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Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Southwick National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Southwick National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Round six of the 2026 Pro Motocross Championship is here, which marks the halfway point for the series so far dominated by the Australians. This weekend, the Lawrence brothers line up for the Southwick National as the only two riders to have entered Victory Lane. Hunter tops the standings, but Jettson leads the pre-event odds ahead of the visit to Massachusetts. Belgian wunderkind Lucas Coenen also makes his second appearance after a stellar 450 debut earlier this year. Learn about the top picks in every betting market from our partner DraftKings below.

Bets for the MX Southwick can be placed with our partner sportsbooks.

In addition to traditional sports betting, the Motocross Championship offers a Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) option for the series, available exclusively on Underdog. DFS offers a new way for fans to engage with the sport, allowing them to make real money picks in a thrilling Pick’Em format. This expanding category within legal sports wagering enables Motocross enthusiasts in 30 states, including California, Utah, and Texas, where traditional sports betting is currently prohibited, to participate in the action.

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Schedule and How to Watch MX Southwick National

Pro Motocross teams move east on Saturday, July 11, for the annual Southwick National. Riders report for duty at The Wick 338 for a full-day affair, starting with qualifying in the morning and culminating with two races in the afternoon. Moto #1 is first on the start hill at 3:15 pm EDT, and Moto #2 brings the curtain down on the round from 5:30 pm to 6:05 pm local time. Find out if anyone can stop the Aussies live on Peacock, and catch the latest results on the dedicated Southwick event page.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Live SMX Odds

Best Bets & Odds for 450 Class Motocross Southwick

Moto #1 Holeshot Odds

Jorge Prado saw his holeshot stock rise after a clean sweep at RedBud a week ago. The Spaniard entered the opening corner first in both races, for his first holeshot rewards of the Pro Motocross campaign. It adds to the six that the KTM rider secured in the earlier SX Championship. One man who missed out on the Supercross proceedings was Jett Lawrence, but he’s firing in the MX format, claiming 30% of the holeshots in the opening 10 races of the term.

Jettson’s older brother, Hunter Lawrence, also enters the Southwick National with three to his name. Like Prado, Hunter enjoyed a stellar holeshot record in the Supercross edition, registering seven, more than any other rider on the grid. Mikkel Haarup and Cooper Webb cap off our holeshotters, as the duo start with one apiece after the opening five rounds.

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Rider
Holeshot Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+250
$70.00
Hunter Lawrence
+300
$80.00
Jorge Prado
+300
$80.00
Haiden Deegan
+550
$130.00
Lucas Coenen
+550
$130.00
RJ Hampshire
+1428
$305.60
Garrett Marchbanks
+1585
$337.00
Tony Cairoli
+2850
$590.00
Justin Barcia
+3000
$620.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+3498
$719.60
Mikkel Haarup
+3975
$815.00
Cooper Webb
+4352
$890.40
Cornelius Tøndel
+5647
$1,149.40
Roan Van De Moosdijk
+7526
$1,525.20
Christian Craig
+10000
$2,020.00
Valentin Guillod
+10000
$2,020.00
Justin Cokinos
+10000
$2,020.00
Benny Bloss
+10000
$2,020.00
Mitchell Harrison
+10000
$2,020.00
Jordon Smith
+10000
$2,020.00
Mark Fineis
+10000
$2,020.00
Blake Hoag
+10000
$2,020.00
Ashton Arruda
+10000
$2,020.00
Cody Walker
+10000
$2,020.00
Joey Crown
+10000
$2,020.00
Gage Hulsey
+10000
$2,020.00
Grant Harlan
+10000
$2,020.00
Johnathan Stasukelis
+10000
$2,020.00
Matti Jorgensen
+10000
$2,020.00
Cory Carsten
+10000
$2,020.00
Ethan Day
+10000
$2,020.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+10000
$2,020.00
Chris Williams
+10000
$2,020.00
Sebastian Balbuena
+10000
$2,020.00
Hamden Hudson
+10000
$2,020.00
Kevin Buitenhuis
+10000
$2,020.00
Justin Rodbell
+10000
$2,020.00
Vince Friese
+10000
$2,020.00

Moto #1 Winner

Pro Motocross has treated us to 10 races in the opening five rounds, and the Lawrence siblings have delivered a clean sweep. Both brothers have contributed five wins to the cause, but Jett has a superior Moto #1 record. The younger Lawrence has entered Victory Lane three times in the opening race, while Hunter has done it twice.

Only two other riders have challenged the Lawrence dynasty this term, and they hail from across the pond. Jorge Prado has finished second in three races this year, including last weekend in  Moto #2 at RedBud; the other is wildcard Lucas Coenen, who ended runner-up in both starts on his debut at Thunder Valley.

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Rider
Moto #1 Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-101
$39.80
Hunter Lawrence
+139
$47.80
Haiden Deegan
+496
$119.20
Lucas Coenen
+496
$119.20
RJ Hampshire
+1705
$361.00
Jorge Prado
+2194
$458.80
Garrett Marchbanks
+3731
$766.20
Cooper Webb
+5335
$1,087.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+12246
$2,469.20
Justin Barcia
+13414
$2,702.80
Tony Cairoli
+13414
$2,702.80
Mikkel Haarup
+13414
$2,702.80
Roan van de Moosdijk
+13985
$2,817.00
Valentin Guillod
+14393
$2,898.60
Jordon Smith
+14393
$2,898.60
Mitchell Harrison
+14606
$2,941.20
Mark Fineis
+14606
$2,941.20
Christian Craig
+15773
$3,174.60
Benny Bloss
+15773
$3,174.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+15773
$3,174.60
Justin Cokinos
+15773
$3,174.60
Sebastian Balbuena
+15773
$3,174.60
Ashton Arruda
+15773
$3,174.60
Kevin Buitenhuis
+15773
$3,174.60
Lorenzo Locurcio
+15773
$3,174.60
Grant Harlan
+15773
$3,174.60
Justin Rodbell
+15773
$3,174.60
Hamden Hudson
+15773
$3,174.60
Matti Jorgensen
+15773
$3,174.60
Joey Crown
+15773
$3,174.60
Chris Williams
+15773
$3,174.60
Cory Carsten
+15773
$3,174.60
Ethan Day
+15773
$3,174.60
Johnathan Stasukelis
+15773
$3,174.60
Vince Friese
+15773
$3,174.60
Blake Hoag
+15773
$3,174.60
Cody Walker
+15773
$3,174.60
Gage Hulsey
+15773
$3,174.60

Odds for Event Winner

Perennial favorite Jett Lawrence pulls into Southwick with longer odds for a win than last week, after settling for third place in RedBud. The result means Hunter Lawrence tops the standings ahead of round six. He lines up with a 60% win rate in five rounds, while his younger brother has won two rounds.

Jorge Prado is yet to bag top honors in 2026, but the Spaniard is fresh off his second runner-up of the campaign. Lucas Coenen is back for his second wildcard entry after dazzling on debut. The Belgian finished second in both races at Thunder Valley, proving the sport’s future is bright. Speaking of the future, Haiden Deegan joins Coenen on +600, but the Californian has only managed two third places and appears a better pick for a podium.

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Rider
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-150
$33.33
Hunter Lawrence
+160
$52.00
Haiden Deegan
+600
$140.00
Lucas Coenen
+600
$140.00
Jorge Prado
+1615
$343.00
RJ Hampshire
+2112
$442.40
Garrett Marchbanks
+3336
$687.20
Cooper Webb
+6310
$1,282.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+15052
$3,030.40
Valentin Guillod
+15773
$3,174.60
Tony Cairoli
+16029
$3,225.80
Justin Barcia
+16293
$3,278.60
Mikkel Haarup
+16293
$3,278.60
Christian Craig
+17141
$3,448.20
Roan van de Moosdijk
+17141
$3,448.20
Jordon Smith
+17141
$3,448.20
Mark Fineis
+17141
$3,448.20
Joey Crown
+17444
$3,508.80
Cory Carsten
+17444
$3,508.80
Blake Hoag
+17444
$3,508.80
Ashton Arruda
+17757
$3,571.40
Kevin Buitenhuis
+17757
$3,571.40
Grant Harlan
+17757
$3,571.40
Justin Rodbell
+17757
$3,571.40
Matti Jorgensen
+17757
$3,571.40
Vince Friese
+17757
$3,571.40
Benny Bloss
+18082
$3,636.40
Cornelius Tøndel
+18082
$3,636.40
Mitchell Harrison
+18082
$3,636.40
Justin Cokinos
+18082
$3,636.40
Sebastian Balbuena
+18082
$3,636.40
Lorenzo Locurcio
+18082
$3,636.40
Johnathan Stasukelis
+18082
$3,636.40
Gage Hulsey
+18082
$3,636.40
Hamden Hudson
+18419
$3,703.80
Chris Williams
+18419
$3,703.80
Ethan Day
+18419
$3,703.80
Cody Walker
+18419
$3,703.80
Expert Pick

Jett Lawrence has captured the preceding three editions of this event, and his in the form to make it four. However, we believe his brother’s consistent form across the SX and MX campaigns makes him the one to beat at Southwick. Hunter Lawrence enters the fray at +160 to enter Victory Lane, potentially paying out $52.00 for a $20.00 stake.

Odds for a Podium

The value for money is abundant in the Southwick National podium betting markets. Youngsters Haiden Deegan and Lucas Coenen spearhead the bang-for-buck at +100 for a top three. The latter starts only his second MX event on a 450 bike, after grabbing second place at Thunder Valley. Deegan is undertaking his rookie season and has registered a 40% top three return in the opening five rounds. 

Riding into round six in fourth on the standings, Jorge Prado tops our value picks for a top three. The Spaniard secured his second podium of the Championship last weekend and averages 3.6 in his past five Moto #1 and Moto #2 races. On the shorter end of the stick, Hunter and Jett arrive with negative odds after a 100% top three return in the opening rounds.

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Rider
Podium Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-1000
$22.00
Hunter Lawrence
-400
$25.00
Haiden Deegan
+100
$40.00
Lucas Coenen
+100
$40.00
Jorge Prado
+212
$62.40
RJ Hampshire
+366
$93.20
Garrett Marchbanks
+382
$96.40
Cooper Webb
+400
$100.00
Justin Barcia
+1500
$320.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+1725
$365.00
Jordon Smith
+2996
$619.20
Mitchell Harrison
+2996
$619.20
Mikkel Haarup
+3157
$651.40
Tony Cairoli
+5002
$1,020.40
Matti Jorgensen
+8030
$1,626.00
Ethan Day
+8030
$1,626.00
Cody Walker
+8030
$1,626.00
Valentin Guillod
+8097
$1,639.40
Roan van de Moosdijk
+8097
$1,639.40
Justin Cokinos
+8097
$1,639.40
Ashton Arruda
+8097
$1,639.40
Lorenzo Locurcio
+8097
$1,639.40
Grant Harlan
+8097
$1,639.40
Justin Rodbell
+8097
$1,639.40
Chris Williams
+8097
$1,639.40
Vince Friese
+8097
$1,639.40
Christian Craig
+8164
$1,652.80
Benny Bloss
+8164
$1,652.80
Cornelius Tøndel
+8164
$1,652.80
Mark Fineis
+8164
$1,652.80
Sebastian Balbuena
+8164
$1,652.80
Kevin Buitenhuis
+8164
$1,652.80
Hamden Hudson
+8164
$1,652.80
Cory Carsten
+8164
$1,652.80
Blake Hoag
+8164
$1,652.80
Joey Crown
+8233
$1,666.60
Johnathan Stasukelis
+8233
$1,666.60
Gage Hulsey
+8233
$1,666.60

Top 5 Odds

RJ Hampshire finally broke into the top five, crossing the line in fourth at RedBud. The Floridian has knocked on the door all season, averaging 6.60 across five rounds, and it finally opened for him. He’ll have to up his game at Southwick, as he settled for sixth here last year. Garrett Marchbanks joins Hampshire at -110 for a top five, off the back of his third in five rounds. He averages 6.80 this season, which was tarnished by a 14th-place return at Fox Raceway. Otherwise, he’s remained consistent, only missing the top five once in four races.

A more conservative pick is Jorge Prado, who is fairly priced with negative odds for a top five. He finished fifth here last year, and has only missed the first five in one race this term. Continuing with the European contingent, longshot hunters might consider Dylan Ferrandis. The Frenchman has battled his way into the top five once this year. Otherwise, he’s recorded consistent results with three ninth places.

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Rider
Top 5 Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-1574
$21.27
Hunter Lawrence
-900
$22.22
Haiden Deegan
-175
$31.43
Lucas Coenen
-175
$31.43
Jorge Prado
-140
$34.29
Garrett Marchbanks
-110
$38.18
RJ Hampshire
-110
$38.18
Cooper Webb
+150
$50.00
Justin Barcia
+600
$140.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+800
$180.00
Mikkel Haarup
+800
$180.00
Valentin Guillod
+1470
$314.00
Tony Cairoli
+2000
$420.00
Mitchell Harrison
+2000
$420.00
Christian Craig
+2062
$432.40
Roan Van De Moosdijk
+2077
$435.40
Jordon Smith
+2521
$524.20
Mark Fineis
+4726
$965.20
Benny Bloss
+5633
$1,146.60
Lorenzo Locurcio
+5633
$1,146.60
Grant Harlan
+5633
$1,146.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+5633
$1,146.60
Justin Cokinos
+5633
$1,146.60
Chris Williams
+5633
$1,146.60
Joey Crown
+5633
$1,146.60
Ashton Arruda
+5633
$1,146.60
Johnathan Stasukelis
+5633
$1,146.60
Ethan Day
+5633
$1,146.60
Cody Walker
+5633
$1,146.60
Kevin Buitenhuis
+5633
$1,146.60
Gage Hulsey
+5633
$1,146.60
Sebastian Balbuena
+5633
$1,146.60
Cory Carsten
+5633
$1,146.60
Hamden Hudson
+5633
$1,146.60
Matti Jorgensen
+5633
$1,146.60
Blake Hoag
+5633
$1,146.60
Vince Friese
+5633
$1,146.60
Justin Rodbell
+5633
$1,146.60

H2H Odds

The pick of our Southwick matchups pits youth against experience. Championship leader Hunter Lawrence is heavily favored to see off the challenge of the wildcard, Lucas Coenen. The last time these two riders met was at Thunder Valley, and on that occasion the Belgian got the better of the Australian, finishing second. 

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Rider
Matchup Odds
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
+310
$82.00
Jett Lawrence
-475
$24.21
Cooper Webb
+153
$50.60
Garrett Marchbanks
-208
$29.62
Hunter Lawrence
-500
$24.00
Lucas Coenen
+322
$84.40
Jorge Prado
-162
$32.35
RJ Hampshire
+122
$44.40

DFS Finishing Positions

Moto #1

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Lucas Coenen
3.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Jorge Prado
5.5
Cooper Webb
5.5
Garrett Marchbanks
5.5
RJ Hampshire
5.5
Dylan Ferrandis
9.5

Overall

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Lucas Coenen
3.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Jorge Prado
5.5
Cooper Webb
5.5
Garrett Marchbanks
5.5
RJ Hampshire
5.5
Dylan Ferrandis
9.5

Where to Bet on MX Southwick National

Bets for the Pro Motocross Southwick National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbets’ comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.

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