Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Unadilla National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Schedule and How to Watch the Unadilla National

The rolling hills of Unadilla MX Park play host to Round 9 of the 2024 Pro Motocross season this Saturday, August 10th. On-track action kicks off with live qualifying coverage at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by opening ceremonies at 12:30 p.m. ET. The first 450MX moto goes off at 2:00 p.m. ET, with the second moto set for 4:30 p.m. ET.

Every second of the event can be seen live on Peacock. For a full breakdown of the event schedule, check out the official event page. For those interested in betting, keep your eye on NXTbets for real-time odds and pricing updates throughout the season.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for the Unadilla National

Top Picks and Bets

At this point, it’s almost impossible to bet against Chase Sexton. The 24-year-old KTM ace has been on an absolute tear, reeling off seven straight moto wins to seize full control of the championship. Sexton’s blend of precision, stamina, and killer instinct has him operating on a different level, routinely overcoming early adversity with forceful comebacks and pinpoint late-race charges. His 28-point cushion affords a welcome margin for error, but Sexton shows no signs of letting off the throttle anytime soon. Even with a staggering -232 moneyline, he remains the unequivocal favorite at Unadilla.

That said, if there’s one rider with the tools to slow Sexton’s romp to the title, it’s Hunter Lawrence. The ever-consistent Aussie has been a fixture on the overall podium, using elite starts and unflappable racecraft to minimize the damage from Sexton’s onslaught. While his ultimate pace remains a tick off the frontrunners, Lawrence has the experience and mental toughness to capitalize if things go sideways for Sexton. His +505 odds are as tempting as they are daunting – if Lawrence can finally put all the pieces together for a full 60 minutes, the #96 is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

And then there’s Justin Cooper, the clear-cut third option among the top picks at +1322 odds. The Yamaha pilot has the speed to run at the front on any given Saturday, but inconsistency and a lack of killer instinct have kept him playing third fiddle to the two alphas. Cooper has a penchant for strong starts but struggles to maintain that blistering pace for the duration, as evidenced by his mid-moto fades at Washougal. With seven top-five moto finishes on the year, Cooper’s ceiling is apparent – now it’s about delivering on that tantalizing potential for a full afternoon. Don’t sleep on the #32 for a confidence-boosting podium or even a shock moto win if the cards fall his way.

Outsider Picks

Though Aaron Plessinger was denied his maiden moto win at Washougal, his impressive runner-up showing confirmed his status as a legitimate week-in, week-out podium threat. The laidback KTM rider has been a revelation in the dog days of summer, notching two podiums in the last three races on the strength of excellent starts and newfound moto IQ. Plessinger is riding with an air of confidence seldom seen in his 450MX career, and his rock-solid +1487 odds make him a sneaky value pick if he can turn that self-belief into a statement victory before season’s end.

A new (and yet familiar) name joins the outsider picks this week: Ken Roczen. The former world champion is slated to make his first Pro Motocross start of the season after an extended hiatus, and his undeniable talent makes him a wild card contender whenever he’s behind the gate. Roczen has taken his time easing back into action after struggling with health issues in recent years, but his raw speed and racecraft could see him spring a surprise at Unadilla. It’s worth keeping an eye on the #94 and his intriguing +1558 moneyline – if Roczen finds his groove early, the German veteran could absolutely shake up the established pecking order.

A rider in desperate need of a rebound is Justin Barcia, who endured a frustrating last outing at Southwick National with a lackluster 6-11 showing for 7th overall. The GAGGAS Factory Racing rider’s 2024 season has been marred by uncharacteristic mistakes and a lack of front-running speed, as reflected in his ballooning +3301 odds. That said, Barcia is renowned for his gritty, unpredictable style and never-say-die attitude – and though a moto win appears increasingly unlikely, a top-five resurgence at Unadilla is well within the realm of possibility. Barcia may be mired in a slump, but he’s too proud and too talented to be counted out completely.

Expert Pick for the Unadilla National

With all due respect to the field, this is Chase Sexton‘s world – the rest of the riders are just living in it. The championship leader has been simply untouchable during this torrid summer stretch, routinely putting on riding clinics at the head of the pack. Sexton’s unshakable self-belief and preternatural racecraft have him performing on an entirely different plane, elevating him from mere mortal to motocross demigod. Barring an act of divine intervention or outright catastrophe, it’s almost impossible to envision a scenario where Sexton doesn’t roll into Unadilla and continue his rampage towards a thoroughly deserved first premier class outdoor title. We expect #23 to etch another chapter in his burgeoning legend on Saturday.

Head-to-Head Picks

In a clash of seasoned veterans, Cooper Webb’s recent consistency gives him a slight edge over the mercurial Jason Anderson. The ever-steady Malcolm Stewart looks to bounce back from a tough Washougal outing, but Dylan Ferrandis’ superior speed makes him a deserving favorite. Justin Barcia aims to recapture his early-season form, but the returning Ken Roczen’s raw talent justifies his heavy betting odds. Finally, the emerging Aaron Plessinger has all the tools to spring a minor upset over the more heralded Justin Cooper, whose inconsistency leaves him vulnerable to the focused and determined #7.

Where to Bet on the Unadilla National

Bets for the Unadilla National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide. 

With three rounds remaining and tensions mounting, the 2024 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship has reached its defining act. The title hopefuls are running out of chances to make their moves, lending an air of urgency and desperation to these final frenetic motos. All eyes will be on Chase Sexton as he looks to tighten his seemingly inexorable grip on this championship, but the chasing pack won’t go down without a fight. Will the #4 continue his merciless march toward glory, or will one of his pursuers finally unearth the formula to slow his unrelenting charge? Buckle up for another pulsating chapter in this already epic Motocross season.

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