The roar of engines and the scent of burnt rubber at Buddh International Circuit are now behind us as the Grand Prix of India crowned Marco Bezzecchi the winner, in a race that heightened tensions in the title chase. Ducati reigned supreme with Bezzecchi and Jorge Martín claiming the top spots, while Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo secured third. A significant narrative was Pecco Bagnaia’s loss of vital championship points, narrowing the gap to a mere 13 points between him and the ever-persistent Martín.
Repsol Honda Team, traditionally strong contenders, faced a challenging weekend. Marc Márquez, despite his commendable grit after a crash, finished ninth. Meanwhile, Joan Mir showcased a surge of improvement, finishing fifth and setting an optimistic tone for Honda as they approach their home Grand Prix in Japan.
Now, we turn our sights to Japan. Mobility Resort Motegi awaits the riders, a circuit filled with its own unique challenges and stories. As the championship fight intensifies, the Grand Prix of Japan promises exhilarating racing and an intriguing contest for bettors. The question looms – can Ducati maintain their dominance, or will another team rise to challenge the Italian giants? Stay with us as we dive deep into odds, analyses, and the top picks for the Japanese showdown.
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Schedule and How to Watch the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
The Twin Ring Motegi is abuzz with anticipation, readying itself for a series of riveting MotoGP events from September 29th to October 1st. It’s all leading up to the crowning glory: the Grand Prix of Japan. For a detailed view of the weekend’s events, refer to the official schedule. For enthusiasts who can’t be at the venue in person, be sure to check the official MotoGP website for viewing options. (Note: While live broadcasts might be limited in certain regions, including the US, you can still catch comprehensive race highlights and updates on the website!) If betting is on your agenda, don’t forget to follow the live action and keep an eye on NXTbets for updates on odds and prices.
Best Bets and Picks for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
With a range of betting options available, from Event Winner to Head-to-Head bets, bettors are presented with a wide spectrum of wagering opportunities. Here are our top picks and dark horse selections for this event:
Top Picks and Bets
Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Francesco Bagnaia
+317
$83.40
Jorge Martin
+413
$102.60
Marco Bezzecchi
+525
$125.00
Brad Binder
+999
$219.80
Fabio Quartararo
+1063
$232.60
Leading the odds is Francesco Bagnaia, and rightly so. His consistent season and being the current championship leader place him in good stead, but the recent setback at the Indian GP could play on his mind, especially with teammate Jorge Martin snapping at his heels.
Jorge Martin, with odds of +413, has been a revelation this season. Having inched to within 13 points of Bagnaia’s standings lead with his 2nd place finish at the Indian GP, he showcases momentum and determination, proving that he is not just in the fight but a genuine threat to the championship.
Marco Bezzecchi, fresh from his victory lap in India, comes into Motegi with a shot of confidence. His odds reflect not just his recent win but also a season where he has consistently been a podium threat.
Brad Binder and Fabio Quartararo, both offering longer odds, are wild cards in this race. Binder’s consistency places him fourth in the general standings, while Quartararo, despite being further down the odds list, has shown he can clinch podium finishes. Both riders have the capability to upset the perceived hierarchy and throw in a twist at Motegi.
Outsider Picks
Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
+1438
$307.60
Johann Zarco
+1438
$307.60
Aleix Espargaro
+1718
$363.60
Marc Marquez, with odds of +1438, may not have had his best season, but his reputation as a multi-time world champion precedes him. Motegi’s technical nature, combined with Marquez’s penchant for late braking and aggressive cornering, makes him a formidable contender. Despite his unfortunate slip in India, his ability to swiftly climb back and finish ninth demonstrates the Spaniard’s indomitable spirit and resilience.
Johann Zarco, possessing the same odds as Marquez, has had flashes of brilliance this season. Racing for Ducati, a machine that has been dominant throughout, there’s always the possibility that Zarco finds the sweet spot with the setup and emerges as a surprising frontrunner. His consistent performances and occasional podium finishes give weight to this speculation.
Aleix Espargaro‘s +1718 odds might make him the lengthiest shot of the trio, but the Aprilia rider has been in the form of his life. The bike’s notable performance improvements combined with Espargaro’s vast experience mean he could exploit any weaknesses in the favorites, especially if unpredictable conditions level the playing field. With the nature of MotoGP being as unpredictable as it is, dismissing any of these outsiders would be unwise.
Head-To-Head Picks
For the imminent duel at the Motegi’s Mobility Resort, anticipation is at fever pitch as numerous matchups are set to captivate and enthrall. Weighing in on recent performances, past records at this Japanese circuit, and its distinct challenges, we’ve spotlighted some of the most electrifying head-to-head confrontations poised to unfold at the Grand Prix of Japan:
Matchup
(Favorite in Bold)
Winner Odds
Joan Mir vs. Franco Morbidelli
-104
Fabio Quartararo vs. Marc Marquez
-122
Johann Zarco vs. Marc Marquez
-102
Miguel Oliveira vs. Jack Miller
-106
Maverick Vinales vs. Miguel Oliveira
-115
Jorge Martin vs. Brad Binder
-110
Augusto Fernandez vs. Takaaki Nakagami
-138
Expert Pick for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
After a stellar performance in India, Jorge Martín has showcased not only his race pace but also his ability to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Riding a Ducati, which has been dominant this season, Martín’s continuous closing of the points gap indicates his escalating form. With only a 13-point deficit to the leader, Bagnaia, Martín will be extra motivated to bridge this gap. Given his +413 odds, this pick offers a valuable combination of likelihood and return, making it an enticing choice for the Japan GP.
Where to Bet on the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
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The imminent race at the Mobility Resort Motegi is set to be an adrenaline-charged spectacle for MotoGP fans and bettors alike. Whether you’re supporting the established frontrunners or placing faith in the underdogs, prepare for an exhilarating blend of world-class racing and compelling betting opportunities.
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KTM arrived at the Sepang test with a revised 2026 RC16 package, featuring a new chassis concept, updated aero parts, and a new swingarm. The team opted to split its factory program between development and consolidation. The strategy paid early dividends after the team completed the opening day as the second-fastest on the timesheets behind Ducati, with Tech3’s Maverick Viñales posting a late 1:57.295 that underlined early pace. KTM used the day to validate the new parts. The team ran a dual approach with Pedro Acosta concentrated on chassis and aerodynamic development, while Brad Binder followed a more conservative program aimed at regaining outright speed.
Acosta, 21, described the new shortened chassis as “promising” and said the configuration was “working,” but he also reported unusual vibrations from the very first lap and limited his opening-day running. He spent his morning exploring chassis setups, used more of his tire allocation than planned, completed an early medium-tire run before switching to softs, and finished 15th on the combined times. He left the day, planning further aero work to improve turning and front-end stability. Acosta’s program prioritized feel and component evaluation over time-attack laps, and KTM noted these early mechanical and stability signals while managing run plans.
Binder, 30, posted consistent lap times around 2:00.2–2:00.3 and initially rode the same chassis he used in Valencia, reporting little chattering as he worked on pace. He also compared the new swingarm against the older design to assess differences, while Acosta focused on aero and chassis feel. Both riders and the factory expected Wednesday to be the main day for further aerodynamic and component evaluations, and KTM said a more definitive assessment of tire behavior and the updated package should become clearer towards the end of the test. The opening session, therefore, underscored KTM’s two-track strategy and highlighted the specific areas, including front-end stability, vibrations, and tire behavior, that the team needs to address before the season.
Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event …
Alex ditched the Marquez show in the Netherlands after he failed to finish, but his older brother Mark was more than happy to take the solo role. “The Ant of Cervera” won his third consecutive Grand Prix on the trot in the previous round, extending his Championship lead and securing his sixth triumph in 10 …
Pedro Acosta left Buriram having narrowed a clear development gap but still chasing the outright pace of Aprilia and Ducati. The 2026 RC16 was “doing no strange things,” he said, feeling more natural with reduced vibration and improved front-end feel. Acosta completed trouble-free 24–25-lap race simulations showing strong tire preservation and finished the two-day test as the fastest KTM in sixth, roughly 0.3s off Marco Bezzecchi’s benchmark. KTM’s factory and Tech3 teams said they had finalized their 2026 package and felt prepared for the Thai season opener.
Aprilia and Ducati underlined their status as the yardsticks at Buriram. Bezzecchi topped the test with a record 1’28.668 lap and strong long-run form (a 20-lap average around 1’30.4). Four Aprilias featured high on the timesheets, and Trackhouse-backed Ai Ogura was second, just 0.097s adrift. Ducati also showed competitive pace, with Marc Márquez, Francesco Bagnaia, and Álex Márquez filling the next positions. The older Márquez brother continued to post leading Sunday qualifying-simulation times despite crashes and illness.
Acosta and KTM framed the progress as tangible but incomplete, and praised Aprilia and Ducati’s race simulations as “awesome.” They warned that rivals’ exceptional simulations make preparation and starting position decisive, and suggested KTM could realistically start the season as the third-best manufacturer. With pre-season testing wrapped at Buriram, teams now turn to the Thai GP next weekend, where the first pole, Tissot Sprint, and race win of the season will be decided.
Best Bets: 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan Pre-Event Odds
Table of Contents
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Schedule and How to Watch the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Best Bets and Picks for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Top Picks and Bets
Outsider Picks
Head-To-Head Picks
Expert Pick for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Where to Bet on the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
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KTM Validates 2026 RC16 Updates, Ends P2 Behind Ducati
KTM arrived at the Sepang test with a revised 2026 RC16 package, featuring a new chassis concept, updated aero parts, and a new swingarm. The team opted to split its factory program between development and consolidation. The strategy paid early dividends after the team completed the opening day as the second-fastest on the timesheets behind Ducati, with Tech3’s Maverick Viñales posting a late 1:57.295 that underlined early pace. KTM used the day to validate the new parts. The team ran a dual approach with Pedro Acosta concentrated on chassis and aerodynamic development, while Brad Binder followed a more conservative program aimed at regaining outright speed.
Acosta, 21, described the new shortened chassis as “promising” and said the configuration was “working,” but he also reported unusual vibrations from the very first lap and limited his opening-day running. He spent his morning exploring chassis setups, used more of his tire allocation than planned, completed an early medium-tire run before switching to softs, and finished 15th on the combined times. He left the day, planning further aero work to improve turning and front-end stability. Acosta’s program prioritized feel and component evaluation over time-attack laps, and KTM noted these early mechanical and stability signals while managing run plans.
Binder, 30, posted consistent lap times around 2:00.2–2:00.3 and initially rode the same chassis he used in Valencia, reporting little chattering as he worked on pace. He also compared the new swingarm against the older design to assess differences, while Acosta focused on aero and chassis feel. Both riders and the factory expected Wednesday to be the main day for further aerodynamic and component evaluations, and KTM said a more definitive assessment of tire behavior and the updated package should become clearer towards the end of the test. The opening session, therefore, underscored KTM’s two-track strategy and highlighted the specific areas, including front-end stability, vibrations, and tire behavior, that the team needs to address before the season.
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Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event …
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Alex ditched the Marquez show in the Netherlands after he failed to finish, but his older brother Mark was more than happy to take the solo role. “The Ant of Cervera” won his third consecutive Grand Prix on the trot in the previous round, extending his Championship lead and securing his sixth triumph in 10 …
Bezzecchi Sets Buriram Record as Aprilia, Ogura Lead Pace
Pedro Acosta left Buriram having narrowed a clear development gap but still chasing the outright pace of Aprilia and Ducati. The 2026 RC16 was “doing no strange things,” he said, feeling more natural with reduced vibration and improved front-end feel. Acosta completed trouble-free 24–25-lap race simulations showing strong tire preservation and finished the two-day test as the fastest KTM in sixth, roughly 0.3s off Marco Bezzecchi’s benchmark. KTM’s factory and Tech3 teams said they had finalized their 2026 package and felt prepared for the Thai season opener.
Aprilia and Ducati underlined their status as the yardsticks at Buriram. Bezzecchi topped the test with a record 1’28.668 lap and strong long-run form (a 20-lap average around 1’30.4). Four Aprilias featured high on the timesheets, and Trackhouse-backed Ai Ogura was second, just 0.097s adrift. Ducati also showed competitive pace, with Marc Márquez, Francesco Bagnaia, and Álex Márquez filling the next positions. The older Márquez brother continued to post leading Sunday qualifying-simulation times despite crashes and illness.
Acosta and KTM framed the progress as tangible but incomplete, and praised Aprilia and Ducati’s race simulations as “awesome.” They warned that rivals’ exceptional simulations make preparation and starting position decisive, and suggested KTM could realistically start the season as the third-best manufacturer. With pre-season testing wrapped at Buriram, teams now turn to the Thai GP next weekend, where the first pole, Tissot Sprint, and race win of the season will be decided.