Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
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Player
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Fermín Aldeguer
+225
$65.00
Álex Márquez
+275
$75.00
Pedro Acosta
+333
$86.60
Francesco Bagnaia
+335
$87.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+900
$200.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+1700
$360.00
Joan Mir
+2900
$600.00
Luca Marini
+2900
$600.00
Jack Miller
+3400
$700.00
Raul Fernandez
+3400
$700.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1,000.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1,100.00
Enea Bastianini
+5400
$1,100.00
Ai Ogura
+6400
$1,300.00
Alex Rins
+9900
$2,000.00
Pol Espargaro
+9900
$2,000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+9900
$2,000.00
Michele Pirro
+14900
$3,000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+49900
$10,000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+49900
$10,000.00
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Fermín Aldeguer fractured his left femur in a training crash earlier this month and underwent surgery in Barcelona shortly after. The operation was described as successful, but Gresini called the fracture complex.
His long‑time physiotherapist, Aitor Tomas, said it is “impossible” for Aldeguer to be ready for the early‑February pre‑season tests at Sepang and Buriram. Tomas added the team will “fight” to have him available for the season opener and noted recoveries vary, citing Pedro Acosta’s quick return from a similar injury, but Gresini cautioned that such comparisons are imperfect.
With the season opener scheduled Feb 27–Mar 1 in Buriram, Aldeguer’s participation is uncertain. Multiple reports suggest a comeback may not come until the Qatar Grand Prix on April 10–12. If so, he would miss the first three rounds (Thailand, Argentina, USA) and all pre‑season running, further limiting bike setup and race‑trim work.
Gresini has not named a replacement; short‑term lineup decisions will depend on medical reassessment and rehabilitation progress. Separately, reports say Ducati has removed the Murcian from its 2027 rider shortlist, an unconfirmed development that could affect Aldeguer’s longer‑term prospects if his recovery or form are impacted. Updates from his medical team and Gresini will determine whether he can be fit for Buriram or will require an extended layoff into the early rounds of the MotoGP season.
Marc Marquez crosses the English Channel as the Championship leader after leapfrogging his younger brother at Le Mans. “The Ant of Cervera” starts the MotoGP British Grand Prix pre-event odds as the favorite ahead of Francesco Bagnaia, the 2022 victor at this venue. Enea Bastianini starts as the defending Champion on this asphalt. After reading …
Ducati’s recent slump — centered on worsening front-end and braking performance — has become a clear wake-up call that has forced urgent setup and development work, team and industry figures said. Factory general manager Gigi Dall’Igna described the lackluster weekend in Austin as a wake-up call and warned the team must work hard on setup and development to regain winning form.
Engineers and riders pointed to a loss of front-end grip and weaker braking and corner-entry performance versus the Aprilia RS-GP; those problems have cost Ducati tire life and race pace and have materially affected early 2026 results.
Heavy rain and flash flooding at the refurbished Autódromo Ayrton Senna in Goiânia threatened final preparations for the MotoGP Brazil Grand Prix, the first Brazilian round in 37 years. A storm that began Monday afternoon returned with force on Tuesday; by 5 p.m. local time the paddock access tunnel was submerged under more than 25 cm of water. Multiple sections of the circuit were waterlogged, including about 12 metres of asphalt in Turn 1, the final corner and the end of the main straight.
Local authorities issued emergency alerts and civil defense warnings as organizers, track teams and the Climate Crisis Office launched recovery operations. Crews used tanker trucks and manual clearing to drain standing water and remove mud, working through Wednesday after initial efforts the previous day. Organizers said they would repeat removal operations because further rain was forecast, noting the situation was time‑sensitive with roughly 48 hours until Moto3 FP1 at 9 a.m. local time on Friday.
By mid‑morning officials reported temperatures around 30°C and said the asphalt was practically dry in places, but they cautioned that an adverse forecast could still compromise the weekend and that drainage and safety conditions must be assessed before any schedule changes. Event organizers stressed they were not discussing cancellation and pledged to do everything possible to stage the Grand Prix, but acknowledged that localized flooding, damage to access routes and the ongoing forecast left the weekend’s staging uncertain.
The incident underlined the tight turnaround and high stakes involved in returning MotoGP to Brazil after more than three decades, as teams and organizers worked against time to restore the circuit ahead of round two of the season.
Best Bets: 2025 MotoGP Australia Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the Australian MotoGP
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Related Posts
Aldeguer Could Miss Three Rounds: Eyes Qatar Return
Fermín Aldeguer fractured his left femur in a training crash earlier this month and underwent surgery in Barcelona shortly after. The operation was described as successful, but Gresini called the fracture complex.
His long‑time physiotherapist, Aitor Tomas, said it is “impossible” for Aldeguer to be ready for the early‑February pre‑season tests at Sepang and Buriram. Tomas added the team will “fight” to have him available for the season opener and noted recoveries vary, citing Pedro Acosta’s quick return from a similar injury, but Gresini cautioned that such comparisons are imperfect.
With the season opener scheduled Feb 27–Mar 1 in Buriram, Aldeguer’s participation is uncertain. Multiple reports suggest a comeback may not come until the Qatar Grand Prix on April 10–12. If so, he would miss the first three rounds (Thailand, Argentina, USA) and all pre‑season running, further limiting bike setup and race‑trim work.
Gresini has not named a replacement; short‑term lineup decisions will depend on medical reassessment and rehabilitation progress. Separately, reports say Ducati has removed the Murcian from its 2027 rider shortlist, an unconfirmed development that could affect Aldeguer’s longer‑term prospects if his recovery or form are impacted. Updates from his medical team and Gresini will determine whether he can be fit for Buriram or will require an extended layoff into the early rounds of the MotoGP season.
Best Bets: MotoGP British Grand Prix 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Marc Marquez crosses the English Channel as the Championship leader after leapfrogging his younger brother at Le Mans. “The Ant of Cervera” starts the MotoGP British Grand Prix pre-event odds as the favorite ahead of Francesco Bagnaia, the 2022 victor at this venue. Enea Bastianini starts as the defending Champion on this asphalt. After reading …
Austin slump forces Ducati into urgent setup push
Ducati’s recent slump — centered on worsening front-end and braking performance — has become a clear wake-up call that has forced urgent setup and development work, team and industry figures said. Factory general manager Gigi Dall’Igna described the lackluster weekend in Austin as a wake-up call and warned the team must work hard on setup and development to regain winning form.
Engineers and riders pointed to a loss of front-end grip and weaker braking and corner-entry performance versus the Aprilia RS-GP; those problems have cost Ducati tire life and race pace and have materially affected early 2026 results.
Goiânia paddock tunnel submerged; Turn 1 waterlogged
Heavy rain and flash flooding at the refurbished Autódromo Ayrton Senna in Goiânia threatened final preparations for the MotoGP Brazil Grand Prix, the first Brazilian round in 37 years. A storm that began Monday afternoon returned with force on Tuesday; by 5 p.m. local time the paddock access tunnel was submerged under more than 25 cm of water. Multiple sections of the circuit were waterlogged, including about 12 metres of asphalt in Turn 1, the final corner and the end of the main straight.
Local authorities issued emergency alerts and civil defense warnings as organizers, track teams and the Climate Crisis Office launched recovery operations. Crews used tanker trucks and manual clearing to drain standing water and remove mud, working through Wednesday after initial efforts the previous day. Organizers said they would repeat removal operations because further rain was forecast, noting the situation was time‑sensitive with roughly 48 hours until Moto3 FP1 at 9 a.m. local time on Friday.
By mid‑morning officials reported temperatures around 30°C and said the asphalt was practically dry in places, but they cautioned that an adverse forecast could still compromise the weekend and that drainage and safety conditions must be assessed before any schedule changes. Event organizers stressed they were not discussing cancellation and pledged to do everything possible to stage the Grand Prix, but acknowledged that localized flooding, damage to access routes and the ongoing forecast left the weekend’s staging uncertain.
The incident underlined the tight turnaround and high stakes involved in returning MotoGP to Brazil after more than three decades, as teams and organizers worked against time to restore the circuit ahead of round two of the season.