Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
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Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+300
$80.00
Alex Marquez
+500
$120.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2400
$500.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Quartararo
+3900
$800.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1000.00
Johann Zarco
+4900
$1000.00
Maverick Vinales
+5900
$1200.00
Joan Mir
+7900
$1600.00
Enea Bastianini
+12400
$2500.00
Jack Miller
+12400
$2500.00
Ai Ogura
+12400
$2500.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Raul Fernandez
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Alex Espargaro
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+74900
$15000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Michele Pirro
+74900
$15000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
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Rider
Fastest Qualifier
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-182
$30.99
Francesco Bagnaia
+275
$75.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1300
$280.00
Franco Morbidelli
+1700
$360.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2900
$600.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Pedro Acosta
+4400
$900.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+8400
$1700.00
Alex Rins
+14900
$3000.00
Enea Bastianini
+14900
$3000.00
Raul Fernandez
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+39900
$8000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+74900
$15000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
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Rider
Race Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-227
$28.81
Francesco Bagnaia
+350
$90.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Fabio Quartararo
+1600
$340.00
Franco Morbidelli
+2100
$440.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+2400
$500.00
Pedro Acosta
+3400
$700.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+5400
$1100.00
Maverick Vinales
+5400
$1100.00
Johann Zarco
+6400
$1300.00
Joan Mir
+8400
$1700.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2000.00
Alex Rins
+11900
$2400.00
Enea Bastianini
+24900
$5000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+29900
$6000.00
Alex Espargaro
+29900
$6000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+49900
$10000.00
Pol Espargaro
+99900
$20000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+149900
$30000.00
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
FanDuel
Get $300 Back in Bonus Bets Every Day For 10 Days!
At Sepang’s first preseason test, Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia reported an immediate improvement on the new GP26, citing notably better braking and corner-entry confidence after a difficult 2025 season. He ran a radical aerodynamic fairing that showed both advantages and drawbacks but produced lap times broadly similar to the older bodywork, giving the team useful comparative data for ongoing development. Bagnaia and Alex Márquez spent much of the day on long runs with used tires to assess race pace, and the squad planned a sprint simulation the next day, followed by a full race simulation on day three. The opening work built on an encouraging Valencia post-season test and left Bagnaia cautiously optimistic while warning against reading too much into a single day.
Marc Márquez set the early benchmark with a 1:57.018 while managing limits as he recovers from a right-shoulder issue, and Bagnaia ultimately placed eighth, roughly seven-tenths off that time. Ducati’s focus in Sepang was clearly on usable setup and tire feedback rather than outright sheet positions, with Bagnaia emphasizing that the team needs to better understand how new parts behave before converting test pace into race advantage. The broader test painted a mixed picture across the paddock. Yamaha’s V4 was reported to be short on power, turning, traction, and electronics, and Fabio Quartararo was later ruled out of part of the program with a finger injury. On the contrary, Alex Rins and Jack Miller struck a more positive tone about Yamaha development. Early signs from Aprilia, KTM, and Honda were encouraging through riders such as Lorenzo Savadori, Pedro Acosta, Luca Marini, and Joan Mir, even as rookies and regulars worked through setups and recoveries.
Off-track, the opening test intensified contract-year and transfer speculation. Bagnaia is in a 2027 contract year and acknowledged that impending regulation changes have helped create a lively market. Reports linked Ducati with interest in Pedro Acosta for a factory seat and indicated the factory is close to finalizing a new deal with Marc Márquez, developments that feed uncertainty around other riders’ futures. Several pieces of coverage noted that a strong return to consistent podium form by Bagnaia would complicate any premature assumptions about incoming stars, and Ducati will use the remainder of preseason testing to firm up the GP26’s setup and aerodynamic package. Overall, the Sepang opener left Ducati with encouraging technical signs and a clearer roadmap for evaluation, even as the paddock begins to reshuffle around the new rules.
Marco Bezzecchi won the United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas on an Aprilia, while Toprak Razgatlioglu scored his first MotoGP premier-class point by finishing 15th after overtaking a fading Fabio Quartararo late in the race. “I’m happy with the point, but we were 25 seconds behind the leader,” Razgatlioglu said, underlining the roughly 25-second gap to the frontrunners and the limits of the Yamaha package.
Razgatlioglu credited Pramac teammate Jack Miller and lessons learned on and off track for helping him finish and collect a point, saying he had adopted a calmer, smoother “Superbike” riding style that helped manage troublesome Michelin tires. He also said he learned from following Quartararo during the event and from testing with Miller, but admitted weaknesses remained, notably in early braking zones, and he matched and then surpassed his 2025 crash tally in recent rounds.
Pramac director Gino Borsoi called the result “a morale boost,” and the team noted it was the first MotoGP championship point for the updated Yamaha M1 V4 package while stressing their ambitions remained higher and hoping it would be the first of many. Yamahas nonetheless filled the final four finishing positions at Austin, underscoring the gap to the Aprilia-led frontrunners, and Razgatlioglu praised the Circuit of the Americas and vowed to push for better results as the championship moved toward the European rounds.
Missouri legalized sports betting recently. However, it has yet to roll out despite the state lifting the ban. Missouri motorsports enthusiasts and fans wishing to deepen their engagement with MotoGP races, athletes, and events should consider Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). Fortunately, Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks operate legally within the state, allowing residents to enjoy simple, …
We’ve waited three weeks to see the best riders back on track, and now we can look forward to three days of action. Marc Marquez takes pole position in the 2025 Austria MotoGP pre-event odds, coming off five consecutive victories, and extending his lead to 120 points in the series. The Spaniard’s teammate Francesco Bagnaia …
Best Bets: MotoGP Italy 2025 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia come home this weekend to a circuit that has remained a happy hunting ground for locals in the 21st Century. However, a Spaniard, Marc Marquez, is looking to add his nation’s haul in Mugello and leads the MotoGP Italy 2025 pre-event odds heading into the weekend.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Schedule and How to Watch the MotoGP Italy
Get the coffee on because it’s a weekend of early morning starts for MotoGP fans watching stateside. First up is FP1 on Friday, June 20 at 4:45 am ET, but the betting lines come into effect on Saturday and Sunday with qualifying, the sprint, and the Grand Prix, in that order. Qualifying runs from 4:50 am to 5:30 am on Saturday, followed by the sprint at 9:00 am. Riders then line up for the main event on Sunday at 8 am. Follow all the practice, qualifying, and racing throughout the weekend on Fox Sports 1, and keep on top of the latest analysis and odds on NXTbets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 Italian MotoGP
Grand Prix Winner Odds
The Marquez brothers have stolen the show over the first eight rounds of this season, winning five races between them. Marc Marquez is operating with a 50% win record across the season and lines up with short odds to take the checkered flag in Mugello. Although the “Ant of Cervera” has dominated this season, he must conquer Mugello and dethrone “Pecco” Bagnaia. The home crowd favorite is unbeaten on this circuit since 2022, and he’s entering in relatively solid form with five podiums under the bike this year, including a trip inside Victory Lane in Austin.
Alex Marquez touches down in Italy as the third favorite at a venue where he has yet to stand on the podium. He’s producing his best MotoGP season to date, racking up five podiums and already surpassing his highest points tally in a calendar year, with 201 points in the Championship Standings. The KTM Factory riders looked better on the bike at Aragon, but sadly, the bike slid out from underneath Brad Binder on the 11th lap, while Pedro Acosta held on for his second top five of the campaign.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick for MotoGP Italy
The expert pick is a tough choice for Italy, given the battle between Francesco Bagnaia’s historical form at this circuit and Marc Marquez’s current pulverization of the 2025 Championship. However, we think Bagnaia has it in him to win a fourth Italian MotoGP, with odds of +300. That translates into a potential payout of $80.00 for a $20 stake.
Qualifying Odds
The older Marquez, Marc, once again dominates headlines when it comes to the grid procession, starting from pole in five of the eight Grands Prix this Championship. His worst qualifying came at Silverstone, where he ended Q2 in fourth position. Fabio Quartararo is the only other rider to top qualifying this season, taking three consecutive poles between Spain and the United Kingdom. However, he’s proven erratic at times, qualifying outside of the top six in half of his appearances in 2025.
swipe to see more
Sprint Odds
If you thought Marc Marquez was unstoppable in qualifying and on Sunday, you’ve seen nothing yet. The Ducati superstar has triumphed in seven out of the eight sprint races this season and finished on the podium on every occasion. He is the overwhelming favorite to take the short race, but may face resistance from his sibling, who has one sprint victory under the bike this season.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is tearing up the field in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, but he’s on his teammate’s asphalt this weekend, and “Pecco” is the king here. Can Bagnaia win a fourth consecutive Italian MotoGP title, or will Marquez top the podium again? Either way, it’s a fantastic weekend to be in the Ducati garage.
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Brembo Grand Prix of Italy. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Related Posts
Bagnaia Reports Brake Boost, Confidence on Ducati GP26
At Sepang’s first preseason test, Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia reported an immediate improvement on the new GP26, citing notably better braking and corner-entry confidence after a difficult 2025 season. He ran a radical aerodynamic fairing that showed both advantages and drawbacks but produced lap times broadly similar to the older bodywork, giving the team useful comparative data for ongoing development. Bagnaia and Alex Márquez spent much of the day on long runs with used tires to assess race pace, and the squad planned a sprint simulation the next day, followed by a full race simulation on day three. The opening work built on an encouraging Valencia post-season test and left Bagnaia cautiously optimistic while warning against reading too much into a single day.
Marc Márquez set the early benchmark with a 1:57.018 while managing limits as he recovers from a right-shoulder issue, and Bagnaia ultimately placed eighth, roughly seven-tenths off that time. Ducati’s focus in Sepang was clearly on usable setup and tire feedback rather than outright sheet positions, with Bagnaia emphasizing that the team needs to better understand how new parts behave before converting test pace into race advantage. The broader test painted a mixed picture across the paddock. Yamaha’s V4 was reported to be short on power, turning, traction, and electronics, and Fabio Quartararo was later ruled out of part of the program with a finger injury. On the contrary, Alex Rins and Jack Miller struck a more positive tone about Yamaha development. Early signs from Aprilia, KTM, and Honda were encouraging through riders such as Lorenzo Savadori, Pedro Acosta, Luca Marini, and Joan Mir, even as rookies and regulars worked through setups and recoveries.
Off-track, the opening test intensified contract-year and transfer speculation. Bagnaia is in a 2027 contract year and acknowledged that impending regulation changes have helped create a lively market. Reports linked Ducati with interest in Pedro Acosta for a factory seat and indicated the factory is close to finalizing a new deal with Marc Márquez, developments that feed uncertainty around other riders’ futures. Several pieces of coverage noted that a strong return to consistent podium form by Bagnaia would complicate any premature assumptions about incoming stars, and Ducati will use the remainder of preseason testing to firm up the GP26’s setup and aerodynamic package. Overall, the Sepang opener left Ducati with encouraging technical signs and a clearer roadmap for evaluation, even as the paddock begins to reshuffle around the new rules.
Bezzecchi wins COTA GP; Razgatlioglu best Yamaha, 25s back
Marco Bezzecchi won the United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas on an Aprilia, while Toprak Razgatlioglu scored his first MotoGP premier-class point by finishing 15th after overtaking a fading Fabio Quartararo late in the race. “I’m happy with the point, but we were 25 seconds behind the leader,” Razgatlioglu said, underlining the roughly 25-second gap to the frontrunners and the limits of the Yamaha package.
Razgatlioglu credited Pramac teammate Jack Miller and lessons learned on and off track for helping him finish and collect a point, saying he had adopted a calmer, smoother “Superbike” riding style that helped manage troublesome Michelin tires. He also said he learned from following Quartararo during the event and from testing with Miller, but admitted weaknesses remained, notably in early braking zones, and he matched and then surpassed his 2025 crash tally in recent rounds.
Pramac director Gino Borsoi called the result “a morale boost,” and the team noted it was the first MotoGP championship point for the updated Yamaha M1 V4 package while stressing their ambitions remained higher and hoping it would be the first of many. Yamahas nonetheless filled the final four finishing positions at Austin, underscoring the gap to the Aprilia-led frontrunners, and Razgatlioglu praised the Circuit of the Americas and vowed to push for better results as the championship moved toward the European rounds.
How to Play MotoGP DFS in Missouri
Missouri legalized sports betting recently. However, it has yet to roll out despite the state lifting the ban. Missouri motorsports enthusiasts and fans wishing to deepen their engagement with MotoGP races, athletes, and events should consider Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). Fortunately, Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks operate legally within the state, allowing residents to enjoy simple, …
Best Bets: 2025 Austria MotoGP Pre-Event Odds Analysis
We’ve waited three weeks to see the best riders back on track, and now we can look forward to three days of action. Marc Marquez takes pole position in the 2025 Austria MotoGP pre-event odds, coming off five consecutive victories, and extending his lead to 120 points in the series. The Spaniard’s teammate Francesco Bagnaia …