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Best Bets: 2024 WSL Surf City El Salvador Pro Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2024 WSL Surf City El Salvador Pro Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The 2024 World Surf League Championship Tour is heating up as the world’s best surfers prepare to do battle at Punta Roca for the Surf City El Salvador Pro presented by Corona. Coming off an electric showdown at the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro, where local wildcard Vahine Fierro made history by becoming the first Tahitian to win the event and Italo Ferreira reclaimed his mojo with a dominant performance, anticipation is sky high for the seventh stop of the season.

With only three events remaining before the one-day, winner-take-all WSL Finals, the stakes are higher than ever. The El Salvador Pro offers a crucial opportunity for surfers to solidify their spot in the top 5, or make a late-season surge up the leaderboard. Fans and bettors alike are eagerly awaiting the clash of the WSL’s top talents in both the men’s and women’s divisions. So let’s dive into an in-depth preview and betting analysis for what promises to be an unforgettable showdown in Central America.

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Schedule and How to Watch the 2024 WSL Tahiti Pro

The Surf City El Salvador Pro window runs June 6-15, with the opening call coming during the Dawn Patrol on June 6 at 7:00 AM local time. This pivotal Championship Tour event will take place at the famed Punta Roca break in La Libertad, El Salvador. Stay tuned for updates as the event approaches. To catch every thrilling moment live, simply head over to the WSL official site.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for 2024 El Salvador Pro – Men’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Men’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Jack Robinson

+396

$99.20

John John Florence

+621

$144.20

Griffin Colapinto

+740

$168.00

If there’s been a knock on Jack Robinson (+396) this season, it’s been his boom-or-bust tendencies. The West Oz prodigy has dazzled at times, claiming two statement-making victories. But he’s also suffered a few early exits, his 17th place finish in Tahiti marking his third Round of 16 loss on the season. Still, it’s impossible to ignore Robinson’s potential at a wave like Punta Roca. His powerful rail game and impeccable frontside technique seem tailor-made for the long, spinning walls on offer, and when he’s on, few can match his sheer explosiveness. Plus, Robinson will be keen to reassert himself in the title conversation and make up ground on rankings leader John John Florence, making him a strong pick for the top spot in El Salvador.

Speaking of which, John John Florence (+621) arrives in El Salvador ranked #1 in the world and in stellar form. The 31-year-old has rebounded from an injury-plagued 2022 season with a vengeance, reaching three finals in the first six events, including a runner-up finish in Tahiti that propelled him to the top of the standings. Florence’s dynamic surfing style, blending technical tube-riding with progressive aerials, has been a perfect fit for the varied conditions on tour this year. And while he’s never made a final at the El Salvador Pro, his prowess at righthand pointbreaks is undeniable. Heading into the back half of the season, Florence appears laser-focused on making a serious run at a third World Title. With his wealth of experience, competitive drive, and jaw-dropping talent, betting against him is getting increasingly tough to justify.

Last among the favorites, Griffin Colapinto (+740) will be looking to rebound after a surprising elimination at the hands of wildcard Mihimana Braye in Tahiti, a result that cost him his lead in the standings. With a sizable margin now separating him and Florence, expect Colapinto to come out firing at the point break of El Salvador as he looks to take back the yellow jersey. If the waves are on the punchier side at Punta Roca, Colapinto’s electric air game and relentless motor could be the ultimate difference-makers. For bettors who back him at +740, a successful Colapinto campaign would certainly pay out nicely.

Outsider Picks – Men’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Ethan Ewing

+838

$187.60

Italo Ferreira

+917

$203.40

Cole Houshmand

+1712

$362.40

Current world No. 4 Ethan Ewing (+838) has been knocking on the door of his first win this season with a string of impressive performances. Though a string of Round of 16 exits might cause some hesitation, the Australian’s silky smooth style and impeccable wave selection should serve him well in El Salvador’s shifting peaks, making him a tempting dark horse pick at nearly 8-to-1 odds. If Ewing can find his groove early, he has the talent to make a deep run.

Italo Ferreira (+917) comes into El Salvador brimming with confidence after a dominant victory in Tahiti. The 2019 world champion’s high-flying acrobatics and raw power could prove to be a lethal combination at the point break of Punta Roca. With his yellow jersey campaign back on track and a favorable forecast on the horizon, Ferreira looms as a dangerous sleeper capable of outperforming his generous odds.

Rookie sensation Cole Houshmand (+1712) turned heads with a scintillating performance in Tahiti, earning the second highest heat total in the Elimination Round before falling to eventual winner Ferreira. The Californian’s jaw-dropping turn game and fearless barrel-riding make him an intriguing longshot prospect in El Salvador. While an outright win might be a longshot, don’t be surprised to see Houshmand make some noise and prove he belongs among the world’s best. A small wager on the rookie might go a long way if he can pull off an upset.

Expert Pick for El Salvador Pro – Men’s Division

With his current form, veteran savvy and reputation in waves of consequence, we’re backing John John Florence to go all the way in El Salvador. John’s looked unstoppable at times this season, with his Tahiti runner-up proving he’s a big game player. From his specialty tube-riding to his gravity-defying aerial attack, Florence possesses all the weapons needed to handle Punta Roca. Expect John to be there when the whips are cracking.

Head-to-Head Picks – Men’s Division

Matchup

Surfers

Moneyline

Payout on $20

1

Jack Robinson 

-173

$31.56

John John Florence 

+129

$45.80

2

Jack Robinson 

-205

$29.76

Griffin Colapinto 

+151

$50.20

3

Jack Robinson 

-233

$28.58

Ethan Ewing 

+170

$54.00

4

Jack Robinson 

-256

$27.81

Italo Ferreira 

+185

$57.00

5

John John Florence 

-135

$34.81

Griffin Colapinto 

+102

$40.40

6

John John Florence 

-153

$33.07

Ethan Ewing 

+115

$43.00

7

John John Florence 

-167

$31.98

Italo Ferreira 

+125

$45.00

8

Griffin Colapinto 

-129

$35.50

Ethan Ewing 

-103

$39.42

9

Griffin Colapinto 

-141

$34.18

Italo Ferreira 

+107

$41.40

10

Ethan Ewing 

-125

$36.00

Italo Ferreira 

-106

$38.87

Opening Round Heats – Men’s Division

Heat

Surfers

Moneyline

Payout on $20

1

Ethan Ewing

-135

$34.81

Matthew McGillivray

+264

$72.80

Rio Waida

+301

$80.20

2

Jack Robinson

-160

$32.50

Crosby Colapinto

+296

$79.20

Connor O’Leary

+329

$85.80

3

Griffin Colapinto

+106

$41.20

Joao Chianca

+196

$59.20

Ryan Callinan

+256

$71.20

4

John John Florence

-161

$32.42

Liam O’Brien

+201

$60.20

Bryan Perez

+570

$134.00

5

Italo Ferreira

+106

$41.20

Gabriel Medina

+172

$54.40

Leonardo Fioravanti

+300

$80.00

6

Jordy Smith

-111

$38.02

Ramzi Boukhiam

+244

$68.80

Seth Moniz

+252

$70.40

7

Kanoa Igarashi

-102

$39.61

Jake Marshall

+185

$57.00

Imaikalani deVault

+301

$80.20

8

Cole Houshmand

+129

$45.80

Barron Mamiya

+185

$57.00

Yago Dora

+218

$63.60

2024 WSL Futures Update – Men’s Division

Surfer

Champion

Payout on $20

Top 5

Payout on $20

Jack Robinson

+109

$41.80

-19,900

$20.10

Griffin Colapinto

+260

$72.00

-19,900

$20.10

John John Florence

+341

$88.20

-3717

$20.54

Ethan Ewing

+953

$210.60

-341

$25.87

Italo Ferreira

+7652

$1550.40

+551

$130.20


Jack Robinson maintains his position as the +109 favorite, reflecting confidence in his ability to consistently contend despite some minor lapses. Griffin Colapinto‘s odds have drifted to +260 after some recent struggles, but his immense talent keeps him squarely in the championship picture.


The biggest adjustment comes with John John Florence climbing to +341 off his Tahiti performance, signaling our growing optimism in his comeback campaign sustaining its momentum. Italo Ferreira‘s distant +7652 odds stem from his sluggish start, though his Tahiti triumph proves he can never be fully discounted in the title chase.

Best Bets and Picks for the 2024 El Salvador Pro – Women’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Women’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Caroline Marks

+332

$86.40

Caitlin Simmers

+431

$106.20

Molly Picklum

+486

$117.20

Reigning El Salvador Pro champion Caroline Marks (+332) leads the betting odds heading into this year’s event. The Floridian’s dynamic backhand and progressive approach are tailor-made for Punta Roca’s fun-sized waves, and she’ll be hungry to defend her title and climb back into the championship conversation. With a solid 3rd place finish in Tahiti under her belt, Marks looks primed to continue her El Salvador success and justify her favorite status.

Current world No. 2 Caitlin Simmers (+431) has been a revelation in her sophomore CT season. The teenage phenom’s explosive surfing and unflappable demeanor have already earned her wins at Bells and Pipe, and she’ll be looking to keep the momentum rolling in El Salvador. Simmers’ electric frontside attack should be on full display in the rippable rights of Punta Roca, making her a strong contender to claim her third win of the season.

Powerful Australian Molly Picklum (+486) had cooled off slightly after a red-hot start to the 2024 season that saw her reach the finals at both Pipe and Sunset, claiming a stellar victory in the latter. But her back-to-back 5th place in the last two events indicate a return to form is underway, and her aggressive approach and spontaneous aerial flair could pay big dividends in El Salvador. If Picklum can rediscover the magic that propelled her to the top of the rankings early on, she has the talent to outperform her tempting odds.

Outsider Picks – Women’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Brisa Hennessy

+502

$120.40

Sawyer Lindblad

+691

$158.20

Bettylou Sakura Johnson

+1003

$220.60

Fresh off a runner-up finish in Tahiti, Brisa Hennessy (+502) is riding a wave of momentum into El Salvador. The Costa Rican has been a model of consistency in 2024, never finishing lower than 3rd place (aside from an injury-stricken Portugal affair) and has been showcasing her much-improved backhand technique. Currently wearing the yellow jersey, Hennessy will be looking to solidify her spot atop the rankings with another strong result. If she can handle the pressure of being the front-runner, she looms as a serious threat to post a breakthrough win at Punta Roca.

2024 rookie standout Sawyer Lindblad (+691) will be looking to bounce back after a loss in the finals at Tahiti. The talented Californian has already proven she can hang with the world’s best, highlighted by her stunning semifinal run at Margaret River, and her explosive backhand and progressive aerial game should be well-suited to the wedgy peaks on offer in El Salvador. If Lindblad can recapture the magic that had her in the Final 5 conversation earlier this season, she has the potential to outperform her dark horse odds.

Rounding out the women’s longshot picks is Hawaiian prodigy Bettylou Sakura Johnson (+1003). The explosive regular-footer has already put the surfing world on notice with a string of jaw-dropping performances, including a runner-up finish at Sunset and semifinal appearance at the Lexus Pipe Pro to start the season. While a 9th place finish in Tahiti might not jump off the page, BSJ’s powerful front hand style and go-for-broke flair could spell trouble for the rest of the field if she finds her rhythm on the fun-sized walls of Punta Roca.

Expert Pick for the 2024 El Salvador Pro – Women’s Division

For the women’s expert pick, the smart money rides with Caroline Marks. Marks thrives in powerful beach breaks like El Salvador, having placed 3rd in 2022 before breaking through for the win last year. At +332, she represents a balanced blend of upside and reliability for bettors. Unfazed by heavy conditions, Marks’ sturdy style and veteran poise make her a smart value play to get the job done again.

Head-to-Head Picks – Women’s Division

Matchup

Surfers

Moneyline

Payout on $20

1

Caroline Marks 

-165

$32.12

Brisa Hennessy 

+123

$44.60

2

Caroline Marks 

-143

$33.99

Caitlin Simmers 

+107

$41.40

3

Caitlin Simmers 

-128

$35.63

Molly Picklum 

-104

$39.23

4

Caitlin Simmers 

-131

$35.27

Brisa Hennessy 

-101

$39.80

5

Molly Picklum 

-118

$36.95

Brisa Hennessy 

-113

$37.70

6

Caroline Marks 

-160

$32.50

Molly Picklum 

+120

$44.00

Opening Round Heats – Women’s Division

Heat

Surfers

Moneyline

Payout on $20

1

Caroline Marks

-117

$37.09

Johanne Defay

+244

$68.80

Tyler Wright

+267

$73.40

2

Bettylou Sakura Johnson

+108

$41.60

Brisa Hennessy

+111

$42.20

Leilani McGonagle

+567

$133.40

3

Caitlin Simmers

-135

$34.81

Lakey Peterson

+172

$54.40

Tatiana Weston-Webb

+536

$127.20

4

Sawyer Lindblad

-106

$38.87

Molly Picklum

+181

$56.20

Gabriela Bryan

+330

$86.00

2024 WSL Futures Update – Women’s Division

Surfer

Champion

Payout on $20

Top 5

Payout on $20

Caitlin Simmers

+193

$58.60

-19,900

$20.10

Brisa Hennessy

+298

$79.60

-477

$24.19

Caroline Marks

+441

$108.20

-202

$29.90

Molly Picklum

+541

$128.20

-492

$24.07

Johanne Defay

+768

$173.60

-741

$22.70


While Caitlin Simmers maintains her position as the narrow favorite, the biggest mover in the women’s championship futures has been the surging Brisa Hennessy. Her recent hot streak, highlighted by that runner-up in the heavy Tahiti waves, has oddsmakers adjusting her championship odds significantly closer to the top.


Caroline Marks has also seen her number shorten based on her consistency, though questions remain about her ability to win out in the most challenging conditions. Meanwhile, Molly Picklum and Johanne Defay are holding steady, but could become real value plays if they’re able to sustain that breakout potential throughout the year’s remaining events.

Where to Bet on the Surf City El Salvador Pro 2024

If you’re looking to get in on the action, NXTbets is here to elevate your betting experience with exclusive offers from our partnered sportsbooks. Dive into our detailed analyses and expert tips with the WSL Championship Tour Betting Guide, tailored to arm you with all the insights needed for informed betting decisions.

With its incredible density of high-quality waves and the World Title pressure rising, the El Salvador Pro is shaping up to be a pivotal event in the 2024 Championship Tour. Opportunities for reshuffling the rankings abound, and the door is open for someone to seize frontrunner status with a statement-making result. The surfing world will be watching to see who answers the call.

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