Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
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Player
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Fermín Aldeguer
+225
$65.00
Álex Márquez
+275
$75.00
Pedro Acosta
+333
$86.60
Francesco Bagnaia
+335
$87.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+900
$200.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+1700
$360.00
Joan Mir
+2900
$600.00
Luca Marini
+2900
$600.00
Jack Miller
+3400
$700.00
Raul Fernandez
+3400
$700.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1,000.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1,100.00
Enea Bastianini
+5400
$1,100.00
Ai Ogura
+6400
$1,300.00
Alex Rins
+9900
$2,000.00
Pol Espargaro
+9900
$2,000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+9900
$2,000.00
Michele Pirro
+14900
$3,000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+49900
$10,000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+49900
$10,000.00
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Are you a MotoGP lover in Wisconsin looking for a new, exciting experience? We highly recommend Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). DFS allows you to compete against other MotoGP lovers in highly engaging contests, adding to the excitement of watching MotoGP races and events. If you are tired of the limited retail sportsbooks in Wisconsin, you …
Reports before the first official 2026 pre-season test at Sepang claimed Fabio Quartararo had signed a two-year deal to join Honda from 2027. However, the rider publicly denied a completed agreement, while confirming HRC remained one of the options he was considering. The Sepang test itself was disruptive. Quartararo crashed on day one, broke a finger, and missed the remainder of that session, then encountered an engine problem Yamaha could not fix during the test. Yamaha also missed running after an unexpected engine issue described by team management as something they had “never had” before, as Alex Rins posted Yamaha’s best finish (12th). Team sporting director Massimo Meregalli said the Sepang incident did not change decisions on Quartararo’s future and characterized the interruption as a delay that pushed parts of the negotiation and testing program toward the next test.
Yamaha acknowledged it had reduced engine revs as a protective measure while continuing the development of its new V4, and planned to complete unfinished work during the upcoming Buriram test. The manufacturer emphasized continuity of its V4 program and insisted contract talks over 2027 were proceeding despite the Sepang interruption. Quartararo himself denied reports he had already signed for Honda even as questions about Yamaha’s pace of development and testing reliability intensified. Media reports and team comments linked the technical setbacks at Yamaha with increased speculation over the rider market, rather than presenting any confirmed move.
Honda presented a contrasting picture of forward momentum at Sepang. Team manager Alberto Puig praised Quartararo as “fantastic,” highlighted steady technical progress at HRC, including a lighter bike and improved engine response. The former rider cautioned that immediate wins could not be guaranteed. Joan Mir set the fastest time on day two, in what was reported as the quickest Honda lap around Sepang, and described the current RC213V as the best bike he had ridden, adding weight to Honda’s on-track gains. Puig repeatedly denied that anything for 2027 had been decided, and said Honda would prioritize its current roster while seeking riders who were both fast and intelligent. He noted that Johann Zarco and Diogo Moreira were already locked in with LCR through 2027, leaving factory-team seats contested between Mir and Luca Marini. Puig framed the 2026 contract season as chaotic and said on-track results and the evolving rule environment would shape final decisions once the season got underway.
Pedro Acosta was declared the winner of the opening Sprint at the Thailand GP in Buriram after race stewards penalized Marc Márquez one position for forcing Acosta wide at the final corner. Márquez accepted the one-place drop in parc fermé following steward Simon Crafar’s decision, promoting Acosta to victory on the official results — Acosta’s first MotoGP win in any format, achieved at the season opener of his third campaign.
Marco Bezzecchi had dominated the weekend, topping practice sessions and setting a practice lap record of 1:28.526 before taking pole with a 1:28.652 in qualifying. He suffered two crashes over the weekend, including a heavy Q2 tumble that deployed his airbag and left him sore, and he crashed from the lead in the Sprint while attempting to open a gap; that incident removed him from contention and left Acosta and Márquez to duel for victory.
Acosta executed a decisive pass on the penultimate lap and Márquez lunged back at the final corner; after a stewards’ review the late lunge was judged to have forced Acosta wide, triggering Márquez’s demotion. Raúl Fernández finished third on the road, roughly half a second behind the leading pair, while Ai Ogura recovered to fourth. Jorge Martín crossed fifth on the road but faced an eight-second sanction for a suspected tire-pressure infringement that could alter the official finishing order; that penalty remained under review at the time of reporting, and Ducati team boss Davide Tardozzi called the sanction “unfair.” The 13-lap Buriram Sprint produced a landmark early-season victory for Acosta after an eventful qualifying and sprint day.
Maverick Viñales announced at the KTM/Tech3 KTM 2026 launch that he has hired three-time champion Jorge Lorenzo as his performance coach. The formal partnership is formed to turn Viñales’s clear, raw pace into a sustained title challenge. Lorenzo’s remit covers technical areas such as throttle management, braking, race-specific preparation, and setting concrete, measurable goals; he is expected to join Viñales for testing and early races and has already been working closely with him since being brought in late in the previous season. Viñales said discussions about working together began after his double win at the 2024 Grand Prix of the Americas, though family timing delayed his ability to commit full-time. The hire represents a notable personnel change at Tech3 KTM and a pragmatic reconciliation between two former rivals who have moved from public barbs to a close, performance-focused working relationship.
Viñales also confirmed he has recovered from the Sachsenring shoulder injury that disrupted his 2025 campaign and missed the second half of that season. He reports he has regained weight, up 13 pounds from a previous benchmark of 134 pounds. In addition, the Red Bull Athlete Performance Center has confirmed his power has returned, and he expects to be fully fit for the upcoming Sepang test. Winter work has targeted specific weaknesses. Lorenzo has pushed wet sessions and 600cc training to improve sliding technique and rear-tire use, while Viñales and his engineers have focused on reducing rear shaking and improving cornering. After the first test, Viñales received positive feedback from Pedro Acosta and plans to use the pre-season tests to provide development input and validate measurable progress.
The partnership is presented as both an immediate performance aid and a potential stepping stone toward longer-term moves. Spanish outlet AS reported KTM is prioritizing Viñales as a possible factory signing for 2027 should Pedro Acosta leave. Viñales has emphasized that pure talent isn’t enough and that hard, structured work is required to become a reference point within KTM, with Lorenzo bringing a hands-on coaching approach to convert speed into race-winning consistency. All elements, including physical recovery, targeted technical work, hands-on coaching, and positive early test feedback, are being marshaled with the explicit aim of turning Viñales’s pace into sustained results for the 2026 season and beyond.
Best Bets: 2025 MotoGP Australia Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the Australian MotoGP
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
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How to Play MotoGP DFS in Wisconsin
Are you a MotoGP lover in Wisconsin looking for a new, exciting experience? We highly recommend Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). DFS allows you to compete against other MotoGP lovers in highly engaging contests, adding to the excitement of watching MotoGP races and events. If you are tired of the limited retail sportsbooks in Wisconsin, you …
Quartararo Denies Honda Deal After Sepang Setbacks
Reports before the first official 2026 pre-season test at Sepang claimed Fabio Quartararo had signed a two-year deal to join Honda from 2027. However, the rider publicly denied a completed agreement, while confirming HRC remained one of the options he was considering. The Sepang test itself was disruptive. Quartararo crashed on day one, broke a finger, and missed the remainder of that session, then encountered an engine problem Yamaha could not fix during the test. Yamaha also missed running after an unexpected engine issue described by team management as something they had “never had” before, as Alex Rins posted Yamaha’s best finish (12th). Team sporting director Massimo Meregalli said the Sepang incident did not change decisions on Quartararo’s future and characterized the interruption as a delay that pushed parts of the negotiation and testing program toward the next test.
Yamaha acknowledged it had reduced engine revs as a protective measure while continuing the development of its new V4, and planned to complete unfinished work during the upcoming Buriram test. The manufacturer emphasized continuity of its V4 program and insisted contract talks over 2027 were proceeding despite the Sepang interruption. Quartararo himself denied reports he had already signed for Honda even as questions about Yamaha’s pace of development and testing reliability intensified. Media reports and team comments linked the technical setbacks at Yamaha with increased speculation over the rider market, rather than presenting any confirmed move.
Honda presented a contrasting picture of forward momentum at Sepang. Team manager Alberto Puig praised Quartararo as “fantastic,” highlighted steady technical progress at HRC, including a lighter bike and improved engine response. The former rider cautioned that immediate wins could not be guaranteed. Joan Mir set the fastest time on day two, in what was reported as the quickest Honda lap around Sepang, and described the current RC213V as the best bike he had ridden, adding weight to Honda’s on-track gains. Puig repeatedly denied that anything for 2027 had been decided, and said Honda would prioritize its current roster while seeking riders who were both fast and intelligent. He noted that Johann Zarco and Diogo Moreira were already locked in with LCR through 2027, leaving factory-team seats contested between Mir and Luca Marini. Puig framed the 2026 contract season as chaotic and said on-track results and the evolving rule environment would shape final decisions once the season got underway.
Stewards demote Marquez for forcing Acosta wide
Pedro Acosta was declared the winner of the opening Sprint at the Thailand GP in Buriram after race stewards penalized Marc Márquez one position for forcing Acosta wide at the final corner. Márquez accepted the one-place drop in parc fermé following steward Simon Crafar’s decision, promoting Acosta to victory on the official results — Acosta’s first MotoGP win in any format, achieved at the season opener of his third campaign.
Marco Bezzecchi had dominated the weekend, topping practice sessions and setting a practice lap record of 1:28.526 before taking pole with a 1:28.652 in qualifying. He suffered two crashes over the weekend, including a heavy Q2 tumble that deployed his airbag and left him sore, and he crashed from the lead in the Sprint while attempting to open a gap; that incident removed him from contention and left Acosta and Márquez to duel for victory.
Acosta executed a decisive pass on the penultimate lap and Márquez lunged back at the final corner; after a stewards’ review the late lunge was judged to have forced Acosta wide, triggering Márquez’s demotion. Raúl Fernández finished third on the road, roughly half a second behind the leading pair, while Ai Ogura recovered to fourth. Jorge Martín crossed fifth on the road but faced an eight-second sanction for a suspected tire-pressure infringement that could alter the official finishing order; that penalty remained under review at the time of reporting, and Ducati team boss Davide Tardozzi called the sanction “unfair.” The 13-lap Buriram Sprint produced a landmark early-season victory for Acosta after an eventful qualifying and sprint day.
Viñales Hires Jorge Lorenzo to Convert Pace into Titles
Maverick Viñales announced at the KTM/Tech3 KTM 2026 launch that he has hired three-time champion Jorge Lorenzo as his performance coach. The formal partnership is formed to turn Viñales’s clear, raw pace into a sustained title challenge. Lorenzo’s remit covers technical areas such as throttle management, braking, race-specific preparation, and setting concrete, measurable goals; he is expected to join Viñales for testing and early races and has already been working closely with him since being brought in late in the previous season. Viñales said discussions about working together began after his double win at the 2024 Grand Prix of the Americas, though family timing delayed his ability to commit full-time. The hire represents a notable personnel change at Tech3 KTM and a pragmatic reconciliation between two former rivals who have moved from public barbs to a close, performance-focused working relationship.
Viñales also confirmed he has recovered from the Sachsenring shoulder injury that disrupted his 2025 campaign and missed the second half of that season. He reports he has regained weight, up 13 pounds from a previous benchmark of 134 pounds. In addition, the Red Bull Athlete Performance Center has confirmed his power has returned, and he expects to be fully fit for the upcoming Sepang test. Winter work has targeted specific weaknesses. Lorenzo has pushed wet sessions and 600cc training to improve sliding technique and rear-tire use, while Viñales and his engineers have focused on reducing rear shaking and improving cornering. After the first test, Viñales received positive feedback from Pedro Acosta and plans to use the pre-season tests to provide development input and validate measurable progress.
The partnership is presented as both an immediate performance aid and a potential stepping stone toward longer-term moves. Spanish outlet AS reported KTM is prioritizing Viñales as a possible factory signing for 2027 should Pedro Acosta leave. Viñales has emphasized that pure talent isn’t enough and that hard, structured work is required to become a reference point within KTM, with Lorenzo bringing a hands-on coaching approach to convert speed into race-winning consistency. All elements, including physical recovery, targeted technical work, hands-on coaching, and positive early test feedback, are being marshaled with the explicit aim of turning Viñales’s pace into sustained results for the 2026 season and beyond.