times the expected field goals made and one time the expected extra points. That is, expected kicker points = 3 × E[FGM] + 1 × E[PATM]. Make an allowance for backup kicker accuracy, coach style margin, and the probability of overtime. Minus the sportsbook’s juice to translate the fair price into an expected edge. Finally, monitor the closing lines to evaluate your framework’s edge consistently.
Key Data and Handicapping Factors
When you choose to explore the NFL kicking points props, you must prepare to read game context better than the market. That includes an analysis of various factors, including:
Team Scoring Profile
Look at the team’s implied total and convert it to expected drives and points per drive. Use the red-zone touchdown percentage to split the point after touchdown from field goals chances. Higher drive success and faster pace raise attempts. Additionally, the opponent’s defensive style can push finishers toward TDs or FGs and alter the kicker’s opportunity.
Coaching Tendencies
The coaching philosophy on two-point and fourth down decisions drives kicker volume. Track every coach’s fourth-down rate by distance and how they usually elect three from the 35 to 40 yard zone. For instance, an aggressive personnel increases touchdown unpredictability and cuts FG volume. Utilize situational splits such as early downs, short yardage, and late game to tune your projection.
Weather and Venue
Wind is known to reduce long attempts. Snow and rain also affect the plant and timing, lowering the mid-to-long distance accuracy. Altitude increases, stretches, and carries an effective range while closed roofs and domes stabilize results. Track late forecast updates and roof status alerts as they often move lines.
Offensive Line/WR injuries
Injuries that remove crucial red-zone targets or weaken the pass protection increase the chance of field goals and stalled drives. On the other hand, an efficient and healthy red-zone offense will likely lower field goal volume and convert TDs. Pay more attention to injury notes for primary receivers, centre, left tackle, and quarterback health when developing your strategy.
Kicker Form and Distance Splits
Group accuracy into 0–39, 40–49, and 50+ yard bands. Combine recent form with career samples. Do not overreact to one week; blend long and short samples. Respect the proven 50-plus leg strength; however, weigh long samples lightly to minimize noise.
Moreover, check operation errors, holder/snapper continuity, and touchback rates when building a kicker’s probabilistic make curve.
Market-by-Market Tactics
Every market requires a unique red focused on conditions and attempts. Use clear triggers to locate mispriced lines.
Kicker Points
To find a fair number, model extra points and field goals separately, then add them. Go for unders when the forecasted weather will likely affect kicks, or a team shows a high likelihood of a high two-point rate. Conversely, favor overs when the implied total is solid but the red-zone touchdown conversion is poor or average. Do not forget to include the opponent’s red-zone strength.
Field Goals Made
Look for defenses that force long drives and the coaches with a habit of taking three from the 35 to 40 range. Back overs in field-position matchups where defenses bend without breaking, and followed by settling kicks. However, avoid them when public money or the weather cuts realistic attempt rates. Factor in benching patterns and fourth-quarter tendencies.
PATs Made
Link PAT totals tightly to two-point frequency and touchdown projection. Teams missing red-zone personnel or experimenting with two-point packages will likely experience reduced PAT counts. Small lines shift with little action; therefore, utilize low stakes unless you have a confident edge. Watch out for red-zone substitutions and two-point experimentation.
Longest Field Goal made
This prop requires an expected attempt, clear leg power, and the willingness of a coach. Back games that stall in neutral field position and kickers with a proven 50-plus track record. Tailwinds and altitude favor overs, while poor turf and crosswinds favor under. Confirm 50-yard attempt history and timing before committing your bet.
First Scoring Play Field Goal
This market is suitable for slow, defense-first games that open stalled drives. Consider it when teams exhibit conservative play calling or when both teams’ defenses force early stops. However, remember that this market carries high hold and requires limited stakes and price shopping. Cross-check punts and opening plays for consistency.
House Rules You Must Know Before Betting
A good strategy, ignorant of the settlement rules, is prone to leaks. House policies change betting results more than you expect.
Overtime Counts
Sportsbooks have different rules on overtime. Many include them when settling player props, while some do not. Confirm every site’s overtime police on the page where you place your wager. If you do not see it there, check the help section or the bet slip.
Action vs. Must-play
Books also differ on how they deal with a name player being inactive or replaced. Some strictly void the bet while others allow the substitute to keep the bet. Check the named-player or must-play language to avoid late scratch surprises. Also, check how sportsbooks deal with backups who act as punters.
Stat Correction and Pushes
Official stat corrections can change a made kick to a miss after the game. Sportsbooks publish whether they honor next-day corrections and how whole-number pushes resolve. Track live box scores and screenshots of inactives should you need to dispute a settlement.
Bankroll, Line Shopping, and Timing the Market
These too are crucial components of betting strategy that you must consider to increase your chances of success in the NFL kicking points betting. They can help you achieve long-term and sustained excitement and success.
Staking
Use a no-bet band and small, consistent unit sizing for thin edges. Do not bet more than two percent of your bankroll on a single kicker leg. Limit correlated exposure inside the same-game parlays and cap total position size relative to your entire bankroll.
Line shopping
Sportsbooks offer different kicker props with varying conditions. It is best to compare at least three or four books before you make a bet. Respected books and reduced juice often offer lower hold and better prices. Watch closing moves and record your actions to identify where value appears.
Timing
Coaching action, inactives, and the weather contribute to late line movements. Place your bet early when the available information provides a truly verified edge. Otherwise, wait for the ninety-minute window and final scratches when most sportsbooks lock odds and rosters.
Common Mistakes to Avoid in NFL Kicking Points Betting
As you prepare to get into the NFL kicking points betting market:
Do not back a kicker solely based on their reputation. Instead, use the likely game script, coach tendencies, and the offense to price his projected attempts before you risk your money.
Do not ignore two-point rates and wind forecasts. Two-point tendencies reduce extra points volume while wind affects long attempts, forcing coaches to avoid risky tries.
Do not overreact to a single week. These tend to produce noisy samples for kickers, yet outliers respond quickly. Regress extreme figures toward the mean and use rolling multi-week data to avoid chasing luck.
Avoid same-game parlays that link incompatible legs. Many books often void them. Limit pairs that work against themselves and red correlation rules to be safe.
As you steer clear of these mistakes, maintain discipline and bet responsibly for a more fulfilling experience.
Nailing NFL Kicking Points Betting with NXTbets
The NFL kicking points betting offers additional value and can be profitable if you build a strong model. The key tip is to use data inputs and line-reading math to create a fair price. Verify every book’s settlement language and house rules, shop prices, and time your bets around weather and injury clarity to maximize on these markets.
NXTbets continues to provide weekly edges, market explainers, expert analysis, and resources and tools to help you bet responsibly and make smarter bets. Subscribe to our newsletter for more updates and information on how to increase your chances of success straight to your inbox!
What Are The Biggest Differences Between Betting Kicker Props And Betting Player Props For Skill Positions?
Kicker props significantly rely on coaching style, weather, and scoring context, while skill positions focus on individual matchups, usage, and target share.
Can Kicker Props Be Used As A Hedge Against Team Or Total Bets?
In some instances, you can use kicker props to hedge against team or total bets. For example, if you like an under on a team’s total but anticipate stalled drives, you can use a kicker as a partial hedge. Just ensure the correlation is logical and aligned with your main bet.
Do Sportsbooks Adjust Kicker Lines Live During Games?
Some books do. You will likely see live kicker props when injuries, weather, or game pace change expected attempts. They mostly carry lower limits and higher juice, so you must approach them cautiously.
How Do You Track Long-Term Profitability On Kicker Props?
Maintain a record of every bet you make with the stake, line, and outcome
Compare your bets against the closing line to determine if you consistently beat market moves.
Please refer to Affiliated Operators’ T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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The Complete Guide to NFL Kicking Points Betting
Table of Contents
The NFL kicking points evaluate a placekicker’s actual scores in a game. They include both extra points and field goals. Typically, an extra point counts one, while a field goal counts three points. Most sportsbooks price star receivers and quarterbacks first before layering kicker markets on top. This attention gap allows some edges for bettors who analyze game context more than the market.
NXTbets offers expert insights and resources to help you maximize your chances in the NFL kicking points betting. In this guide, we provide a discussion of the primary kicking points markets and how their lines are set. We also outline the settlement quirks and house rules that are crucial to consider. Whether you are just beginning or seeking to enhance your betting experience, these aspects remain vital.
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How Kicking Points Work in the NFL
This form of betting offers extra excitement and depth to NFL betting. Instead of wagering on the outcome of the game, you delve deeper into the analysis of kicking dynamics, including factors like historical data, game situations, team strategies, and player performance.
Definitions
In this market, you bet on how many points a kicker will obtain in a game. This is basically the sum of field goals and extra points the player scores. A field goal has three points, while an extra point earns a single point each. For instance, if a kicker scores 3 field goals and 3 extra points, they will have a total of 12 points in the game.
For these props, completed kicks count while missed ones score zero. Similarly, returns, punts, and kickoffs also do not add to the scoring total.
What's Not Included
Two-point conversions do not always credit the kicker. For example, say a team executes a fake and scores by a pass or run, the kicker does not receive the credit, but the play’s scorer does. However, penalties on conversion can alter the official results. As a result, sportsbooks monitor the official stats to adjust their numbers.
Edge Cases
Overtime mostly counts when it comes to player props. But sportsbooks adopt varying rules. For example, when the named kicker is replaced before attempting the kick or becomes inactive, some sportsbooks apply must-play clauses to maintain the bet, while others void it. Therefore, ensure you confirm every site’s finality policy and revisions in the event of stat corrections before you make your bet.
Kicking Points Betting Markets
Kicking points betting markets include field goals, extra points, and totals. Each has its value filters and read, and they also vary across sportsbooks.
Field Goals Made
These are the most common NFL kicking props. You will see them presented as “FG made” in some betting sites. This bet allows you to predict how many field goals a player will score in a game. Basically, a player makes a field goal by kicking the ball through the other team’s goalposts, using a place kick, and earns three points.
Sportsbooks display totals like 1.5, 2.5, or 0.5 for field goals made. Sometimes they provide the longest FG markets or team FG totals. The lines depend on how a team stalls in the scoring range or finishes drives cleanly. They are also affected mainly by surface conditions and weather, which change coaching actions and compress long attempts.
Extra Points Made
In the NFL, once a team scores a touchdown, it gets a chance to attempt a Point After Touchdown (PAT). This extra-point attempt allows the team to get one point for kicking the ball through the uprights, or two points for a two-point conversion by passing or running the ball into the end zone.
The PAT, therefore, attaches directly to a team’s touchdown expectation and two-point decision rates. A team that mostly substitutes players in the red zone or experiments with two-point packages can reduce PAT counts. Additionally, minor changes in the red zone can also change this market quickly, so you must be very attentive.
Player Kicker Total Points
This prop is an over/under on the sum of field goals and extra points a kicker gets. Stalled drives push FGs while touchdown volumes move PATs. As a result, it is best to model PATs and field goals separately. Compare your totals to those of the market and place your bet when the difference covers the unpredictability and juice.
Team Markets That Imply Kicker Action
Markets such as team FG totals, any team 50+ yard FG, and first scoring play factor in the number of kicks a kicker might make. You can use them to project the opponent’s defensive style and field position that influenced settled drives. Through these markets, you can bet on a kicker opportunity without actually naming the kicker expressly.
Same-Game Parlays/Parlays Rules
Same-game parlays that include kicker legs mostly bear correlation limits and additional hold. Some books do not allow pairing a kicker prop with the same team total, while others restrict correlated legs. Therefore, read carefully each book’s policy to avoid such combinations.
How Books Price Kicking Props
Reputable sportsbooks use systematic inputs to build kicker lines. You can therefore obtain a competitive advantage when you analyze and understand these inputs.
Inputs Sportsbooks Consider
Most sportsbooks begin by looking at every team’s implied points from the game total and spread. They then split the scoring into touchdowns and non-touchdowns using historical field goal mixes and red-zone touchdown rates.
Moreover, the books consider opponents’ red zone defense, weather conditions, game venue, a coach’s fourth-down tendencies, and a kicker’s accuracy by distance bands. They also look at the operational factors, like snapper and holder reliability, to calculate the probability.
Simple DIY Framework
You can also model your own framework to inform your betting strategy. Begin by estimating expected team field goals and touchdowns from the pace and implied points. Convert the expected touchdowns into point after touchdown opportunities once you adjust for the team’s two-point conversion attempt rates.
Calculate fair kicker points as three times the expected field goals made and one time the expected extra points. That is, expected kicker points = 3 × E[FGM] + 1 × E[PATM]. Make an allowance for backup kicker accuracy, coach style margin, and the probability of overtime. Minus the sportsbook’s juice to translate the fair price into an expected edge. Finally, monitor the closing lines to evaluate your framework’s edge consistently.
Key Data and Handicapping Factors
When you choose to explore the NFL kicking points props, you must prepare to read game context better than the market. That includes an analysis of various factors, including:
Team Scoring Profile
Look at the team’s implied total and convert it to expected drives and points per drive. Use the red-zone touchdown percentage to split the point after touchdown from field goals chances. Higher drive success and faster pace raise attempts. Additionally, the opponent’s defensive style can push finishers toward TDs or FGs and alter the kicker’s opportunity.
Coaching Tendencies
The coaching philosophy on two-point and fourth down decisions drives kicker volume. Track every coach’s fourth-down rate by distance and how they usually elect three from the 35 to 40 yard zone. For instance, an aggressive personnel increases touchdown unpredictability and cuts FG volume. Utilize situational splits such as early downs, short yardage, and late game to tune your projection.
Weather and Venue
Wind is known to reduce long attempts. Snow and rain also affect the plant and timing, lowering the mid-to-long distance accuracy. Altitude increases, stretches, and carries an effective range while closed roofs and domes stabilize results. Track late forecast updates and roof status alerts as they often move lines.
Offensive Line/WR injuries
Injuries that remove crucial red-zone targets or weaken the pass protection increase the chance of field goals and stalled drives. On the other hand, an efficient and healthy red-zone offense will likely lower field goal volume and convert TDs. Pay more attention to injury notes for primary receivers, centre, left tackle, and quarterback health when developing your strategy.
Kicker Form and Distance Splits
Group accuracy into 0–39, 40–49, and 50+ yard bands. Combine recent form with career samples. Do not overreact to one week; blend long and short samples. Respect the proven 50-plus leg strength; however, weigh long samples lightly to minimize noise.
Moreover, check operation errors, holder/snapper continuity, and touchback rates when building a kicker’s probabilistic make curve.
Market-by-Market Tactics
Every market requires a unique red focused on conditions and attempts. Use clear triggers to locate mispriced lines.
Kicker Points
To find a fair number, model extra points and field goals separately, then add them. Go for unders when the forecasted weather will likely affect kicks, or a team shows a high likelihood of a high two-point rate. Conversely, favor overs when the implied total is solid but the red-zone touchdown conversion is poor or average. Do not forget to include the opponent’s red-zone strength.
Field Goals Made
Look for defenses that force long drives and the coaches with a habit of taking three from the 35 to 40 range. Back overs in field-position matchups where defenses bend without breaking, and followed by settling kicks. However, avoid them when public money or the weather cuts realistic attempt rates. Factor in benching patterns and fourth-quarter tendencies.
PATs Made
Link PAT totals tightly to two-point frequency and touchdown projection. Teams missing red-zone personnel or experimenting with two-point packages will likely experience reduced PAT counts. Small lines shift with little action; therefore, utilize low stakes unless you have a confident edge. Watch out for red-zone substitutions and two-point experimentation.
Longest Field Goal made
This prop requires an expected attempt, clear leg power, and the willingness of a coach. Back games that stall in neutral field position and kickers with a proven 50-plus track record. Tailwinds and altitude favor overs, while poor turf and crosswinds favor under. Confirm 50-yard attempt history and timing before committing your bet.
First Scoring Play Field Goal
This market is suitable for slow, defense-first games that open stalled drives. Consider it when teams exhibit conservative play calling or when both teams’ defenses force early stops. However, remember that this market carries high hold and requires limited stakes and price shopping. Cross-check punts and opening plays for consistency.
House Rules You Must Know Before Betting
A good strategy, ignorant of the settlement rules, is prone to leaks. House policies change betting results more than you expect.
Overtime Counts
Sportsbooks have different rules on overtime. Many include them when settling player props, while some do not. Confirm every site’s overtime police on the page where you place your wager. If you do not see it there, check the help section or the bet slip.
Action vs. Must-play
Books also differ on how they deal with a name player being inactive or replaced. Some strictly void the bet while others allow the substitute to keep the bet. Check the named-player or must-play language to avoid late scratch surprises. Also, check how sportsbooks deal with backups who act as punters.
Stat Correction and Pushes
Official stat corrections can change a made kick to a miss after the game. Sportsbooks publish whether they honor next-day corrections and how whole-number pushes resolve. Track live box scores and screenshots of inactives should you need to dispute a settlement.
Bankroll, Line Shopping, and Timing the Market
These too are crucial components of betting strategy that you must consider to increase your chances of success in the NFL kicking points betting. They can help you achieve long-term and sustained excitement and success.
Staking
Use a no-bet band and small, consistent unit sizing for thin edges. Do not bet more than two percent of your bankroll on a single kicker leg. Limit correlated exposure inside the same-game parlays and cap total position size relative to your entire bankroll.
Line shopping
Sportsbooks offer different kicker props with varying conditions. It is best to compare at least three or four books before you make a bet. Respected books and reduced juice often offer lower hold and better prices. Watch closing moves and record your actions to identify where value appears.
Timing
Coaching action, inactives, and the weather contribute to late line movements. Place your bet early when the available information provides a truly verified edge. Otherwise, wait for the ninety-minute window and final scratches when most sportsbooks lock odds and rosters.
Common Mistakes to Avoid in NFL Kicking Points Betting
As you prepare to get into the NFL kicking points betting market:
As you steer clear of these mistakes, maintain discipline and bet responsibly for a more fulfilling experience.
Nailing NFL Kicking Points Betting with NXTbets
The NFL kicking points betting offers additional value and can be profitable if you build a strong model. The key tip is to use data inputs and line-reading math to create a fair price. Verify every book’s settlement language and house rules, shop prices, and time your bets around weather and injury clarity to maximize on these markets.
NXTbets continues to provide weekly edges, market explainers, expert analysis, and resources and tools to help you bet responsibly and make smarter bets. Subscribe to our newsletter for more updates and information on how to increase your chances of success straight to your inbox!
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Kicker props significantly rely on coaching style, weather, and scoring context, while skill positions focus on individual matchups, usage, and target share.
In some instances, you can use kicker props to hedge against team or total bets. For example, if you like an under on a team’s total but anticipate stalled drives, you can use a kicker as a partial hedge. Just ensure the correlation is logical and aligned with your main bet.
Some books do. You will likely see live kicker props when injuries, weather, or game pace change expected attempts. They mostly carry lower limits and higher juice, so you must approach them cautiously.
Please refer to Affiliated Operators’ T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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