Best Bets: 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis

For the first time since 1953, an Italian F1 driver will line up at Monza as the Drivers’ Championship leader. Kimi Antonelli tops the title chase by 59 points, but has lost ground recently, as Ferrari and McLaren’s drivers have captured four of the last six Grands Prix. Lando Norris enters the weekend as the pre-event odds favorite on Polymarket, but the high-speed straights of this track appear to suit Mercedes, who proved their pace at Spa before the summer break.

In other news, Isack Hadjar looks set to return to his RB22 this weekend, but Red Bull is set to make a final call later in the week. If the Frenchman is unfit, Liam Lawson will continue as Max Verstappen’s teammate, and Yuki Tsunoda will partner Arvid Lindblad at Racing Bulls.

After reading, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place your bets.

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Schedule and How to Watch the F1 Italian Grand Prix

Formula 1 returns to normal scheduling this weekend, as there is no sprint on the program. Teams report for duty at Autodromo Nazionale Monza from September 4 to September 6 for round 13 of the 2026 Championship. Friday sees drivers set out for the opening two practice sessions, and Saturday is reserved for Grand Prix qualifying at 4:00 pm CEST. The main event hits “The Temple of Speed” on Sunday at 3:00 pm local time, which you can follow on Apple TV.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Live Formula 1 Odds

F1 Italy Grand Prix 2026 Odds

Event Winner Odds

After winning five of the first six races on the calendar, Kimi Antonelli has been caught by his rivals at McLaren. Despite losing ground in recent rounds, he’s hopeful of returning to Victory Lane this weekend in his home Grand Prix, but he faces a grid penalty which will see him start from the back. Polymarket has the Italian at +1329 leading into the weekend despite winning six out of 12 races this term, and his Mercedes is best equipped to handle the high-speed straights at Monza.

Lando Norris arrives in Lombardy on a high after prevailing in the last two rounds. He’s helped McLaren close the gap on Mercedes, but the MCL36 appears to thrive better on high-downforce, narrow, twisty tracks, which this circuit is not. George Russell produced his best performance in recent weeks at Zandvoort, capping off the podium, and is tied with his compatriot on two triumphs this year. While both Ferrari drivers have returned to the winner’s circle in 2026, they achieved their top honors on medium- and high-downforce tracks, and Charles Leclerc has admitted they may struggle this weekend.

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Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Lando Norris
+199
$59.80
George Russell
+251
$70.20
Lewis Hamilton
+770
$174.00
Charles Leclerc
+809
$181.80
Kimi Antonelli
+1329
$285.80
Oscar Piastri
+1567
$333.40
Max Verstappen
+1609
$341.80
Isack Hadjar
+39900
$8,000.00
Liam Lawson
+66567
$13,333.40
Pierre Gasly
+66567
$13,333.40
Gabriel Bortoleto
+66567
$13,333.40
Nico Hulkenberg
+66567
$13,333.40
Franco Colapinto
+66567
$13,333.40
Fernando Alonso
+66567
$13,333.40
Carlos Sainz
+66567
$13,333.40
Lance Stroll
+99900
$20,000.00
Arvid Lindblad
+199900
$40,000.00
Alex Albon
+199900
$40,000.00
Esteban Ocon
+199900
$40,000.00
Oliver Bearman
+199900
$40,000.00
Sergio Perez
+199900
$40,000.00
Valtteri Bottas
+199900
$40,000.00

Expert Pick

The high-speed straights of  Monza are perfectly engineered for a Mercedes victory in round 13, and George Russell is our expert pick for the checkered flag. He lines up at +251, potentially paying out $70.20 for the win on a mere $20.00 wager.

Podium Odds

We touched on George Russell in the event winner market, but he’s an ideal selection for podium odds, despite some inconsistencies this campaign. The Briton rides into Italy with four top-threes in his last six races, and he has more than enough speed to keep him in the hunt. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc are joint second favorites, but we think the market might be getting ahead of itself. The duo has collected three podiums in the last five outings, and their pace off the grid is sensational, but what remains to be seen is whether they can maintain their speed on the long, fast straights this weekend.

Max Verstappen endured a horror start last time, crashing out on the opening lap. However, he returns to Monza as the defending champion, and his RB22 does have the pace on the straights. Reigning Drivers’ Champion, Lando Norris boasts a 4.00 finishing average across the last five races and has picked up three rostrums since Barcelona. The McLaren star’s colleague Oscar Piastri closed out his last visit to this track in third. But he’s fallen off the pace this  season, last standing on the podium in Miami.

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Driver
Podium Odds
Payout on $20
Kimi Antonelli
-292
$26.85
Lewis Hamilton
-163
$32.27
Charles Leclerc
-163
$32.27
Lando Norris
-120
$36.67
Max Verstappen
-120
$36.67
George Russell
-120
$36.67
Oscar Piastri
-100
$40.00
Isack Hadjar
-100
$40.00
Arvid Lindblad
-100
$40.00
Liam Lawson
-100
$40.00
Fernando Alonso
-100
$40.00
Lance Stroll
-100
$40.00
Pierre Gasly
-100
$40.00
Franco Colapinto
-100
$40.00
Gabriel Bortoleto
-100
$40.00
Nico Hulkenberg
-100
$40.00
Esteban Ocon
-100
$40.00
Oliver Bearman
-100
$40.00
Alex Albon
-100
$40.00
Carlos Sainz
-100
$40.00
Valtteri Bottas
-100
$40.00
Sergio Perez
+102
$40.40

Pole Position Odds

Twelve rounds have passed in the 2026 F1 Championship, and Mercedes rules the qualifying roost. Kimi Antonelli has started from the front in 50% of all rounds this season, including two of the last four events. He has only started from the second row or worse in four races this term, highlighting his dominant speed over one lap. Lando Norris has sat on pole twice this season and is hunting a third consecutive top qualifying spot leading into Monza.

George Russell is a four-time pole sitter himself this year. He last began a race at the front in Austria. Russell came close to knocking Norris off the top spot at Zandvoort a fortnight ago, but settled for second by 0.102 seconds. Max Verstappen has challenged for top honors on three occasions this season, but was beaten to the front slot by Antonelli three times; the last one was on the high-velocity straights at Spa-Francorchamps. Capping off the pole position odds contenders is Charles Leclerc, who has started second in three of the last five rounds.

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Driver
Pole Position Odds
Payout on $20
George Russell
+277
$75.40
Lando Norris
+335
$87.00
Kimi Antonelli
+506
$121.20
Charles Leclerc
+641
$148.20
Lewis Hamilton
+770
$174.00
Oscar Piastri
+852
$190.40
Max Verstappen
+1233
$266.60
Isack Hadjar
+5614
$1,142.80
Liam Lawson
+6150
$1,250.00
Arvid Lindblad
+7043
$1,428.60
Nico Hulkenberg
+7307
$1,481.40
Pierre Gasly
+7307
$1,481.40
Franco Colapinto
+7307
$1,481.40
Fernando Alonso
+7592
$1,538.40
Valtteri Bottas
+9424
$1,904.80
Oliver Bearman
+13233
$2,666.60
Gabriel Bortoleto
+39900
$8,000.00
Lance Stroll
+39900
$8,000.00
Alex Albon
+39900
$8,000.00

Fastest Lap

Leading into round 13 of the series, Kimi Antonelli has obliterated the clock in the DHL Fastest Lap competition. The Italian has scored six awards so far and is heavily favored to replicate the feat in front of his home crowd in Monza. The only factor counting against him is that he last secured the award at Silverstone, in round nine. Charles Leclerc is the deserved second favorite in the fastest lap odds market after capturing the last two triumphs in Hungary and the Netherlands, respectively.

Lando Norris joins Antonelli and Leclerc as the only other rider to have won the award on multiple occasions this season, with his last one coming in Belgium. Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen complete the list of winners this year, but the Red Bull star stands a higher chance of earning his second award, as his RB22 has shown more promise on low-downforce tracks compared to the Ferrari and McLaren single-seaters.

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Driver
Fastest Lap Odds
Payout on $20
Kimi Antonelli
-120
$36.67
Charles Leclerc
+160
$52.00
Max Verstappen
+172
$54.40
Lando Norris
+525
$125.00
George Russell
+669
$153.80
Lewis Hamilton
+700
$160.00
Oscar Piastri
+1329
$285.80
Fernando Alonso
+4445
$909.00
Arvid Lindblad
+4778
$975.60
Lance Stroll
+4778
$975.60
Sergio Perez
+4778
$975.60
Valtteri Bottas
+4778
$975.60
Gabriel Bortoleto
+4900
$1,000.00
Liam Lawson
+4900
$1,000.00
Nico Hulkenberg
+4900
$1,000.00
Alex Albon
+4900
$1,000.00
Esteban Ocon
+4900
$1,000.00
Oliver Bearman
+4900
$1,000.00
Pierre Gasly
+5028
$1,025.60
Franco Colapinto
+5028
$1,025.60
Isack Hadjar
+5782
$1,176.40
Carlos Sainz
+8596
$1,739.20

Where to Bet on the Pirelli Italian Grand Prix

Motorsport and speed are synonymous with Italy, but the Country hasn’t produced a winner at Monza since Ludovico Scarfiotti in 1966. Kimi Antonelli arrives at the Lombardy circuit looking to become the first Italian to win a Grand Prix in 60 years and has the speed and form to get the job done. However, he must navigate his way through the field as he starts from the back of the grid.

Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you prepare for the Formula 1 Pirelli Gran Premio D’Italia. If you’re a newbie in the world of F1 betting, our comprehensive F1 Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.

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FAQ: 2026 Italian Grand Prix Odds

Lando Norris enters the Italian Grand Prix as the favorite to win the race at +199, followed by Mercedes' George Russell at +251.

George Russell starts the 2026 Italian Grand Prix as the favorite to take pole position at +277. Mercedes produced the fastest qualifier in the first 10 rounds of the year until Lando Norris broke their run in Hungary and the Netherlands.

Kimi Antonelli, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton lead the pre-event podium odds in the 2026 Italian Grand Prix. Mercedes' pace on the high-speed Monza circuit also puts George Russell in with a chance at -120.

Kimi Antonelli tops the Italian Grand Prix odds for the fastest lap after winning the award six times in the first 12 rounds of 2026. He lines up at -120 to stop the clock the quickest.