Ryan Blaney opens as betting favorite for Freeway Insurance 500
NXTbets Pro | Published On: October 16, 2026
Blaney favorite
Team Penske leads the fantasy conversation at Phoenix Raceway with four races left in the 2026 Cup Series season. The board puts Blaney at +370, with Christopher Bell next at +450 and Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin tied at +600. That group gives fantasy players the clearest starting point, and Blaney sits at the center of it. He is the top fantasy recommendation and a must-start driver at Phoenix Raceway, and the recent track record backs that up. Blaney has six top-two finishes in his last eight Phoenix starts, a run that keeps him in the strongest position on the grid. Bell also brings a strong Phoenix profile into the race, with two wins in his last five Phoenix races. Logano adds another proven record at the track with four career victories at Phoenix Raceway, while Hamlin remains in the same short-odds tier on the betting sheet. When the favorite comes with a top-tier track history and the next names on the list all carry proven Phoenix credentials, the race setup points fantasy managers toward the same small group of front-line options. USA Network is set to carry the race, and the 3 p.m. Eastern time start gives the event a clear afternoon window for bettors and fantasy players watching the opening lines.
Fantasy targets
Christopher Bell and Joey Logano join Blaney as must-start fantasy drivers at Phoenix Raceway, and that trio anchors the strongest recommendations in the story. Bell brings upside from his recent Phoenix form, while Logano offers the kind of track résumé that keeps him near the top of any shortlist. Josh Berry lands in the fantasy play category, which makes him one of the supporting options for managers looking beyond the obvious favorites. William Byron is listed as a sleeper pick, another name that gives the slate some depth if a lineup needs a different path. The recommendations also point in the opposite direction for two drivers with poor Phoenix notes attached to their names. Ty Gibbs is recommended to avoid because of his Phoenix track record, and Carson Hocevar gets the same treatment for the same reason. Those calls matter because Phoenix often rewards drivers who carry comfort at the track, and the story leans hard into that theme. Riley Herbst is the 36-for-36 selection, a detail that sets him apart in the fantasy build and gives the post one more piece of lineup guidance. Put together, the list separates the must-start group from the secondary plays and the avoid list, which is exactly the kind of structure fantasy players need when the field narrows late in the season. Blaney, Bell and Logano sit at the top. Berry and Byron provide different kinds of value. Gibbs and Hocevar carry the warning label.
Matchup picks
The featured matchup picks reinforce the same shape at the top of the board. Denny Hamlin is favored over Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney is favored over Christopher Bell, Joey Logano is favored over Chase Briscoe and Bubba Wallace is favored over Chase Elliott. Each of those calls gives a direct read on how the race shapes up for players looking at head-to-head options instead of the outright winner market. Hamlin’s side of the board keeps him in strong company with the short odds group, while Blaney’s edge over Bell adds another layer to his status as the leading fantasy recommendation and betting favorite. Logano’s spot over Briscoe fits with his strong Phoenix record and his place among the must-start fantasy drivers. Wallace’s edge over Elliott rounds out the featured matchups and gives the card another clear side. The overall picture stays consistent across the story. Blaney leads the way at +370. Bell follows at +450. Logano and Hamlin sit together at +600. Blaney has the strongest recent Phoenix form among the favorites, Bell has the recent win count, and Logano has the most Phoenix victories in his career among the names highlighted here. That mix of odds, track history and fantasy labels makes the race card one of the most defined of the season’s final stretch.
