Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Budds Creek National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Budds Creek National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Hunter Lawrence ended a near-perfect run in the last round, finishing off the podium for the first time this season. The result catapulted his brother Jett Lawrence to the top of the standings with only two events to spare. Markets are now bullish on Jettson, who leads the Pro Motocross Budds Creek National pre-event odds to bag top honors this weekend. Away from the favorites, there is plenty of value to be had across the eight betting markets on offer for round 10 of the campaign.

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Schedule and How to Watch MX Budds Creek

The second-to-last round of the 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Championship hits the dirt this Saturday, August 22, in Mechanicsville. Riders are on a mission to tame the series leader, Jett Lawrence, who is closing in on his third title in four years. Racers are set to take on the Budds Creek Motocross Park for qualifying before lunch, and line up for Moto #1 at 2:15 pm EDT. The day concludes with Moto #2 at 5:15 pm local time, which you can watch on NBC. Track the latest schedule and results from Maryland on the dedicated Budds Creek event page.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Live SMX Odds

Best Bets & Odds for 450 Class Motocross Budds Creek National

Odds Without Hunter and Jett Lawrence

After topping the midfield for three consecutive rounds, Haiden Deegan was unseated as the “best of the rest” at Unadilla. The rookie was overtaken by Jorge Prado, who finished second overall and topped the results sheet without the Lawrence siblings. It was the third time in 2026 that the Spaniard finished ahead of the non-Lawrence riders. But despite the result, he still plays second fiddle to “Danger Boy,” who has racked up five midfield triumphs in the opening nine rounds. The duo are the only two riders on the start sheet to have challenged the Australian brothers this campaign.

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Rider
Odds Without Hunter/Jett
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
-125
$36.00
Jorge Prado
+299
$79.80
Garrett Marchbanks
+739
$167.80
R.J. Hampshire
+884
$196.80
Eli Tomac
+1136
$247.20
Cooper Webb
+2444
$508.80
Malcolm Stewart
+3934
$806.80
Jed Beaton
+3934
$806.80
Dylan Ferrandis
+3934
$806.80
Justin Barcia
+3934
$806.80
Aaron Plessinger
+3934
$806.80
Mikkel Haarup
+8775
$1,775.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+8775
$1,775.00
Benny Bloss
+8976
$1,815.20
Mitchell Oldenburg
+8976
$1,815.20
Grant Harlan
+8976
$1,815.20
Vinny Luhovey
+8976
$1,815.20
Tyler Stepek
+8976
$1,815.20
Evan Johnson
+8976
$1,815.20
Tyler Walborn
+9187
$1,857.40
Luca Marsalisi
+9187
$1,857.40
Jeremy Hand
+9187
$1,857.40
Zach Osborne
+9187
$1,857.40
Stephen Rubini
+9187
$1,857.40
John Short
+9187
$1,857.40
Ricci Randanella
+9187
$1,857.40
Michael Lennon
+9409
$1,901.80
Jordon Smith
+9409
$1,901.80
Blake Hoag
+9409
$1,901.80
Lorenzo Locurcio
+9409
$1,901.80
Christian Craig
+9641
$1,948.20
Mark Fineis
+9641
$1,948.20
Jack Chambers
+9641
$1,948.20
Devin Salo
+9641
$1,948.20
Gage Stine
+9641
$1,948.20
Grant Hoffman
+9884
$1,996.80
Mitchell Harrison
+9884
$1,996.80

Moto #1 Holeshot Odds

Unadilla upended Hunter Lawrence’s flawless season, as he sauntered home in 39th in Moto #2. The result has lengthened his odds for top honors in the Moto #1 showdown at Budds Creek, which is good news for bettors. The older Lawrence offers excellent value for money at +300, despite registering seven holeshots in 18 races this campaign.

The younger Lawrence, Jett, suits up as the favorite to enter the first corner ahead of the pack, but trails his brother with five this MX term. Second favorite Jorge Prado has only notched up two holeshots in the Pro Motocross Championship, but has proved he’s quick off the mark, adding to the six he bagged in the Supercross Championship earlier in the year. Momentum is on Haiden Deegan’s side, as he’s secured the holeshot in the last two Moto #1 races, his only two of the term.

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Rider
Moto #1 Holeshot Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+231
$66.20
Jorge Prado
+297
$79.40
Hunter Lawrence
+300
$80.00
Haiden Deegan
+350
$90.00
R.J. Hampshire
+1500
$320.00
Eli Tomac
+2001
$420.20
Garrett Marchbanks
+2112
$442.40
Cornelius Tøndel
+3244
$668.80
Jed Beaton
+3336
$687.20
Dylan Ferrandis
+4305
$881.00
Aaron Plessinger
+5002
$1,020.40
Mikkel Haarup
+5191
$1,058.20
Cooper Webb
+7900
$1,600.00
Zach Osborne
+9515
$1,923.00
Malcolm Stewart
+12558
$2,531.60
Jordon Smith
+12887
$2,597.40
Jack Chambers
+12887
$2,597.40
Gage Stine
+12887
$2,597.40
Michael Lennon
+12887
$2,597.40
Noah Geyer
+12887
$2,597.40
Colt Nichols
+13058
$2,631.60
John Short
+13058
$2,631.60
Evan Johnson
+13233
$2,666.60
Vinny Luhovey
+13233
$2,666.60
Tyler Walborn
+13233
$2,666.60
Tyler Stepek
+13414
$2,702.80
Christian Craig
+13414
$2,702.80
Mitchell Harrison
+13414
$2,702.80
Blake Hoag
+13414
$2,702.80
Justin Barcia
+13414
$2,702.80
Benny Bloss
+13599
$2,739.80
Mark Fineis
+13599
$2,739.80
Jeremy Hand
+13599
$2,739.80
Mitchell Oldenburg
+13599
$2,739.80
Devin Salo
+13599
$2,739.80
Luca Marsalisi
+13599
$2,739.80
Ricci Randanella
+13599
$2,739.80
Grant Harlan
+13599
$2,739.80
Stephen Rubini
+13599
$2,739.80

Moto #1 Winner

Jett Lawrence enters Moto #1 at Budds Creek as the favorite at +100 after racking up four triumphs in the open race this term.  He’s only entered Victory Lane in Moto #1 twice in the last five rounds, with his brother bagging the remaining three. Hunter Lawrence continues to provide value-for-money to bettors, starting this market at +200, even though he’s prevailed in five of the nine opening races this year.

The older Lawrence’s stocks plummeted after a horror show in the second race at Unadilla, but it was only the fourth time he has finished outside of the top three in 18 races this MX season. No other riders have captured a checkered flag besides the Australians, but Jorge Prado and Haiden Deegan have come closest, finishing second on multiple occasions. The Spaniard earned his fourth runner-up in the last round, while Deegan has claimed three in the past four rounds.

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Rider
Moto #1 Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+100
$40.00
Hunter Lawrence
+200
$60.00
Haiden Deegan
+300
$80.00
Jorge Prado
+775
$175.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+1601
$340.20
R.J. Hampshire
+2001
$420.20
Eli Tomac
+2292
$478.40
Jed Beaton
+4826
$985.20
Aaron Plessinger
+7476
$1,515.20
Cooper Webb
+9246
$1,869.20
Dylan Ferrandis
+9609
$1,941.80
Malcolm Stewart
+14393
$2,898.60
Mikkel Haarup
+16029
$3,225.80
Cornelius Tøndel
+16029
$3,225.80
Justin Barcia
+16029
$3,225.80
Christian Craig
+16293
$3,278.60
Benny Bloss
+16293
$3,278.60
Blake Hoag
+16567
$3,333.40
Evan Johnson
+16567
$3,333.40
Zach Osborne
+16567
$3,333.40
Tyler Stepek
+16567
$3,333.40
Grant Harlan
+16567
$3,333.40
Mitchell Oldenburg
+16849
$3,389.80
Luca Marsalisi
+16849
$3,389.80
Ricci Randanella
+16849
$3,389.80
Lorenzo Locurcio
+16849
$3,389.80
Mark Fineis
+16849
$3,389.80
Vinny Luhovey
+17141
$3,448.20
Gage Stine
+17141
$3,448.20
Jordon Smith
+17141
$3,448.20
Grant Hoffman
+17444
$3,508.80
Stephen Rubini
+17444
$3,508.80
Jeremy Hand
+17444
$3,508.80
Michael Lennon
+17444
$3,508.80
John Short
+17444
$3,508.80
Devin Salo
+17444
$3,508.80
Mitchell Harrison
+17444
$3,508.80
Jack Chambers
+17757
$3,571.40
Tyler Walborn
+17757
$3,571.40

Odds for Event Winner

Jett Lawrence continues to dominate the odds as we look ahead to the overall event winner. He now leads the Championship after bagging his fourth triumph of the campaign, his second in the past four rounds. His older brother once again provides the best bang for buck, lining up at +175 in the pre-event odds. Despite a lacklustre return Undilla, Hunter Lawrence is still the winningest rider this term with five trips inside of Victory Lane.

Haiden Deegan continues to impress in his 450 debut off the back of four consecutive podiums. However, the youngster is yet to claim a checkered flag, carrying a season’s best return of second at Spring Creek. Jorge Prado remains the only other rider to challenge the Lawrence dynasty this year after registering his third runner-up last time out.

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Rider
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-149
$33.42
Hunter Lawrence
+175
$55.00
Haiden Deegan
+350
$90.00
Jorge Prado
+900
$200.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+2001
$420.20
R.J. Hampshire
+2363
$492.60
Eli Tomac
+2996
$619.20
Cooper Webb
+6269
$1,273.80
Malcolm Stewart
+10001
$2,020.20
Jed Beaton
+10001
$2,020.20
Dylan Ferrandis
+10001
$2,020.20
Justin Barcia
+10001
$2,020.20
Aaron Plessinger
+10001
$2,020.20
Mikkel Haarup
+22122
$4,444.40
Cornelius Tøndel
+22122
$4,444.40
Benny Bloss
+22627
$4,545.40
Mitchell Oldenburg
+22627
$4,545.40
Grant Harlan
+22627
$4,545.40
Vinny Luhovey
+22627
$4,545.40
Tyler Stepek
+22627
$4,545.40
Evan Johnson
+22627
$4,545.40
Tyler Walborn
+23156
$4,651.20
Luca Marsalisi
+23156
$4,651.20
Jeremy Hand
+23156
$4,651.20
Zach Osborne
+23156
$4,651.20
Stephen Rubini
+23156
$4,651.20
John Short
+23156
$4,651.20
Ricci Randanella
+23156
$4,651.20
Michael Lennon
+23710
$4,762.00
Jordon Smith
+23710
$4,762.00
Blake Hoag
+23710
$4,762.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+23710
$4,762.00
Christian Craig
+24290
$4,878.00
Mark Fineis
+24290
$4,878.00
Jack Chambers
+24290
$4,878.00
Devin Salo
+24290
$4,878.00
Gage Stine
+24290
$4,878.00
Grant Hoffman
+24900
$5,000.00
Mitchell Harrison
+24900
$5,000.00
Expert Pick

Even though Undilla didn’t go according to plan, we still fancy a Hunter Lawrence win at Budds Creek National. He averages 2.22 despite finishing eighth last time out and is priced at +175 to get the job done in Maryland. A $20.00 bet on the Australian stands to pay out a potential $55.00, which is worth it for the winningest rider in the field.

Odds for a Podium

The odds are short for the Lawrence brothers to finish in the top three. Jettson is yet to finish off the podium, while Hunter only has one blemish to his name. Haiden Deegan is worth a look at -119, boasting a 66.7% top-three return in nine rounds, the third most in the series. His average sits at 3.78 this term and 3.4 in the previous five rounds.

Jorge Prado is on a high after posting his third rostrum of the year. The Spaniard has remained consistent throughout and took his opportunity when Hunter faltered. The result lowered his finishing average to 3.6 in the previous five events, highlighting his threat to the podium. Garrett Marchbanks is yet to earn a top-three finish this year, but finished fourth in the last round for the second time this term. He is joined by R.J. Hampshire, who also has two fourth-place finishes in 2026.

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Rider
Podium Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-770
$22.60
Hunter Lawrence
-500
$24.00
Haiden Deegan
-119
$36.81
Jorge Prado
+150
$50.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+250
$70.00
R.J. Hampshire
+400
$100.00
Eli Tomac
+400
$100.00
Cooper Webb
+1106
$241.20
Dylan Ferrandis
+1386
$297.20
Aaron Plessinger
+1500
$320.00
Jed Beaton
+2001
$420.20
Justin Barcia
+2001
$420.20
Malcolm Stewart
+2670
$554.00
Mikkel Haarup
+5614
$1,142.80
Mark Fineis
+7419
$1,503.80
Zach Osborne
+7419
$1,503.80
Vinny Luhovey
+7419
$1,503.80
Stephen Rubini
+7476
$1,515.20
Mitchell Harrison
+7476
$1,515.20
John Short
+7534
$1,526.80
Blake Hoag
+7534
$1,526.80
Mitchell Oldenburg
+7534
$1,526.80
Tyler Stepek
+7534
$1,526.80
Devin Salo
+7534
$1,526.80
Tyler Walborn
+7592
$1,538.40
Gage Stine
+7592
$1,538.40
Jordon Smith
+7652
$1,550.40
Evan Johnson
+7652
$1,550.40
Grant Harlan
+7652
$1,550.40
Luca Marsalisi
+7652
$1,550.40
Jack Chambers
+7652
$1,550.40
Cornelius Tøndel
+7652
$1,550.40
Jeremy Hand
+7713
$1,562.60
Lorenzo Locurcio
+7713
$1,562.60
Grant Hoffman
+7774
$1,574.80
Ricci Randanella
+7837
$1,587.40
Christian Craig
+7900
$1,600.00
Benny Bloss
+7900
$1,600.00
Michael Lennon
+7965
$1,613.00

Top 5 Odds

R.J. Hampshire stands out as the value bet in the top five market after earning his third in five rounds last weekend. The Floridian has kept it tidy this campaign with a 6.22 average and has lowered that in the last five with 5.4. Garrett Marchbanks is a little on the expensive side, despite earning his fifth top-five of the year in round nine. The issue with Marchbanks is his consistency, evidenced by his 10.33 season average.

Jorge Prado is priced on the shorter side in this market, but still provides some value. The KTM rider has only missed the top five once in the last seven rounds, averaging 5.11 in MX this year. Dylan Ferrandis just missed the cut in round nine, finishing sixth, but he has two top-fives in the bag heading into Budds Creek. 

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Rider
Top 5 Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-1800
$21.11
Hunter Lawrence
-1000
$22.00
Haiden Deegan
-400
$25.00
Jorge Prado
-145
$33.79
Garrett Marchbanks
-110
$38.18
R.J. Hampshire
+125
$45.00
Eli Tomac
+160
$52.00
Cooper Webb
+550
$130.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+650
$150.00
Aaron Plessinger
+750
$170.00
Justin Barcia
+800
$180.00
Malcolm Stewart
+898
$199.60
Jed Beaton
+1200
$260.00
Mikkel Haarup
+1289
$277.80
Jordon Smith
+2855
$591.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+5345
$1,089.00
Christian Craig
+5345
$1,089.00
Benny Bloss
+5345
$1,089.00
Mark Fineis
+5345
$1,089.00
Mitchell Harrison
+5345
$1,089.00
Jeremy Hand
+5345
$1,089.00
Stephen Rubini
+5345
$1,089.00
Grant Harlan
+5345
$1,089.00
Zach Osborne
+5345
$1,089.00
John Short
+5345
$1,089.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+5345
$1,089.00
Jack Chambers
+5345
$1,089.00
Devin Salo
+5345
$1,089.00
Luca Marsalisi
+5345
$1,089.00
Tyler Stepek
+5345
$1,089.00
Gage Stine
+5345
$1,089.00
Michael Lennon
+5345
$1,089.00
Blake Hoag
+5345
$1,089.00
Mitchell Oldenburg
+5345
$1,089.00
Grant Hoffman
+5345
$1,089.00
Tyler Walborn
+5345
$1,089.00
Ricci Randanella
+5345
$1,089.00
Evan Johnson
+5345
$1,089.00

H2H Odds

Two matchups catch our eye at Budds Creek, starting with the Australian brothers. Hunter Lawrence is the underdog in his meeting with Jett, despite finishing ahead of him in five of the nine rounds. Our second standout head-to-head is Jorge Prado lineup as the longshot, against Haiden Deegan. The Spaniard has beaten the rookie four times this year, including last weekend when he crossed the line one spot ahead of Deegan.

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Matchup
Moneyline
Payout on $20
Hunter Lawrence
+113
$42.60
Jett Lawrence
-150
$33.33
Haiden Deegan
-220
$29.09
Jorge Prado
+162
$52.40
Garrett Marchbanks
-130
$35.38
R.J. Hampshire
-102
$39.61

2026 Pro Motocross Championship Futures

The Championship Futures present a different narrative compared to last week, after Jett Lawrence leapfrogged his older sibling into pole position in the standings. Jettson now leads by 10 points with two rounds to spare and has seen his odds shorten to a whopping -714 to reclaim his MX title. Hunter can still deny his younger brother, but he needs Jett’s unbroken podium run to hit a snag in Maryland on Saturday.

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Rider
Outright Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-714
$22.80
Hunter Lawrence
+419
$103.80

DFS Finishing Positions

Moto #1

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Jorge Prado
3.5
R.J. Hampshire
5.5
Eli Tomac
5.5
Garrett Marchbanks
5.5
Aaron Plessinger
9.5
Dylan Ferrandis
10.5

Overall

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
1.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Jorge Prado
3.5
R.J. Hampshire
5.5
Eli Tomac
5.5
Garrett Marchbanks
5.5
Aaron Plessinger
9.5
Dylan Ferrandis
10.5

Where to Bet on MX Budds Creek National

Bets for the Pro Motocross Budds Creek National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbets’ comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.

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