Phoenix Cup race won’t decide NASCAR championship for first time since 2019
NXTbets Pro | Published On: October 14, 2026
Phoenix championship
Phoenix Raceway’s fall NASCAR Cup Series race will not decide the championship for the first time since 2019, and Sunday’s Freeway Insurance 500 arrives with Kyle Larson in control of the title race. Larson carries a 49-point lead over Denny Hamlin into the event and comes off a sixth-place finish at Charlotte. His 2.8 average finish through the first six Chase races has made him the championship favorite, and the margin gives him room to absorb trouble at a track that has shaped plenty of late-season drama in recent years. The shift away from Phoenix as the championship race changes the stakes, but it does not change the pressure at the front of the standings. Larson still has to protect his lead with Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead-Miami ahead, and the Phoenix stop remains a major checkpoint in that run. The race also puts several contenders back on a track where recent form matters and where small mistakes can change the shape of the Chase in a hurry.
Larson lead
Larson’s Phoenix record gives him another layer of confidence. He has one Phoenix win, 12 top-fives and 16 top-10s in 24 career starts there. Those numbers do not match Ryan Blaney’s recent surge at the track, but they do show Larson has stayed near the front across a long stretch of races in the desert. Hamlin also brings a strong Phoenix résumé. He has 42 Phoenix starts, two wins and 23 top-10s, plus a Cup-record 31 straight lead-lap finishes at the track. That kind of consistency keeps him in the conversation every time NASCAR heads back to Arizona. Christopher Bell adds another threat. He has two Phoenix victories and led 176 laps in the spring race before finishing second. Those results matter because Phoenix has rewarded drivers who can manage long runs, hold position late and keep pace when the race tightens up in the closing stages. Larson owns the points lead, but the drivers around him have enough history at Phoenix to make Sunday a real test rather than a simple status check.
Briscoe’s surge
Chase Briscoe brings the hottest form into the Phoenix race after back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Charlotte. He has cut 58 points off Larson over the last two races and has turned himself into a factor as the Chase moves toward the final stretch. Briscoe’s Phoenix numbers are more modest than the recent win streak, though he still has one Phoenix win, one top-five and four top-10s in 11 starts there. His 18.4 average finish at the track shows how hard Phoenix has been for him at times, and his 37th-place finish in the spring 2026 race adds another reminder that the track has not always matched his current momentum. Even so, the wins have changed the picture around him. Briscoe has found speed at the right time, and that matters with the Chase now heading toward tracks that can amplify both momentum and mistakes. His recent climb has tightened the points battle and added a layer of urgency for the front-runners, especially Larson. The race also gives Blaney another chance to build on one of the strongest Phoenix records in the field. He won the March 2026 Phoenix race and the 2025 fall race, and he has two Phoenix wins, 11 top-fives and 14 top-10s in 21 career starts there. Between Blaney’s recent success, Hamlin’s consistency and Bell’s pace, Phoenix remains loaded with drivers who know how to run up front when the race matters most.
