We are witnessing the tightest Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship battle in 15 years. For the first time since 2010, more than two pilots are in with a shot of walking away with the title. Lando Norris sits 12 points clear of Max Verstappen, while Oscar Piastri is a further four points adrift of the Dutchman. We’ve run the numbers and have laid out who needs to do what ahead of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Outside of the title showdown, there are a few racers in with a shot of moving up the leaderboard to close out their campaigns. Most notably, it is rookie Kimi Antonelli who needs two points to overtake Lewis Hamilton for a top-six position in the standings. Just below them, Carlos Sainz is nine points short of his teammate Alex Albon, who occupies eighth spot leading into the finale.
Elsewhere, Yuki Tsunoda will desperately be searching for six points to try and overtake Liam Lawson. It won’t put him in contention for any accolades, but it will give him a sense of accomplishment after Red Bull demoted him for the 2026 term. At the foot of the table, Gabriel Bortoleto is after four points to move him out of second-last ahead of Pierre Gasly. Speaking of Alpine drivers, Franco Colapinto looks destined to bag the wooden spoon and will have his sights set on a more fruitful 2026.
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Driver
Points
Lando Norris
408
Max Verstappen
396
Oscar Piastri
392
George Russell
309
Charles Leclerc
230
Lewis Hamilton
152
Kimi Antonelli
150
Alexander Albon
73
Carlos Sainz
64
Isack Hadjar
51
Nico Hulkenberg
49
Fernando Alonso
48
Oliver Bearman
41
Liam Lawson
38
Yuki Tsunoda
33
Esteban Ocon
32
Lance Stroll
32
Pierre Gasly
22
Gabriel Bortoleto
19
Franco Colapinto
0
F1 Drivers Championship Futures Odds
There is little surprise seeing Lando Norris‘ name at the forefront of the Drivers’ Championship odds heading into the final round. He holds the advantage over his rivals and lines up in Abu Dhabi as the defending champ. His lead is clear, but his odds are short, and we’re after bang for our buck. That’s why the reigning World Champion, Max Verstappen, has caught our eye at +524. He’s well-versed in these pressure scenarios and has triumphed at the Yas Marina Circuit four times in his previous five visits. Oscar Piastri impressed us last weekend, but his team and their tactics let him down. Can the Australian deliver the mother of all upsets at +1531 to leave the Middle East a Champion?
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Driver
Moneyline
Payout on $20
Lando Norris
-351
$25.70
Max Verstappen
+524
$124.80
Oscar Piastri
+1531
$326.20
F1 Drivers Championship Winner Permutations
Lando Norris
Championship leader Lando Norris is the man to beat leading into the United Arab Emirates, but can he fend off the charge of Verstappen and his colleague, Piastri? The mission is simple for the Briton. Finish on the podium and collect the trophy. These three positions will put the title out of the hands of his rivals, no matter where they finish. If the leader crosses the line between fourth and seventh place, he’ll have to hope that the chasers finish second or lower.
Should Norris struggle at the Yas Marina Circuit and cross the line outside of seventh place, “Mad Max” needs to finish third or worse for Mr. “Last Lap” to enter Victory Lane. Even if Lando fails to claim any points, he can still win, but Verstappen ust finish fourth or below and Piastri, third or worse.
Max Verstappen
Naturally, the easiest route to a fifth world title is to claim the checkered flag in Abu Dhabi. However, if he fails to win the race, Max Verstappen can still take the title. A runner-up return would give him 18 points, requiring Lando to score five or fewer. That means the series leader would lose the title if he finished in eighth place or lower. Finally, Max has a sliver of hope if he takes the final spot on the podium. But, he would need Norris to endure a shocker and finish ninth or worse.
Oscar Piastri
After leading the Championship for the majority of the season, Oscar Piastri starts the finale in third. However, he can still claw his way to victory, but the odds are stacked against him. The Australian has to finish first or second to capture enough points to leapfrog Verstappen and Norris. However, his fate is out of his hands. A win isn’t enough alone, because he would need Norris to finish sixth or lower.
Piastri can still sneak the title if he finishes in second, but he’ll rely on the struggles of his teammate and Verstappen. Norris can only collect a single unit to hand his colleague the victory, and Verstappen must finish fourth or worse.
What Happens If Two Drivers Tie?
If two drivers are tied at the top of the table, officials revert to countback. They start with the driver who won the most races, and as it stands, all three title contenders have taken top honors in seven races this year. Then, the next step is to look at runner-ups, and this is where Lando Norris is head and shoulders above his peers on eight.
Final Thoughts
Lando Norris enters the final weekend of the year in the proverbial driver’s seat, holding a 12-point lead. A podium is all he needs to secure the Drivers’ Championship on Sunday in Abu Dhabi, but if he falters, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri will be waiting in the wings to pounce. While all three stand a chance, we feel the fight is more realistically between the current leader and the four-time World Champion. Who is your money on?
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2025 F1 Drivers’ Championship Update Ahead Of The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Table of Contents
We are witnessing the tightest Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship battle in 15 years. For the first time since 2010, more than two pilots are in with a shot of walking away with the title. Lando Norris sits 12 points clear of Max Verstappen, while Oscar Piastri is a further four points adrift of the Dutchman. We’ve run the numbers and have laid out who needs to do what ahead of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
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F1 Drivers' Championship Points
Outside of the title showdown, there are a few racers in with a shot of moving up the leaderboard to close out their campaigns. Most notably, it is rookie Kimi Antonelli who needs two points to overtake Lewis Hamilton for a top-six position in the standings. Just below them, Carlos Sainz is nine points short of his teammate Alex Albon, who occupies eighth spot leading into the finale.
Elsewhere, Yuki Tsunoda will desperately be searching for six points to try and overtake Liam Lawson. It won’t put him in contention for any accolades, but it will give him a sense of accomplishment after Red Bull demoted him for the 2026 term. At the foot of the table, Gabriel Bortoleto is after four points to move him out of second-last ahead of Pierre Gasly. Speaking of Alpine drivers, Franco Colapinto looks destined to bag the wooden spoon and will have his sights set on a more fruitful 2026.
swipe to see more
F1 Drivers Championship Futures Odds
There is little surprise seeing Lando Norris‘ name at the forefront of the Drivers’ Championship odds heading into the final round. He holds the advantage over his rivals and lines up in Abu Dhabi as the defending champ. His lead is clear, but his odds are short, and we’re after bang for our buck. That’s why the reigning World Champion, Max Verstappen, has caught our eye at +524. He’s well-versed in these pressure scenarios and has triumphed at the Yas Marina Circuit four times in his previous five visits. Oscar Piastri impressed us last weekend, but his team and their tactics let him down. Can the Australian deliver the mother of all upsets at +1531 to leave the Middle East a Champion?
swipe to see more
F1 Drivers Championship Winner Permutations
Lando Norris
Championship leader Lando Norris is the man to beat leading into the United Arab Emirates, but can he fend off the charge of Verstappen and his colleague, Piastri? The mission is simple for the Briton. Finish on the podium and collect the trophy. These three positions will put the title out of the hands of his rivals, no matter where they finish. If the leader crosses the line between fourth and seventh place, he’ll have to hope that the chasers finish second or lower.
Should Norris struggle at the Yas Marina Circuit and cross the line outside of seventh place, “Mad Max” needs to finish third or worse for Mr. “Last Lap” to enter Victory Lane. Even if Lando fails to claim any points, he can still win, but Verstappen ust finish fourth or below and Piastri, third or worse.
Max Verstappen
Naturally, the easiest route to a fifth world title is to claim the checkered flag in Abu Dhabi. However, if he fails to win the race, Max Verstappen can still take the title. A runner-up return would give him 18 points, requiring Lando to score five or fewer. That means the series leader would lose the title if he finished in eighth place or lower. Finally, Max has a sliver of hope if he takes the final spot on the podium. But, he would need Norris to endure a shocker and finish ninth or worse.
Oscar Piastri
After leading the Championship for the majority of the season, Oscar Piastri starts the finale in third. However, he can still claw his way to victory, but the odds are stacked against him. The Australian has to finish first or second to capture enough points to leapfrog Verstappen and Norris. However, his fate is out of his hands. A win isn’t enough alone, because he would need Norris to finish sixth or lower.
Piastri can still sneak the title if he finishes in second, but he’ll rely on the struggles of his teammate and Verstappen. Norris can only collect a single unit to hand his colleague the victory, and Verstappen must finish fourth or worse.
What Happens If Two Drivers Tie?
If two drivers are tied at the top of the table, officials revert to countback. They start with the driver who won the most races, and as it stands, all three title contenders have taken top honors in seven races this year. Then, the next step is to look at runner-ups, and this is where Lando Norris is head and shoulders above his peers on eight.
Final Thoughts
Lando Norris enters the final weekend of the year in the proverbial driver’s seat, holding a 12-point lead. A podium is all he needs to secure the Drivers’ Championship on Sunday in Abu Dhabi, but if he falters, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri will be waiting in the wings to pounce. While all three stand a chance, we feel the fight is more realistically between the current leader and the four-time World Champion. Who is your money on?
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Best Bets: F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis
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