Best Bets: 2026 Pro Motocross Ironman National Finals Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2026 Pro Motocross Ironman National Finals Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Finals weekend is upon us, and what a round we have in store, as a single point separates the top two riders in the standings. Sibling rivalry has never been fiercer as one Lawrence seeks his maiden title, while the other is looking to go back-to-back. Jett Lawrence tops the Pro Motocross Ironman National pre-event odds, despite missing his first podium of the campaign last time out, while Hunter remains the value-for-money pick ahead of the showdown in Crawfordsville.

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Schedule and How to Watch MX Ironman National Finals

The 2026 Pro Motocross Championship reaches its climax this weekend in Crawfordsville, where competitors assemble for round 11. Riders set off for qualifying before lunch, then up the ante in Moto #1 at 3:15 pm EDT. The 2026 MX season closes after the 450 Class Moto #2 race, lining up at 4:45 pm local time. Catch the last round of the series from Indiana, live on Peacock, and track the updated program and results on the official Ironman National Finals event page.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Live SMX Odds

Best Bets & Odds for Pro Motocross Ironman National

2026 Pro Motocross Championship Futures

We are down to the last round of the 2026 Championship, and two riders remain in the fight. Hunter Lawrence leads the standings with 442 points, a single unit clear of his brother Jett Lawrence, who stumbled last weekend and relinquished the top spot.

Hunter entered last weekend at +419 to take the title, but his stellar performance at Budds Creek has shortened his odds to +121. On the contrary, Jettson was priced at -714 for the Championship, but his price has lengthened to -161. The latter is still the favorite to prevail, but the number 96 rider is the winningest racer on the start hill leading into the Ironman National.

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Rider
Outright Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-161
$32.42
Hunter Lawrence
+121
$44.20

Odds Without Hunter and Jett Lawrence

The rookie, Haiden Deegan, retains his spot at the head of the battle without Hunter and Jett, but has played second fiddle to the Spaniard, Jorge Prado, in the last two weeks. Deegan has racked up five consecutive podiums in the build-up to the season finale, averaging  2.8 in the last five.

While the youngster has remained consistent late in the season, he has fallen behind Prado in recent weeks, with the KTM rider bagging consecutive runner-up finishes in rounds nine and 10. Eli Tomac enters this market as the third favorite and is more than capable of delivering. However, we haven’t seen him at his best in 2026, recording a top finish of 9th across the campaign.

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Rider
Event Winner WO Jett/Hunter
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
-129
$35.50
Jorge Prado
+465
$113.00
Eli Tomac
+878
$195.60
R.J. Hampshire
+878
$195.60
Garrett Marchbanks
+991
$218.20
Cooper Webb
+1829
$385.80
Aaron Plessinger
+3555
$731.00
Justin Barcia
+5000
$1,020.00
Malcolm Stewart
+5000
$1,020.00
Jordon Smith
+5000
$1,020.00
Mikkel Haarup
+5000
$1,020.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+5000
$1,020.00
Jed Beaton
+6400
$1,300.00
Evan Johnson
+6844
$1,388.80
Devin Simonson
+6844
$1,388.80
Gavin Tilford
+6844
$1,388.80
Lorenzo Locurcio
+6844
$1,388.80
Jack Chambers
+6844
$1,388.80
Eddie Norred
+6844
$1,388.80
Ethan Day
+6844
$1,388.80
Bennett Mantooth
+6844
$1,388.80
Anton Nordström
+6844
$1,388.80
Valentin Guillod
+6844
$1,388.80
Mark Fineis
+6844
$1,388.80
Zach Osborne
+6844
$1,388.80
Cornelius Tøndel
+6844
$1,388.80
Christian Craig
+6844
$1,388.80
Grant Harlan
+6844
$1,388.80
Benny Bloss
+6844
$1,388.80
Jeremy Hand
+6844
$1,388.80
Jason Neidigh
+6844
$1,388.80
Mitchell Harrison
+6844
$1,388.80
Freddie Noren
+6844
$1,388.80
Jeff Walker
+6844
$1,388.80
Vince Friese
+6844
$1,388.80

Moto #1 Holeshot Odds

Six riders have captured a holeshot this term, but the Lawrence brothers account for 13 of the 20 so far. Jett Lawrence tops the odds sheet to reach the opening corner ahead in Moto #1, but he’s only contributed five to his family’s tally. Three out of his five occurred in Moto #1 races, but his last one came at Washougal just over a month ago.

Hunter Lawrence starts as the best bang for buck at +350, boasting eight holeshots across the campaign. However, only two of those were secured in the opening race of an event. The youngster, Haiden Deegan, is on a roll at the back end of the term, racking up three holeshots, all in the last three Moto #1 races. Jorge Prado joins the holeshotters with two this series, and both of them arrived in round five. Cooper Webb and Mikkel Haarup complete the list with one apiece.

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Rider
Holeshot Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+260
$72.00
Jorge Prado
+300
$80.00
Haiden Deegan
+300
$80.00
Hunter Lawrence
+350
$90.00
R.J. Hampshire
+1219
$263.80
Eli Tomac
+1849
$389.80
Mikkel Haarup
+2001
$420.20
Garrett Marchbanks
+2693
$558.60
Jed Beaton
+3717
$763.40
Aaron Plessinger
+3717
$763.40
Cooper Webb
+3998
$819.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+4286
$877.20
Dylan Ferrandis
+7534
$1,526.80
Zach Osborne
+13233
$2,666.60
Justin Barcia
+13233
$2,666.60
Benny Bloss
+13985
$2,817.00
Jordon Smith
+13985
$2,817.00
Freddie Noren
+13985
$2,817.00
Gavin Tilford
+13985
$2,817.00
Stephen Rubini
+13985
$2,817.00
Mitchell Harrison
+14186
$2,857.20
Christian Craig
+14186
$2,857.20
Malcolm Stewart
+14393
$2,898.60
Jeremy Hand
+14393
$2,898.60
Lorenzo Locurcio
+14393
$2,898.60
Jeff Walker
+14393
$2,898.60
Colt Nichols
+14393
$2,898.60
John Short
+14393
$2,898.60
Luca Marsalisi
+14393
$2,898.60
Mark Fineis
+14606
$2,941.20
Bennett Mantooth
+14606
$2,941.20
Valentin Guillod
+14606
$2,941.20
Tanner Ward
+14606
$2,941.20
Daniel Bortolin
+14825
$2,985.00
Jack Chambers
+14825
$2,985.00
Justin Hill
+14825
$2,985.00
Eddie Norred
+14825
$2,985.00
Austin Cozadd
+15052
$3,030.40

Moto #1 Winner

Hunter Lawrence has dominated Moto #1 this series, racking up six wins in 10 rounds. Across 20 races in 2026, the older Lawrence has registered a 60% win rate, making him the winningest rider on the start hill. Jett Lawrence once again leads the odds to capture the first race, despite only bagging four Moto #1 contests. In total, the younger Australian brother has entered Victory Lane on eight occasions in 20 races.

While the Aussies have registered a clean sweep in Moto #1 and Moto #2 this year, two riders have come close to disrupting their reign. Haiden Deegan and Jorge Prado have each finished second four times this season. While both have come close to challenging the Lawrences, they haven’t looked strong enough to challenge the leaders for top honors.

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Rider
Moto 1 Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
+127
$45.40
Hunter Lawrence
+172
$54.40
Haiden Deegan
+372
$94.40
Jorge Prado
+800
$180.00
R.J. Hampshire
+1916
$403.20
Eli Tomac
+2321
$484.20
Garrett Marchbanks
+3222
$664.40
Jed Beaton
+3853
$790.60
Cooper Webb
+6797
$1,379.40
Malcolm Stewart
+7476
$1,515.20
Mikkel Haarup
+7476
$1,515.20
Justin Barcia
+7476
$1,515.20
Aaron Plessinger
+7476
$1,515.20
Dylan Ferrandis
+12246
$2,469.20
Cornelius Tøndel
+13599
$2,739.80
Ethan Day
+14606
$2,941.20
Valentin Guillod
+14606
$2,941.20
Jordon Smith
+14606
$2,941.20
Freddie Noren
+14606
$2,941.20
Jeff Walker
+14606
$2,941.20
Anton Nordström
+14606
$2,941.20
Evan Johnson
+14606
$2,941.20
Devin Simonson
+14606
$2,941.20
Jeremy Hand
+14606
$2,941.20
Christian Craig
+14825
$2,985.00
Eddie Norred
+14825
$2,985.00
Zach Osborne
+14825
$2,985.00
Benny Bloss
+14825
$2,985.00
Grant Harlan
+14825
$2,985.00
Mitchell Harrison
+14825
$2,985.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+14825
$2,985.00
Jack Chambers
+14825
$2,985.00
Bennett Mantooth
+14825
$2,985.00
Vince Friese
+14825
$2,985.00
Mark Fineis
+14825
$2,985.00
Jason Neidigh
+14825
$2,985.00
Gavin Tilford
+14825
$2,985.00

Odds for Event Winner

Jett Lawrence arrives at Ironman Raceway fresh off his first missed podium of the season. He has prevailed in four events this year, averaging 2.10 across the series, which is joint-best with his brother. Speaking of his sibling, Hunter Lawrence enters the final round with positive odds of +124, despite boasting a 60% win record across 10 rounds. He’s only failed to make the rostrum once this season and has entered Victory Lane in three of the last four events.

While the Lawrence brothers are the only event winners in this MX season, Haiden Deegan and Jorge Prado are the only two who have challenged the Aussies in 2026. Prado has come closest the most times, riding away with second in four events. The Spaniard starts the finale off the back of consecutive second-place finishes, averaging 3.6 in the past five rounds. Deegan, on the other hand, has only finished second once this year, which came at Spring Creek in mid-July.

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Rider
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-129
$35.50
Hunter Lawrence
+124
$44.80
Haiden Deegan
+436
$107.20
Jorge Prado
+900
$200.00
Eli Tomac
+2850
$590.00
R.J. Hampshire
+2859
$591.80
Garrett Marchbanks
+3200
$660.00
Cooper Webb
+5782
$1,176.40
Jed Beaton
+7592
$1,538.40
Justin Barcia
+10001
$2,020.20
Malcolm Stewart
+10001
$2,020.20
Jordon Smith
+10001
$2,020.20
Mikkel Haarup
+10001
$2,020.20
Aaron Plessinger
+10889
$2,197.80
Dylan Ferrandis
+15525
$3,125.00
Evan Johnson
+19900
$4,000.00
Devin Simonson
+19900
$4,000.00
Gavin Tilford
+19900
$4,000.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+19900
$4,000.00
Jack Chambers
+19900
$4,000.00
Eddie Norred
+19900
$4,000.00
Ethan Day
+19900
$4,000.00
Bennett Mantooth
+20308
$4,081.60
Anton Nordström
+20308
$4,081.60
Valentin Guillod
+20308
$4,081.60
Mark Fineis
+20308
$4,081.60
Zach Osborne
+20733
$4,166.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+20733
$4,166.60
Christian Craig
+20733
$4,166.60
Grant Harlan
+21177
$4,255.40
Benny Bloss
+21639
$4,347.80
Jeremy Hand
+22122
$4,444.40
Jason Neidigh
+22122
$4,444.40
Mitchell Harrison
+22122
$4,444.40
Freddie Noren
+22122
$4,444.40
Jeff Walker
+22122
$4,444.40
Vince Friese
+22122
$4,444.40
Expert Pick

While the markets continue to put their faith in the younger Lawrence sibling, we are putting our trust in Hunter Lawrence. He offers better value for money and has recorded more victories in this MX campaign than his brother. Sportsbooks have Hunter at +124 for the final round, offering a possible payout of $44.80 on a $20.00 wager.

Odds for a Podium

As we’re accustomed to, the Lawrence brothers are expensive for a top-three bet, owing to their 90% podium returns this series. Haiden Deegan starts at -135 for rostrum after securing a 100% top-three return in the past five rounds. The youngster has averaged 2.8 during that period and has posted a 3.70 average across all 10 rounds.

Jorge Prado is the best value bet in the podium market, arriving in Indiana at +175. He has only stood on the rostrum in 40% of events this year, but two of his four arrived in the previous two rounds. Prado averages 3.6 between rounds six and 10. The last time the dirt bikers were in town, R.J. Hampshire collected a runner-up return, while Eli Tomac settled for third. This time around, neither of them has finished among the top three after 10 rounds.

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Rider
Podium Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-455
$24.40
Hunter Lawrence
-370
$25.40
Haiden Deegan
-135
$34.80
Jorge Prado
+175
$55.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+250
$70.00
R.J. Hampshire
+300
$80.00
Eli Tomac
+316
$83.20
Cooper Webb
+617
$143.40
Dylan Ferrandis
+1079
$235.80
Jed Beaton
+1670
$354.00
Aaron Plessinger
+1823
$384.60
Justin Barcia
+1846
$389.20
Mikkel Haarup
+2363
$492.60
Malcolm Stewart
+6703
$1,360.60
Grant Harlan
+6942
$1,408.40
Devin Simonson
+7043
$1,428.60
Gavin Tilford
+7043
$1,428.60
Mitchell Harrison
+7043
$1,428.60
Jeremy Hand
+7043
$1,428.60
Freddie Noren
+7043
$1,428.60
Jeff Walker
+7043
$1,428.60
Mark Fineis
+7043
$1,428.60
Benny Bloss
+7094
$1,438.80
Christian Craig
+7094
$1,438.80
Jack Chambers
+7094
$1,438.80
Bennett Mantooth
+7094
$1,438.80
Jason Neidigh
+7094
$1,438.80
Zach Osborne
+7094
$1,438.80
Cornelius Tøndel
+7146
$1,449.20
Anton Nordström
+7146
$1,449.20
Jordon Smith
+7146
$1,449.20
Vince Friese
+7199
$1,459.80
Valentin Guillod
+7199
$1,459.80
Ethan Day
+7199
$1,459.80
Evan Johnson
+7199
$1,459.80
Lorenzo Locurcio
+7253
$1,470.60
Eddie Norred
+7419
$1,503.80

Top 5 Odds

Jorge Prado has ranked among the most consistent riders this season, bar a mishap in round two when he finished 17th. The KTM rider has averaged 4.80 this season, but still offers fair value for a top-five return this week. Added to the value bundle is R.J. Hampshire, who has carded two top-fives in the last five. Despite his best efforts, he produced his worst result of the year at Budds Creek, but has otherwise kept his scorecard tidy.

Garrett Marchbanks has battled in recent rounds, only recording two top-fives in the past five events. However, he boasts a 50% record in this market across the season. Dylan Ferrandis deserves a look, with two finishes inside the first five positions, but one of those was in the past three rounds. Cooper Webb isn’t as strong in the MX format as he is in the stadium events, but he’s ended sixth twice in the past five events and is knocking on the door of a top-five finish.

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Rider
Top 5 Odds
Payout on $20
Jett Lawrence
-1000
$22.00
Hunter Lawrence
-800
$22.50
Haiden Deegan
-300
$26.67
Jorge Prado
+100
$40.00
Eli Tomac
+125
$45.00
R.J. Hampshire
+125
$45.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+125
$45.00
Cooper Webb
+300
$80.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+474
$114.80
Aaron Plessinger
+483
$116.60
Justin Barcia
+678
$155.60
Jed Beaton
+718
$163.60
Mikkel Haarup
+1226
$265.20
Malcolm Stewart
+1342
$288.40
Jordon Smith
+2779
$575.80
Christian Craig
+4000
$820.00
Valentin Guillod
+4000
$820.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+4000
$820.00
Benny Bloss
+4000
$820.00
Mark Fineis
+4000
$820.00
Mitchell Harrison
+4000
$820.00
Zach Osborne
+4000
$820.00
Freddie Noren
+4000
$820.00
Grant Harlan
+4000
$820.00
Jeremy Hand
+4000
$820.00
Jack Chambers
+4000
$820.00
Bennett Mantooth
+4000
$820.00
Jeff Walker
+4000
$820.00
Eddie Norred
+4000
$820.00
Jason Neidigh
+4000
$820.00
Vince Friese
+4000
$820.00
Evan Johnson
+4000
$820.00
Ethan Day
+4000
$820.00
Devin Simonson
+4000
$820.00
Lorenzo Locurcio
+4000
$820.00
Gavin Tilford
+4000
$820.00

H2H Odds

The Australians face off in the standout matchup of the finale, where Hunter Lawrence is the underdog against Jett. While the odds suggest that the younger brother should take it, Hunter has crossed the line ahead of Jettson in 60% of events this series. The older sibling starts at +121, giving bettors exceptional value.

Next we have Jorge Prado pitted against the wunderkind, Haiden Deegan, where bettors expect “DangerBoy” to reach the finish before the Spaniard. However, the results this year suggest that the matchup is closer than the odds make out. After 10 rounds, both riders have outperformed the other in five events, making it an even 5-5 split. In addition, Prado has beaten Deegan in the last two rounds, but Deegan boasts a superior finishing average this season of 3.70.

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Matchup
Moneyline
Payout on $20
Hunter Lawrence
+121
$44.20
Jett Lawrence
-161
$32.42
Haiden Deegan
-225
$28.89
Jorge Prado
+165
$53.00
Eli Tomac
-102
$39.61
R.J. Hampshire
-130
$35.38
Cooper Webb
+131
$46.20
Garrett Marchbanks
-175
$31.43
Justin Barcia
-133
$35.04
Malcolm Stewart
+100
$40.00

DFS Finishing Positions

Moto #1

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
2.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
Jorge Prado
6.5
R.J. Hampshire
6.5
Eli Tomac
6.5
Garrett Marchbanks
8.5
Aaron Plessinger
9.5
Cooper Webb
10.5
Dylan Ferrandis
10.5

Overall

Rider
Projected Position
Jett Lawrence
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
1.5
Haiden Deegan
3.5
R.J. Hampshire
5.5
Jorge Prado
5.5
Eli Tomac
5.5
Garrett Marchbanks
6.5
Aaron Plessinger
9.5
Dylan Ferrandis
9.5
Cooper Webb
9.5
Justin Barcia
10.5

Where to Bet on MX Ironman National Final

Bets for the Pro Motocross Ironman National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbets’ comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.

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