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NFL Score Predictions, Picks, and Parlays

NFL Score Predictions, Picks, and Parlays

The trick with score predictions lies in projecting the exact final score. Instead of trying to figure out who is going to win, you project the teams’ scores, such as Packers 27 and Cowboys 20. This prediction unlocks insights into every major bet type you could make: the spread, the total, and even player props. 

That 27-20 score doesn’t just give you a winner; it gives you a 7-point margin for the spread and a total of 47 points for the over/under. When you combine these individual picks, you’ll be able to build a parlay with a purpose.

In this guide, NXTbets highlights how these predictions are made, how to turn them into viable single-game picks, and the correct way to build parlays. We will even go through some examples, cover the risks, and point you to the best tools for the job.

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How Score Predictions are Made

Have you ever wondered where those predicted scores actually come from? They come from high-powered computing and human intelligence. Here is an in-depth explanation:

Data & Statistical Models

Imagine a supercomputer that can play an NFL game 10,000 times before it even kicks off. That is essentially what a statistical model does. Sites like Pickswise and SportsLine run these massive simulations to find the most common outcomes and generate an average final score.

But what ingredients go into this simulation? It is not just a team’s win-loss record. These models feast on a range of advanced data points:

  • Offensive & Defensive Efficiency: They look at stats that go way beyond total yards. Metrics like DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) grade a team on every single play. The simulations are adjusted for the situation and the quality of the opponent.
  • Recent Performance: Is the team on a hot streak or in a slump? The models weigh recent games more heavily.
  • Key Injuries: The absence of a star quarterback or a lockdown cornerback can change a team’s potential, and the models adjust their projections accordingly.
  • Situational Factors: Things like home-field advantage, how a team performs on grass vs. turf, and even the forecasted weather for game day are all considered.

Expert Handicappers vs Machine Predictions

So, if the computers are so smart, do we even need humans? Believe it or not, the score predictions can’t be accurate without human input.

Machine predictions are incredible because they are completely unbiased. An algorithm doesn’t care about rivalries, media narratives, or your favorite team. It just crunches the numbers, processing thousands of data points without any emotional attachment. Some models, like those at Dimers, even use a process called reinforcement learning. It is a process where the AI is rewarded for making profitable picks, so it is constantly teaching itself to get better.

But human experts bring something a computer can’t: context. They can read between the lines. They watch the game tape and see how a team is winning or losing. They can factor in things like locker-room chemistry, a coach’s conservative play-calling in big moments, or the psychological boost a team gets when a beloved veteran returns from injury.

Predicting Different Bet Types with Predicted Scores

Here is where it all comes together. A score prediction, like Packers 27 – Cowboys 20, is the key to three major bet types:

  1. The Spread: The prediction gives us a 7-point margin of victory. If the sportsbook has the spread at Packers -5.5, our prediction suggests the Packers will cover. If the spread is Packers -8.5, it indicates the Cowboys are the better bet.
  2. The Total (Over/Under): The combined score in our prediction is 47 points (27+20). If the sportsbook’s total is set at 44.5, our prediction points to the Over. If it is 49.5, we’d lean towards Under.
  3. Prop Bets: A projection of 27 points for the Packers could support a bet on their team total going Over 24.5 points, or for their quarterback to throw for Over 1.5 touchdowns.

Just remember, these models aren’t perfect. The average error can be around 10 points, so a predicted 7-point win could easily end up being a 3-point win or a 12-point blowout. 

Turning Predictions into Picks

This is the most critical step: turning that raw data into a valuable bet. It is not about just betting on what the prediction says; it is about finding where the sportsbooks might have gotten it wrong.

Single Game Picks Based on Predicted Score

A pick has value when your data-driven prediction differs significantly from the betting line offered by the sportsbook. Let’s use that Packers 27 – Cowboys 20 prediction again. That is a 7-point win for Green Bay and a total of 47 points.

  • Scenario 1 (Spread): The sportsbook line is Packers -4.5.
    • Your Analysis: Your prediction says they’ll win by 7. The line only asks them to win by 5. That 2.5-point difference is your value. This is a strong signal to bet on the Packers to cover the spread.
  • Scenario 2 (Total): The sportsbook line is Over/Under 49.5.
    • Your Analysis: Your prediction is a combined 47 points. The line is 2.5 points higher. The value here is on the Under.
  • Scenario 3 (Moneyline): The Packers are the favorite, so their moneyline odds might be something like -220 (meaning you have to bet $220 to win $100). If you are confident in the outright win, you can take it, but the real value is often found in the spread.

Comparing Predicted Score vs Consensus / Public Betting

Sometimes, the best bet is the one nobody else is making. The general public loves to bet on popular teams, star players, and favorites. This flood of public money can actually move the betting line. For example, if everyone and their mother is betting on the Chiefs, the sportsbooks might move the spread from -7 to -8 to encourage more bets on the other side.

If your data-driven prediction suggested the Chiefs would only win by 6, that line movement just created a tremendous value opportunity to bet on the underdog. This is called “fading the public,” and it is a classic sharp betting strategy. You can use tools that track public betting percentages to spot these situations where your model disagrees with the crowd.

When Not to Use Predictions for Picks

A good model knows its own limits. Be extra cautious about relying solely on score predictions in a few specific situations:

  • Major Injury Drama: If a star quarterback is a game-time decision, the models are basically guessing. His team is entirely different with him than without him, creating too much uncertainty.
  • Wild Weather: A forecast for 40 mph winds or a sudden snowstorm can turn any game into a low-scoring contest.
  • The First Few Weeks: In Weeks 1-3, models are still using a lot of data from last season. They haven’t fully adjusted to new coaches, significant roster changes, or breakout rookies.
  • Truly Chaotic Teams: Some teams might play lights out one week and look entirely lost the next. This kind of volatility is tough for any model to pin down.

Building Parlays with Picks Based on Score Predictions

Everyone loves the idea of turning a small bet into a huge payout. But most people build parlays based on hope. We are going to build them based on strategy.

Combining Picks Wisely

A parlay is only as strong as its weakest leg. You are not just throwing a bunch of favorites together and crossing your fingers. You are looking for multiple, individual bets that each have positive expected value (+EV). This means each pick, on its own, is a smart wager based on your score predictions and value analysis.

A good habit is to diversify your bet types. Instead of parlaying three heavy favorites on the moneyline (which offers a surprisingly low payout), try mixing it up. Combine a spread from one game, a total from another, and maybe a player prop from a third game. This spreads your risk across different types of outcomes.

Same-Game Parlays vs Multi-Game Parlays

You’ve seen the ads for Same-Game Parlays (SGPs). They are fun, but it is crucial to understand how they differ from a traditional multi-game parlay.

Using Predicted Scores to Craft Parlays

Let’s make this real. Imagine your predictions give you two substantial value plays for the week:

  1. Prediction 1: Chargers beat the Giants 27-17. The spread is Chargers -6.5. Your predicted 10-point margin easily covers this. Pick: Chargers -6.5.
  2. Prediction 2: Packers beat the Cowboys 27-20. The spread is Packers -6.5. Your predicted 7-point margin gives you a slight cushion. Pick: Packers -6.5.

You can combine these two well-researched picks into a two-leg parlay.

Payout Expectations & Risk

Here is why parlays are so tempting. The payouts multiply.

  • A single $10 bet at standard -110 odds wins you about $9.
  • A 2-leg parlay of two -110 bets pays around +260. That same $10 bet now wins you $26.
  • A 3-leg parlay pays around +600. Your $10 bet wins $60.

But the risk multiplies just as fast. The probability of winning drops with every leg you add.

Sample Predictions + Picks & Parlays for This Week

Theory is grand, but let’s put some money into the theory. Here is how you could apply this entire process to a real NFL week, using the matchups and lines for Week 4 of the 2025 season.

Criteria Used for These Predictions

For these examples, we are using a hybrid approach that blends the powerful simulations from data models (like the ones that run a game 10,000 times) with the sharp analysis of human experts who know the league inside and out. We have also factored in scenarios like key injuries and crucial matchups.

Score Predictions for Selected Matchups

Here are three games from the Week 4 slate that present some interesting opportunities:

  • Matchup 1: Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
    • Predicted Score: Packers 27 – Cowboys 17.
    • The Rationale: This is a fade of the Cowboys’ struggling defense, which has been giving up points in bunches. The Packers’ offense, led by Jordan Love, is poised to take advantage. Plus, Packers coach Matt LaFleur has a fantastic track record in primetime games against the spread. The line is hovering around Packers -6.5.
  • Matchup 2: Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
    • Predicted Score: Ravens 27 – Chiefs 24.
    • The Rationale: This is a heavyweight bout. While Patrick Mahomes usually has the edge, our models see this as a true toss-up, decided by a field goal. The betting line has the Ravens as a slight -2.5 point favorite. The predicted combined score is 51, which is higher than the sportsbook total.
  • Matchup 3: Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
    • Predicted Score: Chargers 27 – Giants 17.
    • The Rationale: This is a classic mismatch on paper. The Chargers are undefeated with a high-flying offense, while the Giants are winless and starting a rookie QB. The data strongly suggests the Chargers are the superior team, even on the road. The spread is Chargers -6.5.

Corresponding Single Picks

Based on those predictions, here are the single bets that offer the most value:

  • Packers Pick: Packers -6.5. Our predicted 10-point margin of victory gives us a nice 3.5-point cushion over the spread.
  • Ravens/Chiefs Pick: Over 48.5 Total Points. The predicted total of 51 points is comfortably over the line. This looks like a game where both offenses will score.
  • Chargers Pick: Chargers -6.5. Like the Packers pick, the predicted 10-point win margin provides a solid buffer to cover the spread.

Parlay Build Example Based on These Picks

Now, let’s combine these into a couple of strategic parlays.

  • The “Confident Contenders” 2-Leg Parlay:
    • Leg 1: Chargers -6.5 (at -110 odds)
    • Leg 2: Packers -6.5 (at -110 odds)
    • Potential Payout: A $10 bet would win approximately $26.45 (Total Payout: $36.45).
  • The “All-Angles” 3-Leg Parlay (Higher Risk):
    • Leg 1: Chargers -6.5 (at -110 odds)
    • Leg 2: Packers -6.5 (at -110 odds)
    • Leg 3: Ravens vs. Chiefs OVER 48.5 (at -110 odds)
    • Potential Payout: A $10 bet would win approximately $59.57 (Total Payout: $69.57).

What If Things Go Wrong: Pushes / Upsets

This is football, and things will go wrong.

  • If a Pick Pushes: Let’s say the Packers win 27-20, and the spread was exactly -7. That leg is a push. In our 3-leg parlay, that bet would simply be removed. The parlay would automatically become a 2-leg parlay with the Chargers and the Over, and the payout would be recalculated to the lower +260 odds. You don’t lose, but your potential win gets smaller.
  • If a Pick Loses: If the Chargers only win by 3 points, they fail to cover the -6.5 spread. The entire parlay, whether it is the 2-leg or 3-leg version, is a loss. That is the all-or-nothing risk of a parlay.

Rules, Risk & Common Mistakes

Look, anyone can get lucky on a given Sunday. But if you want to be successful over the long haul, you have to be disciplined. That means understanding the rules, respecting the risk, and avoiding the simple mistakes that sink most bettors.

Understanding Push/Tie/Voided Legs

In a standard multi-game parlay, if one of your legs pushes (ties the spread or total), that leg is removed from the bet, and your parlay is graded with one fewer team at reduced odds. A three-teamer becomes a two-teamer.

But be careful with Same-Game Parlays. Some sportsbooks have a rule in their fine print: if any leg of an SGP pushes, the entire parlay is voided. You get your money back, but that winning ticket you thought you had suddenly vanishes. Always check your book’s house rules.

Overconfidence in Predicted Margins

A model predicting a 7-point win feels like a lock when the spread is -6.5. But that half-point – often called the “hook” – can ruin everything. Football is a game of key numbers (3, 7, 10). A predicted 7-point win can easily end up as a 6-point win in reality. That tiny margin is the difference between cashing a ticket and tearing it up. Respect the variance.

Ignoring Variability & Outliers

Models can’t predict a muffed punt that leads to a touchdown, a referee making a questionable call, or a backup quarterback coming in and playing the game of his life. Predictions are based on what is most likely to happen over thousands of simulations. But in a game, the unlikely happens all the time. Use predictions as a guide, not a guarantee.

Too Many Legs in Parlay / Correlation

It is incredibly tempting to build a 10-leg parlay that could pay out thousands. Don’t do it. The odds of winning are tremendously low. For a sustainable strategy, stick to 2- or 3-leg parlays where every leg is a value pick. And remember the correlation trap with SGPs – just because the story makes sense doesn’t mean the payout is fair.

Bankroll / Emotional Management

You need a plan for your money. It is called bankroll management. Start by setting aside an amount of money you are truly comfortable losing. Then, adopt the unit system. A unit should be 1% to 3% of your total bankroll. If your bankroll is $500, one unit is $5-$15.

Every single bet you place should be for one unit. This prevents you from betting too much when you are feeling overconfident and, more importantly, it stops you from chasing your losses. Sticking to a unit plan ensures you can survive the inevitable losing streaks and stay in the game long enough for your smart strategy to pay off.

Tools & Resources for Score Predictions, Picks & Parlays

You don’t have to do all this work on your own. There are tons of great resources out there that can provide you with the data and analysis you need to make sharper bets. Here are a few of our favorites:

Prediction/Simulation Models

  • Pickswise: An excellent source for free computer picks and score projections that are based on statistical simulations. They do a lot of the heavy data lifting for you.
  • Dimers: These guys are known for their powerful AI that runs thousands of simulations per game. Their models are built to identify profitable edges in the market.

Expert Preview & Picks Sites

  • PicksAndParlays.net: This is a hub for free picks and detailed matchup breakdowns from a wide range of expert handicappers. You can see who’s hot and follow their analysis.
  • OddsChecker: Not only do they offer expert picks and parlays, but their site is a must-use for comparing odds across different sportsbooks. Getting the best line is just as important as picking the right side.

Trend / Spread / Line Movement Tools

  • Covers League Trends: Do you want to know how a team performs as a road underdog after a bye week? Covers has historical data that lets you track these kinds of specific trends.
  • BetIQ Custom Trends Tool: This is for the real data nerds. You can build and test your own betting theories against years of historical data to find profitable angles.

Promos, Odds Boosts, Parlay Builders

Don’t forget to use the tools your sportsbook gives you. Their parlay-building tools make it easy to construct your bets. Just be smart about it. Always check the terms on promotions and odds boosts – they can be a great way to add value, but sometimes they come with restrictions.

NXTbets: Turning Predictions into Profitable Parlays

So, where do you go from here? You understand that a good score prediction is the starting point for a great bet. You know that finding value, managing risk, and building parlays with discipline, not hope, is the key to long-term success. It is about blending the art of expert analysis with the science of data.

The most successful bettors use every tool at their disposal to find an edge. That is where we come in. At NXTbets, we are dedicated to giving you tips to put these lessons into practice. Join our community for our expert pick previews that data models can miss. 

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

They're better than you might think, but not perfect. Models that simulate games thousands of times can often predict the winner straight-up about 65-70% of the time. However, their accuracy against the spread is much tighter, usually hovering around 53-56%. The average error in the final score is often about 10 points, so there is always a degree of uncertainty.

Betting early in the week can give you an edge if you spot a line you think is wrong before public money moves it. However, waiting until closer to game time gives you the most up-to-date information on crucial factors like player injuries and weather forecasts, which can impact a game.

A parlay combines multiple bets into one, and you need every single leg to win at its original odds. A teaser also combines various bets, but it allows you to move the point spread or total in your favor (e.g., changing a -7.5 spread to -1.5). This makes the bet easier to win, but as a result, the payout is significantly lower than a standard parlay.