Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Washougal National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for the Washougal National

Top Picks and Bets

Chase Sexton enters Washougal as a commanding title favorite, buoyed by the absence of chief rival Jett Lawrence and a scintillating run of form. The KTM rider has been virtually untouchable of late, flexing his considerable muscles with a demolition of the field at Spring Creek. Sexton’s superb blend of raw speed, racecraft and unflappable poise has him performing on a rarefied level, capable of overcoming any obstacle in his path. Even suboptimal starts couldn’t deter him at Millville, as he systematically carved through the pack before dropping the hammer with ruthless precision. Holding a firm 13-point championship lead and all the momentum, Sexton is every bit the -241 betting favorite the odds suggest. Barring a major mistake or mechanical misfortune, it’s impossible to envision a scenario where he doesn’t deliver another merciless beatdown on Saturday.

For Hunter Lawrence, meanwhile, Washougal represents something of a last stand if he hopes to keep his title aspirations afloat. The affable Aussie finds himself in a precarious position after losing touch with Sexton in recent rounds, despite logging six consecutive runner-up moto finishes. Lawrence’s best bet may be to utilize his elite starting prowess to assert control of the races from the outset, but even that might not be enough given Sexton’s searing pace and unshakable self-belief. Though Lawrence remains a clear second betting choice at +338, there’s no denying he needs a statement ride in the worst way to prove he can still challenge Sexton head-to-head. It’s put up or shut up time for the embattled championship runner-up.

Justin Cooper has settled into a remarkably consistent groove as he continues his debut 450MX campaign. Currently sitting at third overall in the standings, the Yamaha rider has been a steady presence at or near the podium, finishing between third and fifth place at every round since a sixth at the season opener. Cooper’s stock is trending up after a convincing third overall at Spring Creek, where he even led a portion of Moto 2 after snagging the holeshot. Though his ultimate upside remains somewhat capped, Cooper’s reliable podium contention at +3025 odds makes him an attractive option for fantasy players and prop bet enthusiasts. The 26-year-old seems poised to continue racking up understated results as he solidifies his position in the championship top five. Don’t expect Cooper to reinvent the wheel, but do count on him bringing his usual professional approach and stacking more solid finishes as the season winds down.

Outsider Picks

Aaron Plessinger continues to excel in his role as the 450MX division’s perennial underdog. The charismatic KTM rider has been a bastion of consistency in 2024, tallying four top-five overall finishes built on a foundation of unflashy proficiency. Plessinger even showcased a new dimension to his skillset at Spring Creek, leading laps with an assertive moto before ultimately claiming fourth overall. While still searching for that last bit of top-end speed to challenge for wins outright, Plessinger’s steady improvement and popularity with fans make him a compelling value play at +4084 odds.

Dylan Ferrandis, meanwhile, has endured a mystifying 2024 campaign in the wake of his runner-up finish in last year’s championship chase. After coming tantalizingly close to the title in 2023, the mercurial Frenchman was expected to be an alpha dog in the 450MX class this season. Instead, Ferrandis has struggled to find his footing, with flashes of speed interspersed with costly mistakes and inconsistency. Despite his enviable talent, Ferrandis hasn’t finished on the podium even once in this series and seems to have lost his way as the summer grinds on. While the #14 is certainly capable of turning it around, his erratic form makes him a dicey betting proposition until he can put together a complete weekend.

Rounding out the outsider selections is seasoned veteran Jason Anderson, still going strong at 31 years old. The crafty Kawasaki stalwart has made a career out of exceeding expectations, and 2024 has been no exception as he continues to churn out respectable results. Anderson’s gritty fifth overall at Spring Creek showcased his experience and racecraft, as he squeezed everything out of his machinery to secure a solid result. Though his ultimate upside may be limited as reflected in his generous +6992 odds, Anderson’s mental toughness and sneaky consistency make him a dependable top-five threat and intriguing fantasy option, especially on rougher tracks that reward his skillset.

Expert Pick for the Washougal National

Barring an upset of monumental proportions, this is Chase Sexton‘s race to lose. The KTM star’s riding has been peerless during his three-race win streak, and with Jett Lawrence out of the picture, he’s seized a commanding championship lead. Sexton’s ability to overcome adversity was on full display at Millville, where he shrugged off humdrum starts with forceful charges to the front. Bet against the surging #23 at your own peril – he’s in full control now.

Head-to-Head Picks

In a battle of veteran riders, Malcolm Stewart gets the slight nod over Christian Craig. Stewart’s experience and consistency give him the edge, but Craig’s raw speed makes him a live underdog. The clash between up-and-comers Shane McElrath and Garrett Marchbanks is a true toss-up, with McElrath’s recent form perhaps giving him the slightest of advantages. In the premier matchup, Chase Sexton is a heavy favorite over Hunter Lawrence given his superior speed and momentum, though Lawrence’s starting prowess could make things interesting. Look for Justin Cooper to continue his podium streak at the expense of Aaron Plessinger, while Jason Anderson’s savvy and mental toughness should be enough to overtake the enigmatic Dylan Ferrandis.

Where to Bet on the Washougal National

Bets for the Washougal National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide. 

As the gates prepare to drop at Washougal, the 2024 Pro Motocross Championship hangs in the balance. With Sexton looking to extend his lead, Lawrence aiming to reclaim lost ground, and a host of hungry challengers eyeing an upset, this round promises excitement from the first lap to the final checkered flag. The unique challenges of Washougal MX Park add an extra layer of unpredictability, making this a must-watch event for fans and a golden opportunity for savvy bettors.

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