Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
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Player
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Fermín Aldeguer
+225
$65.00
Álex Márquez
+275
$75.00
Pedro Acosta
+333
$86.60
Francesco Bagnaia
+335
$87.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+900
$200.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+1700
$360.00
Joan Mir
+2900
$600.00
Luca Marini
+2900
$600.00
Jack Miller
+3400
$700.00
Raul Fernandez
+3400
$700.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1,000.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1,100.00
Enea Bastianini
+5400
$1,100.00
Ai Ogura
+6400
$1,300.00
Alex Rins
+9900
$2,000.00
Pol Espargaro
+9900
$2,000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+9900
$2,000.00
Michele Pirro
+14900
$3,000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+49900
$10,000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+49900
$10,000.00
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
MotoGP officials confirmed a major calendar overhaul as Liberty Media, MotoGP’s new owners, will replace Phillip Island with a planned Adelaide circuit as part of a push for more city-center events. Liberty announced Phillip Island will no longer host the Australian Grand Prix, though reports differ on the timing — the announcement cites a change “from 2027,” while some reports say Phillip Island was removed from the 2026 calendar. Some outlets suggested Adelaide could take the season-finale slot while Valencia moves into the middle of the season.
The move provoked widespread criticism from riders, commentators and fans; commentator Keith Huewen called the loss “tragic.” Organizers acknowledged the decision has created uncertainty for local communities and supporters.
Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta defended the overhaul on safety grounds, saying “safety comes first,” and citing an increased number of accidents at Phillip Island and persistent wind and rain concerns. He said safety — not location alone — will determine which venues remain on the calendar, warning that Madrid’s IFEMA layout lacked required safety conditions and that Suzuka, while “a beautiful circuit,” could not remain under current safety standards. Organizers and circuit designer Jarno Zaffelli described the planned Adelaide layout as urban but not a true street circuit: Ezpeleta called it a “safe, non-street race,” and Zaffelli said it would not be a “true street circuit.” Liberty Media has signaled further calendar changes as it modernizes and globalizes MotoGP’s schedule, identifying at least one other unnamed circuit for removal; the dispute frames a broader clash between a push for more city-center events (and some street-style proposals) and defenders of traditional high-speed venues, with venue design and safety at the center of the debate.
Marc Márquez’s stay at Ducati has shifted from likely to near-certain after his dominant 2025 season and subsequent reporting. He finished 2025 with 11 Grand Prix wins, 15 Sprint wins, eight poles, and 15 podiums, securing the world title with rounds to spare. Multiple outlets and Ducati’s presentation in Madonna di Campiglio have pushed the odds of a two-year extension to roughly 90 percent, with team and paddock comments saying Ducati aims to formalize the deal before the 2026 season, preferably after the Sepang tests in Kuala Lumpur. However, a small chance remains that he could stay with Honda.
Márquez himself has described a “9 out of 10” chance of renewal, and said he would not veto a teammate, before stating that staying with Ducati is his first option for 2027. He signalled he may delay a final decision while weighing professional and personal considerations, and confirmed that any move would be for two years. The “Ant of Cervera” noted that manufacturers are increasingly shaping rider placements, and said he is targeting a return to full fitness after the right-shoulder injury that ended his 2025 campaign.
Ducati’s push to lock Márquez in is already affecting its current lineup. Francesco Bagnaia, who struggled in 2025 and finished fifth in the standings, is under pressure, with reports suggesting a likely salary cut. It is also rumored that he’s considering offers from Honda or Yamaha if Ducati changes its pairing. The factory is publicly evaluating candidates for the other 2027 seat, with Pedro Acosta frequently named as the frontrunner. Acosta has been described as “very keen” to join Ducati, and the factory is said to reciprocate. Claims that Acosta has already been signed for 2027 circulated after comments from Massimo Rivola, and outlets have also mentioned Nicolò Bulega as a conditional option should he succeed in World Superbike. An Acosta arrival would reshape Ducati’s long-term pairing and could create the manufacturer’s first all-Spanish lineup, as the team balances sporting needs and commercial pressures while defending the title.
Those Ducati decisions are reverberating across the MotoGP market. Pundits and teams view Márquez’s signature as a pivotal trigger for a domino effect that could reconfigure seats involving riders such as Fabio Quartararo, Joan Mir, and Maverick Viñales. Marco Bezzecchi is widely expected to remain at Aprilia. Honda, having lost the prospect of Márquez’s return, is reported to be preparing an aggressive recruitment response described in the paddock as a “big, fat chequebook.” The Japanese outfit is said to be targeting names such as Pedro Acosta and David Alonso and, if necessary, promoting talent like Diogo Moreira from within. Journalists are also discussing retention or reshuffle possibilities for riders, including Luca Marini and Johann Zarco. With most top contracts expiring at the end of 2026 and new technical regulations due in 2027, teams and manufacturers are moving quickly; several commentators expect the two or three most sought-after 2027 deals to be settled well before the season opener in Buriram, setting the stage for an active silly season ahead of the 2026 season.
The 2024 MotoGP season is off to a dramatic start after a wild Portuguese Grand Prix that saw Pramac’s Jorge Martin dominate from start to finish while defending champion Francesco Bagnaia crashed out after colliding with Marc Marquez. Meanwhile, rookie sensation Pedro Acosta scored a stunning maiden MotoGP podium in just his second race. With …
The town of Cervera in Spain holds under 10,000 inhabitants, yet it’s produced the current leader and second-placed rider in the Championship. Marc and Alex Marquez are owning the circuit this year and lead the MotoGP Netherlands 2025 pre-event odds. Meanwhile, Francesco Bagania is hunting his fourth straight victory at Assen, after setting the all …
Best Bets: 2025 MotoGP Australia Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Table of Contents
Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
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Schedule and How to Watch the Australian MotoGP
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Related Posts
Liberty Media drops Phillip Island for Adelaide circuit
MotoGP officials confirmed a major calendar overhaul as Liberty Media, MotoGP’s new owners, will replace Phillip Island with a planned Adelaide circuit as part of a push for more city-center events. Liberty announced Phillip Island will no longer host the Australian Grand Prix, though reports differ on the timing — the announcement cites a change “from 2027,” while some reports say Phillip Island was removed from the 2026 calendar. Some outlets suggested Adelaide could take the season-finale slot while Valencia moves into the middle of the season.
The move provoked widespread criticism from riders, commentators and fans; commentator Keith Huewen called the loss “tragic.” Organizers acknowledged the decision has created uncertainty for local communities and supporters.
Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta defended the overhaul on safety grounds, saying “safety comes first,” and citing an increased number of accidents at Phillip Island and persistent wind and rain concerns. He said safety — not location alone — will determine which venues remain on the calendar, warning that Madrid’s IFEMA layout lacked required safety conditions and that Suzuka, while “a beautiful circuit,” could not remain under current safety standards. Organizers and circuit designer Jarno Zaffelli described the planned Adelaide layout as urban but not a true street circuit: Ezpeleta called it a “safe, non-street race,” and Zaffelli said it would not be a “true street circuit.” Liberty Media has signaled further calendar changes as it modernizes and globalizes MotoGP’s schedule, identifying at least one other unnamed circuit for removal; the dispute frames a broader clash between a push for more city-center events (and some street-style proposals) and defenders of traditional high-speed venues, with venue design and safety at the center of the debate.
Marc Márquez Nears Two-Year Renewal With Ducati After 2025 Title
Marc Márquez’s stay at Ducati has shifted from likely to near-certain after his dominant 2025 season and subsequent reporting. He finished 2025 with 11 Grand Prix wins, 15 Sprint wins, eight poles, and 15 podiums, securing the world title with rounds to spare. Multiple outlets and Ducati’s presentation in Madonna di Campiglio have pushed the odds of a two-year extension to roughly 90 percent, with team and paddock comments saying Ducati aims to formalize the deal before the 2026 season, preferably after the Sepang tests in Kuala Lumpur. However, a small chance remains that he could stay with Honda.
Márquez himself has described a “9 out of 10” chance of renewal, and said he would not veto a teammate, before stating that staying with Ducati is his first option for 2027. He signalled he may delay a final decision while weighing professional and personal considerations, and confirmed that any move would be for two years. The “Ant of Cervera” noted that manufacturers are increasingly shaping rider placements, and said he is targeting a return to full fitness after the right-shoulder injury that ended his 2025 campaign.
Ducati’s push to lock Márquez in is already affecting its current lineup. Francesco Bagnaia, who struggled in 2025 and finished fifth in the standings, is under pressure, with reports suggesting a likely salary cut. It is also rumored that he’s considering offers from Honda or Yamaha if Ducati changes its pairing. The factory is publicly evaluating candidates for the other 2027 seat, with Pedro Acosta frequently named as the frontrunner. Acosta has been described as “very keen” to join Ducati, and the factory is said to reciprocate. Claims that Acosta has already been signed for 2027 circulated after comments from Massimo Rivola, and outlets have also mentioned Nicolò Bulega as a conditional option should he succeed in World Superbike. An Acosta arrival would reshape Ducati’s long-term pairing and could create the manufacturer’s first all-Spanish lineup, as the team balances sporting needs and commercial pressures while defending the title.
Those Ducati decisions are reverberating across the MotoGP market. Pundits and teams view Márquez’s signature as a pivotal trigger for a domino effect that could reconfigure seats involving riders such as Fabio Quartararo, Joan Mir, and Maverick Viñales. Marco Bezzecchi is widely expected to remain at Aprilia. Honda, having lost the prospect of Márquez’s return, is reported to be preparing an aggressive recruitment response described in the paddock as a “big, fat chequebook.” The Japanese outfit is said to be targeting names such as Pedro Acosta and David Alonso and, if necessary, promoting talent like Diogo Moreira from within. Journalists are also discussing retention or reshuffle possibilities for riders, including Luca Marini and Johann Zarco. With most top contracts expiring at the end of 2026 and new technical regulations due in 2027, teams and manufacturers are moving quickly; several commentators expect the two or three most sought-after 2027 deals to be settled well before the season opener in Buriram, setting the stage for an active silly season ahead of the 2026 season.
Best Bets: 2024 MotoGP Grand Prix of the Americas Pre-Event Odds Analysis
The 2024 MotoGP season is off to a dramatic start after a wild Portuguese Grand Prix that saw Pramac’s Jorge Martin dominate from start to finish while defending champion Francesco Bagnaia crashed out after colliding with Marc Marquez. Meanwhile, rookie sensation Pedro Acosta scored a stunning maiden MotoGP podium in just his second race. With …
Best Bets: MotoGP Netherlands 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
The town of Cervera in Spain holds under 10,000 inhabitants, yet it’s produced the current leader and second-placed rider in the Championship. Marc and Alex Marquez are owning the circuit this year and lead the MotoGP Netherlands 2025 pre-event odds. Meanwhile, Francesco Bagania is hunting his fourth straight victory at Assen, after setting the all …