Best Bets: 2024 Olympic Surfing at Teahupo’o Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for 2024 Olympic Surfing – Men’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Men’s Division

Gabriel Medina (+200) enters the Olympics as the favorite in the men’s division, bringing his formidable reputation at Teahupo’o to the forefront. The three-time world champion’s ability to blend progressive maneuvers with tactical savvy makes him a formidable opponent in any condition. Medina’s track record at Teahupo’o is impressive, with multiple finals appearances and wins in WSL events. His competitive fire and big-wave experience give him a significant edge in the challenging Tahitian lineup. While his 2024 WSL Tour performances have been spotty, Medina’s been on an upward trajectory the past few months – reaching the podium in two of his last three CT events. If he can harness that momentum in Tahiti, he has a strong chance to add an Olympic gold to his already glittering resume.

Jack Robinson (+320) stands as a serious threat to take the gold. The young Australian has been a standout at Teahupo’o in recent years, notching a commanding victory on the 2023 WSL tour and consistently posting some of the highest heat scores in challenging conditions. Robinson’s fearless approach and mastery of heavy barrels make him a perennial threat at this venue. His recent performances suggest he’s in great form and ready to challenge for the top spot. If he can maintain his composure and capitalize on his affinity for Teahupo’o’s waves, Robinson could very well find himself atop the podium.

Hot on his heels is John John Florence (+350), bringing with him a legacy that has already cemented his place among surfing’s all-time greats. The 31-year-old Hawaiian has roared back to peak form in 2024 after a frustrating run of injuries, currently leading the WSL rankings and showcasing the transcendent talent that earned him two world titles (2016, 2017). Florence’s powerful, fluid style seems tailor-made for Teahupo’o’s heavy left-hand barrels, as evidenced by his recent runner-up finish at the Shiseido Tahiti Pro. What sets him apart is not just his technical proficiency, but his innate ability to read the ocean and position himself perfectly for even the most challenging waves. Now a new father and approaching the Olympics with renewed focus after a disappointing early exit in Tokyo, Florence seems to have found an extra gear. If conditions align and Teahupo’o shows its true colors, expect Florence to be in his element, threading cavernous barrels with his unparalleled combination of grace and power.

Outsider Picks – Men’s Division

Kauli Vaast (+800) emerges as the event’s most intriguing dark horse. The Tahitian local brings an unmatched level of experience at Teahupo’o to the Olympic field. Having grown up in the shadow of this legendary wave, Vaast possesses an intimate knowledge of its moods and intricacies that could prove invaluable in competition. While he may lack the high-level competitive experience of some top-ranked surfers, his comfort in these waves is undeniable. Vaast’s recent performances, including standout rides in some of Teahupo’o’s heaviest conditions, have shown he has the skill and courage to compete with the world’s best. With the weight of his home nation’s hopes on his shoulders and the support of a frenzied local crowd, Vaast could produce the kind of cinematic underdog story that Olympic dreams are made of.

Griffin Colapinto (+900) enters the Olympics as an intriguing dark horse. The young Californian’s impressive 2024 WSL tour performance, currently holding the second spot in the overall standings, has elevated him from outsider to serious contender. Colapinto’s progressive style and aerial prowess have been on full display this season, and his high-risk, high-reward approach could be a perfect fit for Teahupo’o’s challenging waves. While consistency has been an occasional issue, his raw talent and fearless attitude make him capable of causing major upsets. If the conditions align with his strengths and he brings his A-game, Colapinto has a legitimate shot at the podium. For gutsy bettors, his longer odds offer the potential for a substantial payout if he can go all the way to gold.

Perhaps surprisingly, the final men’s outsider pick is surfing legend Filipe Toledo (+1600). His long odds reflect the Brazilian’s notoriously complicated relationship with Teahupo’o, with past performances often falling short of his incredible talents. However, writing off Toledo would be a grave mistake. His speed, precision, and competitive drive are unmatched on the world tour. If Teahupo’o serves up anything less than its most terrifying conditions, Toledo has the skills to outperform virtually anyone in the field. Moreover, the weight of an Olympic gold medal could provide the motivation Toledo needs to overcome his Teahupo’o demons once and for all. For bettors with an appetite for risk and a belief in Toledo’s ability to rewrite his own narrative, these odds offer tantalizing value.

Expert Pick – Men’s Division

After weighing all the factors and analyzing the data, our expert pick for the men’s gold medal is John John Florence. His combination of raw talent, competitive drive, and comfort in the heavy barrels of Teahupo’o give him the edge over his rivals. With two world titles already under his belt and a renewed focus on his Olympic ambitions, Florence has all the tools to stand atop the podium and etch his name in the history books.

Head-to-Head Picks – Men’s Division

The men’s Olympic surfing matchups offer several intriguing betting opportunities. While John John Florence is favored in this format, Jack Robinson’s near-even odds present good value given his strong performances in Teahupo’o in recent years. The Medina-Ewing matchup is another where the underdog (Ewing) might be worth considering. The biggest potential upset lies with local favorite Kauli Vaast against Filipe Toledo; Vaast’s home-break knowledge could prove decisive. Colapinto vs. Chianca is practically a toss-up, offering balanced risk for bettors. For those seeking a safer wager, Jordy Smith over Kanoa Igarashi provides a moderate favorite with proven Teahupo’o credentials. Keep an eye on wave conditions, as they could significantly impact performances and outcomes.

Best Bets and Picks for the 2024 Olympic Surfing – Women’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Women’s Division

Vahine Fierro (+300) enters the Olympics as the favorite in the women’s division, carrying the hopes of her home nation on her shoulders. The Tahitian phenom’s connection to Teahupo’o runs deep – she’s been surfing these waves since childhood, developing an almost symbiotic relationship with one of the world’s most challenging breaks. Fierro’s recent victory at the Tahiti Pro was a masterclass in local knowledge and technical proficiency, as she consistently found the deepest barrels and most critical sections. Her comfort in heavy conditions sets her apart from much of the field, allowing her to sit deeper and commit to waves that others might balk at. The added motivation of competing for Olympic gold on home turf cannot be overstated. If Fierro can manage the pressure and surf with the freedom she’s shown in recent competitions, we could witness a historic performance that cements her place among surfing’s elite.

Next is Caroline Marks (+350), who has a strong case for the gold, herself. The 22-year-old Floridian has been on a meteoric rise since joining the Championship Tour in 2018 as its youngest-ever competitor. Now the current world No. 2, Marks has been in stellar form this season, showcasing the powerful backhand attack and unflappable composure that have become her hallmarks. Her recent performances at Teahupo’o have been particularly impressive, with a CT win in 2023 and a semi-finals appearance just last month at the Shiseido Tahiti Pro. Marks’ aggressive style, honed on the punchy waves of the East Coast, translates remarkably well to the hollow lefts of Tahiti. Her ability to read the wave and position herself deep in the barrel sets her apart from many competitors. Coming off a strong 2023 season where she clinched her first world title, Marks brings momentum and confidence into the Olympic arena. If she can maintain her focus and capitalize on her recent success at this venue, Marks has all the tools necessary to secure a spot on the Olympic podium and potentially claim gold in what could be a defining moment of her already impressive career.

Carissa Moore (+400) rounds out the top picks, bringing an unmatched pedigree to the Olympic stage. The reigning gold medalist and five-time world champion’s decision to step back from full-time competition has only added to the intrigue surrounding her Olympic campaign. Moore’s smooth, powerful style is tailor-made for Teahupo’o’s demanding waves, combining graceful carves with fearless barrel-riding. Her experience in high-pressure situations is unparalleled in the field, having consistently performed at the highest level for over a decade. While she may not have the recent competitive reps of some of her rivals, Moore’s big-game temperament and undeniable talent make her a serious threat for gold. As she prepares for what could be her competitive swansong, the motivation to defend her Olympic title could propel Moore to yet another historic performance.

Outsider Picks – Women’s Division

Molly Picklum (+600), the rising star from Australia, leads off our sleeper picks. Despite her relative inexperience compared to some of her rivals, Picklum has been making a name for herself with her fearless approach and progressive maneuvers. Notably, she has already proven her mettle at Teahupo’o, having reached the quarterfinals in both the 2023 and 2024 Tahiti Pros on the WSL tour. Picklum’s raw talent, combined with her competitive drive, makes her a dangerous dark horse capable of upsetting the established order. If she can find her rhythm early and maintain her composure, a spot on the podium is well within reach for this rising star.

Caitlin Simmers (+600), at just 18 years old, represents the vanguard of a new generation in women’s surfing. Currently leading the WSL standings with multiple CT wins this year, Simmers has been turning heads with her dynamic style and preternatural competitive maturity. While her experience at Teahupo’o may be limited compared to some of her competitors, her adaptability and fearless approach make her a wildcard capable of causing major upsets. Simmers’ aerial prowess adds a dimension to her surfing that could prove decisive if Teahupo’o offers up any rampable sections. Moreover, the relative lack of pressure on her as a first-time Olympian could allow her to surf with a freedom that unlocks her full potential. For bettors looking for a high-risk, high-reward option, Simmers offers an enticing blend of talent and value.

Tyler Wright (+800) rounds out the women’s outsider picks, bringing a wealth of experience and championship pedigree to the Olympic field. The two-time world champion’s power surfing and tactical acumen make her well-suited to Teahupo’o’s challenges, particularly if the wave serves up larger, more consequential conditions. Wright’s comeback story – overcoming serious health issues to return to the elite level – speaks to her mental fortitude and unwavering determination. While she may not have been in the spotlight as much recently, Wright’s ability to elevate her performance in high-stakes situations is well-documented. If she can tap into the form that made her one of the most dominant surfers of her generation, Wright has the potential to make a deep run and challenge for a medal, offering significant value at these odds.

Expert Pick – Women’s Division

In the women’s field, our nod goes to Caroline Marks. The powerful American has been in scintillating form this season, and her runner-up finish at the recent Tahiti Pro showcased her comfort in the heavy conditions of Teahupo’o. With her sights firmly set on Olympic glory, Marks has the talent, experience, and competitive drive to take home the gold medal.

Head-to-Head Picks – Women’s Division

In the women’s division, savvy bettors might find value in several matchups. Vahine Fierro as underdog against Caroline Marks is particularly intriguing, given Fierro’s home-break advantage. The Picklum-Hennessy contest offers a near 50-50 proposition for those comfortable with close odds. While Carissa Moore is heavily favored, Caitlin Simmers might be worth a small stake given her recent form and potential for upset. Perhaps the most tempting underdog bet is Tatiana Weston-Webb against Johanne Defay, considering Weston-Webb’s recent Teahupo’o performances. For those looking to parlay, combining favorites Moore and Tyler Wright could provide a solid foundation without excessive risk.

Where to Bet on Olympic Surfing 2024

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As the Olympics draw near, the anticipation is reaching a fever pitch. With a tantalizing mix of favorites, dark horses, and potential surprises, the surfing competition in Tahiti promises to be a must-watch event. Stay tuned for our comprehensive coverage and analysis throughout the Games, as we bring you all the latest insights, breaking news, and expert opinions. The quest for gold is about to begin, and history is waiting to be written on the hallowed waves of Teahupo’o.

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