Denny Hamlin opens NASCAR playoffs as title favorite
NXTbets Pro | Published On: August 31, 2026
Regular-season edge
Denny Hamlin enters the Cup Series playoffs as the top seed and betting favorite, and he does so after a regular season that put him ahead of the pack in wins, laps led and points position. Hamlin won four races, at Las Vegas, Nashville, Michigan and Pocono, and he led the series with 880 laps led. He also opened the playoffs with a 25-point lead over Ryan Blaney. That is the kind of cushion that can shape the first round before the field settles in. Hamlin said in Daytona, “I think it starts with Darlington.” He also said a poor result there would trim his points cushion early in the playoffs. That gives the opener at Darlington Raceway extra weight for the driver who has controlled much of the regular season.
Playoff format resets
The format leaves little room to coast. The Cup Series playoffs begin with 16 drivers and a 10-race chase to the championship. The top 16 reset to a 100-point spread at the start of the Chase, which keeps the field bunched and makes every round matter. One clean result can move a driver up the ladder. One bad result can force a comeback. Hamlin said the rest of the schedule fits his style, and he singled out Martinsville and Homestead-Miami as tracks that suit him well. That matters because the title will be decided at Homestead-Miami Speedway. A driver has to survive Darlington, then keep pace through the rounds that follow, then arrive at the final race with enough speed to close the deal. Hamlin starts that path with the best combination of wins, laps led and points among the 16-driver field.
Contenders chase Hamlin
The chase behind Hamlin is deep. Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson and Joey Logano are among the leading contenders, and Logano brings fresh momentum after winning two races late in the season, even after falling as low as 20th earlier in the year. That kind of rebound gives him a lane back into the conversation. The playoff field also includes Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Bubba Wallace, a group that can shape the early rounds if any of them catch form at the right time. The long-shot tier is there too. Chris Buescher, Daniel Suarez, Carson Hocevar, Austin Cindric and Ryan Preece enter with longer odds, but they still carry enough talent to matter if the bracket breaks their way. That is what makes the first race important. Darlington starts the run, Hamlin starts on top and the rest of the field starts the push to catch him.
