Betting on favorites feels safe, but it’s often where the books make their commission. The real is in the underdog parlays. Between the shift in defensive schemes and the market’s obsession with super teams, the value of underdogs is right there for exploitation.
At NXTbets, we look at the math that the books hope you ignore. This guide is about building your bets using data, timing, and a little bit of contrarian courage. Let’s turn those daring picks into profit!
You might think parlays are sucker bets. If you are throwing random 10-leg lotto tickets together, then they absolutely are. But when you strategically stack positive expected value (+EV) underdog legs, you aren’t just compounding your risk – you are multiplying your edge.
This season, the landscape is ripe for the taking. Why? Because the gap between the good teams and the bad teams isn’t as wide as the point spreads suggest, especially early on.
Early-Season Underdog Edge
The first three weeks of the NFL season are when the market is running on data from last year that might be totally irrelevant now. The books are guessing just as much as we are, and that’s where we strike.
When division rivals clash in Week 1, throw the power rankings out the window. These teams know each other’s playbooks inside out. The talent gap shrinks because of familiarity. The data backs this up aggressively:
Divisional dominance: Since 2014, divisional underdogs in Week 1 have gone 37–15–1 Against the Spread (ATS). That’s a cover rate of over 70%.
The small underdog: Underdogs getting 3 points or fewer are practically a gamble. Since 2015, these ‘small underdogs’ have a winning record ATS (36–26–5) and win outright nearly 50% of the time.
If you’re building a parlay, these are your anchor legs.
Big Dogs Thriving in Weeks 1–3
Now, what about the teams everyone expects to get blown out?
Historically, the market overreacts to perceived blowouts. In the first three weeks of the 2024 season, underdogs of 5.5+ points went an incredible 13–2 ATS and won 9 games outright.
Think about that. The teams the public wrote off were covering spreads at an 87% clip. Including a ‘Big Dog’ like the Panthers or Giants getting +7.5 in your parlay provides a massive cushion. Even if they lose by a touchdown, your ticket stays active.
Parlay Appeal in Volatile Early Games
Early-season NFL is chaotic. We see Super Bowl contenders lose to rebuilding squads constantly because chemistry takes time to build. This volatility is terrifying for a Survivor Pool player, but it’s perfect for an underdog parlay bettor.
When outcomes are unpredictable, the ‘favorite tax’ (the premium you pay to bet on good teams) is dead weight. By picking underdogs, you are essentially shorting the market’s false confidence. If you identify three games where the underdog has a legitimate 45-50% chance to win, but the books are pricing them at 35%, parlaying them creates massive value that single bets can’t match.
Building a Smart Underdog Parlay Strategy
Let’s talk about the how. You can’t just close your eyes and pick three teams with a ‘+’ next to their odds. That’s gambling, not investing.
Leg Selection - Balance Upside & Probability
Every leg of your parlay needs a reason to exist. Don’t add a leg just to boost the payout.
Credible reasoning: Is the favorite dealing with O-Line injuries? (That’s the #1 upset predictor). Is the underdog a divisional rival playing at home?
Avoid “dead” underdogs: If a team has a backup QB and a bottom-5 defense, leave them alone. We want value. For example, in 2025, the Seahawks (8-2 ATS) were an auto-include because they kept games close, whereas the Commanders (1-7 ATS) were fade material.
Diversify Bet Types
Don’t limit yourself to just the spread. Mix it up to capture different angles:
Moneyline (ML): Use this for small underdogs (+3 or less). If you think they cover +3, they likely win outright. Take the +130 payout instead of the -110 spread.
ATS: Use this for big underdogs (+7 or more). You want the points here.
Props: Correlate your picks! If you bet an underdog ML, consider parlaying it with the Under. Underdogs struggle to win shootouts; they win with low-scoring games.
Timing is Everything
Markets move. The Closing Line Value (CLV) is real.
Bet early: If you like an underdog, grab them early in the week. Pros usually hammer opening lines, moving a +7 down to a +5.5 by kickoff. You want that +7.
Fade the public: If you see 80% of the public betting on the Chiefs, but the line moves towards the Broncos (Reverse Line Movement), that’s a sign pointing to the underdog.
Hedge the Final Leg When Needed
Scenario: You hit the first 3 legs of your 4-leg parlay on Sunday. The payout is $1,000. The final leg is on Monday Night Football: The Raiders (+3.5).
The Strategy: You bet against your Raiders pick (betting on the opponent at -3.5) for a calculated amount.
Why? It locks in profit. Whether the Raiders win or lose, you walk away with cash.
The math: If your potential payout is $1,100, you might hedge $550 on the opponent. If the parlay loses, your hedge wins. If the parlay wins, you still profit minus the hedge cost. It lowers your ceiling but raises your floor significantly.
Use Round Robins for Flexibility
If you love five different underdogs but are terrified of going 4-for-5 and winning nothing, use a Round Robin.
This breaks your 5-team parlay into smaller combinations (e.g., ten different 2-team parlays).
The benefit: If 3 of your 5 dogs win, you still profit from the winning combinations. It’s an insurance policy against that one bad pick.
Trends to Watch Across the Season
The trends that guarantee money in September can bankrupt you in December. You have to adapt.
Shift from Underdog Value to Favorite Dominance
Here’s a warning label for your strategy: The underdog edge fades.
By November and December, we know who the bad teams are.
The data: In recent seasons, double-digit favorites (the super teams) have dominated late in the year, going 35-26-1 ATS.
Why? Motivation. Playoff teams crush teams that are tanking for draft picks. Be very careful betting on a 3-win team in December just because they are getting 10 points.
Avoid Over-Reliance Later in Season
Don’t force the underdog strategy when the calendar turns. In Weeks 10-18, shift your focus. Instead of betting on underdogs, look for specific spots:
Divisional spoilers: A bad team playing a division rival who needs a win. (e.g., The Broncos vs. Chiefs in late-season matchups).
Desperation underdogs: Teams fighting for their playoff lives are dangerous underdogs.
Monitor Last Season’s Underdog Successes
Look at the previous season’s data to find the cover kings. In 2024, despite the narrative of favorites winning, select underdogs like the Detroit Lions were cash cows, going 12-5 ATS.
On the other hand, teams like the Titans were money pits (2-14-1 ATS). Knowing which underdogs have the coaching to cover spreads is crucial.
Historical Upsets Still Inspire Belief
Never forget that anything can happen. That’s why we watch.
Super Bowl III: Joe Namath and the Jets were massive underdogs.
2007 Giants: Ruining the Patriots’ perfect season.
1998 Broncos: Breaking the Packers’ dominance.
These legendary upsets remind us that the spread is just a number. If you have a conviction, trust it. The biggest payouts come when the rest of the world thinks you are crazy.
Real-Time Parlay Examples & Tips
Let’s paint a picture of what a smart Week 1 underdog parlay looks like.
Hypothetical Week 1 Ticket:
Leg 1: Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) vs. Houston Texans (divisional home dog? Check)
Leg 2: Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (Mike Tomlin as a dog? Auto-bet)
Leg 3: Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (big dog inflation)
The bet: $50 wager.
The potential payout: roughly +600 odds (Pays $300).
How to Handle It:
Line shopping: Before placing this, you checked DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Maybe FanDuel had the Colts at +3.5 while everyone else had +3. That hook (the 0.5) is critical. It turns a push into a win.
The sweat: Let’s say the Colts and Steelers win early. You are now staring at the Cardinals game.
The hedge: If you are nervous, you place a live moneyline bet on the Bills. You sacrifice some profit to guarantee you don’t walk away empty-handed.
Tracking:
Use a spreadsheetor an app to track your ROI. Did you lose because of bad luck (a fumble on the 1-yard line) or bad process (betting on a QB with a broken thumb)? Adjust this sheet weekly.
NXTbets: Turning Underdog Picks into Strategic Parlays
The edge in sports betting doesn’t come from knowing who the better team is. It comes from knowing when the price is wrong.
Underdog parlays offer value, but they require discipline. You need to align trends, select legs with purpose, andmanage your bankrollso you can weather the variance.
That’s where we come in. Use our data to find those divisional trends. With NXTbets as your analytic partner, you can start betting with your reliable data.
What betting types optimize a multi-leg underdog parlay?
Mix moneylines for small dogs (+3 or less) to maximize payout, and spreads (ATS) for big dogs (+5.5 or more) to add safety. Adding correlated props (like an ‘Under’ total with an underdog spread) can also increase your edge.
Are underdog trends still viable late in the season?
They become riskier. By December, favorites (especially double-digit ones) historically dominate ATS as motivation gaps widen between playoff contenders and tanking teams. You should be more selective and focus on divisional spoilers rather than blind underdog betting.
How can weather or motivation affect underdog outcomes?
Bad weather (wind/snow) lowers scoring, which favors underdogs (fewer points mean higher variance). Motivation is key late in the season – an underdog fighting for a playoff spot is a great bet; an underdog looking at mock drafts is not.
Should I adjust my approach if underdogs are underperforming?
Yes. If you notice a shift (like the 2025 trend of favorites dominating in Week 12), modify your criteria. Don’t force the strategy if the market has adjusted. Pivot to props or lower your volume until the trends stabilize.
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Every NFL season features strong and famous favorites. However, the often overlooked underdogs also present real betting value. Underdog results are mostly untidy. The actual edge originates from the price and not bold predictions. Therefore, staying grounded in market behavior and numbers is what will set you apart from bettors relying on guesswork. At NXTbets, we …
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NFL Underdog Parlay Picks This Season
Table of Contents
Betting on favorites feels safe, but it’s often where the books make their commission. The real is in the underdog parlays. Between the shift in defensive schemes and the market’s obsession with super teams, the value of underdogs is right there for exploitation.
At NXTbets, we look at the math that the books hope you ignore. This guide is about building your bets using data, timing, and a little bit of contrarian courage. Let’s turn those daring picks into profit!
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Why Underdog Parlays Can Pay This Season
You might think parlays are sucker bets. If you are throwing random 10-leg lotto tickets together, then they absolutely are. But when you strategically stack positive expected value (+EV) underdog legs, you aren’t just compounding your risk – you are multiplying your edge.
This season, the landscape is ripe for the taking. Why? Because the gap between the good teams and the bad teams isn’t as wide as the point spreads suggest, especially early on.
Early-Season Underdog Edge
The first three weeks of the NFL season are when the market is running on data from last year that might be totally irrelevant now. The books are guessing just as much as we are, and that’s where we strike.
When division rivals clash in Week 1, throw the power rankings out the window. These teams know each other’s playbooks inside out. The talent gap shrinks because of familiarity. The data backs this up aggressively:
If you’re building a parlay, these are your anchor legs.
Big Dogs Thriving in Weeks 1–3
Now, what about the teams everyone expects to get blown out?
Historically, the market overreacts to perceived blowouts. In the first three weeks of the 2024 season, underdogs of 5.5+ points went an incredible 13–2 ATS and won 9 games outright.
Think about that. The teams the public wrote off were covering spreads at an 87% clip. Including a ‘Big Dog’ like the Panthers or Giants getting +7.5 in your parlay provides a massive cushion. Even if they lose by a touchdown, your ticket stays active.
Parlay Appeal in Volatile Early Games
Early-season NFL is chaotic. We see Super Bowl contenders lose to rebuilding squads constantly because chemistry takes time to build. This volatility is terrifying for a Survivor Pool player, but it’s perfect for an underdog parlay bettor.
When outcomes are unpredictable, the ‘favorite tax’ (the premium you pay to bet on good teams) is dead weight. By picking underdogs, you are essentially shorting the market’s false confidence. If you identify three games where the underdog has a legitimate 45-50% chance to win, but the books are pricing them at 35%, parlaying them creates massive value that single bets can’t match.
Building a Smart Underdog Parlay Strategy
Let’s talk about the how. You can’t just close your eyes and pick three teams with a ‘+’ next to their odds. That’s gambling, not investing.
Leg Selection - Balance Upside & Probability
Every leg of your parlay needs a reason to exist. Don’t add a leg just to boost the payout.
Diversify Bet Types
Don’t limit yourself to just the spread. Mix it up to capture different angles:
Timing is Everything
Markets move. The Closing Line Value (CLV) is real.
Hedge the Final Leg When Needed
Scenario: You hit the first 3 legs of your 4-leg parlay on Sunday. The payout is $1,000. The final leg is on Monday Night Football: The Raiders (+3.5).
The Strategy: You bet against your Raiders pick (betting on the opponent at -3.5) for a calculated amount.
Use Round Robins for Flexibility
If you love five different underdogs but are terrified of going 4-for-5 and winning nothing, use a Round Robin.
This breaks your 5-team parlay into smaller combinations (e.g., ten different 2-team parlays).
Trends to Watch Across the Season
The trends that guarantee money in September can bankrupt you in December. You have to adapt.
Shift from Underdog Value to Favorite Dominance
Here’s a warning label for your strategy: The underdog edge fades.
By November and December, we know who the bad teams are.
Avoid Over-Reliance Later in Season
Don’t force the underdog strategy when the calendar turns. In Weeks 10-18, shift your focus. Instead of betting on underdogs, look for specific spots:
Monitor Last Season’s Underdog Successes
Look at the previous season’s data to find the cover kings. In 2024, despite the narrative of favorites winning, select underdogs like the Detroit Lions were cash cows, going 12-5 ATS.
On the other hand, teams like the Titans were money pits (2-14-1 ATS). Knowing which underdogs have the coaching to cover spreads is crucial.
Historical Upsets Still Inspire Belief
Never forget that anything can happen. That’s why we watch.
These legendary upsets remind us that the spread is just a number. If you have a conviction, trust it. The biggest payouts come when the rest of the world thinks you are crazy.
Real-Time Parlay Examples & Tips
Let’s paint a picture of what a smart Week 1 underdog parlay looks like.
Hypothetical Week 1 Ticket:
The bet: $50 wager.
The potential payout: roughly +600 odds (Pays $300).
How to Handle It:
Tracking:
Use a spreadsheet or an app to track your ROI. Did you lose because of bad luck (a fumble on the 1-yard line) or bad process (betting on a QB with a broken thumb)? Adjust this sheet weekly.
NXTbets: Turning Underdog Picks into Strategic Parlays
The edge in sports betting doesn’t come from knowing who the better team is. It comes from knowing when the price is wrong.
Underdog parlays offer value, but they require discipline. You need to align trends, select legs with purpose, and manage your bankroll so you can weather the variance.
That’s where we come in. Use our data to find those divisional trends. With NXTbets as your analytic partner, you can start betting with your reliable data.
Subscribe to our newsletter to stay ahead of the market shifts.
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Mix moneylines for small dogs (+3 or less) to maximize payout, and spreads (ATS) for big dogs (+5.5 or more) to add safety. Adding correlated props (like an ‘Under’ total with an underdog spread) can also increase your edge.
They become riskier. By December, favorites (especially double-digit ones) historically dominate ATS as motivation gaps widen between playoff contenders and tanking teams. You should be more selective and focus on divisional spoilers rather than blind underdog betting.
Bad weather (wind/snow) lowers scoring, which favors underdogs (fewer points mean higher variance). Motivation is key late in the season – an underdog fighting for a playoff spot is a great bet; an underdog looking at mock drafts is not.
Yes. If you notice a shift (like the 2025 trend of favorites dominating in Week 12), modify your criteria. Don’t force the strategy if the market has adjusted. Pivot to props or lower your volume until the trends stabilize.
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