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Best Bets: 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Formula 1 returns to its roots this weekend, as drivers buckle up for the maiden European round of the season. First on the calendar is the famed Monaco Grand Prix, and a local leads the pre-event odds to prevail on the streets of Monte Carlo. Charl Leclerc tops the betting markets, despite Mercedes winning every race so far this season. Dive into the best bets on Polymarket ahead of the 83rd edition of the sport’s most famous race, in our event preview.

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Schedule and How to Watch the F1 Monaco

Summer is on the horizon, which means it’s time for the European leg of the 2026 Formula 1 campaign. First up is a stop on the Côte d’Azur for the 83rd Monaco Grand Prix, which takes off from Friday, June 5 to Sunday, June 7. After consecutive sprint weekends, the schedule normalizes with three practice sessions before the drivers undertake qualifying on Saturday afternoon. The fanfare hits its stride on Sunday at 9:00 am ET, when racers assemble on the grid for the main event. Catch the racers zipping around Monte Carlo this weekend, live on Apple TV.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Live Formula 1 Odds

F1 Monaco Prix 2026 Odds

Event Winner Odds

Monegasque star Charles Leclerc enters his home Grand Prix as the driver to beat. He bagged the checkered flag here in 2024 and backed it up last year with a runner-up finish. He knows how to deliver on this circuit, but arrives with a 4.40 finishing average across five races. His best finish in 2026 is third, a feat he’s registered twice in five rounds. Sticking with the “Il Cavallino Rampante,” Lewis Hamilton starts after his finest Sunday performance in a Ferrari. The seven-time World Champion dueled with Max Verstappen at the death in Montreal to grab runner-up. Hamilton now has two podiums in the trunk in five rounds, after failing to grab one in 2025.

Despite an utterly dominant start to the campaign, Mercedes’ drivers find themselves as third and fourth favorite, respectively. The markets believe that Mercedes’ speed advantage will be neutralized, and that the low-to-medium speed corners favor the Italian team. Kimi Antonelli leads Toto Wolff’s chargers into Monaco, with four consecutive victories to his name. The youngster leads the Drivers’ Championship ahead of his senior, George Russell, who has one triumph to his name. Finally, Lando Norris took top honors here 12 months ago, but only has one podium to his name this term.

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Driver
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Charles Leclerc
+217
$63.40
Lewis Hamilton
+488
$117.60
Kimi Antonelli
+525
$125.00
George Russell
+590
$138.00
Lando Norris
+809
$181.80
Max Verstappen
+1233
$266.60
Oscar Piastri
+1438
$307.60
Isack Hadjar
+18082
$3,636.40
Franco Colapinto
+49900
$10,000.00
Liam Lawson
+49900
$10,000.00
Oliver Bearman
+49900
$10,000.00
Pierre Gasly
+49900
$10,000.00
Alex Albon
+49900
$10,000.00
Esteban Ocon
+49900
$10,000.00
Gabriel Bortoleto
+49900
$10,000.00
Nico Hulkenberg
+49900
$10,000.00
Carlos Sainz
+50000
$10,020.00
Arvid Lindblad
+66567
$13,333.40
Fernando Alonso
+99900
$20,000.00
Sergio Perez
+99900
$20,000.00
Valtteri Bottas
+99900
$20,000.00
Lance Stroll
+199900
$40,000.00

Expert Pick

Kimi Antonelli has served us well as the expert pick in 2026, delivering an 80% win rate. However, he won’t enjoy the advantage he has had in recent rounds when the drivers line up on the French Riviera this weekend. We are following the markets this Grand Prix and putting our trust in Charles Leclerc. He averages 1.5 on the streets of Monte Carlo in his prior two starts.

Podium Odds

Five out of five is how Kimi Antonelli’s podium record reads this campaign. Four of those results saw him enter Victory Lane, but the Italian finds himself starting the weekend as the joint third favorite for a top three. Following the Italian are four drivers with two podiums apiece. That list includes Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, George Russell and Oscar Piastri.

The Australian enters Monaco as a value pick for a rostrum at +185. He settled for 11th in Canada after the team’s strategy backfired, but he’s carded two podiums in the three races he has started. Piastri is hunting a third consecutive rostrum in Monte Carlo this trip, producing a best of second place in 2024. Lando Norris is also worth a look as he defends his title at this track, boasting two top three returns at this track since 2021. Rounding up the podium hopefuls is Max Verstappen, who looked good in his third-place finish in Montreal. The Dutchman has clinched the Monaco Grand Prix twice in the last five editions, and recorded three top threes in total.

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Driver
Event Podium
Payout on $20
Charles Leclerc
-190
$30.53
Lewis Hamilton
-165
$32.12
George Russell
-105
$39.05
Kimi Antonelli
-105
$39.05
Lando Norris
+125
$45.00
Max Verstappen
+175
$55.00
Oscar Piastri
+185
$57.00
Isack Hadjar
+2200
$460.00
Arvid Lindblad
+13000
$2,620.00
Franco Colapinto
+13000
$2,620.00
Oliver Bearman
+13000
$2,620.00
Pierre Gasly
+13000
$2,620.00
Liam Lawson
+13000
$2,620.00
Esteban Ocon
+20000
$4,020.00
Nico Hulkenberg
+20000
$4,020.00
Gabriel Bortoleto
+20000
$4,020.00
Alex Albon
+20000
$4,020.00
Carlos Sainz
+20000
$4,020.00
Fernando Alonso
+40000
$8,020.00
Valtteri Bottas
+40000
$8,020.00
Sergio Perez
+40000
$8,020.00
Lance Stroll
+40000
$8,020.00

Fastest Lap

The local lad, Charles Leclerc, ties his teammate Lewis Hamilton to deliver the fastest lap in Monte Carlo. Again, we see that the market is bullish on a slower pace from Mercedes, despite their consistency this year. Kimi Antonelli has registered three Fastest Lap awards and finds himself down at +350, but more intriguing is Lando Norris. The Briton set the quickest time over a single lap on this asphalt last year, and showed his skill in Miami in round four to clinch his maiden reward of this campaign.

Four-time World Champion Max Verstappen is the only other driver on the grid to have won a DHL Fastest Lap prize in 2026. He collected it in the season opener “Down Under,” and hasn’t managed to replicate the achievement since. George Russell is our final quickest lap contender, given his overall pace across the opening rounds. However, he is yet to claim the fastest lap time in a race.

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Driver
Fastest Lap
Payout on $20
Charles Leclerc
+330
$86.00
Lewis Hamilton
+330
$86.00
George Russell
+350
$90.00
Kimi Antonelli
+350
$90.00
Lando Norris
+900
$200.00
Max Verstappen
+900
$200.00
Oscar Piastri
+1000
$220.00
Isack Hadjar
+4000
$820.00
Arvid Lindblad
+8000
$1,620.00
Franco Colapinto
+8000
$1,620.00
Pierre Gasly
+8000
$1,620.00
Alex Albon
+10000
$2,020.00
Carlos Sainz
+10000
$2,020.00
Esteban Ocon
+10000
$2,020.00
Gabriel Bortoleto
+10000
$2,020.00
Liam Lawson
+10000
$2,020.00
Nico Hulkenberg
+10000
$2,020.00
Oliver Bearman
+10000
$2,020.00
Fernando Alonso
+13000
$2,620.00
Lance Stroll
+15000
$3,020.00
Sergio Perez
+15000
$3,020.00
Valtteri Bottas
+15000
$3,020.00

Pole Position Odds

Expectations of a strong weekend for Ferrari continue into the pole position market. Leclerc is tipped to top qualifying, but the Monegasque has zero in the trunk this year. The closest he came was in Miami, where he started from the third spot on the grid. Kimi Antonelli is the winningest qualifier on the grid with three in the trunk. The other two rounds saw George Russell stop the clock fastest in qualifying.

Reigning World Champion, Lando Norris, produced his best qualifying round in Canada, settling for third place. This weekend is back on the circuit that handed him pole position in 2025. Sticking with Drivers Champions, Sir Lewis Hamilton enters Saturday as the second favorite. He’s priced at +506, and he’s brimming with confidence after his strong weekend in Canada. But his best qualifying run this year ended in a third-place finish.

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Driver
Pole Position
Payout on $20
Charles Leclerc
+190
$58.00
Lewis Hamilton
+506
$121.20
George Russell
+641
$148.20
Kimi Antonelli
+641
$148.20
Lando Norris
+953
$210.60
Max Verstappen
+1233
$266.60
Oscar Piastri
+1233
$266.60
Isack Hadjar
+2400
$500.00
Carlos Sainz
+2799
$579.80
Nico Hulkenberg
+2799
$579.80
Carlos Sainz
+2799
$579.80
Lance Stroll
+3126
$645.20
Pierre Gasly
+3126
$645.20
Alex Albon
+3471
$714.20
Valtteri Bottas
+3604
$740.80
Liam Lawson
+3900
$800.00
Oliver Bearman
+3900
$800.00
Arvid Lindblad
+4248
$869.60
Esteban Ocon
+6150
$1,250.00
Fernando Alonso
+6150
$1,250.00
Franco Colapinto
+6150
$1,250.00
Gabriel Bortoleto
+6150
$1,250.00
Sergio Perez
+6150
$1,250.00

Where to Bet on the Monaco Grand Prix

Kimi Antonelli is setting the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship alight with four triumphs on the trot, but the markets are backing Charles Leclerc in Monte Carlo. Can the Italian prove them wrong and prevail in a fifth consecutive round, or will the Monegasque taste glory in front of his home crowd?

Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you prepare for the Formula 1 Louis Vuitton Grand Prix de Monaco. If you’re a newbie in the world of F1 betting, our comprehensive F1 Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.

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