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Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Thunder Valley National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Thunder Valley National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

In a jaw-dropping turn of events at the Hangtown Motocross Classic, Chase Sexton not only snapped Jett Lawrence’s incredible 24-moto winning streak but also mounted an unforgettable come-from-behind charge in Moto 2 to secure a perfect 1-1 victory. Sexton’s teammate, Aaron Plessinger, led all but the final lap of the second moto before succumbing to Sexton’s relentless pursuit, while Jett Lawrence, still reeling from a brutal crash in Moto 1, could only muster a 12th overall finish.

As the series heads to the picturesque Thunder Valley MX Park in Lakewood, Colorado, for Round 3, the excitement is palpable. With Sexton now leading the championship and a wounded Lawrence eager to reassert his dominance, the stage is set for an epic showdown in the Mile High City. Throw in a resurgent Plessinger, an ever-consistent Hunter Lawrence, and a host of hungry contenders, and you’ve got a recipe for some of the most intense racing of the season. Let’s dive into the key storylines, top picks, and juicy head-to-head matchups that will define this critical juncture in the 2024 Pro Motocross campaign.

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Schedule and How to Watch the Thunder Valley National

The third stop of the 2024 AMA Pro Motocross Championship takes us to the breathtaking Thunder Valley MX Park in Lakewood, Colorado, just outside Denver. Nestled at an elevation of 6,108 feet, this one-of-a-kind venue poses unique challenges for both riders and machines. The thin air saps power from engines and pushes athletes to their limits, making for a true test of endurance and technique. The racing begins with qualifying sessions June 8th at 11:45 AM MT, followed by the first motos at 1:15 PM MT and second motos at 3:15 PM MT.

Every second of the event can be seen live on Peacock. For a full breakdown of the event schedule, check out the official event page. For those interested in betting, keep your eye on NXTbets for real-time odds and pricing updates throughout the season. Also, be sure to check out James Stewart’s The Inside Line betting tips podcast for strategic betting insights and dark horse opportunities on Thunder Valley National.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for the Thunder Valley National

Top Picks and Bets

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Podium Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-452

$24.42

-2464

$20.81

Chase Sexton

+595

$139.00

-197

$30.15

Hunter Lawrence

+1916

$403.20

+165

$53.00

Jett Lawrence (-452 for the win, -2464 for the podium) enters Thunder Valley with a singular focus: redemption. The defending champion’s streak-ending crash at Hangtown was a rare misstep in an otherwise dominant campaign, and he’ll be determined to prove that it was nothing more than a minor setback. Lawrence’s ability to bounce back from adversity is well-documented, and his raw speed and technical prowess make him a formidable force on any track. If he’s fully recovered from his leg injury and dialed in on bike setup, Jett will be the one to watch in the Mile High City as he looks to reassert his dominance and reclaim the red plate.

Hot on Lawrence’s heels is Chase Sexton (+595 for the win, -197 for the podium), who’s riding a wave of confidence after his stunning come-from-behind victory at Hangtown. Sexton’s relentless pace and unwavering determination were on full display in California, and he’ll be looking to carry that momentum into Thunder Valley. The Red Bull Factory KTM 450 rider has a strong track record at this venue, including a strong 450MX showing in 2022 where he finished 3rd, and his fitness and technical skills are perfectly suited to the challenges of racing at altitude. With his confidence at an all-time high and his bike dialed in, Sexton may be poised to repeat his Hangtown heroics and put even more distance between himself and his rivals in the points race.

Rounding out the top picks is Hunter Lawrence (+1916 for the win, +165 for the podium), who’s been absolutely stellar in his rookie 450 Class campaign. The elder Lawrence brother has a knack for flying under the radar, but his back-to-back second-place finishes at Fox Raceway and Hangtown are a testament to his smooth, calculated riding style and unflappable consistency. While he may not generate the same level of hype as his younger sibling or the flashy Sexton, Hunter’s ability to adapt to any track or condition makes him a serious dark horse candidate for a breakthrough victory.

Outsider Picks

Rider

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Podium Odds

Payout on $20

Aaron Plessinger

+6269

$1273.80

+363

$92.60

Dylan Ferrandis

+8672

$1754.40

+403

$100.60

Jason Anderson

+8672

$1754.40

+1329

$285.80

 

Among the outsiders, Aaron Plessinger stands out as a rider on the cusp of a breakthrough. The Ohio native’s infectious personality and flamboyant riding style have made him a fan favorite, but it’s his raw speed and competitive edge that make him a legitimate podium contender every time he hits the track. Plessinger’s runner-up finish at Thunder Valley in 2023 is a testament to his ability to tame the challenging track and withstand the rigors of racing at altitude. His odds offer great value on a relatively safe podium bet.

Dylan Ferrandis, the wily Frenchman, is another rider who cannot be overlooked. The former 250 Class champion’s transition to the premier division hasn’t been without its bumps, but his 2023 runner-up finish in the 450 Class is proof positive of his talent and tenacity. Ferrandis’ smooth, calculated style and unrelenting consistency make him a constant threat, and his experience racing in the thin air of Colorado could give him a valuable edge.

Finally, there’s the wild card that is Jason Anderson. The New Mexico native’s all-or-nothing approach and lightning-fast reflexes make him one of the most thrilling riders to watch, but they also make him frustratingly unpredictable. On his best days, Anderson is virtually unbeatable, a whirling dervish of speed and aggression that leaves his competitors in the dust. But his high-risk, high-reward style also leaves him vulnerable to costly mistakes and spectacular crashes. If Anderson can find the right balance between raw speed and calculated restraint, a podium finish at Thunder Valley is well within his grasp.

Expert Pick for the Thunder Valley National

After a disappointing day at Hangtown, it’s hard not to pick Jett Lawrence to come back with a vengeance at Thunder Valley. The defending champion has a history of bouncing back from adversity, and he’ll be extra motivated to prove that his streak-ending crash was just a fluke. If Lawrence is healthy and dialed in, his combination of raw speed, technical prowess, and unshakeable confidence is simply unmatched. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, expect to see the #1 Honda back on top of the box in Colorado, sending a clear message that the road to the 450 Class title still runs through him.

Head-To-Head Picks

Matchup

Rider

Moneyline

Payout per $20

1

Aaron Plessinger
Dylan Ferrandis

-137

$34.60

+137

$47.40

2

Chase Sexton
Hunter Lawrence

-289

$26.92

+289

$77.80

3

Jason Anderson
Justin Cooper

-111

$38.02

+111

$42.20

4

Christian Craig
Justin Barcia

-109

$38.35

+109

$41.80

Beyond the overall podium fight, there are some juicy head-to-head matchups to keep an eye on at Thunder Valley. The clash between Aaron Plessinger and Dylan Ferrandis (-137/+137) pits two of the most aggressive riders on the circuit against each other, with Plessinger holding the slight edge based on recent form. The duel between Chase Sexton and Hunter Lawrence (-289/+289) could be a preview of the championship battle to come, with Sexton looking to build on his Hangtown momentum and Lawrence aiming to close the gap. And don’t sleep on the always-entertaining battle between Jason Anderson and the resurgent Justin Cooper (-111/+111), as both riders look to rebound from disappointing finishes in California.

2024 AMA Pro Motocross Championship Futures

Rider

Champion Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-2132

$20.94

Chase Sexton

+1325

$285.00

Hunter Lawrence

+4425

$905.00

Eli Tomac

+6657

$1351.40

Cooper Webb

+8829

$1785.80

Jett Lawrence (-2132) remains the heavy favorite to capture the 450 Class crown. While his odds have lengthened slightly, the defending champ’s raw speed and proven track record are simply too much to ignore. Chase Sexton (+1325) saw his stock rise significantly after his stunning victory in California, but he’ll need to prove he can consistently beat Lawrence head-to-head to be considered a true title threat. Hunter Lawrence (+4425), Eli Tomac (+6657), and Cooper Webb (+8829) all saw their odds drift after missing the podium at Hangtown, but with 20 motos still to be run, there’s plenty of time for the championship picture to change. One thing’s for sure: with Lawrence looking for redemption and Sexton riding a wave of momentum, the battle for the 450 Class crown is shaping up to be one for the ages.

Where to Bet on the Thunder Valley National

Bets for the Thunder Valley National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide

As the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship heads to the Mile High City for Round 3, the excitement and anticipation are reaching a fever pitch. With a rejuvenated Chase Sexton leading the charge, a wounded Jett Lawrence looking for redemption, and a host of hungry contenders eager to shake up the standings, the Thunder Valley National promises to be a pivotal moment in the 2024 title chase. As always, stay tuned for all the latest news, analysis, and insider insights throughout the weekend and beyond.

 

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