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Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Thunder Valley Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Thunder Valley Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Pro Motocross has wrapped up its 2026 obligations in California and moves into the Rockies this Saturday for round three. The Lawrence brothers have monopolized the series to date, sitting first and second in the standings. Jett Lawrence lines up in Thunder Valley as the pre-event odds favorite, followed closely by the Championship leader, Hunter Lawrence, in second. We have every betting market covered for the stop in Colorado in our event preview below.

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Schedule and How to Watch MX Thunder Valley

The Championship moves on to Thunder Valley Motocross Park on Saturday, June 13, for round three. It’s an early start for riders in Lakewood, as they set off for qualifying mid-morning, before switching to race mode post-lunch. Moto #1 takes to the track at 1:15 pm MDT, followed by Moto #2 at 3:15 pm. Find out if anyone can stop the Lawrences in Colorado, live on Peacock.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Live SMX Odds

Best Bets & Odds for 450 Class Motocross Thunder Valley

Moto #1 Holeshot Odds

Two rounds and four races have passed in the 2026 Pro Motocross Championship, and four riders have holeshots to their names. Jett Lawrence bagged his maiden reward of the term last weekend in Moto #1 at Hangtown. He joins his brother, Hunter, Cooper Webb, and Mikkel Haarup in the holeshot club this year. Hunter Lawrence is the in-form holeshotter this term, registering seven in Supercross and one at Fox Raceway in round one. Jorge Prado is yet to register an MX holeshot this year, but he did earn six during his SX campaign.

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Rider
Holeshot Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+250
$70.00
Jorge Prado
+300
$80.00
Hunter Lawrence
+400
$100.00
Haiden Deegan
+600
$140.00
Justin Cooper
+800
$180.00
Chase Sexton
+800
$180.00
Cooper Webb
+1500
$320.00
Aaron Plessinger
+2500
$520.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+2500
$520.00
Justin Barcia
+2500
$520.00
Mitchell Harrison
+7000
$1,420.00
Colt Nichols
+7000
$1,420.00
Jordon Smith
+7000
$1,420.00
Grant Harlan
+7000
$1,420.00
Freddie Noren
+7000
$1,420.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+7000
$1,420.00
Christian Craig
+7000
$1,420.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+10000
$2,020.00
Benny Bloss
+10000
$2,020.00
Valentin Guillod
+10000
$2,020.00
Gavin Tilford
+10000
$2,020.00
Grant Hoffman
+10000
$2,020.00
Gavin Brough
+10000
$2,020.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+10000
$2,020.00
Vinny Luhovey
+10000
$2,020.00
Cory Carsten
+10000
$2,020.00
Dante Oliveira
+10000
$2,020.00
Dayton Briggs
+10000
$2,020.00
Noah Miesen
+10000
$2,020.00
Cody Wingardner
+10000
$2,020.00
Bryce Hammond
+10000
$2,020.00
Konnor Visger
+10000
$2,020.00
Ethan Day
+10000
$2,020.00
Ryan Surratt
+10000
$2,020.00
Brian Medeiros
+10000
$2,020.00
R.J. Warda
+10000
$2,020.00
Brett Stralo
+10000
$2,020.00
Blake Hoag
+10000
$2,020.00

Odds for Event Winner

The Lawrence family accounts for 100% of the round victories after two events. This week’s favorite, Jett Lawrence, bagged the win last weekend, while Hunter took top honors in the opening round. The latter boasts a 1.5 finishing average after the opening events, but he had to settle for fifth on his last visit to Thunder Valley.

Newcomer Haiden Deegan left the Hangtown Classic with his maiden podium in a 450 Pro Motocross round. His last appearance in Colorado ended in a runner-up performance in the 250 class, but he did enter Victory Lane in the same division in 2024. The Spaniard, Jorge Prado, showed promise in round one with a second-place finish, but sauntered home in 17th last weekend.

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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+100
$40.00
Hunter Lawrence
+200
$60.00
Haiden Deegan
+325
$85.00
Jorge Prado
+900
$200.00
Chase Sexton
+900
$200.00
Justin Cooper
+1200
$260.00
Cooper Webb
+2497
$519.40
Aaron Plessinger
+5680
$1,156.00
RJ Hampshire
+6992
$1,418.40
Mikkel Haarup
+13414
$2,702.80
Anton Nordstrom
+13599
$2,739.80
Benny Bloss
+13599
$2,739.80
Bryce Hammond
+13599
$2,739.80
Dylan Ferrandis
+13599
$2,739.80
Garrett Marchbanks
+13599
$2,739.80
Justin Barcia
+13599
$2,739.80
Valentin Guillod
+13789
$2,777.80
Jack Chambers
+14393
$2,898.60
Justin Rodbell
+14393
$2,898.60
Lorenzo Locurcio
+14393
$2,898.60
Magnus Smith
+14393
$2,898.60
Mitchell Harrison
+14393
$2,898.60
Vince Friese
+14393
$2,898.60
Vinny Luhovey
+14393
$2,898.60
Clayton Tucker
+14606
$2,941.20
Cornelius Tøndel
+14606
$2,941.20
Hamden Hudson
+14606
$2,941.20
Christian Craig
+14825
$2,985.00
Dante Oliveira
+14825
$2,985.00
Freddie Noren
+14825
$2,985.00
Jordon Smith
+14825
$2,985.00
Mason Semmens
+14825
$2,985.00
Colt Nichols
+15052
$3,030.40
Grant Harlan
+15052
$3,030.40
Kyle Webster
+15052
$3,030.40
Mitchell Oldenburg
+15052
$3,030.40
Expert Pick

Defending series champion Jett Lawrence has owned this event since 2023 and is hunting his fourth consecutive triumph in Lakewood. He’s priced at +100 for the win, which offers a prospective payout of $40.00 on a $20.00 bet.

Odds for a Podium

Hunter Lawrence enters round three at -350 for a top-three return. That is a feat he’s managed in 70% of his previous 10 SMX events across both formats. The third-placed rider from round two, Haiden Deegan, offers slightly better value than Hunter. He improved on a fifth-place return in the first round to stand on the rostrum last time out. Deegan earned back-to-back podiums in 2024 and 2025 with a smaller engine, and is well poised to collect another on a 450 in this edition.

Jorge Prado sat among our podium predictions in round two, after a second-place return at Fox Raceway. He unfortunately struggled, finding himself outside of the top 10 at Hangtown. That is why the Spaniard’s odds have lengthened to +200 for a top three. Our sleeper for this market is Dylan Ferrandis, who just missed out on a podium in the last event.

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Rider
Podium Finish
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-700
$22.86
Hunter Lawrence
-350
$25.71
Haiden Deegan
-150
$33.33
Chase Sexton
+150
$50.00
Jorge Prado
+200
$60.00
Justin Cooper
+250
$70.00
Cooper Webb
+350
$90.00
Aaron Plessinger
+800
$180.00
Mikkel Haarup
+1200
$260.00
Anton Nordstrom
+1200
$260.00
Jordon Smith
+1200
$260.00
Justin Barcia
+2000
$420.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+2000
$420.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+3000
$620.00
Colt Nichols
+3000
$620.00
Mitchell Harrison
+3000
$620.00
Freddie Noren
+3998
$819.60
Benny Bloss
+7713
$1,562.60
Valentin Guillod
+7900
$1,600.00
Jack Chambers
+8164
$1,652.80
Christian Craig
+8233
$1,666.60
Justin Rodbell
+8233
$1,666.60
Magnus Smith
+8233
$1,666.60
Vince Friese
+8233
$1,666.60
Clayton Tucker
+8233
$1,666.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+8233
$1,666.60
Lorenzo Locurcio
+8233
$1,666.60
Hamden Hudson
+8233
$1,666.60
Vinny Luhovey
+8233
$1,666.60
Mason Semmens
+8303
$1,680.60
Grant Harlan
+8303
$1,680.60
Kyle Webster
+8303
$1,680.60
Dante Oliveira
+8303
$1,680.60
Bryce Hammond
+8375
$1,695.00
Mitchell Oldenburg
+8375
$1,695.00

Top 5 Odds

We ended our podium picks with Dylan Ferrandis, and he’ll start us off for a top-five finish. He’s as cheap as chips at +500 after his fourth place return in round two. The Frenchman enters Colorado with a 6.50 finishing average, which was hurt by his ninth-place return on opening weekend. Sticking with the outsiders, Garrett Marchbanks enters Thunder Valley fresh off his maiden top five of the campaign. Despite his performance a week ago, the markets view him as a long shot in this market.

The ever-consistent Justin Cooper eased off the throttle in round two, falling outside of the top 10. You can’t hold it against him, as he’s secured top fives in 60% of his past 10 SMX events. Chase Sexton is yet to finish inside of the top five this term, but he’s come close in the opening rounds. He averages 6.50 after the first two events, with a best return of sixth place.

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Rider
Top 5 Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-900
$22.22
Hunter Lawrence
-700
$22.86
Chase Sexton
-165
$32.12
Haiden Deegan
-150
$33.33
Justin Cooper
-125
$36.00
Cooper Webb
-125
$36.00
Malcolm Stewart
+265
$73.00
Aaron Plessinger
+265
$73.00
Jorge Prado
+265
$73.00
Justin Barcia
+300
$80.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+500
$120.00
Mitchell Harrison
+800
$180.00
Colt Nichols
+800
$180.00
Jordon Smith
+800
$180.00
Justus Hill
+800
$180.00
Freddie Noren
+1500
$320.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+1500
$320.00
Christian Craig
+1500
$320.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+2675
$555.00
Valentin Guillod
+6093
$1,238.60
Benny Bloss
+6093
$1,238.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+6093
$1,238.60
Gavin Tilford
+6093
$1,238.60
Grant Hoffman
+6093
$1,238.60
Gavin Brough
+6093
$1,238.60
Cody Wingardner
+6093
$1,238.60
Vinny Luhovey
+6093
$1,238.60
Konnor Visger
+6093
$1,238.60
Ryan Surratt
+6093
$1,238.60
Cory Carsten
+6093
$1,238.60
Dante Oliveira
+6093
$1,238.60
Noah Miesen
+6093
$1,238.60
Bryce Hammond
+6093
$1,238.60
Ethan Day
+6093
$1,238.60
Blake Hoag
+6093
$1,238.60
R.J. Warda
+6093
$1,238.60
Brett Stralo
+6093
$1,238.60
Brian Medeiros
+6093
$1,238.60

Moto #1 Winner

Much like our event winner odds market, the Lawrence siblings take center stage in Moto #1. Hunter Lawrence clinched a clean sweep in the opening round, before his younger brother followed suit at Hangtown. Jett Lawrence entered Victory Lane in both races at this venue in 2025 and has his tail up after grabbing both motos in the previous event. Haiden Deegan closes out our list of Moto #1 hopefuls. He’s brimming with confidence after his first MX podium, but it’s hard to see him getting the better of the Lawrences ‘ Hondas.

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Rider
Moto 1 Winner
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+150
$50.00
Hunter Lawrence
+250
$70.00
Haiden Deegan
+350
$90.00
Chase Sexton
+700
$160.00
Jorge Prado
+900
$200.00
Justin Cooper
+900
$200.00
Cooper Webb
+1500
$320.00
RJ Hampshire
+2500
$520.00
Aaron Plessinger
+4000
$820.00
Mikkel Haarup
+4000
$820.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+6000
$1,220.00
Justin Barcia
+6000
$1,220.00
Vince Friese
+6000
$1,220.00
Jordon Smith
+6000
$1,220.00
Mitchell Oldenburg
+6000
$1,220.00
Anton Nordstrom
+15000
$3,020.00
Benny Bloss
+15000
$3,020.00
Bryce Hammond
+15000
$3,020.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+15000
$3,020.00
Valentin Guillod
+15000
$3,020.00
Jack Chambers
+15000
$3,020.00
Justin Rodbell
+15000
$3,020.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+15000
$3,020.00
Magnus Smith
+15000
$3,020.00
Mitchell Harrison
+15000
$3,020.00
Vinny Luhovey
+15000
$3,020.00
Clayton Tucker
+15000
$3,020.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+15000
$3,020.00
Hamden Hudson
+15000
$3,020.00
Christian Craig
+15000
$3,020.00
Dante Oliveira
+15000
$3,020.00
Freddie Noren
+15000
$3,020.00
Mason Semmens
+15000
$3,020.00
Colt Nichols
+15000
$3,020.00
Grant Harlan
+15000
$3,020.00
Kyle Webster
+15000
$3,020.00
Freddie Noren
+15000
$3,020.00

H2H Odds

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Matchup
Moneyline
Payout on $20
Hunter Lawrence
+113
$42.60
Jett Lawrence
-150
$33.33
Chase Sexton
-102
$39.61
Haiden Deegan
-130
$35.38
Cooper Webb
-106
$38.87
Justin Cooper
-125
$36.00
Jorge Prado
-250
$28.00
Malcolm Stewart
+181
$56.20

2026 Pro Motocross Championship Futures

After a dominant showing in round two, the defending series champion, Jett Lawrence, is now the overwhelming favorite for the title. Despite his performance and the confidence of the markets, it’s Hunter Lawrence who tops the standings, heading into round three. The older Lawrence holds a 14-point buffer over Jettson, but can he break his brother’s unbeaten run on this circuit to remain ahead?

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Rider
Futures
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-250
$28.00
Hunter Lawrence
+150
$50.00
Jorge Prado
+1100
$240.00
Chase Sexton
+1100
$240.00
Haiden Deegan
+2000
$420.00
Justin Cooper
+2500
$520.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+6657
$1,351.40

DFS Finishing Positions

Moto #1

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Player
Finishing Position
Jett Lawrence
2.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Chase Sexton
3.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Justin Barcia
5.5
Dylan Ferrandis
5.5
Cooper Webb
5.5
Aaron Plessinger
5.5

Overall

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Player
Finishing Position
Jett Lawrence
2.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Chase Sexton
3.5
Jorge Prado
3.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Justin Barcia
5.5
Dylan Ferrandis
5.5
Cooper Webb
5.5
Aaron Plessinger
5.5

Where to Bet on MX Thunder Valley

Bets for the Pro Motocross Thunder Valley National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbets’ comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.

21+ Please refer to Affiliated Operators’ T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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