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Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Fox Raceway National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Fox Raceway National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The 2024 AMA Pro Motocross Championship is set to begin just days after the conclusion of the Monster Energy AMA Supercross season. In the Supercross finale, Jett Lawrence clinched his first 450SX title, while RJ Hampshire and Tom Vialle claimed the 250SX West and East crowns, respectively. Now, the focus shifts to the great outdoors, where riders will face new challenges and reignite old rivalries.

The season opener takes place at the renowned Fox Raceway in Pala, California. As the competitors transition from the tight confines of stadiums to the sprawling natural terrain, they’ll need to adapt quickly to the demands of outdoor racing. With a deep field of talented riders all vying for victory, the Fox Raceway National promises to be an intense and closely contested battle. In this article, we’ll analyze the top contenders, potential outsiders, and key head-to-head matchups that could shape the narrative of this opening round and set the tone for the rest of the 2024 Pro Motocross season.

Bets for the Fox Raceway National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks.

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Schedule and How to Watch the Fox Raceway National

The Fox Raceway National on Saturday, May 25, 2024, will feature practice sessions for the 450MX class starting at 8:50 am, with timed practices later in the morning. The first 450MX Moto begins at 2:15 pm, followed by podium interviews. The second 450MX Moto starts at 4:45 pm, concluding with the winners’ circle at 5:20 pm.Every second of the final can be seen live on Peacock.

For a full breakdown of the event schedule, check out the official event page. For those interested in betting, keep your eye on NXTbets for real-time odds and pricing updates throughout the season.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for the Fox Raceway National

Top Picks and Bets

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-307

$26.51

Chase Sexton

+687

$157.40

Dylan Ferrandis

+2930

$606.00

All eyes will be on the reigning king of motocross, Jett Lawrence, as he looks to continue his reign of dominance in the great outdoors. Fresh off a historic rookie 450SX championship, where he joined the elite company of Jeremy McGrath and Ryan Dungey as the only riders to claim the premier class title in their first attempt, Lawrence is the undisputed favorite with -307 odds. The prodigious Australian’s perfect 2023 Pro Motocross campaign and six-race win streak at Fox Raceway make him the clear benchmark for the field. With his unparalleled combination of speed, technique, and race craft, the 20-year-old phenom seems poised to rewrite the record books and cement his status as one of the all-time greats. As he sets his sights on a second consecutive outdoor title, he’s easily the safest bet for a win at the season opener.

But don’t count out Chase Sexton, the 2023 450SX champion, who comes into the season opener with +687 odds and a head of steam. After a turbulent start to the 2024 Supercross season, Sexton caught fire in the final leg of the championship, racking up multiple podiums and a dominant win at the season finale in Salt Lake City. Despite finishing 3rd overall behind Cooper Webb and Jett Lawrence, Sexton’s late-season surge proved he’s still one of the most formidable forces in the sport. The Honda HRC rider’s raw speed and unrelenting work ethic make him a perennial threat, and he’ll be looking to carry that momentum into the outdoor season and challenge Lawrence for supremacy.

Rounding out the top contenders is Dylan Ferrandis, the 2021 450MX champion, with +2930 odds. The Frenchman had a stellar 2023 Pro Motocross season, finishing runner-up in the championship. However, he struggled to find his footing in the 2024 Supercross season, ending up 12th overall. Despite the recent setback, Ferrandis’ smooth, calculated style is perfectly suited to the flowing hills of Pala. He’ll be looking to recapture the magic that carried him to the title in 2021 and prove that his 2023 outdoor performance was no fluke. With a fresh start and a return to his preferred terrain, Ferrandis is determined to remind everyone why he’s one of the most formidable forces in motocross.

Outsider Picks

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Hunter Lawrence

+3025

$625.00

Aaron Plessinger

+3900

$800.00

Ty Masterpool

+4900

$1000.00

While the favorites may steal the headlines, there’s a hungry pack of outsiders ready to shake things up. Leading the charge is Hunter Lawrence, Jett’s older brother, with +3025 odds. After a breakout 250MX season in 2022 and an impressive rookie 450SX campaign, Hunter is poised to make some serious noise in the premier class outdoors. With a lethal combination of speed, grit, and determination, the elder Lawrence could be the surprise package that upends the established order..

Another outsider to keep an eye on is the always-electrifying Aaron Plessinger. The 2018 250MX champion had an impressive 2023 Pro Motocross season, claiming 3rd place overall and proving he’s still a force to be reckoned with in the outdoor tour. He carried that momentum into the 2024 Supercross season, where he finished 11th overall with seven top-five finishes and a thrilling victory in San Diego. While his Supercross results may not have been as consistent as he’d hoped, Plessinger’s outdoor prowess is undeniable. With his confidence high and his skills sharper than ever, the Ohio native is poised for a breakout season in the 2024 Pro Motocross championship. Don’t be surprised if Plessinger’s at or on top of the podium on a regular basis this summer.

Last but not least, we have the sophomore sensation Ty Masterpool. After a promising rookie 450MX campaign in 2023, where he finished 7th overall, and a solid 24th place finish in the stacked 2024 450SX field, Masterpool enters the season with +4900 odds and a point to prove. The young gun’s aggressive style and fearless approach have already earned him a reputation as a rising star. With a year of experience under his belt, don’t be surprised if Masterpool takes a major step forward and becomes a consistent podium threat.

Head-To-Head Picks

Matchup

Rider

Moneyline

Payout per $20

1

Dylan Ferrandis
Aaron Plessinger

-181

$31.05

+135

$47.00

2

Dylan Ferrandis
Hunter Lawrence

-121

$36.53

-110

$38.18

3

Hunter Lawrence
Aaron Plessinger

-172

$31.63

+128

$45.60

4

Ty Masterpool
Justin Barcia

-116

$37.24

-114

$37.54

The head-to-head matchups at Fox Raceway promise to be every bit as captivating as the overall battle for victory. The clash between Dylan Ferrandis and Aaron Plessinger pits two of the most stylish and aggressive riders against each other, while the duel between Ferrandis and Hunter Lawrence could be a preview of a season-long fight for the podium. And don’t sleep on the battle between Ty Masterpool and Justin Barcia – the sophomore sensation and the wily veteran are sure to bring the fireworks.

Expert Pick for the Fox Raceway National

When it comes to picking a winner for the Fox Raceway National, it’s hard to bet against the defending champ, Jett Lawrence. The kid is on a historic run, and he’s shown time and again that he’s in a class of his own. With his blistering speed, impeccable technique, and unshakeable confidence, Lawrence is the clear favorite to kick off his title defense with a statement win. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, expect the #1 plate to be front and center when the checkered flag flies.

2024 AMA Pro Motocross Championship Futures

Rider

Champion Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-604

$23.31

Chase Sexton

+2603

$540.60

Hunter Lawrence

+3348

$689.60

Eli Tomac

+3746

$769.20

Cooper Webb

+5163

$1052.60

The 2024 AMA Pro Motocross Championship futures betting odds paint a picture of a two-rider showdown, with defending champion Jett Lawrence the heavy favorite at -604 and his closest competitor, Chase Sexton, at +2603. Lawrence’s dominance in 2023 and his recent 450SX title in his rookie year make him the man to beat, but Sexton’s strong finish to the Supercross season suggests he’s hitting his stride at the perfect time and could mount a serious challenge to Lawrence’s throne.

However, the absence of perennial title contenders Eli Tomac and Cooper Webb, both sidelined with thumb injuries for the first leg of the season, has significantly impacted the championship landscape. Their injuries have pushed their odds to +3746 and +5163, respectively, reflecting the challenges they’ll face in making up ground once they return to action.

In their absence, Hunter Lawrence, with odds of +3348, emerges as the most likely candidate to challenge the top two and shake up the title fight. However, he’ll need to consistently match the pace set by his younger brother and Sexton to have a realistic shot at the championship.

As the 2024 AMA Pro Motocross season gets underway, the focus will be on the intense battle between Jett Lawrence and Chase Sexton, while the rest of the field, including a returning Tomac and Webb, will be looking to defy the odds and make their mark on this highly competitive championship.

Where to Bet on the Fox Raceway National

Bets for the Fox Raceway National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide

As the 2024 Pro Motocross season roars to life at Fox Raceway, one thing is certain – we’re in for one hell of a ride. With a stacked field of contenders, an electric atmosphere, and the promise of bar-to-bar battles from start to finish, this season opener is shaping up to be an instant classic. So grab your popcorn, settle in, and get ready to witness the greatest motocross riders on the planet lay it all on the line in pursuit of glory. The games are about to begin, and you won’t want to miss a single second of the action!

 

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