Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
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Player
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Fermín Aldeguer
+225
$65.00
Álex Márquez
+275
$75.00
Pedro Acosta
+333
$86.60
Francesco Bagnaia
+335
$87.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+900
$200.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+1700
$360.00
Joan Mir
+2900
$600.00
Luca Marini
+2900
$600.00
Jack Miller
+3400
$700.00
Raul Fernandez
+3400
$700.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1,000.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1,100.00
Enea Bastianini
+5400
$1,100.00
Ai Ogura
+6400
$1,300.00
Alex Rins
+9900
$2,000.00
Pol Espargaro
+9900
$2,000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+9900
$2,000.00
Michele Pirro
+14900
$3,000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+49900
$10,000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+49900
$10,000.00
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Fermín Aldeguer fractured his left femur in a training crash earlier this month and underwent surgery in Barcelona shortly after. The operation was described as successful, but Gresini called the fracture complex.
His long‑time physiotherapist, Aitor Tomas, said it is “impossible” for Aldeguer to be ready for the early‑February pre‑season tests at Sepang and Buriram. Tomas added the team will “fight” to have him available for the season opener and noted recoveries vary, citing Pedro Acosta’s quick return from a similar injury, but Gresini cautioned that such comparisons are imperfect.
With the season opener scheduled Feb 27–Mar 1 in Buriram, Aldeguer’s participation is uncertain. Multiple reports suggest a comeback may not come until the Qatar Grand Prix on April 10–12. If so, he would miss the first three rounds (Thailand, Argentina, USA) and all pre‑season running, further limiting bike setup and race‑trim work.
Gresini has not named a replacement; short‑term lineup decisions will depend on medical reassessment and rehabilitation progress. Separately, reports say Ducati has removed the Murcian from its 2027 rider shortlist, an unconfirmed development that could affect Aldeguer’s longer‑term prospects if his recovery or form are impacted. Updates from his medical team and Gresini will determine whether he can be fit for Buriram or will require an extended layoff into the early rounds of the MotoGP season.
Toprak Razgatlioglu delivered a downbeat assessment after the Sepang pre‑season MotoGP test, saying he expects to “probably struggle in the first five races” as he adapts from World Superbikes to MotoGP machinery. He completed the test with a best lap of 1:58.326, recorded around 18th–19th on the timesheets, well adrift of pacesetter Álex Márquez’s 1:56.402. After four-and-a-half days on track, he reported learning “something, but not a lot,” and said the five consecutive days left him physically tired, underlining how different the demands of a MotoGP race bike are compared with production‑based superbikes.
The Sepang sessions also exposed technical and setup problems within Yamaha’s new V4 package. The factory briefly halted running when a Yamaha V4 stopped on track, before resolving the engine issue and returning to action. Razgatlioglu highlighted ergonomic and handling challenges that “you can’t turn with the throttle,” and he has had to ride the YZR‑V4 more like a Moto2 machine, explaining that suspension changes are planned to improve turning. He reported improved braking after trying a different seat and reattaching the rear wing (earlier runs had the wing removed because his original seat exceeded height limits), but remained uncertain about Michelin rear‑tire wear and said tire behavior still limited his ability to hit his target lap time.
Others outside Yamaha framed Sepang as a learning and diagnostic outing. Pedro Acosta publicly urged Toprak to be cautious and not to overload expectations during his rookie transition, while Carlos Checa called him a likely top‑five rider but flagged two main uncertainties. The first is how well Yamaha’s new package will perform, followed by whether Toprak can adapt quickly to Michelin tires in the premier class. Yamaha plans further setup work and new parts at the Buriram test in just over two weeks, including additional rear‑wing trials and a possible 12‑lap race simulation to evaluate tire behavior. Taken together, the Sepang test highlighted both rookie adaptation issues and early reliability/setup and tire concerns for Yamaha’s V4 prototype, leaving Toprak’s immediate race competitiveness cautious rather than assured as the season opener approaches.
David Almansa produced a dominant weekend at the 2026 Moto3 Thai Grand Prix in Buriram, claiming pole, topping final practice and then edging Máximo Quiles by 0.003 seconds in a dramatic 19-lap photo finish to win the season-opening race. Riding a Pirelli-shod Liqui Moly Dynavolt Intact GP KTM, Almansa started from pole, led for much of the race and carried the better exit from the last corner to the line to secure victory — the closest Moto3 finish since the 2013 Australian Grand Prix.
Almansa set the tone in practice and qualifying: he topped Saturday morning FP2 with a 1:40.922 lap on the 4.55km Chang International Circuit (the only rider in the 1:40s in FP2) and then took pole with a 1:40.088 in qualifying, a time that eclipsed Jose Antonio Rueda’s 2025 all-time lap record of 1:40.350. FP2 placed Adrian Fernández and Máximo Quiles among the session leaders as well (reports list Fernández’s FP2 time as either 1:41.278 or 1:41.202), and Álvaro Carpe and Fernández filled the second and third slots on the grid with 1:40.518 and 1:40.693 respectively.
The race furnished tense moments and drama: Quiles, who had started fourth, briefly took the lead on lap 11 before running wide at Turn 1 and allowing Almansa back through; Quiles launched a last-corner attack but Almansa’s momentum to the line decided the outcome. Quiles finished a scant 0.003 seconds behind, while Valentín Perrone came home third 9.480 seconds back. Álvaro Carpe was fourth and Moto3 debutant Veda Pratama fifth; Adrian Fernández finished sixth. The result moved Almansa to the top of the Moto3 standings with 25 points, Quiles sat second on 20 and Perrone third on 16. The race also featured one retirement (Cormac Buchanan) and incidents including Ryusei Yamanaka and Guido Pini crashing earlier and remounting.
Marc Márquez’s future in MotoGP is uncertain as he balances recovery from repeated, serious injuries with ongoing contract negotiations. He has said, “I know I’ll be ending my sporting career on two wheels,” described himself as being in his “final dance,” and acknowledged he is “limited more by my body than by my mind.” He also says renewal talks with Ducati “are going well,” but there is no concrete news; reports say his current deal is expiring, he has requested a one-plus-one contract rather than a long-term deal, and he plans to wait until he is fully recovered before deciding.
Márquez’s caution is rooted in a difficult medical history. He underwent four major operations over two years after a 2020 right humerus fracture. In 2025 he suffered a season-ending shoulder problem — including a coracoid fracture, ligament damage and a broken collarbone — after being taken out at Mandalika by Marco Bezzecchi; that incident required surgery in October. He returned to a MotoGP machine at the Sepang test in February and made his racing comeback at the Thailand Grand Prix, where he finished second in the sprint before a tire failure ended a Grand Prix podium bid. He continues extra training and physiotherapy.
Outside observers differ on how long Márquez will continue. Former rider Alex Barros suggested Márquez could consider retirement even if he defends the 2026 title, citing lingering shoulder issues and the potential arrival of Pedro Acosta at Ducati in 2027, while framing that view as speculation. Promoter and pundit Carlo Pernat said he saw “fear” in Márquez’s eyes after recent injuries but predicted he would race “another year or two,” noting the rider remains fast enough to beat most rivals while warning that rising talents such as Acosta could reshape the rivalry ahead. Despite the setbacks, Márquez remains competitive for Ducati, having secured his seventh MotoGP title in 2025 and becoming the oldest rider to claim the championship.
Best Bets: 2025 MotoGP Australia Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the Australian MotoGP
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Related Posts
Aldeguer Could Miss Three Rounds: Eyes Qatar Return
Fermín Aldeguer fractured his left femur in a training crash earlier this month and underwent surgery in Barcelona shortly after. The operation was described as successful, but Gresini called the fracture complex.
His long‑time physiotherapist, Aitor Tomas, said it is “impossible” for Aldeguer to be ready for the early‑February pre‑season tests at Sepang and Buriram. Tomas added the team will “fight” to have him available for the season opener and noted recoveries vary, citing Pedro Acosta’s quick return from a similar injury, but Gresini cautioned that such comparisons are imperfect.
With the season opener scheduled Feb 27–Mar 1 in Buriram, Aldeguer’s participation is uncertain. Multiple reports suggest a comeback may not come until the Qatar Grand Prix on April 10–12. If so, he would miss the first three rounds (Thailand, Argentina, USA) and all pre‑season running, further limiting bike setup and race‑trim work.
Gresini has not named a replacement; short‑term lineup decisions will depend on medical reassessment and rehabilitation progress. Separately, reports say Ducati has removed the Murcian from its 2027 rider shortlist, an unconfirmed development that could affect Aldeguer’s longer‑term prospects if his recovery or form are impacted. Updates from his medical team and Gresini will determine whether he can be fit for Buriram or will require an extended layoff into the early rounds of the MotoGP season.
Toprak: I’ll Probably Struggle First Five Races After Sepang
Toprak Razgatlioglu delivered a downbeat assessment after the Sepang pre‑season MotoGP test, saying he expects to “probably struggle in the first five races” as he adapts from World Superbikes to MotoGP machinery. He completed the test with a best lap of 1:58.326, recorded around 18th–19th on the timesheets, well adrift of pacesetter Álex Márquez’s 1:56.402. After four-and-a-half days on track, he reported learning “something, but not a lot,” and said the five consecutive days left him physically tired, underlining how different the demands of a MotoGP race bike are compared with production‑based superbikes.
The Sepang sessions also exposed technical and setup problems within Yamaha’s new V4 package. The factory briefly halted running when a Yamaha V4 stopped on track, before resolving the engine issue and returning to action. Razgatlioglu highlighted ergonomic and handling challenges that “you can’t turn with the throttle,” and he has had to ride the YZR‑V4 more like a Moto2 machine, explaining that suspension changes are planned to improve turning. He reported improved braking after trying a different seat and reattaching the rear wing (earlier runs had the wing removed because his original seat exceeded height limits), but remained uncertain about Michelin rear‑tire wear and said tire behavior still limited his ability to hit his target lap time.
Others outside Yamaha framed Sepang as a learning and diagnostic outing. Pedro Acosta publicly urged Toprak to be cautious and not to overload expectations during his rookie transition, while Carlos Checa called him a likely top‑five rider but flagged two main uncertainties. The first is how well Yamaha’s new package will perform, followed by whether Toprak can adapt quickly to Michelin tires in the premier class. Yamaha plans further setup work and new parts at the Buriram test in just over two weeks, including additional rear‑wing trials and a possible 12‑lap race simulation to evaluate tire behavior. Taken together, the Sepang test highlighted both rookie adaptation issues and early reliability/setup and tire concerns for Yamaha’s V4 prototype, leaving Toprak’s immediate race competitiveness cautious rather than assured as the season opener approaches.
Almansa wins Buriram Moto3 GP by 0.003s
David Almansa produced a dominant weekend at the 2026 Moto3 Thai Grand Prix in Buriram, claiming pole, topping final practice and then edging Máximo Quiles by 0.003 seconds in a dramatic 19-lap photo finish to win the season-opening race. Riding a Pirelli-shod Liqui Moly Dynavolt Intact GP KTM, Almansa started from pole, led for much of the race and carried the better exit from the last corner to the line to secure victory — the closest Moto3 finish since the 2013 Australian Grand Prix.
Almansa set the tone in practice and qualifying: he topped Saturday morning FP2 with a 1:40.922 lap on the 4.55km Chang International Circuit (the only rider in the 1:40s in FP2) and then took pole with a 1:40.088 in qualifying, a time that eclipsed Jose Antonio Rueda’s 2025 all-time lap record of 1:40.350. FP2 placed Adrian Fernández and Máximo Quiles among the session leaders as well (reports list Fernández’s FP2 time as either 1:41.278 or 1:41.202), and Álvaro Carpe and Fernández filled the second and third slots on the grid with 1:40.518 and 1:40.693 respectively.
The race furnished tense moments and drama: Quiles, who had started fourth, briefly took the lead on lap 11 before running wide at Turn 1 and allowing Almansa back through; Quiles launched a last-corner attack but Almansa’s momentum to the line decided the outcome. Quiles finished a scant 0.003 seconds behind, while Valentín Perrone came home third 9.480 seconds back. Álvaro Carpe was fourth and Moto3 debutant Veda Pratama fifth; Adrian Fernández finished sixth. The result moved Almansa to the top of the Moto3 standings with 25 points, Quiles sat second on 20 and Perrone third on 16. The race also featured one retirement (Cormac Buchanan) and incidents including Ryusei Yamanaka and Guido Pini crashing earlier and remounting.
Marc Márquez Weighs Retirement Amid Injuries, Ducati Talks
Marc Márquez’s future in MotoGP is uncertain as he balances recovery from repeated, serious injuries with ongoing contract negotiations. He has said, “I know I’ll be ending my sporting career on two wheels,” described himself as being in his “final dance,” and acknowledged he is “limited more by my body than by my mind.” He also says renewal talks with Ducati “are going well,” but there is no concrete news; reports say his current deal is expiring, he has requested a one-plus-one contract rather than a long-term deal, and he plans to wait until he is fully recovered before deciding.
Márquez’s caution is rooted in a difficult medical history. He underwent four major operations over two years after a 2020 right humerus fracture. In 2025 he suffered a season-ending shoulder problem — including a coracoid fracture, ligament damage and a broken collarbone — after being taken out at Mandalika by Marco Bezzecchi; that incident required surgery in October. He returned to a MotoGP machine at the Sepang test in February and made his racing comeback at the Thailand Grand Prix, where he finished second in the sprint before a tire failure ended a Grand Prix podium bid. He continues extra training and physiotherapy.
Outside observers differ on how long Márquez will continue. Former rider Alex Barros suggested Márquez could consider retirement even if he defends the 2026 title, citing lingering shoulder issues and the potential arrival of Pedro Acosta at Ducati in 2027, while framing that view as speculation. Promoter and pundit Carlo Pernat said he saw “fear” in Márquez’s eyes after recent injuries but predicted he would race “another year or two,” noting the rider remains fast enough to beat most rivals while warning that rising talents such as Acosta could reshape the rivalry ahead. Despite the setbacks, Márquez remains competitive for Ducati, having secured his seventh MotoGP title in 2025 and becoming the oldest rider to claim the championship.