The Japanese Grand Prix has the tightest track (Suzuka Circuit) of the season so far after races in Australia (Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit) and China (Shanghai International Circuit), and its fast corners result in fewer overtakes because of less braking.
Little Movement
The best number that shows the lack of overtakes on the Suzuka Circuit is that six of the last seven pole winners have won the race (Japan did not race in 2020 or ’21). Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas won in 2019 after starting in third behind Ferrari drivers Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc.
Since ’19, drivers who have started second have never won the race but have always finished on the podium besides Leclerc in ’19 when he started second and finished in sixth. Since 2015, 76% of top-five qualifiers have finished in the top five and 80% of top-three qualifiers finished in the top three.
Driver Shakeup
Red Bull shook up its team ahead of the upcoming race, swapping Japanese native Yuki Tsunoda for Liam Lawson alongside Max Verstappen.
Lawson, 23, crashed out in the Australian GP before qualifying for last place in the China Sprint and GP. He told reporters he was not expecting a change this early in the season but is focusing on “making the most of this opportunity now and still being in Formula 1.”
He’ll return to the Racing Bulls alongside rookie Isack Hadjar. Draft Kings offers a “Winner Without” market featuring the drivers outside of the big four and Lawson comes in at +285 to win out of that group.
Red Bull vs. McLaren
McLaren’s Lando Norris (Australian GP) and Oscar Piastri (Chinese GP) won the first two races of the season but look out for Verstappen this week.
Verstappen, whose 36 points this season trail Norris’ 44 for the top spot in the standings, finished second and fourth in the first two races, respectively. He’s won the last three Japanese GP and has started from the pole in each.
His odds to the podium are -125, but Red Bull’s double top-six finish comes in at +165.
Don’t Sleep on Ferrari
Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were each disqualified from the Chinese Grand Prix after a promising start.
Hamilton won the Sprint leading up to the race but qualified for fifth with Leclerc one spot behind in sixth. After then finishing fifth and sixth, respectively, they were disqualified. Leclerc’s car was underweight and Hamilton’s rear skid block did not meet the minimum thickness required.
Hamilton, though, is one of the most successful drivers in Japan. His five wins (most recently 2018) are the most among active drivers and one short of Michael Shumacher’s record.
Hamilton set the lap record in 2019 and had the fourth-fastest lap last year, although this will be his first time racing Suzuka with Ferrari.
Expert Pick
Leclerc at +650 is our favorite longshot to win the pole. His average race-to-qualifying ratio comes in at just over 1.5, which is second behind Carlos Sainz.
The high-speed spectacle of Formula 1 is set to light up the iconic streets of Miami once again as the paddock arrives for the 2024 Miami Grand Prix. After a pulsating start to the season, which has seen the prodigious Max Verstappen assert his dominance with four victories in five races, the championship fight shifts …
We are 13 rounds into the 2025 season, and McLaren is the proud owner of 76.92% of the victories up until Spa. Their leading driver, Oscar Piastri, guides the grid onto the Hungaroring as the favorite in the F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pre-event odds, ahead of his teammate Lando Norris. Charles Leclerc impressed last weekend …
There is more to Formula 1 betting than picking the event winner, helping bettors lower their risk while enjoying the F1 Australian Grand Prix. Pick a top 6 or 10 finisher, decide which team is more consistent, or the best finisher from one of the non-dominant teams Event Podium Event podium markets require you to …
At NXTbets, we understand the challenges new DFS players face. To lessen the burden for Formula 1 lovers in Kentucky, this article will extensively discuss how to get started on Formula 1 DFS gaming. Join us as we discuss how to sign up for and participate in DFS contests on Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks, effective DFS …
F1 Japanese Grand Prix Betting Nuggets & Trends | 5 Things You Need to Know
The Track
The Japanese Grand Prix has the tightest track (Suzuka Circuit) of the season so far after races in Australia (Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit) and China (Shanghai International Circuit), and its fast corners result in fewer overtakes because of less braking.
Little Movement
The best number that shows the lack of overtakes on the Suzuka Circuit is that six of the last seven pole winners have won the race (Japan did not race in 2020 or ’21). Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas won in 2019 after starting in third behind Ferrari drivers Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc.
Since ’19, drivers who have started second have never won the race but have always finished on the podium besides Leclerc in ’19 when he started second and finished in sixth. Since 2015, 76% of top-five qualifiers have finished in the top five and 80% of top-three qualifiers finished in the top three.
Driver Shakeup
Red Bull shook up its team ahead of the upcoming race, swapping Japanese native Yuki Tsunoda for Liam Lawson alongside Max Verstappen.
Lawson, 23, crashed out in the Australian GP before qualifying for last place in the China Sprint and GP. He told reporters he was not expecting a change this early in the season but is focusing on “making the most of this opportunity now and still being in Formula 1.”
He’ll return to the Racing Bulls alongside rookie Isack Hadjar. Draft Kings offers a “Winner Without” market featuring the drivers outside of the big four and Lawson comes in at +285 to win out of that group.
Red Bull vs. McLaren
McLaren’s Lando Norris (Australian GP) and Oscar Piastri (Chinese GP) won the first two races of the season but look out for Verstappen this week.
Verstappen, whose 36 points this season trail Norris’ 44 for the top spot in the standings, finished second and fourth in the first two races, respectively. He’s won the last three Japanese GP and has started from the pole in each.
His odds to the podium are -125, but Red Bull’s double top-six finish comes in at +165.
Don’t Sleep on Ferrari
Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were each disqualified from the Chinese Grand Prix after a promising start.
Hamilton won the Sprint leading up to the race but qualified for fifth with Leclerc one spot behind in sixth. After then finishing fifth and sixth, respectively, they were disqualified. Leclerc’s car was underweight and Hamilton’s rear skid block did not meet the minimum thickness required.
Hamilton, though, is one of the most successful drivers in Japan. His five wins (most recently 2018) are the most among active drivers and one short of Michael Shumacher’s record.
Hamilton set the lap record in 2019 and had the fourth-fastest lap last year, although this will be his first time racing Suzuka with Ferrari.
Expert Pick
Leclerc at +650 is our favorite longshot to win the pole. His average race-to-qualifying ratio comes in at just over 1.5, which is second behind Carlos Sainz.
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Related Posts
Best Bets: F1 Miami Grand Prix 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis
The high-speed spectacle of Formula 1 is set to light up the iconic streets of Miami once again as the paddock arrives for the 2024 Miami Grand Prix. After a pulsating start to the season, which has seen the prodigious Max Verstappen assert his dominance with four victories in five races, the championship fight shifts …
Best Bets: F1 Hungarian Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis
We are 13 rounds into the 2025 season, and McLaren is the proud owner of 76.92% of the victories up until Spa. Their leading driver, Oscar Piastri, guides the grid onto the Hungaroring as the favorite in the F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pre-event odds, ahead of his teammate Lando Norris. Charles Leclerc impressed last weekend …
Unique F1 Betting Markets on NXTbets
There is more to Formula 1 betting than picking the event winner, helping bettors lower their risk while enjoying the F1 Australian Grand Prix. Pick a top 6 or 10 finisher, decide which team is more consistent, or the best finisher from one of the non-dominant teams Event Podium Event podium markets require you to …
How to Play Formula 1 DFS in Kentucky
At NXTbets, we understand the challenges new DFS players face. To lessen the burden for Formula 1 lovers in Kentucky, this article will extensively discuss how to get started on Formula 1 DFS gaming. Join us as we discuss how to sign up for and participate in DFS contests on Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks, effective DFS …