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Best Bets: F1 Spanish Grand Prix 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: F1 Spanish Grand Prix 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The lush greenery of Montreal’s Circuit Gilles Villeneuve set the stage for an electrifying Canadian Grand Prix where Max Verstappen extended his formidable season with a commanding victory. Lando Norris’ impressive race secured him second place for McLaren, while George Russell obtained pole position but saw himself fall to third for Mercedes. Early race incidents and strategic tire choices added layers of drama, with a brief safety car period bunching up the field. This victory reinforced Verstappen’s lead in the championship standings, while Norris and Rusell’s podium finishes highlighted their teams’ competitive progress in the tightly contested season.

Now, the Formula 1 circus crosses the Atlantic for the ever-popular Spanish Grand Prix in Montreal. The challenging Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, named after the legendary Ferrari driver, poses a unique test with its unforgiving walls and slippery surfaces. As the season hits a critical juncture, the Spanish round offers savvy bettors enticing opportunities to capitalize on the ebbs and flows of this captivating campaign. Let’s dive into the odds, analyze the contenders, and pinpoint where the smart money lies.

After reading, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place your bets. 

In addition to traditional sports betting on F1, the Spanish GP has Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Real Money Gaming available in a Pick’Em style on Underdog. Although “fantasy games” might seem misleading, DFS is a significant and growing category within legal sports wagering. F1 fans are allowed to legally make better/worse picks with real money gaming in 30 states, including California, Texas & Wisconsin where traditional sports betting is currently illegal.

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Schedule and How to Watch the F1 Spanish Grand Prix

The Spanish Grand Prix will take place at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Montmeló, Spain, on Sunday, June 23, 2024. The race is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM local time (9:00 AM EST).

For the complete schedule and updates, be sure to visit the official Formula 1 website.

To catch every thrilling moment of the Spanish Grand Prix as it unfolds, tune into ESPN for live coverage, ensuring you don’t miss a single second of the drama in Barcelona. For the latest odds and previous results, be sure to check NXTbets.

Best Bets and Picks for the F1 Spanish Grand Prix

Top Picks and Bets

Driver

Event Winner

$20 Payout

Podium

$20 Payout

Max Verstappen

-190

$30.53

-600

$23.33

Lando Norris

+400

$100.00

-225

$28.89

Charles Leclerc

+800

$180.00

-140

$34.29

Max Verstappen (-190 to win, -600 podium) heads to Barcelona as the man to beat after a successful Canadian Grand Prix. The reigning champion’s victory in Montreal, his sixth of the season, showcased his ability to overcome adversity – from treacherous weather conditions to a malfunctioning DRS system – but his fading air of invincibility is a developing storyline this season. While Red Bull has admitted to setup struggles in recent races, Verstappen’s adaptability has been key to maintaining his championship lead. The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, with its mix of high-speed corners and technical sections, should play to the strengths of both Verstappen and the RB20. His record at this track is formidable, with wins in 2022 and 2023, and a masterful drive from 4th to 1st in 2016 on his Red Bull debut. The -600 podium odds reflect Verstappen’s incredible consistency – he’s finished in the top three in 7 of the 8 races he has finished this year. Yet, as the field tightens and challengers emerge, the question lingers: Is this the weekend Verstappen’s grip on the 2024 season begins to loosen?

Speaking of challengers, Lando Norris (+400 to win, -225 podium) comes to Spain with a head full of steam after a string of strong performances, including his maiden victory in Miami and a hard-fought second place in Canada. The McLaren driver has consistently punched above his weight in 2024, often challenging the frontrunners despite not always having the fastest car. Norris’ smooth driving style and exceptional tire management skills could prove crucial at Barcelona, a circuit notorious for its high degradation rates. While he’s yet to score a podium at this track, Norris has shown steady improvement year-on-year, with a 4th place finish in 2023. McLaren’s planned upgrades for the Spanish Grand Prix could provide the extra edge Norris needs to challenge for victory. He is Verstappen’s closest challenger, so his podium odds aren’t exactly lucrative, but at +400 for the win, daring bettors would pocket a nice payout if he can pull off the upset.

The wildcard in this triumvirate of top picks is Charles Leclerc (+800 to win, -140 podium). The Monegasque driver’s season has been a roller-coaster of highs and lows, epitomized by his victory in Australia followed by a disastrous retirement in Canada. Leclerc’s blistering one-lap pace is beyond question – he’s claimed pole position in Barcelona twice in the past three years – but Ferrari’s race pace and strategy execution remain significant question marks. If the Scuderia can unlock the SF-24’s potential over a full race distance, Leclerc could be a serious threat for the win. However, his inconsistency makes him a riskier proposition than Verstappen or Norris. For the podium, however, he’s a relatively safe bet.

Outsider Bets

Driver

Event Winner

$20 Payout

Podium

$20 Payout

Oscar Piastri

+1600

$340.00

+175

$55.00

Carlos Sainz

+2200

$460.00

+275

$75.00

Sergio Perez

+2500

$520.00

+300

$80.00

Oscar Piastri (+1600 to win, +175 podium) has been living in the shadow of his more experienced teammate for much of 2024, but the Australian rookie is showing signs of finding his feet at the highest level. His composed drive to fifth place in the chaos of Canada highlighted his growing confidence and adaptability. Barcelona’s mix of high and low-speed corners should provide a stern test of Piastri’s skills, but if he can match Norris’ pace, a podium finish isn’t out of the question. The +175 odds for a top-three finish look particularly tempting given McLaren’s recent form.

For Carlos Sainz (+2200 to win, +275 podium), the Spanish Grand Prix represents a golden opportunity to kickstart his season in front of his home fans. The Ferrari driver has shown flashes of brilliance in 2024, but a combination of bad luck and inconsistency has left him playing catch-up in the championship standings. Sainz has had some strong performances in Barcelona, having finished just off the podium in 2022. If he can harness the energy of the crowd and extract the maximum from his Ferrari, Sainz could be a dark horse for a surprise victory.

The fall from grace of Sergio Perez (+2500 to win, +300 podium) has been one of the most surprising storylines of the 2024 season. Once considered a genuine title contender, the Mexican now finds himself a distant fifth in the championship and under increasing pressure to retain his Red Bull seat. Perez’s struggles in qualifying have been particularly alarming, often leaving him mired in the midfield and vulnerable to first-lap incidents. However, his race pace remains strong, and if he can qualify well in Spain, Perez has the machinery to challenge for a podium finish. The +300 odds reflect his current form, but they could represent excellent value if Perez can recapture his early-season form.

Expert Pick for F1 Spanish 2024

While the smart money may be on Verstappen, we’re backing Lando Norris to cause an upset and claim his second victory of the season. The McLaren driver’s combination of raw pace, tire management skills, and newfound confidence make him a formidable proposition around the demanding Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. With odds of +400 for the win and -225 for a podium finish, Norris represents the best value bet for the Spanish Grand Prix.

F1 Championship Futures Update

Driver

Champion Odds

$20 Payout

Max Verstappen

-2000

$21.00

Charles Leclerc

+1400

$300.00

Lando Norris

+1600

$340.00

Oscar Piastri

+10,000

$2020.00

Sergio Perez

+20,000

$4020.00


The events in Canada have had a significant impact on the championship futures market. While Verstappen remains the overwhelming favorite, his odds have actually shortened from -3500 to -2000, reflecting the increased competitiveness of the field. Leclerc’s disappointing weekend sees him drift slightly to +1400, while Norris’ podium finish has seen his odds cut dramatically from +2500 to +1600. Perhaps most tellingly, Sergio Perez‘s championship hopes appear to be fading fast, with his odds ballooning from +10,000 to +20,000

Where to Bet on Formula 1

Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Spanish GP. If you’re a newbie in the thrilling world of Formula 1 betting, our comprehensive Formula 1 Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.

As the Formula 1 circus descends on Barcelona, the stage is set for a pivotal weekend in the 2024 championship. With Red Bull showing signs of vulnerability and the chasing pack closing in, the Spanish Grand Prix promises high-stakes action and potential market-shifting outcomes. Whether you’re backing Verstappen to reassert his dominance, Norris to continue his ascent, or an outsider to spring a surprise, there’s value to be found across the board. Don’t miss a moment of the drama as it unfolds at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya – your next winning bet could be just around the corner.

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