The Japanese Grand Prix has the tightest track (Suzuka Circuit) of the season so far after races in Australia (Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit) and China (Shanghai International Circuit), and its fast corners result in fewer overtakes because of less braking.
Little Movement
The best number that shows the lack of overtakes on the Suzuka Circuit is that six of the last seven pole winners have won the race (Japan did not race in 2020 or ’21). Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas won in 2019 after starting in third behind Ferrari drivers Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc.
Since ’19, drivers who have started second have never won the race but have always finished on the podium besides Leclerc in ’19 when he started second and finished in sixth. Since 2015, 76% of top-five qualifiers have finished in the top five and 80% of top-three qualifiers finished in the top three.
Driver Shakeup
Red Bull shook up its team ahead of the upcoming race, swapping Japanese native Yuki Tsunoda for Liam Lawson alongside Max Verstappen.
Lawson, 23, crashed out in the Australian GP before qualifying for last place in the China Sprint and GP. He told reporters he was not expecting a change this early in the season but is focusing on “making the most of this opportunity now and still being in Formula 1.”
He’ll return to the Racing Bulls alongside rookie Isack Hadjar. Draft Kings offers a “Winner Without” market featuring the drivers outside of the big four and Lawson comes in at +285 to win out of that group.
Red Bull vs. McLaren
McLaren’s Lando Norris (Australian GP) and Oscar Piastri (Chinese GP) won the first two races of the season but look out for Verstappen this week.
Verstappen, whose 36 points this season trail Norris’ 44 for the top spot in the standings, finished second and fourth in the first two races, respectively. He’s won the last three Japanese GP and has started from the pole in each.
His odds to the podium are -125, but Red Bull’s double top-six finish comes in at +165.
Don’t Sleep on Ferrari
Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were each disqualified from the Chinese Grand Prix after a promising start.
Hamilton won the Sprint leading up to the race but qualified for fifth with Leclerc one spot behind in sixth. After then finishing fifth and sixth, respectively, they were disqualified. Leclerc’s car was underweight and Hamilton’s rear skid block did not meet the minimum thickness required.
Hamilton, though, is one of the most successful drivers in Japan. His five wins (most recently 2018) are the most among active drivers and one short of Michael Shumacher’s record.
Hamilton set the lap record in 2019 and had the fourth-fastest lap last year, although this will be his first time racing Suzuka with Ferrari.
Expert Pick
Leclerc at +650 is our favorite longshot to win the pole. His average race-to-qualifying ratio comes in at just over 1.5, which is second behind Carlos Sainz.
Your heart races as Max Verstappen screeches around the bend toward the finish line. You aren’t sure whether the thunder in your ears is because the crowd is going wild or because you have a bet riding on Verstappen crossing the finish line first. This thrilling adventure can be yours from the comfort of your …
The world’s premier motorsport Championship prepares for a Texas takeover this weekend in the 19th race of the season. McLaren drives onto the Circuit of the Americas as the 2025 Constructors’ Champions, despite some tensions between their two star drivers. Oscar Piastri has led the odds for most of the campaign, but starts in a …
Are you a Texan motorsport enthusiast looking for a new Formula 1 experience? We’ve got you covered! NXTbets is a leading platform for individuals looking for betting resources. We provide real-time insight, data, and picks, helping sports fans and enthusiasts make informed decisions. Among our main focus areas is Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), a new gaming alternative open …
Did you know that you can play Formula 1 DFS in Oklahoma? Unlike traditional fantasy sports, DFS requires you to focus on single events and predict driver performances against predetermined stats. This gameplay is strategic and a fun way to enjoy the Formula 1 excitement while competing for real money. Playing Formula 1 DFS in …
F1 Japanese Grand Prix Betting Nuggets & Trends | 5 Things You Need to Know
The Track
The Japanese Grand Prix has the tightest track (Suzuka Circuit) of the season so far after races in Australia (Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit) and China (Shanghai International Circuit), and its fast corners result in fewer overtakes because of less braking.
Little Movement
The best number that shows the lack of overtakes on the Suzuka Circuit is that six of the last seven pole winners have won the race (Japan did not race in 2020 or ’21). Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas won in 2019 after starting in third behind Ferrari drivers Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc.
Since ’19, drivers who have started second have never won the race but have always finished on the podium besides Leclerc in ’19 when he started second and finished in sixth. Since 2015, 76% of top-five qualifiers have finished in the top five and 80% of top-three qualifiers finished in the top three.
Driver Shakeup
Red Bull shook up its team ahead of the upcoming race, swapping Japanese native Yuki Tsunoda for Liam Lawson alongside Max Verstappen.
Lawson, 23, crashed out in the Australian GP before qualifying for last place in the China Sprint and GP. He told reporters he was not expecting a change this early in the season but is focusing on “making the most of this opportunity now and still being in Formula 1.”
He’ll return to the Racing Bulls alongside rookie Isack Hadjar. Draft Kings offers a “Winner Without” market featuring the drivers outside of the big four and Lawson comes in at +285 to win out of that group.
Red Bull vs. McLaren
McLaren’s Lando Norris (Australian GP) and Oscar Piastri (Chinese GP) won the first two races of the season but look out for Verstappen this week.
Verstappen, whose 36 points this season trail Norris’ 44 for the top spot in the standings, finished second and fourth in the first two races, respectively. He’s won the last three Japanese GP and has started from the pole in each.
His odds to the podium are -125, but Red Bull’s double top-six finish comes in at +165.
Don’t Sleep on Ferrari
Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were each disqualified from the Chinese Grand Prix after a promising start.
Hamilton won the Sprint leading up to the race but qualified for fifth with Leclerc one spot behind in sixth. After then finishing fifth and sixth, respectively, they were disqualified. Leclerc’s car was underweight and Hamilton’s rear skid block did not meet the minimum thickness required.
Hamilton, though, is one of the most successful drivers in Japan. His five wins (most recently 2018) are the most among active drivers and one short of Michael Shumacher’s record.
Hamilton set the lap record in 2019 and had the fourth-fastest lap last year, although this will be his first time racing Suzuka with Ferrari.
Expert Pick
Leclerc at +650 is our favorite longshot to win the pole. His average race-to-qualifying ratio comes in at just over 1.5, which is second behind Carlos Sainz.
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