Best Bets: NHRA Sonoma Nationals Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for NHRA Sonoma Nationals 2024

Top Fuel

Top Picks and Bets – Top Fuel

Doug Kalitta (+374 event winner, +469 quickest ET): The reigning world champion and current points leader has been a model of consistency in 2024. Kalitta has three wins and made four straight finals before a semifinal exit in Seattle. He reset both ends of the track record there with a scorching 3.670 at 337.41 mph pass. Kalitta is a three-time Sonoma winner (2005, 2019, 2023) and his Alan Johnson-tuned dragster is running better than ever.

Steve Torrence (+599 event winner, +616 quickest ET): Torrence snapped a 20-race winless streak with his victory in Seattle, potentially signaling a return to the dominant form that saw him win four straight championships from 2018-2021. He qualified No. 1 and made it to the final in Sonoma last year, losing a close race to Kalitta. With renewed confidence and a car running consistently in the 3.70s, Torrence is a serious threat to go back-to-back.

Justin Ashley (+738 event winner, +1129 quickest ET): Ashley’s first-round exit in Seattle was a rare misstep in an otherwise stellar season. He has two wins and three No. 1 qualifiers in 2024 and sits third in points. Ashley has yet to win at Sonoma, but he did make the final in his first appearance here in 2021. His longer odds for quickest ET reflect some recent qualifying struggles, but Ashley’s Phillips Connect dragster is always capable of putting up big numbers.

Outsider Picks – Top Fuel

Shawn Langdon (+776 event winner, +719 quickest ET): Langdon’s runner-up finish in Seattle vaulted him to second in points behind teammate Kalitta. He’s been to four finals this year without a win, suggesting he’s due for a breakthrough. Langdon won at Sonoma in 2013 and always seems to perform well here. His +719 odds for quickest ET are particularly appealing given the strength of the Kalitta Motorsports tune-up.

Antron Brown (+824 event winner, +1089 quickest ET): Brown’s first-round exit in Seattle was a disappointment after his win in Norwalk, but the three-time world champion is always dangerous. He’s a three-time winner at Sonoma (2009, 2012, 2015) and seems to thrive in the summer heat. Brown’s Matco Tools dragster has been inconsistent in qualifying, explaining his long quickest ET odds, but he’s capable of putting up big numbers when it counts.

Clay Millican (+862 event winner, +709 quickest ET): Millican made it to the semifinals in Seattle and has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season. He’s yet to win in 2024 but has qualified in the top half of the field at most events. Millican set the Sonoma track speed record at 335.15 mph in 2018 and clearly knows how to get down this racing surface. His +709 odds for quickest ET offer intriguing value given his qualifying prowess.

Expert Pick – Top Fuel

Doug Kalitta’s combination of consistency and outright speed makes him the driver to beat. As the defending event winner and current points leader, he clearly knows how to get it done at Sonoma. Expect another strong showing from the Alan Johnson-tuned dragster.

Head-to-Head Picks – Top Fuel

Funny Car

Top Picks and Bets – Funny Car

Austin Prock (+418 event winner, +451 quickest ET): Prock’s meteoric rise in Funny Car continues unabated. With four wins already this season, including his recent triumph in Seattle, he’s established himself as the man to beat. Prock’s consistency is remarkable – he’s qualified No. 1 at eight of eleven events and made four straight 3.80-second passes in Seattle eliminations. While he hasn’t raced a Funny Car at Sonoma before, Prock did win in Top Fuel here in 2022. His +418 odds to win reflect his dominance, but there’s still value there given his current form.

Matt Hagan (+524 event winner, +383 quickest ET): The defending world champion has had an up-and-down season but remains a threat at every event. Hagan’s most recent win came in Chicago, and he’s particularly dangerous in the summer heat. His +383 odds for quickest ET are intriguing; Hagan has a history of laying down blistering runs in qualifying. With four career wins at Sonoma, including last year, Hagan knows how to get it done here.

Bob Tasca III (+655 event winner, +596 quickest ET): Tasca has been Prock’s closest challenger in points, though a second-round exit in Seattle widened the gap. He’s reached three finals this year, winning twice, and set the track speed record in Seattle with a blistering 338.51 mph pass. Tasca’s Ford has shown incredible top-end speed lately, making his +596 quickest ET odds potentially lucrative. He’s never won at Sonoma, which explains his longer odds, but Tasca is overdue for a breakthrough here.

Outsider Picks – Funny Car

Ron Capps (+730 event winner, +982 quickest ET): The three-time world champion has struggled to find consistency in 2024, but you can never count out a driver of Capps’ caliber. He suffered a scary explosion and crash in Seattle, but his NAPA Auto Parts team always rebounds quickly. Capps is a four-time winner at Sonoma and holds the track ET record at 3.837 seconds. If his team can dial in the tune-up, Capps could easily play spoiler.

J.R. Todd (+786 event winner, +738 quickest ET): Todd has quietly put together a solid season, currently sitting fourth in points. He made it to the semifinals in Seattle and has been to two finals in 2024. Todd won at Sonoma in 2017 en route to his world championship and always seems to perform well on the Western Swing. His DHL Toyota has shown flashes of brilliance in qualifying, making his +738 quickest ET odds potentially valuable.

Daniel Wilkerson (+837 event winner, +1270 quickest ET): Wilkerson has been one of the pleasant surprises of 2024, currently sitting seventh in points. He’s made it to two semifinals this year and has shown the ability to take down top contenders on any given Sunday. Wilkerson’s lack of Sonoma success explains his long odds, but his Levi, Ray & Shoup Ford has been consistently quick in qualifying. At +1270 for quickest ET, he’s a high-risk, high-reward option.

Expert Pick – Funny Car

Austin Prock‘s dominance this season simply can’t be ignored. His consistency in both qualifying and eliminations makes him the safest bet, even at relatively short odds. Look for Prock to continue his hot streak and potentially set new track records at Sonoma.

Head-to-Head Picks – Funny Car

Pro Stock Car

Top Picks and Bets – Pro Stock Car

Greg Anderson (+438 event winner, +264 quickest ET): The winningest driver in Pro Stock history hasn’t visited the winner’s circle yet in 2024, but his +264 odds for quickest ET show oddsmakers respect his qualifying prowess. Anderson has six career wins at Sonoma, most recently in 2021. His first-round exit in Seattle was uncharacteristic, and you can bet the KB Titan Racing team will have him dialed in for Sonoma.

Dallas Glenn (+489 event winner, +408 quickest ET): Glenn extended his points lead with a runner-up finish in Seattle and has been the model of consistency all season. He’s made six finals in eleven races, winning twice. Glenn’s .00 reaction times have earned him the nickname “Double-O Dallas,” and his ability to win rounds on holeshots makes him dangerous even without the quickest car. He hasn’t won at Sonoma yet, but neither had he won in Seattle before last year.

Erica Enders (+529 event winner, +334 quickest ET): The five-time world champion is still seeking her milestone 50th career win. Enders has two wins this season but suffered an uncharacteristic first-round loss in Seattle. Her +334 odds for quickest ET are appealing; when the Elite Motorsports team hits their setup, Enders is capable of dominating qualifying. She won at Sonoma in 2014 and 2015 and will be hungry to reassert herself in the championship chase.

Outsider Picks – Pro Stock Car

Aaron Stanfield (+822 event winner, +1539 quickest ET): After winning back-to-back races in Richmond and Norwalk, Stanfield suffered a surprising first-round loss in Seattle. He’s proven he can win multiple races in a row, making his +822 event winner odds potentially appealing. Stanfield won at Sonoma in 2021 and always seems to run well in the summer heat. His long odds for quickest ET are puzzling given his qualifying success earlier this year.

Jeg Coughlin Jr. (+838 event winner, +1395 quickest ET): Fresh off his win in Seattle, Coughlin’s odds seem surprisingly long. The five-time world champion has won three times already in 2024 and clearly has his Elite Motorsports Chevrolet dialed in. Coughlin is a three-time winner at Sonoma, most recently in 2010. His experience and recent success make him a strong value play at these odds.

Troy Coughlin Jr. (+1048 event winner, +1055 quickest ET): The younger Coughlin has been overshadowed by his uncle Jeg’s recent success, but he’s having a solid season in his own right. T.J. won in Epping and made it to the semifinals in Seattle. He was the No. 1 qualifier and runner-up at Sonoma last year, showing he knows how to navigate this track. At these odds, Coughlin Jr. is an intriguing longshot pick.

Expert Pick – Pro Stock Car

Dallas Glenn’s ability to win close races on holeshots gives him an edge in the ultra-competitive Pro Stock class. His recent runner-up finish in Seattle shows he’s still at the top of his game, and he’s due for a win at Sonoma after last year’s No. 1 qualifying performance.

Head-to-Head Picks – Pro Stock Car

Pro Stock Motorcycle

Top Picks and Bets – Pro Stock Motorcycle

Gaige Herrera (-378 event winner, -344 quickest ET): Even after his 12-race win streak was snapped in Seattle, Herrera remains the overwhelming favorite. His Vance & Hines Suzuki has been utterly dominant, often winning by margins measured in tenths rather than thousandths. Herrera qualified No. 1 and won at Sonoma last year in just his third career final round appearance. While his negative odds don’t offer much value, betting against Herrera seems foolish given his 2024 performance.

Matt Smith (+762 event winner, +510 quickest ET): The six-time world champion is the most likely candidate to challenge Herrera’s supremacy. Smith set both ends of the track record in Seattle qualifying before his bike refused to start in the semifinals. He’s a four-time winner at Sonoma, most recently in 2019. Smith’s Denso Buell has shown flashes of being able to run with Herrera, making his +510 odds for quickest ET intriguing.

Chase Van Sant (+1105 event winner, +1393 quickest ET): Fresh off his breakthrough win in Seattle, Van Sant has momentum on his side. The 2023 Rookie of the Year has steadily improved all season, culminating in that historic final round victory over Herrera. Van Sant’s Trick-Tools Suzuki has shown impressive top-end speed, but consistency in qualifying has been an issue. Still, at these odds, he’s worth consideration as a dark horse pick.

Outsider Picks – Pro Stock Motorcycle

Richard Gadson (+2098 event winner, +2074 quickest ET): Gadson has been impressive in his rookie Pro Stock Motorcycle campaign, currently sitting third in points. He’s made it to two finals this year and has shown the ability to go rounds consistently. Gadson has no Sonoma experience, explaining his long odds, but his Vance & Hines Suzuki is clearly capable of running at the front of the pack.

John Hall (+2588 event winner, +3837 quickest ET): Hall has been a model of consistency in 2024, currently sitting fourth in points despite not reaching a final. He’s made it to at least the second round at every race and clearly knows how to win rounds. Hall finished runner-up at Sonoma in 2013 and always seems to perform well on the Western Swing. At these odds, he’s a high-risk but potentially high-reward option.

Jianna Evaristo (+2610 event winner, +3956 quickest ET): Evaristo has shown impressive speed in recent events, setting both ends of the track record in Seattle before losing to Herrera in the second round. She made it to the final in Norwalk and clearly has a bike capable of running at the front. Evaristo’s lack of consistency explains her long odds, but she’s shown the ability to put up big numbers in qualifying. Her +3956 quickest ET odds are worth a look for the truly adventurous bettor.

Expert Pick – Pro Stock Motorcycle

Even after his winning streak was snapped, Gaige Herrera remains the clear favorite. His Vance & Hines Suzuki has been in a different league all season, and he’ll be extra motivated after the Seattle loss. The negative odds aren’t ideal, but Herrera is still the smart money.

Head-to-Head Picks – Pro Stock Motorcycle

Championship Futures Update

Top Fuel

The Top Fuel championship battle is heating up, with Doug Kalitta holding onto the top spot thanks to his unwavering consistency. However, Justin Ashley is making a strong case for himself, with his significantly improved odds reflecting a growing belief in his ability to challenge Kalitta for the title. Keep an eye on Antron Brown, too – his resurgence has been impressive, and his odds have improved notably, suggesting he could be a serious contender in the races to come. Steve Torrence and Shawn Langdon remain solid threats, but they’ll need to step up their game if they want to keep pace with the frontrunners.

Funny Car

In Funny Car, Austin Prock has been nothing short of dominant, and his tightening odds reflect the increasing confidence in his championship prospects. However, Matt Hagan is not far behind, with his consistent performance keeping him firmly in the hunt. Bob Tasca III and Ron Capps, both seasoned veterans, have seen their odds drop significantly, indicating a need to find their form quickly if they want to stay in contention. J.R. Todd, despite a minor dip in his odds, cannot be counted out – his ability to bounce back and perform under pressure could make him a dark horse in the championship race.

Pro Stock

The Pro Stock category is shaping up to be a thrilling battle, with Greg Anderson and Erica Enders leading the charge. Anderson’s slight odds improvement reflects his consistent performance and the belief in his ability to add another championship to his impressive resume. Enders, despite a minor odds drop, remains a formidable opponent, and her experience and skill make her a constant threat. Dallas Glenn, the young gun who has been impressive all season, faces a growing challenge to maintain his position, while Aaron Stanfield’s significantly improved odds suggest he’s hitting his stride at the perfect time. This championship is far from decided, and fans can expect plenty of exciting twists and turns in the races ahead.

Pro Stock Moto

In Pro Stock Motorcycle, Gaige Herrera’s dominance has been unquestionable, but his recent loss to Chase Van Sant has added an intriguing new storyline to the championship narrative. Despite the setback, Herrera remains the overwhelming favorite, with his odds tightening reflecting the unwavering belief in his ability to bounce back stronger than ever. However, Van Sant’s historic victory has positioned him as Herrera’s most significant threat, with his greatly improved odds indicating a growing confidence in his championship potential. Matt Smith, a perennial contender, has seen his odds drop, suggesting he faces an uphill battle to close the gap on Herrera. As the season progresses, expect the intense rivalry between Herrera and Van Sant to take center stage, with both riders pushing each other to new heights in their pursuit of the championship.

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The NHRA Sonoma Nationals promise to deliver another weekend of heart-pounding action and intense competition. With top contenders looking to solidify their championship aspirations and outsiders aiming to shake up the standings, fans are in for a treat. Whether you’re placing bets or simply enjoying the spectacle of NHRA Drag Racing, the Sonoma Nationals are not to be missed. So gear up, place your bets responsibly, and get ready for an unforgettable experience in the heart of wine country.

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