Best Bets: 2024 Lexus WSL Finals – Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Schedule and How to Watch the 2024 Lexus WSL Finals

The 2024 WSL Finals will be held on the best day of waves between Friday, September 6, and Saturday, September 14, at the iconic break of Lower Trestles in San Clemente, California. The event will be broadcast live on WorldSurfLeague.com and the free WSL app, with additional coverage available through the WSL’s broadcast partners. Fans can tune in to witness the crowning of the 2024 World Champions in both the men’s and women’s divisions.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for 2024 Lexus WSL Finals – Men’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Men’s Division

In the men’s division, John John Florence (-160) has reemerged as the defining figure of the 2024 season. After years of battling injuries that threatened to derail his career, Florence has orchestrated an extraordinary comeback. His victory at the El Salvador Pro in June was a masterclass in progressive surfing, showcasing his ability to blend powerful turns, technical airs, and strategic heat management. But it’s his consistency throughout the season, with runner-up finishes at Pipeline, Margaret River, and Teahupo’o, that sets him apart as the frontrunner for a third world title. He’s no longer just the explosive young prodigy known for threading impossible barrels; he’s a calculated competitor who excels in diverse conditions. Heading into Lower Trestles, a wave that suits his mix of power and aerial skill, Florence is widely considered the favorite. If he can maintain his form, there’s a strong chance he will reclaim his spot atop the surfing world. John John’s career resume already includes 9 CT victories and two world titles before the age of 25, and now, at 31, he seems poised to add another to his already illustrious legacy.

Nipping at Florence’s heels is the indomitable Jack Robinson (+380). The powerful West Australian has been on a tear in 2024, notching wins at Sunset Beach and Margaret River, two of the tour’s most challenging stops. Robinson’s ability to generate jaw-dropping speed and power in even the most unforgiving conditions has seen him emerge as a genuine title threat. His Semi-Finals finish in Fiji, where he showcased his mastery of left-hand barrels, indicates that he may be peaking at the perfect time. Robinson, often celebrated for his fearless approach and talent in waves of consequence, honed his craft in the powerful breaks of Western Australia. If Lower Trestles delivers sizable surf, his aggressive rail work could pose a serious threat to Florence. And with generous odds, he’s a smart pick for savvy bettors looking for a high-value upset.

Rounding out the top picks is Griffin Colapinto (+381), and he brings with him a unique narrative. As a local from San Clemente, Colapinto has been surfing Trestles since he was a child, giving him an intimate understanding of the wave’s nuances. 2024 has been a breakthrough year for Colapinto, with strong results at Bells Beach and the Rio Pro, followed by big wins in Portugal and Fiji. His ability to blend innovative aerial maneuvers with tactical heat surfing has made him one of the most versatile surfers on tour. With the hometown crowd behind him, he could have the psychological edge he needs to become the first Californian world champion since Tom Curren in 1990. For Colapinto, this season feels like the culmination of years of potential waiting to explode into a career-defining moment

Outsider Picks – Men’s Division

While the top contenders have dominated the headlines, there are a few dangerous outsiders lurking in the shadows. In the men’s draw, 2019 world champion Italo Ferreira (+1050) looms as a serious threat. The Brazilian dynamo has endured an up-and-down season marked by flashes of brilliance and uncharacteristic early exits. However, his victories at the Tahiti Pro and the Rio Pro served notice that he’s still one of the most explosive competitors on Tour. If Ferreira can harness his boundless energy and feed off the crowd’s enthusiasm at Lowers, his high-flying aerial attack and relentless competitive drive could propel him to a second world title.

Joining Ferreira as a men’s outsider is Australian powerhouse Ethan Ewing (+1141). A quiet achiever in 2024, Ewing has consistently reached the latter rounds of events without quite breaking through for a victory. However, his third-place finish in Fiji, where he showcased his mastery of powerful left-hand barrels, suggests that he’s hitting his stride at the perfect time. His classic, powerful style—reminiscent of Andy Irons—suits Trestles well, particularly if the waves line up for open-face carving. Ewing may not have the headline-grabbing results of Florence or Robinson, but his potential to upset the balance at Trestles makes him one to watch.

Expert Pick for Finals – Men’s Division

On the men’s side, we’re backing John John Florence to cap off his remarkable comeback season with a third world title. With a peerless blend of power, creativity, and tube-riding prowess, Florence has the arsenal to win in any conditions. If he can maintain the steely focus and competitive drive that have defined his 2024 campaign, he’ll be difficult to stop.

Head-to-Head Picks – Men’s Division

In the men’s head-to-head matchup, Italo Ferreira (-124) gets the slight edge over Ethan Ewing (-107). Ferreira’s explosive surfing and aerial wizardry make him a constant threat, especially if he finds his rhythm early. However, Ewing’s powerful rail game and recent success at Teahupo’o suggest he shouldn’t be underestimated.

Best Bets and Picks for the 2024 Lexus WSL Finals – Women’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Women’s Division

At the forefront of the women’s division is Caitlin Simmers (-136), the 18-year-old phenom who has stunned the surfing world throughout 2024. With standout victories at Pipeline, Bells Beach and the Rio Pro, Simmers has demonstrated a rare blend of boldness and technical prowess that belies her age. Her ability to dominate in heavy waves has drawn comparisons to legends like Layne Beachley. Now sitting as the No. 1 seed for the WSL Finals, Simmers has the opportunity to become the youngest women’s world champion. Her challenge will be to maintain composure under immense pressure, but if she can translate her raw talent into consistent performances at Lower Trestles, she is the clear favorite to claim the crown.

Seeking to spoil Simmers’ fairytale run is Olympic gold medalist Caroline Marks (+193), the newly crowned Olympic gold medalist who has proven her big-moment credentials time and again. A product of the ultra-competitive Florida scene, Marks has harnessed her explosive power and competitive fire to devastating effect in 2024. Her victory in the cauldron of Teahupo’o, where she held her nerve in some of the heaviest waves ever seen in women’s competition, was a testament to her big-match temperament. Now heading into the WSL Finals, the opportunity to cap off an already remarkable year looms large. Lower Trestles’ steep takeoffs and open faces could provide the perfect canvas for Marks’ high-octane approach. If she can maintain her momentum, we might witness Marks follow in Carissa Moore’s footsteps to accomplish a historic double: Olympic gold and a world title in a single, unforgettable season.

Costa Rican trailblazer Brisa Hennessy (+520) completes the women’s top picks. A beacon of progression and style, Hennessy has taken her surfing to new heights in 2024, with a string of head-turning performances and no complete event finishes lower than 5th. Her smooth, stylish approach belies a ruthless competitive streak and a steely determination to succeed. If Hennessy can find her flow at Lowers and ride the wave of momentum from her recent performances, she could become the first Costa Rican world champion and inspire a new generation of Latin surfers.

Outsider Picks – Women’s Division

Among the dark horses is Tatiana Weston-Webb (+1508), the Brazilian charger who took home the silver medal at the 2024 Olympics after a stellar run at Teahupo’o. A perennial contender with a runner-up finish in 2021 and a string of strong results in 2024, Weston-Webb has the experience and competitive mettle to go all the way. Her 2nd place finish in Fiji will give her plenty of momentum heading into the WSL Finals. If Weston-Webb can ride a wave of confidence and unleash her devastating backhand attack, she could finally break through for a long-awaited maiden title.

Completing the women’s outsider picks is Australian prodigy Molly Picklum (+1601). The 21-year-old has been a revelation in 2024, announcing her arrival with a stunning victory at Sunset Beach and backing it up with a string of impressive performances. Picklum’s blend of raw power and progressive flair has drawn comparisons to compatriot Stephanie Gilmore. If she can handle the pressure of the WSL Finals and find her groove in the rippable walls of Lowers, Picklum could cap off her breakout year with an against-the-odds world title.

Expert Pick for the 2024 Lexus WSL Finals – Women’s Division

For the women, we’re predicting a coming-of-age victory for Caitlin Simmers. The teenage phenom has taken the tour by storm in her sophomore year, showcasing a level of poise and polish that belies her age. With a fearless approach in heavy surf and an uncanny ability to perform under pressure, Simmers has all the attributes of a future multiple world champion. A victory at Lowers would be a fitting coronation for surfing’s new queen and a sign of even greater things to come.

Head-to-Head Picks – Women’s Division

In the women’s Head-to-Head, Tatiana Weston-Webb (-116) and Molly Picklum (-114) are locked in a near pick’em contest. Weston-Webb’s experience and success in heavy waves could prove invaluable if the conditions get serious. That said, Picklum’s rapid rise and fearless approach have made her a fan favorite, and her backhand attack could be the difference-maker at Lowers.

Where to Bet on the Lexus WSL Finals 2024

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As we count down the days to the 2024 WSL Finals, the anticipation is reaching a fever pitch. With so many compelling storylines and talented surfers in contention, this is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and unpredictable Finals in recent memory. So study the odds, lock in your bets, and get ready to witness surfing history unfold at Lower Trestles – because when the first horn sounds, all bets are off.

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