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Best Bets: RAF 05 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Real American Freestyle wrestling is coming into 2026 hot with four Championship fights in the opening event. Titles aside, Colby Covington is the name of the night as the former UFC combatant debuts at RAF05 and is favored in the pre-event odds to get the better of Luke Rockhold. Other noteworthy battles see Yoel Romero face Bo Nickal for the light heavyweight belt, while Real Woods and Jordan Oliver meet for an epic rematch. Discover the matchups, odds, and daily fantasy sports projections for the first encounter on the calendar in our preview below.

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Schedule and How to Watch RAF 05

Wrestlers move south to Florida for the maiden RAF showcase of 2026 on Saturday, January 10. The lineup is stacked with accomplished combatants who are looking to start the year on the right foot when they enter the Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise. Bouts commence at 8:00 p.m. EST, with the Championship bouts coming your way later in the evening. Fans watching from afar can enjoy every pin and knockout live on Fox Nation.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Odds for RAF 05

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Matchup
Moneyline
Payout on $20
Colby Covington
-345
$25.80
Luke Rockhold
+239
$67.80
Yoel Romero
+173
$54.60
Bo Nickal
-238
$28.40
Mahamedkhabib Kadzimahamedau
+251
$70.20
Kyle Dake
-365
$25.48
Jordan Oliver
+127
$45.40
Real Woods
-169
$31.83
Austin DeSanto
+170
$54.00
Nathan Tomasello
-233
$28.58
Johnni DiJulius
+145
$49.00
Pat Lugo
-196
$30.20
Georgio Poullas
-507
$23.94
Keelon Jimison
+326
$85.20
Nate Jackson
+270
$74.00
Zahid Valencia
-400
$25.00
Lance Palmer
+239
$67.80
Armen Tsarukyan
-345
$25.80
Bo Bassett
-1250
$21.60
Cayden Henschel
+594
$138.80
Stephen Buchanan
-222
$29.01
Pat Downey
+163
$52.60
Mostafa Elders
+181
$56.20
Steve Mocco
-250
$28.00

Colby "Chaos" Covington vs Luke Rockhold - Cruiserweight Match

Two giants in the combat sport world switch Mixed Martial Arts for Real American Freestyle on Saturday. They go by the names of Colby Covington and Luke Rockhold, and the former debuts as the favorite to topple the latter. “Chaos” hasn’t fought competitively since he left the UFC at the back end of 2024, while Rockhold has kept busy with wrestling, boxing, and karate bouts. Covington boasts fewer defeats, falling only five times in his 17 career encounters across all formats. Rockhold, on the other hand, has prevailed in 72.7% of his career battles.

Yoel "Soldier of God" Romero vs Bo Nickal - Light Heavyweight Championship Match

The light heavyweight matchup we’ve all been asking for is here, after some hiccups late in 2024. Yoel Romero was meant to face Bo Nickal in RAF 04, but the latter had to withdraw in the build-up to the event. Romero went on to earn a technical fall over Patrick Downey to secure the interim title. Now, Nickal is ready for duty, making his second appearance in the promotion after beating Jacob Cadenas in RAF 01. He last fought in November in the UFC, scoring a third-round TKO and highlighting his ability to win in any format against any opponent.

Jordan Oliver vs Real Woods - Featherweight Championship Match

A fierce RAF rivalry is brewing between Jordan Oliver and Real Woods, who meet for the second time in just over a month. Oliver got the better of Woods in their first encounter, but left it up to the judges in RAF 03. That fight was Oliver’s debut in the promotion, and despite the impressive showing, bettors believe Woods has the edge leading into the rematch. Woods arrives in Florida with a 1-1 record after two encounters in the promotion, achieving a fall against Darrion Caldwell in RAF 01.

Expert Pick

Bo Nickal is a battle-hardened wrestler who knows how to get the job done with an 88.9% career success rate. We fancy his chances of overcoming the Yoel Romero factor in the Light Heavyweight Championship, given his youth and finishing ability. Nickal is priced at -238 and potentially paying out $28.40 on a $20.00 wager.

DFS

Takedowns

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Matchup
Fighter 1 Take Downs
Fighter 2 Take Downs
Colby Covington vs Luke Rockhold
2.5
1.5
Bo Nickal vs Yoel Romero
2.5
2.5
Kyle Dake vs M. Kadzimahamedau
3.5
1.5
Jordan Oliver vs Real Woods
1.5
1.5
Nathan Tomasello vs Austin Desanto
2.5
2.5
Pat Lugo vs Johnni Dijulius
2.5
1.5
Keelon Jimison vs Georgio Poullas
0.5
3.5
Zahid Valencia vs Nate Jackson
3.5
1.5
Lance Palmer vs Armen Tsarukyan
1.5
2.5
Bo Bassett vs Cayden Henschel
3.5
0.5
Pat Downey vs Stephen Buchanan
2.5
2.5
Mostafa Elders vs Steve Mocco
1.5
2.5

Over/Under Points

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Matchup
Fighter 1 O/U Points
Fighter 2 O/U Points
Colby Covington vs Luke Rockhold
9.5
4.5
Bo Nickal vs Yoel Romero
8.5
7.5
Kyle Dake vs Mahamedkhabib Kadzimahamedau
10.5
4.5
Jordan Oliver vs Real Woods
4.5
4.5
Nathan Tomasello vs Austin Desanto
5.5
7.5
Pat Lugo vs Johnni Dijulius
7.5
4.5
Keelon Jimison vs Georgio Poullas
2.5
11.5
Zahid Valencia vs Nate Jackson
13.5
6.5
Lance Palmer vs Armen Tsarukyan
5.5
8.5
Bo Bassett vs Cayden Henschel
14.5
3.5
Pat Downey vs Stephen Buchanan
8.5
6.5
Mostafa Elders vs Steve Mocco
2.5
6.5

Where to Bet on RAF 05

Now that you’re armed with the latest odds and expert picks for RAF 05, it’s time to place your bets. NXTbets has partnered with several reputable sportsbooks to ensure that you have a seamless betting experience. To bet or make picks on RAF 05 Covington vs. Rockhold, check out partnered sportsbooks. Simply follow the links to register an account, deposit funds, and start betting. 

1
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IN BONUS BETS IF YOU WIN
6369 other players have claimed this offer
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Offer Score

9.9
2
Global Sportsbook
BET $5, GET $200 IN BONUS BETS
Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 or greater.
2249 other players have claimed this offer
Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
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Offer Score

9.7
3
Hot & Trending
GET UP TO $1,500 PAID BACK IN BONUS BETS
FIRST BET OFFER
8690 other players have claimed this offer
Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
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Offer Score

9.9
4
Fan Favorite
Bet and Get up to $1000 No Sweat Bets
New Player Offer
4920 other players have claimed this offer
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Offer Score

9.8
5
Fan Favorite
Use Code RAF20X and Bet $1, Double Your Winnings
On Your Next 20 Wagers, Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost
6369 other players have claimed this offer
Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
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Offer Score

9.7
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