The roar of engines and the scent of burnt rubber at Buddh International Circuit are now behind us as the Grand Prix of India crowned Marco Bezzecchi the winner, in a race that heightened tensions in the title chase. Ducati reigned supreme with Bezzecchi and Jorge Martín claiming the top spots, while Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo secured third. A significant narrative was Pecco Bagnaia’s loss of vital championship points, narrowing the gap to a mere 13 points between him and the ever-persistent Martín.
Repsol Honda Team, traditionally strong contenders, faced a challenging weekend. Marc Márquez, despite his commendable grit after a crash, finished ninth. Meanwhile, Joan Mir showcased a surge of improvement, finishing fifth and setting an optimistic tone for Honda as they approach their home Grand Prix in Japan.
Now, we turn our sights to Japan. Mobility Resort Motegi awaits the riders, a circuit filled with its own unique challenges and stories. As the championship fight intensifies, the Grand Prix of Japan promises exhilarating racing and an intriguing contest for bettors. The question looms – can Ducati maintain their dominance, or will another team rise to challenge the Italian giants? Stay with us as we dive deep into odds, analyses, and the top picks for the Japanese showdown.
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Schedule and How to Watch the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
The Twin Ring Motegi is abuzz with anticipation, readying itself for a series of riveting MotoGP events from September 29th to October 1st. It’s all leading up to the crowning glory: the Grand Prix of Japan. For a detailed view of the weekend’s events, refer to the official schedule. For enthusiasts who can’t be at the venue in person, be sure to check the official MotoGP website for viewing options. (Note: While live broadcasts might be limited in certain regions, including the US, you can still catch comprehensive race highlights and updates on the website!) If betting is on your agenda, don’t forget to follow the live action and keep an eye on NXTbets for updates on odds and prices.
Best Bets and Picks for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
With a range of betting options available, from Event Winner to Head-to-Head bets, bettors are presented with a wide spectrum of wagering opportunities. Here are our top picks and dark horse selections for this event:
Top Picks and Bets
Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Francesco Bagnaia
+317
$83.40
Jorge Martin
+413
$102.60
Marco Bezzecchi
+525
$125.00
Brad Binder
+999
$219.80
Fabio Quartararo
+1063
$232.60
Leading the odds is Francesco Bagnaia, and rightly so. His consistent season and being the current championship leader place him in good stead, but the recent setback at the Indian GP could play on his mind, especially with teammate Jorge Martin snapping at his heels.
Jorge Martin, with odds of +413, has been a revelation this season. Having inched to within 13 points of Bagnaia’s standings lead with his 2nd place finish at the Indian GP, he showcases momentum and determination, proving that he is not just in the fight but a genuine threat to the championship.
Marco Bezzecchi, fresh from his victory lap in India, comes into Motegi with a shot of confidence. His odds reflect not just his recent win but also a season where he has consistently been a podium threat.
Brad Binder and Fabio Quartararo, both offering longer odds, are wild cards in this race. Binder’s consistency places him fourth in the general standings, while Quartararo, despite being further down the odds list, has shown he can clinch podium finishes. Both riders have the capability to upset the perceived hierarchy and throw in a twist at Motegi.
Outsider Picks
Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
+1438
$307.60
Johann Zarco
+1438
$307.60
Aleix Espargaro
+1718
$363.60
Marc Marquez, with odds of +1438, may not have had his best season, but his reputation as a multi-time world champion precedes him. Motegi’s technical nature, combined with Marquez’s penchant for late braking and aggressive cornering, makes him a formidable contender. Despite his unfortunate slip in India, his ability to swiftly climb back and finish ninth demonstrates the Spaniard’s indomitable spirit and resilience.
Johann Zarco, possessing the same odds as Marquez, has had flashes of brilliance this season. Racing for Ducati, a machine that has been dominant throughout, there’s always the possibility that Zarco finds the sweet spot with the setup and emerges as a surprising frontrunner. His consistent performances and occasional podium finishes give weight to this speculation.
Aleix Espargaro‘s +1718 odds might make him the lengthiest shot of the trio, but the Aprilia rider has been in the form of his life. The bike’s notable performance improvements combined with Espargaro’s vast experience mean he could exploit any weaknesses in the favorites, especially if unpredictable conditions level the playing field. With the nature of MotoGP being as unpredictable as it is, dismissing any of these outsiders would be unwise.
Head-To-Head Picks
For the imminent duel at the Motegi’s Mobility Resort, anticipation is at fever pitch as numerous matchups are set to captivate and enthrall. Weighing in on recent performances, past records at this Japanese circuit, and its distinct challenges, we’ve spotlighted some of the most electrifying head-to-head confrontations poised to unfold at the Grand Prix of Japan:
Matchup
(Favorite in Bold)
Winner Odds
Joan Mir vs. Franco Morbidelli
-104
Fabio Quartararo vs. Marc Marquez
-122
Johann Zarco vs. Marc Marquez
-102
Miguel Oliveira vs. Jack Miller
-106
Maverick Vinales vs. Miguel Oliveira
-115
Jorge Martin vs. Brad Binder
-110
Augusto Fernandez vs. Takaaki Nakagami
-138
Expert Pick for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
After a stellar performance in India, Jorge Martín has showcased not only his race pace but also his ability to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Riding a Ducati, which has been dominant this season, Martín’s continuous closing of the points gap indicates his escalating form. With only a 13-point deficit to the leader, Bagnaia, Martín will be extra motivated to bridge this gap. Given his +413 odds, this pick offers a valuable combination of likelihood and return, making it an enticing choice for the Japan GP.
Where to Bet on the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
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The imminent race at the Mobility Resort Motegi is set to be an adrenaline-charged spectacle for MotoGP fans and bettors alike. Whether you’re supporting the established frontrunners or placing faith in the underdogs, prepare for an exhilarating blend of world-class racing and compelling betting opportunities.
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At Mugello, Manuel González won the Moto2 race (the intermediate class) by 5.327 seconds, while Brian Uriarte claimed victory in a dramatic Moto3 finish. Andrea Iannone also took Race 2 of the Harley‑Davidson Bagger World Cup for NITI Racing.
In Moto2, González controlled the race to take the win. Celestino Vietti recovered from 16th on the grid to finish second after a decisive final‑lap pass, and Dani Holgado completed the podium. Senna Agius was fourth and Filip Salač fifth. Alonso López served a long‑lap penalty for contact with Álex Escrig and finished sixth; Escrig crashed and was classified DNF. Izan Guevara was seventh, Barry Baltus eighth, Collin Veijer ninth and Deniz Öncü tenth. Guevara had shown single‑lap speed earlier by topping Moto2 FP2 with the only 1:48 lap in that session.
The Moto3 race featured a frantic late reshuffle. Brian Uriarte took the win after a chaotic closing sequence, Álvaro Carpe was second and Hakim Danish third. Several riders — including two Aspar teammates — dropped back with late mistakes. Adrián Fernández finished fourth, Joel Esteban fifth and Eddie O’Shea secured a career‑best sixth after briefly running second on the last lap. David Muñoz, Veda Pratama, Joel Kelso and Jesús Ríos rounded out the top 10. Carpe had led Moto3 FP2, underlining his race pace.
The MotoGP weekend mixed blistering speed with tyre and equipment questions. Marco Bezzecchi set a new all‑time lap record at Mugello in qualifying to claim pole and also topped the warm‑up session, but his championship lead was cut to 12 points after he missed the Sprint podium. Fabio Di Giannantonio finished third in the Sprint and had earlier dominated practice despite a technical issue that left him with only one GP26 for qualifying. Jorge Martín recorded a new MotoGP top‑speed mark, and Ducati showed strong pace through Friday running; Francesco Bagnaia warned of heavy soft‑rear degradation. Michelin reported a wet morning that dried to about 44°C, recommended the medium front as a reference and left final rear choices pending. Officials set the Sunday grand prix distance at 23 laps. Marc Márquez — declared fit to continue after returning to action following surgery to remove irritating metalwork — started fourth on the grid. Luca Marini received a three‑place grid drop, moving him to 19th.
Other notes: Andrea Iannone won Race 2 of the Harley‑Davidson Bagger World Cup for NITI Racing at Mugello.
Jorge Lorenzo has signed on as Maverick Vinales’ performance coach in a full-time return to the MotoGP paddock for the 2026 season, a role the three-time world champion called the “perfect job.” Lorenzo said working seven to nine hours a day with Vinales was “not heavy, it’s a pleasure,” and that the position lets him apply roughly 30 years of motorcycle experience without the on-track risk. Since retiring at the end of 2019, he has hosted a MotoGP podcast, raced in the Porsche Supercup, and worked as a DAZN pundit, and he will accompany Vinales to pre-season tests and through the opening rounds of 2026.
Lorenzo has overseen an intensive winter program designed to rebuild Vinales’ form, beginning at the Sepang test and overhauling the rider’s preparation to push him beyond previous limits. The regimen included road-bike testing at Jerez, figure-of-eight drills and dirt riding in Valencia, deliberate work in wet and slippery conditions, and technical refinements such as throttle control and braking technique. Lorenzo shifted Vinales’ routine away from a fitness-only focus toward tougher practice scenarios and more focused technical work to restore race-to-race consistency.
The intervention responds to a difficult 2025 for Vinales, who rehabbed a shoulder injury sustained at the German Grand Prix, struggled for consistency, and finished 18th in the championship despite having 10 Grand Prix wins and 35 career podiums. Lorenzo said he aims to help Vinales regain the “killer” mentality he remembered from the rider’s youth, arguing that Vinales needs greater mental strength but that physical preparation and mindset improvements could turn him into a genuine contender. Lorenzo has publicly bet with Albert Valera, manager of Pedro Acosta, that Vinales will outscore Acosta across 2026. Acosta finished fourth overall with 12 podiums in 2025. Vinales is out of contract at the end of 2026, and Lorenzo warned the next two to three years could be a final window for a championship push as his renewed form will be watched closely amid rumours of KTM factory-seat reshuffles involving Acosta and Alex Marquez.
Yamaha’s new V4 engine suffered unexpected failures at the Sepang pre-season test, forcing a safety-first shutdown of factory running and disrupting the team’s program. An unforeseen fault first appeared on one of Fabio Quartararo’s bikes after his opening-day crash and was followed by a separate engine breakage on Toprak Razgatlioglu’s machine. Yamaha described the problem as something “we never had,” halting Wednesday’s running while engineers investigated, and kept garage doors closed as a precaution.
Engineers initially could not find the cause, but later identified the issue and allowed limited on-track activity, running the V4s with reduced power and rev limits to protect riders and equipment. The team removed long 60-70 lap runs and focused on ergonomics and sprint work. Yamaha intends to bring replacement engines ahead of the next two-day pre-season test at Buriram on February 21-22 to verify fixes and assess whether the imposed limits can be lifted, and warned that ambient temperatures above 30°C may exacerbate the faults.
The engine problems, combined with Quartararo’s crash, intensified scrutiny around the test. Spanish reports that Quartararo has decided not to renew with Yamaha, and instead reached an agreement with Honda, remain unconfirmed. The French rider has publicly denied signing for Honda while acknowledging he is in discussions. Team director Massimo Meregalli said the Sepang interruption was an unexpected delay that pushed some evaluations and contract talks toward the next test rather than changing decisions about Quartararo’s future. Alex Rins, the only factory Yamaha rider present, said the issue appeared under control and still managed his quickest laps of the test.
Ducati split its Le Mans garage by running a new 2026 side fairing on Pecco Bagnaia, Álex Márquez and Fabio Di Giannantonio, while Marc Márquez reverted to GP25-spec 2025 side-fairing elements. Bagnaia said Ducati were experiencing “a pretty difficult time,” but that progress from the Jerez test carried over to Le Mans and he was “much happier” with the new fairing because he could push and control the tires, even as the bike still lacked some turning and stopping performance.
On-track outcomes reflected the split. Bagnaia ran the new fairing and finished third on Friday despite a late crash that produced yellow flags and denied Marc Márquez a final flying lap, leaving Márquez 13th in practice and forced into Q1. Márquez said he feels “considerably slower” on the GP26, lacks front-end feel in fast and left-hand corners and described his Q1 position as “unlucky,” though he reported feeling better through the day. Álex Márquez and Di Giannantonio used the 2026 fairing and progressed directly to Q2, and three Ducati riders filled three of the top four spots on the timesheets. Weather forecasts pointing to a high chance of rain could further shape setup choices before qualifying.
Ducati described the approach as iterative development, testing the new aero on multiple riders while keeping rider-specific setups available. Team manager Davide Tardozzi said “the squad follows each rider’s preferences,” and Ducati noted the split at Le Mans highlighted how rider size, riding style and recent form influence technical direction. Some reports suggested limited units might have led the squad to save the package for Barcelona, and the weekend will provide immediate feedback on whether the 2026 side-fairing delivers the expected turning gains and helps Ducati regain consistent front-running form.
Best Bets: 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan Pre-Event Odds
Schedule and How to Watch the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Best Bets and Picks for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Top Picks and Bets
Outsider Picks
Head-To-Head Picks
Expert Pick for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Where to Bet on the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Related Posts
González controls Moto2 as Vietti charges from 16th
At Mugello, Manuel González won the Moto2 race (the intermediate class) by 5.327 seconds, while Brian Uriarte claimed victory in a dramatic Moto3 finish. Andrea Iannone also took Race 2 of the Harley‑Davidson Bagger World Cup for NITI Racing.
In Moto2, González controlled the race to take the win. Celestino Vietti recovered from 16th on the grid to finish second after a decisive final‑lap pass, and Dani Holgado completed the podium. Senna Agius was fourth and Filip Salač fifth. Alonso López served a long‑lap penalty for contact with Álex Escrig and finished sixth; Escrig crashed and was classified DNF. Izan Guevara was seventh, Barry Baltus eighth, Collin Veijer ninth and Deniz Öncü tenth. Guevara had shown single‑lap speed earlier by topping Moto2 FP2 with the only 1:48 lap in that session.
The Moto3 race featured a frantic late reshuffle. Brian Uriarte took the win after a chaotic closing sequence, Álvaro Carpe was second and Hakim Danish third. Several riders — including two Aspar teammates — dropped back with late mistakes. Adrián Fernández finished fourth, Joel Esteban fifth and Eddie O’Shea secured a career‑best sixth after briefly running second on the last lap. David Muñoz, Veda Pratama, Joel Kelso and Jesús Ríos rounded out the top 10. Carpe had led Moto3 FP2, underlining his race pace.
The MotoGP weekend mixed blistering speed with tyre and equipment questions. Marco Bezzecchi set a new all‑time lap record at Mugello in qualifying to claim pole and also topped the warm‑up session, but his championship lead was cut to 12 points after he missed the Sprint podium. Fabio Di Giannantonio finished third in the Sprint and had earlier dominated practice despite a technical issue that left him with only one GP26 for qualifying. Jorge Martín recorded a new MotoGP top‑speed mark, and Ducati showed strong pace through Friday running; Francesco Bagnaia warned of heavy soft‑rear degradation. Michelin reported a wet morning that dried to about 44°C, recommended the medium front as a reference and left final rear choices pending. Officials set the Sunday grand prix distance at 23 laps. Marc Márquez — declared fit to continue after returning to action following surgery to remove irritating metalwork — started fourth on the grid. Luca Marini received a three‑place grid drop, moving him to 19th.
Other notes: Andrea Iannone won Race 2 of the Harley‑Davidson Bagger World Cup for NITI Racing at Mugello.
Lorenzo Returns as Vinales’ Full-time Coach for 2026 Tests
Jorge Lorenzo has signed on as Maverick Vinales’ performance coach in a full-time return to the MotoGP paddock for the 2026 season, a role the three-time world champion called the “perfect job.” Lorenzo said working seven to nine hours a day with Vinales was “not heavy, it’s a pleasure,” and that the position lets him apply roughly 30 years of motorcycle experience without the on-track risk. Since retiring at the end of 2019, he has hosted a MotoGP podcast, raced in the Porsche Supercup, and worked as a DAZN pundit, and he will accompany Vinales to pre-season tests and through the opening rounds of 2026.
Lorenzo has overseen an intensive winter program designed to rebuild Vinales’ form, beginning at the Sepang test and overhauling the rider’s preparation to push him beyond previous limits. The regimen included road-bike testing at Jerez, figure-of-eight drills and dirt riding in Valencia, deliberate work in wet and slippery conditions, and technical refinements such as throttle control and braking technique. Lorenzo shifted Vinales’ routine away from a fitness-only focus toward tougher practice scenarios and more focused technical work to restore race-to-race consistency.
The intervention responds to a difficult 2025 for Vinales, who rehabbed a shoulder injury sustained at the German Grand Prix, struggled for consistency, and finished 18th in the championship despite having 10 Grand Prix wins and 35 career podiums. Lorenzo said he aims to help Vinales regain the “killer” mentality he remembered from the rider’s youth, arguing that Vinales needs greater mental strength but that physical preparation and mindset improvements could turn him into a genuine contender. Lorenzo has publicly bet with Albert Valera, manager of Pedro Acosta, that Vinales will outscore Acosta across 2026. Acosta finished fourth overall with 12 podiums in 2025. Vinales is out of contract at the end of 2026, and Lorenzo warned the next two to three years could be a final window for a championship push as his renewed form will be watched closely amid rumours of KTM factory-seat reshuffles involving Acosta and Alex Marquez.
Yamaha Finds V4 Fault at Sepang, Limits Power in Testing
Yamaha’s new V4 engine suffered unexpected failures at the Sepang pre-season test, forcing a safety-first shutdown of factory running and disrupting the team’s program. An unforeseen fault first appeared on one of Fabio Quartararo’s bikes after his opening-day crash and was followed by a separate engine breakage on Toprak Razgatlioglu’s machine. Yamaha described the problem as something “we never had,” halting Wednesday’s running while engineers investigated, and kept garage doors closed as a precaution.
Engineers initially could not find the cause, but later identified the issue and allowed limited on-track activity, running the V4s with reduced power and rev limits to protect riders and equipment. The team removed long 60-70 lap runs and focused on ergonomics and sprint work. Yamaha intends to bring replacement engines ahead of the next two-day pre-season test at Buriram on February 21-22 to verify fixes and assess whether the imposed limits can be lifted, and warned that ambient temperatures above 30°C may exacerbate the faults.
The engine problems, combined with Quartararo’s crash, intensified scrutiny around the test. Spanish reports that Quartararo has decided not to renew with Yamaha, and instead reached an agreement with Honda, remain unconfirmed. The French rider has publicly denied signing for Honda while acknowledging he is in discussions. Team director Massimo Meregalli said the Sepang interruption was an unexpected delay that pushed some evaluations and contract talks toward the next test rather than changing decisions about Quartararo’s future. Alex Rins, the only factory Yamaha rider present, said the issue appeared under control and still managed his quickest laps of the test.
Ducati split at Le Mans as 2026 fairing forces rider setups
Ducati split its Le Mans garage by running a new 2026 side fairing on Pecco Bagnaia, Álex Márquez and Fabio Di Giannantonio, while Marc Márquez reverted to GP25-spec 2025 side-fairing elements. Bagnaia said Ducati were experiencing “a pretty difficult time,” but that progress from the Jerez test carried over to Le Mans and he was “much happier” with the new fairing because he could push and control the tires, even as the bike still lacked some turning and stopping performance.
On-track outcomes reflected the split. Bagnaia ran the new fairing and finished third on Friday despite a late crash that produced yellow flags and denied Marc Márquez a final flying lap, leaving Márquez 13th in practice and forced into Q1. Márquez said he feels “considerably slower” on the GP26, lacks front-end feel in fast and left-hand corners and described his Q1 position as “unlucky,” though he reported feeling better through the day. Álex Márquez and Di Giannantonio used the 2026 fairing and progressed directly to Q2, and three Ducati riders filled three of the top four spots on the timesheets. Weather forecasts pointing to a high chance of rain could further shape setup choices before qualifying.
Ducati described the approach as iterative development, testing the new aero on multiple riders while keeping rider-specific setups available. Team manager Davide Tardozzi said “the squad follows each rider’s preferences,” and Ducati noted the split at Le Mans highlighted how rider size, riding style and recent form influence technical direction. Some reports suggested limited units might have led the squad to save the package for Barcelona, and the weekend will provide immediate feedback on whether the 2026 side-fairing delivers the expected turning gains and helps Ducati regain consistent front-running form.