Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
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Player
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Fermín Aldeguer
+225
$65.00
Álex Márquez
+275
$75.00
Pedro Acosta
+333
$86.60
Francesco Bagnaia
+335
$87.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+900
$200.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+1700
$360.00
Joan Mir
+2900
$600.00
Luca Marini
+2900
$600.00
Jack Miller
+3400
$700.00
Raul Fernandez
+3400
$700.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1,000.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1,100.00
Enea Bastianini
+5400
$1,100.00
Ai Ogura
+6400
$1,300.00
Alex Rins
+9900
$2,000.00
Pol Espargaro
+9900
$2,000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+9900
$2,000.00
Michele Pirro
+14900
$3,000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+49900
$10,000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+49900
$10,000.00
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
KTM arrived at the Sepang test with a revised 2026 RC16 package, featuring a new chassis concept, updated aero parts, and a new swingarm. The team opted to split its factory program between development and consolidation. The strategy paid early dividends after the team completed the opening day as the second-fastest on the timesheets behind Ducati, with Tech3’s Maverick Viñales posting a late 1:57.295 that underlined early pace. KTM used the day to validate the new parts. The team ran a dual approach with Pedro Acosta concentrated on chassis and aerodynamic development, while Brad Binder followed a more conservative program aimed at regaining outright speed.
Acosta, 21, described the new shortened chassis as “promising” and said the configuration was “working,” but he also reported unusual vibrations from the very first lap and limited his opening-day running. He spent his morning exploring chassis setups, used more of his tire allocation than planned, completed an early medium-tire run before switching to softs, and finished 15th on the combined times. He left the day, planning further aero work to improve turning and front-end stability. Acosta’s program prioritized feel and component evaluation over time-attack laps, and KTM noted these early mechanical and stability signals while managing run plans.
Binder, 30, posted consistent lap times around 2:00.2–2:00.3 and initially rode the same chassis he used in Valencia, reporting little chattering as he worked on pace. He also compared the new swingarm against the older design to assess differences, while Acosta focused on aero and chassis feel. Both riders and the factory expected Wednesday to be the main day for further aerodynamic and component evaluations, and KTM said a more definitive assessment of tire behavior and the updated package should become clearer towards the end of the test. The opening session, therefore, underscored KTM’s two-track strategy and highlighted the specific areas, including front-end stability, vibrations, and tire behavior, that the team needs to address before the season.
Monster Energy became Aprilia Racing’s multi-year MotoGP sponsor, with the partnership announced during the Grand Prix of Italy and set to launch in 2026, and Monster slated to assume official title-sponsor status in 2027. Aprilia described Monster as its first-ever title sponsor and the deal ends Aprilia’s run without a title partner since the squad became a full factory team in 2022. The agreement was presented publicly at the Italian Grand Prix; one report said it took effect immediately on signing, while other reports described a formal planned start date in 2026. No financial terms or detailed operational arrangements were disclosed.
Under the agreement Monster will serve as Aprilia’s main sponsor in 2026 and its logo, including the three-claw mark, will appear on the factory RS-GP machines, riders’ leathers and team assets, with the branding due to start appearing at the Mugello round. Aprilia CEO Massimo Rivola called the deal a milestone for the Noale-based manufacturer. Monster Senior Vice President Mitch Covington said the company sees MotoGP as a key global platform and that the partnership advances Monster’s MotoGP presence. The announcement coincided with Jorge Martín putting his personal Red Bull sponsorship on hold and Red Bull branding disappearing from his Aprilia gear; reports said Monster will join Martín’s Aprilia team as the title partner.
The sponsorship comes as Aprilia enjoyed a period of sporting dominance, opening 2026 with three straight Grand Prix wins, reaching the podium in each of the season’s first five races and recording a 1-2-3 at the French Grand Prix. Marco Bezzecchi and Jorge Martín combined for multiple wins and were first and second in the 2026 rider standings, separated by 15 points, while Aprilia led the manufacturer and team standings. The deal strengthens Aprilia’s commercial positioning at a moment of heightened sporting visibility. The announcement also arrived amid wider commercial speculation, since Monster currently remains Yamaha’s factory title sponsor and Yamaha’s arrangement with Monster has been the subject of reporting that it could change around 2027.
Do you ever find yourself caught up in the thrill of MotoGP but wonder whether you’re making the right decisions? MotoGP betting has increased in popularity, especially in the 2023 season finale. The finale attracted bettors and fans worldwide. Bettors are learning to take advantage of such events and invest in responsible betting. Responsible betting …
Toprak Razgatlioglu’s adaptation to the Yamaha M1 has been hampered by rear-tyre issues; he called the Michelin tyres the “real problem” slowing his switch from World Superbikes, highlighting rear grip and acceleration as his main challenges after Brazil. He said the M1’s greater power, aerodynamics and electronics make familiar tracks feel different. Razgatlioglu has improved since Thailand but is still searching for a narrow performance window on the rear tyre and warned that Michelin’s use of a stiffer carcass in Thailand and Brazil, and the planned reversion to the standard carcass for the US GP at COTA, will complicate his learning. Tyre management and suspension/setup choices will be central at Austin, where bumps and a physical first sector may require a softer setup to protect rear grip.
Results in the opening rounds underlined those difficulties: Razgatlioglu failed to score points in Thailand and Brazil, with best race finishes of 17th in both grands prix. He crashed in the Buriram sprint, finished 18th in the Goiânia sprint and was 17th in the Brazilian GP after reaching Q2 and qualifying 12th. He said the sequence of results left him “really down” after Saturday in Brazil. Razgatlioglu has prior experience at COTA — he first raced the circuit in the Red Bull Rookies Cup in 2013 and rode it last year on BMW’s M1000RR — but he said the M1 changes how the track feels.
Support staff and industry figures say the start is technically understandable and that he is improving. Coach Sylvain Guintoli said Razgatlioglu was “getting the hang of” the Yamaha M1 after pre-qualifying at COTA: Razgatlioglu posted a 2:02.373 lap to finish 18th overall and was the third-fastest Yamaha behind Fabio Quartararo and Jack Miller, while Ducati’s Marc Márquez topped the session with a 2:00.927. Guintoli pointed to Friday race simulations as evidence Razgatlioglu is learning to manage throttle inputs, “hook the bike up” and improve traction, while stressing that track temperature and overall tyre grip remain key variables. Ducati test rider Michele Pirro said Razgatlioglu’s difficult start “makes me smile,” noting the switch to the V4 YZR‑M1 requires learning ride‑height devices, increased aerodynamics and running Michelins instead of Pirellis. Pirro warned that being seven to eight tenths off the pace effectively places a rider at the back and that gains often come in small fractions — sometimes half a tenth per corner — but expressed confidence Razgatlioglu can improve as he gains experience with the bike, the Michelin tyres and MotoGP fine‑tuning.
Best Bets: 2025 MotoGP Australia Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Three weeks ago, Marc Marquez was celebrating his seventh MotoGP World Championship. Fast forward to today, and he’s still in the headlines, but this time for the unfortunate fact that the Spaniard won’t be on the starting grid in Melbourne on Sunday. Marquez’s absence has opened the door to a new favorite in the pre-event odds for Australia. Fermin Aldeguer heads the lineup after becoming the second-youngest rider in MotoGP history to win a Grand Prix two weeks ago. Discover who else is in the hunt for the checkered flag Down Under in our event preview.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the Australian MotoGP
MotoGP takes over the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne this weekend, with a sprint and a Grand Prix on the cards. Riders will line up for the short race on Saturday, October 18, at midnight for those on the East Coast. Prepare for another late night on Saturday, as the grid assembles for the main event at 11:00 pm EDT. Follow the robust program this weekend from Australia live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Australia
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The absence of Marc Marquez has opened up the betting field for the first race this campaign. Bettors have their eye on the youngster, Fermin Aldeguer, who is fresh off his triumph in Southeast Asia. He’s a talented rider and a future star, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the pressure of the favorite tag. The rookie showed what he’s capable of, but his consistency also worries us, as he averages 9.6 in his last five races, despite the victory a fortnight ago.
Alex Marquez will be licking his lips at the thought of a third MotoGP victory this season. He is one of the few riders who offered any resistance to Marc this year, and his recent form is impressive, with three podiums in four races. Another rider who challenged the older Marquez this campaign is Marco Bezzecchi, who secured five rostrums in his last 10 races. There is the small matter of his two DNFs in the previous four meetings, but the Italian is one of only six riders to claim a checkered flag this year. Bezzecchi also started the weekend strong in Melbourne, topping the Practice Session on Friday afternoon.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick
We are sticking with the Marquez name for our expert pick to prevail in Australia. However, this time we’re handing the reins over to Alex Marquez, who starts as the most in-form rider on the grid, averaging 5.4 in his last five races. He’s collected three podiums in that period, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Catalonia. Alex lines up at +275 for the Grand Prix, potentially paying out $75.00 for a $20 wager.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
With the 2025 MotoGP Champion Marc Marquez out of the equation who will prevail Down Under? Can his younger brother pickup from where he left off, or will we see another strong showing from the Spanish rookie Fermin Aldeguer?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Liqui Moly Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Related Posts
KTM Validates 2026 RC16 Updates, Ends P2 Behind Ducati
KTM arrived at the Sepang test with a revised 2026 RC16 package, featuring a new chassis concept, updated aero parts, and a new swingarm. The team opted to split its factory program between development and consolidation. The strategy paid early dividends after the team completed the opening day as the second-fastest on the timesheets behind Ducati, with Tech3’s Maverick Viñales posting a late 1:57.295 that underlined early pace. KTM used the day to validate the new parts. The team ran a dual approach with Pedro Acosta concentrated on chassis and aerodynamic development, while Brad Binder followed a more conservative program aimed at regaining outright speed.
Acosta, 21, described the new shortened chassis as “promising” and said the configuration was “working,” but he also reported unusual vibrations from the very first lap and limited his opening-day running. He spent his morning exploring chassis setups, used more of his tire allocation than planned, completed an early medium-tire run before switching to softs, and finished 15th on the combined times. He left the day, planning further aero work to improve turning and front-end stability. Acosta’s program prioritized feel and component evaluation over time-attack laps, and KTM noted these early mechanical and stability signals while managing run plans.
Binder, 30, posted consistent lap times around 2:00.2–2:00.3 and initially rode the same chassis he used in Valencia, reporting little chattering as he worked on pace. He also compared the new swingarm against the older design to assess differences, while Acosta focused on aero and chassis feel. Both riders and the factory expected Wednesday to be the main day for further aerodynamic and component evaluations, and KTM said a more definitive assessment of tire behavior and the updated package should become clearer towards the end of the test. The opening session, therefore, underscored KTM’s two-track strategy and highlighted the specific areas, including front-end stability, vibrations, and tire behavior, that the team needs to address before the season.
Monster to be Aprilia’s main MotoGP sponsor in 2026
Monster Energy became Aprilia Racing’s multi-year MotoGP sponsor, with the partnership announced during the Grand Prix of Italy and set to launch in 2026, and Monster slated to assume official title-sponsor status in 2027. Aprilia described Monster as its first-ever title sponsor and the deal ends Aprilia’s run without a title partner since the squad became a full factory team in 2022. The agreement was presented publicly at the Italian Grand Prix; one report said it took effect immediately on signing, while other reports described a formal planned start date in 2026. No financial terms or detailed operational arrangements were disclosed.
Under the agreement Monster will serve as Aprilia’s main sponsor in 2026 and its logo, including the three-claw mark, will appear on the factory RS-GP machines, riders’ leathers and team assets, with the branding due to start appearing at the Mugello round. Aprilia CEO Massimo Rivola called the deal a milestone for the Noale-based manufacturer. Monster Senior Vice President Mitch Covington said the company sees MotoGP as a key global platform and that the partnership advances Monster’s MotoGP presence. The announcement coincided with Jorge Martín putting his personal Red Bull sponsorship on hold and Red Bull branding disappearing from his Aprilia gear; reports said Monster will join Martín’s Aprilia team as the title partner.
The sponsorship comes as Aprilia enjoyed a period of sporting dominance, opening 2026 with three straight Grand Prix wins, reaching the podium in each of the season’s first five races and recording a 1-2-3 at the French Grand Prix. Marco Bezzecchi and Jorge Martín combined for multiple wins and were first and second in the 2026 rider standings, separated by 15 points, while Aprilia led the manufacturer and team standings. The deal strengthens Aprilia’s commercial positioning at a moment of heightened sporting visibility. The announcement also arrived amid wider commercial speculation, since Monster currently remains Yamaha’s factory title sponsor and Yamaha’s arrangement with Monster has been the subject of reporting that it could change around 2027.
How Can You Bet Responsibly On MotoGP?
Do you ever find yourself caught up in the thrill of MotoGP but wonder whether you’re making the right decisions? MotoGP betting has increased in popularity, especially in the 2023 season finale. The finale attracted bettors and fans worldwide. Bettors are learning to take advantage of such events and invest in responsible betting. Responsible betting …
Michelin carcass switch hinders Razgatlioglu at COTA
Toprak Razgatlioglu’s adaptation to the Yamaha M1 has been hampered by rear-tyre issues; he called the Michelin tyres the “real problem” slowing his switch from World Superbikes, highlighting rear grip and acceleration as his main challenges after Brazil. He said the M1’s greater power, aerodynamics and electronics make familiar tracks feel different. Razgatlioglu has improved since Thailand but is still searching for a narrow performance window on the rear tyre and warned that Michelin’s use of a stiffer carcass in Thailand and Brazil, and the planned reversion to the standard carcass for the US GP at COTA, will complicate his learning. Tyre management and suspension/setup choices will be central at Austin, where bumps and a physical first sector may require a softer setup to protect rear grip.
Results in the opening rounds underlined those difficulties: Razgatlioglu failed to score points in Thailand and Brazil, with best race finishes of 17th in both grands prix. He crashed in the Buriram sprint, finished 18th in the Goiânia sprint and was 17th in the Brazilian GP after reaching Q2 and qualifying 12th. He said the sequence of results left him “really down” after Saturday in Brazil. Razgatlioglu has prior experience at COTA — he first raced the circuit in the Red Bull Rookies Cup in 2013 and rode it last year on BMW’s M1000RR — but he said the M1 changes how the track feels.
Support staff and industry figures say the start is technically understandable and that he is improving. Coach Sylvain Guintoli said Razgatlioglu was “getting the hang of” the Yamaha M1 after pre-qualifying at COTA: Razgatlioglu posted a 2:02.373 lap to finish 18th overall and was the third-fastest Yamaha behind Fabio Quartararo and Jack Miller, while Ducati’s Marc Márquez topped the session with a 2:00.927. Guintoli pointed to Friday race simulations as evidence Razgatlioglu is learning to manage throttle inputs, “hook the bike up” and improve traction, while stressing that track temperature and overall tyre grip remain key variables. Ducati test rider Michele Pirro said Razgatlioglu’s difficult start “makes me smile,” noting the switch to the V4 YZR‑M1 requires learning ride‑height devices, increased aerodynamics and running Michelins instead of Pirellis. Pirro warned that being seven to eight tenths off the pace effectively places a rider at the back and that gains often come in small fractions — sometimes half a tenth per corner — but expressed confidence Razgatlioglu can improve as he gains experience with the bike, the Michelin tyres and MotoGP fine‑tuning.